Dec 27: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope Pond&Beyond
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea and 99 attack drones, mainly Shahed types. Air defense shot down or suppressed 73 drones across the north, south and east. Impacts were recorded at 16 locations.
Russia struck Kharkiv with guided aerial bombs. The hit landed on one of the city’s busiest roads, setting multiple cars on fire. The mayor confirms fatalities and wounded, with numbers still being clarified.
Oleksii Kuleba: On December 26, the ports of the Odesa region came under a series of drone attacks by the Russian Federation, which caused damage to grain elevators, warehouses, and ships. The Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction of Ukraine and Minister for Communities and Territories Development Oleksiy Kuleba announced this.
Exilenova: Map of successful deep strike attacks against Russia by Ukrainian forces in 2025. Over 350 strikes in the 12 months of 2025 (a more detailed analysis will be available in January).
Russian forces attacked Uman with a missile on 26 December leaving six people injured, including two children. Residential infrastructure has been damaged, reports Ihor Taburets, Head of Cherkasy Oblast Military Administration; Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne.
A Russian night strike hit the Illichivsk oil and fat processing plant in Chornomorsk. A drone hit damaged a vegetable oil container, causing a major fire and spill. No casualties, but production facilities were affected.
Reminder: Russia attacks Kherson market, Chernihiv apartment building on Christmas Day, killing 2, injuring 9. Ukraine is marking its fourth Christmas under a full-scale Russian invasion.
The new short film “Retribution” from the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has become the sixth in a series of works about the Ukrainian Resistance Movement in temporarily occupied territories.
“The film’s plot centers on the figure of a musician who remains in the city of Mariupol, captured by the Russians. Despite the pressure of the occupation regime and the cynical “restoration” of the dramatic theater (the building where hundreds of people died in 2022 due to Russian airstrikes), the hero continues to believe in the city’s liberation”
With Germany’s help, Ukrainian communities keep kindergartens and hospitals running through blackouts. Across Ukraine, CHP units have become a crucial solution. Installed near apartment blocks, schools, and municipal facilities, they generate heat and electricity simultaneously, enabling communities to continue operating even when the national grid is damaged.
In the temporarily occupied Crimea, mobile communications and Internet access are subjected to recurring restrictions: outages and artificial traffic delays are becoming a common practice, already taking on a systemic character reports the Center for National Resistance.
Combat SituationRussian troops overran a TDF battalion command post,which left behind maps, documents, devices and seals. This points to a serious breakdown in command and control. Huliaipole is turning into a gray zone.
Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers are acknowledging significant Ukrainian successes in the Kupyansk direction and criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian military command for providing false battlefield reports.
The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine that the Russian foreces have not been able to go beyond populated areas of Sumy and will not be able to expand the zone of hostilities on the territory of the country.
President Zelensky says equipment used to guide Shahed drone strikes against Ukraine is being placed on rooftops of residential buildings in Belarus. Antennas near the border reportedly help direct attacks on western Ukraine, including rail and logistics targets linking Ukraine with Poland.
Ukraining forces continue degrading Russian capabilities:
Ukrainian drones struck Volgograd, triggering a fire near the Lukoil-Volgograd Refinery.
Ukrainian forces have successfully hit: launcher of the S-300V complex; RSP-6M2 radar system; Redut-221 command and staff vehicle from the Buk-M3 air defense system, and; RPN 9S36M radar station from the Buk-M3 air defense system.
Ukraine on track to receive total of 3 million FPV drones in 2025, defense minister says. "The role of unmanned systems on the battlefield is growing, and therefore the production of innovative instruments of war is our number one priority," Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
Behind the LinesReuters: Precious metals – gold, silver, and platinum – continue to rise, hitting new highs as liquidity tightens and seasonal speculative demand picks up toward year-end. Market data show spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,504.79 per ounce after previously pausing at a record level of $4,530.60; February-dated U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $4,535.20. The spot price of silver jumped 3.6% to $74.56 per ounce, after previously hitting a record high of $75.14.
Tagesspiegel: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stressed that the European Union should not entirely sever its defense partnership with the United States, even amid discussions about the EU’s autonomy from Washington. This stance emerged in the context of a debate about possible EU independence in the defense sphere, Ukrinform reports, citing Tagesspiegel.
According to Rutte, despite the current course of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the EU should not become completely independent from the United States on defense issues. He also emphasized that the United States expects Europe to take greater responsibility and to increase defense spending, but the main idea is to work together with the United States.
President Zelensky confirmed that there will be an upcoming high level meeting with Trump. The talks are reportedly set for December 28 in Florida, with Zelensky noting that major decisions could be made before the New Year.
Russian media claims Moscow is still demanding the entire Donbas in talks with the US, including areas Russia failed to seize. Russian media say the Kremlin rejects discussion over Kramatorsk–Sloviansk, floats limited land swaps, and calls US coordination with Europe a sign of weakness.
