Dec 22: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast injure 16, including 4 children. Russia attacked the oblast 82 times, using artillery, mortars, drones, aircraft, tanks, and multiple-launch rocket systems.
Russian strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injures 2. Russia launched drones and artillery attacks against the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Dec. 20, injuring two men, Governor Serhii Lysak reported. The two victims, aged 21 and 22, were reportedly wounded in a drone strike against Nikopol. They did not require hospitalization, Lysak noted.
Russian aerial bombs on Thursday targeted the territories of two coalmines in Ukraine’s eastern town of Toretsk, Donetsk region, killing three and injuring at least five civilians on Thursday, the interior minister said.
Russian occupation thugs seizing Ukrainian history books. Re-writing history.
Ukrainian hackers hit Russian utility company. The Ukrainian Blackjack hacker group carried out a cyber attack against Rosvodokanal, a Russian water utility company, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Dec. 20, citing undisclosed law enforcement sources. The attack, targeting Rosvodkanal's digital infrastructure, was likely supported by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the sources told Ukrainska Pravda. They encrypted 6000 computers and deleted 50TB of data, backups and services.
Oleksandr Komarov, CEO of Kyivstar, on Facebook. "Kyivstar has recovered from an unprecedented cyberattack.
“All basic services are available throughout Ukraine. In order to express our gratitude for your support and patience, the company cancels the next tariff fee for all its customers.”
Up-date: the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has put sanctioned Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman on the wanted list, reported by Skhemy (Schemes, a Radio Liberty project focused on investigations) with reference to a notice on the website of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Fridman is wanted on charges under the article "Financing of actions committed with the aim of forcibly changing or overthrowing the constitutional order or seizing state power, or changing the borders of the territory or state border of Ukraine".
According to the SSU, since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, Fridman has injected about 2 billion roubles (roughly US$20.7 million) into several military plants belonging to the aggressor country. Among them are the Tula Cartridge Plant, which produces ammunition, and the Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant named after Yalamov, which manufactures high-tech equipment for Russian combat aircraft and helicopters.
Fridman and Aven left Russia after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, they were placed under EU and UK sanctions.
They have attempted to get the sanctions lifted from them in Europe. They succeeded in doing so in the UK, where the authorities have issued at least 82 licences to sanctioned Russian oligarchs "for personal expenses" of up to US$1 million a year, which the Russians can spend on "basic needs" such as chauffeurs, cooks and cleaners.
Combat Situation Update
Military: Russia moves up to 2 km near Avdiivka in 2 months, loses 20,000 soldiers. Russian forces advanced between one and half and two kilometers in some areas of the Avdiivka sector at the cost of around 20,000 killed and wounded, Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesman for the Tavria group of forces, said on Dec. 20.
"In a little more than two months... the enemy lost almost 25,000 men dead and wounded, about 200 tanks, and over 400 armored vehicles in the Tavria group's area of responsibility in Donetsk Oblast."
Around 80% of these figures concern the Avdiivka direction, the spokesperson said.
Secretary of the National Security Council Oleksiy Danilov said that due to an active increase of the production of artillery in Ukraine, and by its allies, good news can be expected in the near future.
"You know that today production is underway in partner countries as well. Moreover, I cannot reveal much information about what is happening on the territory of our country. But I will give a small spoiler: in the near future we will have very pleasant news in this regard," he emphasized.
Russian soldiers preparing for an attack near Avdiivka.
Russia’s space comms center, military unit hit in Crimea. On December 20, two strikes affected Russian military units in the temporarily occupied Crimea, as a result of which a Russian border guard was injured and equipment was damaged, including a satellite antenna.
Behind the Lines
Chinese company planning to build tunnel to Crimea added to list of war sponsors. The National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP) has added China's second largest state-owned construction company, China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), to the list of international sponsors of the war. It continues to work in Russia, building subways, bridges, and highways.
Russia’s top propagandists must be tried for incitement to genocide – disinfo watchdog. Research by the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security Council of Ukraine testifies that Russia’s top propagandists must be held accountable for inciting genocide, since the Russian military is guided by the narratives they hear in Russian media.
Russia commits war crime compelling Ukrainians in occupied areas into military – HRW. Russian authorities continue to conscript Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas or otherwise try to forcibly enlist them, including those in detention, into the Russian military.
U.S. Department of State on Hungary’s new Sovereign Defence Authority:
The United States is concerned by the Hungarian government’s decision today to enact a new law which equips the Hungarian government with draconian tools that can be used to intimidate and punish those with views not shared by the ruling party. The “Sovereign Defense Authority” could be used to subject Hungarian citizens, businesses, and organizations to intrusive investigations with no judicial oversight, even if they have had no contact with or support from a foreign government or foreign entity. This new law is inconsistent with our shared values of democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law.
