Dec 24 The Saturday Edition
Readings and Posts: Avdeeva Chakrabortty Melnyk Partridge Vadym NYTBucha EuropeanValues Lucas Cooper GCHQ Tucker Mason
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
I’ve put together a few articles and posts for your reading. Unless there is breaking news, I’ll leave you to your Holiday Season preparations.
I’ve got to make a few pans of lasagne. The ragu is superb, and I’m pulling out the ingredients for the assembly stage.
Aditya Chakrabortty, Here’s the essential skill for assessing our politics: knowing the difference between lies and bullshit- The Guardian
The task Frankfurt sets himself is to define bullshit. What it is not, he argues, is lying. Both misrepresent the truth, but with entirely different intentions. The liar is “someone who deliberately promulgates a falsehood”. He or she knows the truth or could lay hands on it – but they certainly aren’t giving it to you. The bullshitter, on the other hand, “does not care whether the things he says describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up, to suit his purpose.” Bullshitters couldn’t give two hoots about the truth. They just want a story.
Chris Partridge, US Patriot missiles will comfort Kyiv and alarm Moscow- BBC News
They're not a silver bullet, but they are extremely capable, effective and expensive. One Patriot missile costs around $3m - three times the cost of a missile in a NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System). Two NASAM systems have been in operation in Ukraine for several weeks.
The new Patriot missile battery "will be a critical asset to defend the Ukrainian people against Russia's barbaric attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure", the White House said in a briefing.
Ranges to target reportedly vary between 40km to 160km (100 miles), depending on the type of missile used. And they are what's termed "point defence" systems: generally designed to defend particular areas such as cities or important infrastructures - in other words high-value assets.
It is likely to be placed around a high value asset or key city for additional protection. We will not know where, as once Western systems are in Ukrainian hands they effectively become Ukrainian property, under the command of the country's military.
Their Final Moments: Victims of a Russian Atrocity in Bucha- NYT
When the war in Ukraine began, neighbors and residents of Bucha decided to flee with their families, protect their loved ones and search for food. Russian soldiers killed them for it.
They were mothers, fathers, children and grandparents. Their lives became intertwined by a tragic fate: For weeks in March, their bodies would lie along a single street in Bucha.
The photographs of these victims, published widely after Bucha was liberated, became emblematic of the indiscriminate way Russia would wage war in towns and cities across the country.
Russian officials denied that their soldiers killed civilians in Bucha. They claimed that the images of the bodies were “fake”.
The New York Times has identified 36 of the victims along Yablunska Street. We spoke to dozens of family members, friends and colleagues in Bucha to identify the people in the photographs — and used satellite imagery, cellphone videos, social media posts and text messages to retrace their final moments.
Their stories reveal how simple acts of survival — and a turn down a single street — put them in the path of their Russian killers.
Volodymyr Ruchkovskyi needed to do one last thing before he could leave Bucha.
His father, who was staying behind, was without food and electricity, so he brought him groceries and said one last goodbye.
On the drive back, Volodymyr realized the Ukrainian checkpoint guards who had been stationed near his home since the start of the war were no longer there. The 50-year-old elevator technician and his partner, Olena, packed their bags, pulled out of the driveway and drove west.
Volodymyr didn’t know that the occupation of Bucha had just begun, or that he was now driving toward a convoy of Russian forces.
Just before 1 p.m., Russian soldiers shot at his car, forcing him to crash into a tree. Olena was unable to pull Volodymyr’s unconscious body out of the vehicle. She had no choice but to flee for her life.
Volodymyr’s family hoped that he may still be alive. But when they asked friends and neighbors to help in their search, no one could find him.
His burned remains were found inside the car weeks later.
Edward Lucas, Three Fronts- CEPA
But political processes have their own momentum. Thirty years ago, Western leaders were much more concerned about the disorderly collapse of the Soviet Union than they were about freedom for the captive nations. Readers may remember President George HW Bush’s infamous “Chicken Kiev” speech in 1991, denouncing Ukraine’s struggle for independence. But even American presidents can find history disobedient. The Soviet Union collapsed three weeks later.
That is why the third front in this war — the one raging in Moscow — matters most of all. Putin is implicitly blaming his generals for the loss of Kherson. But that belies his claim to be the country’s real boss. The carefully crafted official narrative about the war is in shreds. Talkshow hosts, once reverential, are openly cynical or despairing. Hardliners — the real danger for Putin — are caustic. Blame for the war must land somewhere soon, and it will do so with devastating effects.
In this investigation, I learned explosive details on what Canadian intelligence understands about the PRC's complex, vast and concealed funding and logistical support mechanisms for Canadian election candidates, per many CSIS investigations, focused on the GTA.
It's important to state, as other media or commenters attempt to follow this file/story. The focus of Canadian intelligence investigations is Xi Jinping's United Front Work Department. This global network presents an election interference capacity and threat unique to the PRC.
Entitled “PRC Foreign Interference: 2019 Elections,” the PCO document provides a rare view into Canadian intelligence’s understanding of the complex, obscure mechanisms underlying China’s efforts to support Beijing’s chosen Canadian election candidates.
It alleges that Chinese consulate officials “targeted” at least 11 candidates in the Greater Toronto Area in the October 2019 contest — and that Beijing’s objective was to “influence government officials into taking specific stances on China’s issues of interest.”
The importance of reporting the United Front Work Department's role in this Canadian election interference story, is that the UFWD provides a large and varied range of proxies or agents, some under the direct guidance of PRC intelligence officials. This is to conceal funding.
Details reviewed from the February 2020 Privy Council Office intelligence assessment document, appear to provide an unprecedented overview of the PRC United Front funding channels and actors, in Greater Toronto. Reported here:
“Besides funding, the UFWD is also likely to offer candidates logistical support, favourable media coverage, and endorsements,” the 2020 document says.
“Community leaders facilitate the clandestine transfer of funds and recruit potential targets."
"The UFWD’s extensive network of quasi-official and local community and interest groups, allow it to OBFUSCATE communication and THE FLOW OF FUNDS BETWEEN CANADIAN TARGETS AND CHINESE OFFICIALS.”
This is another stunning finding. I have reported about the PRC's alleged schemes of placing co-opted staff members into the offices of elected Canadian MPs, and into campaign networks. The PCO document from 2020 says:
Political staffers who are “under broad guidance” from the Toronto consulate serve as intermediaries between Chinese officials and the politicians Beijing was seeking to influence.
The outcome of these “subtle but effective” operations, the document says, is that “staff of targeted politicians provide advice on China-related issues” to the Chinese consulate.
Again, the context of our November 7 report, and further details from today's report, is that Canadian intelligence understands CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has increased foreign interference in Canada and other states since 2015, when Xi increased UFWD's power/resources.
And so, in the 2020 PCO document, prepared 4 months after China allegedly attacked/influenced the 2019 election, Canadian intelligence warned senior Liberal officials that Xi's UFWD was expanding, getting more coordinated. This is the tool used to meddle in Can elections.
“Under President Xi Jinping, the UFWD has seen an expansion in resources and improved coordination," the document asserted.
Therefore, in February 2020, in an intelligence assessment, the PCO predicted China’s “foreign interference efforts are likely to be more persistent and pervasive in future elections.”
Patrick Tucker, Musk Has Reduced Twitter’s Ability to Spot Foreign Disinformation, a Former Data Scientist Says- Defence One
It’s not clear how Twitter can filter out foreign disinformation now that CEO Elon Musk has gutted the teams meant to prevent a repeat of Russia’s effort to sway the 2016 presidential election, says one former Twitter senior data scientist.
In the wake of that election, the company took various measures to ward off threats to itself and its users. Perhaps most importantly, executives established a Trust and Safety Council to advise them on issues like harassment, stalking, doxxing, child abuse, self-harm, and foreign election interference.
Melissa Ingle says that Elon Musk laid off all three data scientist working on algorithms related to disinformation, about 60% of the 550 employees working on trust and safety issues are gone as well. Musk also disbanded the volunteer trust and safety council (about 100 members), and 80% of human reviewers. I'm not clear on how he intends to combat misinfo with the current staff.”