SBU puts Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman on wanted list. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) added Russian-Israeli business tycoon Mikhail Fridman to Ukraine's wanted list, according to the Interior Ministry's website. Fridman was charged by the SBU on Sept. 5 for helping to finance Russia's war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Putin administration and Russia’s Defense Ministry have issued new military recruitment quotas to regional officials in 2024, sources told the newsletter Faridaily, claiming that the Kremlin seeks to add at least 400,000 more contract soldiers next year. This number of men represents the same recruitment feat the authorities managed in 2023, according to Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, but regional officials are expected to find the task far harder in 2024, given shortages of likely candidates. Experts say Russia’s ability to attract or quietly coerce contract soldiers and volunteers is key to avoiding or delaying a second round of mobilization.
Russian enlistment officers handed out military summonses at a naturalization ceremony in St. Petersburg. Police said that 11 new Russian citizens from “neighboring countries” were given orders to report for military registration after swearing “to protect the freedom and independence of the Russian Federation.” In recent months, there have been multiple reports of police raids during which migrants who are naturalized Russian citizens have been given draft notices or military summonses.
North Korea has delivered over 1000, and recently even more, containers of military equipment and ammunition to Russia, Julianne Smith, Permanent US Representative to NATO said in a briefing.
Bloomberg: Tankers carrying 5 million barrels of Russian oil fail to reach India. Six vessels carrying almost 5 million barrels of Russian oil failed to reach their destinations in India, some idling kilometers off the coast for weeks without providing a reason, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 20. Recent U.S. sanctions targeting the violators of the $60-per-barrel price cap could partially be the reason, the news outlet speculated.
Rossiya Airlines has canceled planned flights this week to Beijing from Krasnoyarsk, Vladivostok, and Irkustsk after failing to reach the necessary arrival and service agreements with Beijing Daxing International Airport. The airline has not offered further details about why it couldn’t come to terms with the Chinese airport.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC- “Don’t expect life to get any easier.”
From today's Russian newspapers: "Don't expect life to get any easier. Have no illusions." On rising inflation: "Now when people go to the shops they've having to work out if they can afford today what they bought last week."
Despite Western sanctions, companies in 11 countries are still supplying Russia with the equipment and goods necessary to build tanks and other weapons, say investigative journalists at The Insider, who discovered such exports from businesses in Italy, the Baltic states, Germany, South Korean, Japan, Serbia, Austria, Finland, and the United States. Sold equipment includes high-precision grinding machines, rotating pulleys and brackets, polishing powder, and more. The Insider also learned that the board chairman and former owner of Unimatic, a Russian defense contractor and importer, received British citizenship in 2022, after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Proekt studied the leaked financial records of 3 groups that manufacture regime-affirming pubic commentary, and estimated that the Kremlin has spent in recent years at least 1.1 billion rubles ($12.1 million) in payments to individuals for “expert and consulting services.” The organizations are the Expert Institute of Social Research, the Civil Society Development Foundation, and the Da-Tim marketing agency.
Russia has established “comprehensive interaction” with North Korea and is continuing its course of “strategic partnership” with India and China, the chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, told a briefing of foreign military attaches on Thursday. He said Nato’s activity in eastern Europe and the “accelerated integration” of Sweden and Finland into the US-defence alliance were negatively affecting the situation in Europe, “with prospects for increased confrontation”, Reuters reports.
I hope there’s more of this:
Putin holds 'private' talks with Kazakhstan's ex-president. Russian leader Vladimir Putin held "absolutely private" talks with the former president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Dec. 20. (Me: more on this in a future post. We’re working on it. We should keep an eye on it.)
"I will block Ukraine's accession to NATO, as it will be the beginning of the Third World War. As long as I have the opportunity to influence the Slovak political scene, I will use the right to veto such a decision," Prime Minister of Slovakia Fico said.
The Hungarian authorities fear that if Ukraine becomes a member of the European Union, all Central European aid from the bloc will go to Ukraine. Orban reminded that never before has a country in a state of war wanted to join the European Union. (Me: he’s a thief.)
Allied Support
The state budget of Ukraine received about $950 million from Japan as part of World Bank projects for recovery and social protection. The funds will be directed to reimburse the expenses of the state budget of Ukraine for urgent and priority needs.
EU countries preparing to stop Russian gas transit through Ukraine - European Commissioner. In exactly one year, the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will expire, so EU member states that still consume Russian gas should prepare for changes in the market and reduce their consumption of Russian liquefied and pipeline gas.
Ukraine receives over $160 million in EU grants for recovery efforts. Ukraine received 150 million euros ($164.5 million) in EU grants under the Support to Ukraine's Fast Recovery financing agreement, the Ukrainian Finance Ministry announced on Dec. 20.
"Grant funding will support priority measures in restoring critical infrastructure damaged by Russian aggression, namely transport, communal facilities and services, social infrastructure, and residential areas," Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said.
Ukraine has received the last €1.5bn (£1.3bn) euro tranche from the 18 billion package from the European Union, prime minister Denys Shmyhal said on Thursday.
Ukraine, 10 partner countries launch new cybersecurity mechanism. Ukraine and 10 partner countries established on Dec. 20 the Tallinn mechanism on cybersecurity to help protect Ukraine against cyber threats.
Germany will provide an additional €88.5m euros (£76.6m) to help strengthen the resilience of the Ukrainian energy system as Russia targets its infrastructure, the foreign and economy ministries said in a joint statement on Thursday. The economy ministry is contributing €54.3m euros (£47m) via the state-owned bank KfW and the foreign ministry €34.2m euros (£29.6m) to the Ukraine energy support fund, the statement said, Reuters reports.
Switzerland announces $13 million in winter aid for Ukraine. Switzerland announced a new CHF 11.5 million ($13.3 million) winter aid package for Ukraine on Dec. 20, bringing the total of Switzerland's winter assistance to Ukraine to around CHF 26 million ($30 million).
The US Congress left Washington this week for an extended holiday break with several key issues unsettled, including emergency aid for Ukraine and tighter border security, setting the stage for a complicated January. Lawmakers will face two government-shutdown deadlines and continue efforts to write one piece of legislation that will both fund Ukraine’s defense against Russia and slow the flow of migrants through the US-Mexico border.
White House hopes Ukraine aid bill to pass in January.
The White House hopes that Congress will pass a funding request containing $61 billion for Ukraine in January to maintain support for Kyiv amid Russia's invasion, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Dec. 20.
"We've got one more package that we can do before the end of the month. And as you know it takes some days, sometimes weeks, for some of that material to get to Ukraine," Kirby said.
"So it's really important that in January, we can move forward with some kind of supplemental funding for them (Ukraine) because the fighting is not gonna stop," the official noted, drawing attention to an increased Russian activity near Avdiivka.
Czech association Skupina D, of which its patron is Czech Army general Karel Řehka, wants to provide 10.000 FPV drones to the Ukrainian army. In the coming days, they will launch a public fundraiser called Nemesis to provide for the necessary funds.
Ukraine will receive 50 ambulances from the United Arab Emirates, the Ministry of Health reports. The transfer takes place with the assistance of the Embassy of Ukraine in the UAE. The first batch of 14 ambulances has already been delivered to Ukraine.
Razom 4 Ukraine: Here’s where things stand on Congress & U.S. aid to Ukraine.
1. House and Senate are leaving until January w/o a deal to provide critical aid to Ukraine.
2. The U.S. will run out of funding for Ukraine aid this month. What does this mean and where do we go from here?
The supplemental funding bill currently before Congress includes immigration policy, which is creating steep divisions in Congress. Senate leadership say they are committed to a deal. We must keep the pressure on them to make one.
Next month in Congress promises to be tougher, messier & noisier w/ presidential primaries starting & another government shutdown crisis looming. Aid to Ukraine will face formidable headwinds to passing—keeping the pressure on Congress will be even more important.
Meanwhile, the U.S. says it can only deliver 1 more shipment of aid to Ukraine with current funds. Until Congress approves more, America will have to end meaningful support for Ukrainian troops, who are already facing ammunition shortages.
We’re giving Russia the upper-hand by withholding aid from Ukraine when it’s needed most. Congress must act—and so must the White House, which can send more long-range weapons like ATACMS. Ukraine has already used them to devastating effect.
Putin is cheering on US dysfunction as Congress dithers over whether to help Ukraine. Russia is counting on Americans being too divided to stand up to his invasion of Europe—if we hand him a win now, the consequences for U.S. security will be dire.
So what can you do?
1. Keep the pressure on Congress. When they return from the holidays, call your Representative and Senators, and do it regularly. Tell them the U.S. cannot back down and let Russia win.
2. Keep talking about Ukraine. Read news about Ukraine. Tell your friends/family to call Congress. Attend rallies for the anniversary of the invasion on 2/24. Send letters to local newspapers. Fly a Ukrainian flag. Remind people the war continues & we need their support.
3. Donate: orgs like ours need your help this winter. Along with our work delivering humanitarian aid, we have a dedicated Advocacy team working tirelessly to mobilize support & pressure Congress. The stakes are high—help us keep up the fight: https://razomforukraine.org/donate
Ukraine will win. Our allies in Europe and Asia are stepping up, and we need to help. U.S. support is critical—and Congress handing Putin a win would be inexcusable. Contact info for Congress: http://bit.ly/UASupplemental
Dec 21: A shooter in Prague at the University: students hiding on ledge during mass shooting at Charles University in Prague. A gunman opened fire on students in the Charles University building on Jan Palach Square. According to preliminary reports, 15 people were killed and at least 20 others were injured. The Czech Interior Minister has confirmed a gunman, David Kozak, is dead.
Me: this is utterly shocking for me. I’ve been to Prague several times and it’s one of the most peaceful cities in Europe.