Axios: Putin is reportedly floating a temporary ceasefire to stage sham referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories, according to Axios. The report says talks show progress ahead of a planned meeting between Zelensky and Trump, but control over Donbas remains the core dispute.
Europe is set to finalise Ukraine security guarantees in January. France and the UK are leading efforts within the Coalition of the Willing to define post ceasefire support, including possible troop deployments. Emmanuel Macron says it is now up to Russia to respond. Zelensky continues to push for binding guarantees.
Explosions were reported on December 24 at a military base in Ussuriysk, near the borders with North Korea and China. Two blasts hit the parking area of the 80th Vitebsk Red Banner Brigade. Emergency services and the FSB were deployed to the site.
Associated Press: Japan—On Dec 26, the Japanese government approved a record draft budget for the 2026 fiscal year. In particular, defense receives 58 billion dollars, and the total budget amounts to 785 billion dollars (122.31 trillion yen).
Defense spending is directed at strengthening the country’s ability to respond to potential strikes and defend the coast using cruise missiles and unmanned systems. It is expected that the share of defense expenditures will rise to 2% of gross domestic product.
Additionally, Japan plans to review its current security and defense policy by December 2026 with the aim of further strengthening the armed forces. Missiles and drones are to bolster the defense of the southwestern islands. (see next section)
Meanwhile in Russia & China…Astra: Russian media report the death of former Deputy Defence Minister Yuriy Sadovenko, a Zhytomyr-born Colonel-General and long-time Shoigu ally who played a senior role in Russia’s military leadership during the invasion of Ukraine and was sanctioned by the US and UK. He was dismissed in 2024 and has now reportedly died of a heart attack.
The Central Bank has revealed how much currency it will sell in 2026: 4.6 billion rubles per day from January 12 to June 30. This is almost half the amount it currently sells (8.9 billion rubles per day). In just six months, the Central Bank will sell 540.8 billion rubles worth of foreign currency—that’s how much was spent from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) on investments in the second half of this year.
Russia needs to transition to a six-day workweek to accelerate economic growth, which has declined sharply in the fourth year of the war in Ukraine, stated Gennady Onishchenko, an academician at the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). "It's high time [to introduce a six-day workweek] if we intend to boost the economy," Onishchenko told RIA Novosti. He emphasized that the increased workload will not affect citizens' health in any way. Previously, a six-day workweek with Sunday off was introduced under Joseph Stalin in 1940. The standard five-day workweek with an eight-hour workday was not established until March 1967.
Dump truck drivers from Angara-Stroy, the contractor building the Krasnoyarsk metro, went on strike due to wage arrears, NGS24.RU reports. This morning, they blocked the entrance to the construction site, parking their trucks opposite the regional government building. One of the strikers reported that the main subcontractor, Bamtonnelstroy (BTS), hadn't paid their wages since August. Another source told the publication that drivers are refusing to remove soil from construction sites until the debt is paid.
Six districts of Yakutia have nearly run out of coal at boiler houses, according to Vyacheslav Yemelyanov, the republic's Minister of Housing and Utilities and Energy. He said fuel shortages have arisen in the Ust-Aldansky, Churapchinsky, Tattinsky, Megino-Kangalassky, Amginsky, and Gorny districts. The reasons are debts from utility companies and a lack of funds: companies are unable to make timely payments to coal mines and haulers, Yemelyanov explained. Authorities are awaiting subsidies from the Ministry of Finance to restore supplies. The temperature in the region is currently -42 degrees Celsius (-42 degrees Fahrenheit).
The Guardian: Russia is scrambling to rein in the country’s sprawling illicit market for leaked personal data, a shadowy ecosystem long exploited by investigative journalists, police and criminal groups.
For more than a decade, Russia’s so-called probiv market – a term derived from the verb “to pierce” or “to punch into a search bar” – has operated as a parallel information economy built on a network of corrupt officials, traffic police, bank employees and low-level security staff willing to sell access to restricted government or corporate databases.
While leaked databases exist everywhere, the scale and routine use of probiv is uniquely Russian. It grew out of the country’s deeply corrupt state infrastructure and became indispensable both to those seeking to exploit the system and to those trying to expose it.
For a modest fee – sometimes as little as $10 – buyers can obtain passport numbers, home addresses, travel histories, car registrations and internal police records. At the higher end, entire dossiers could be purchased on individuals, including metadata on calls and movements.
Probiv, whose use remains controversial among Russian journalists, have underpinned high-profile investigations, including tracing the FSB state security unit behind the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. (continue)
Reuters: China’s foreign ministry announced sanctions on Friday targeting 10 individuals and 20 U.S. defence firms, including Boeing’s (BA.N), opens new tab St. Louis branch, over arms sales to Taiwan. The measures freeze any assets the companies and individuals hold in China and bar domestic organisations and individuals from doing business with them, the ministry said.
Individuals on the list, including the founder of defence firm Anduril Industries and nine senior executives from the sanctioned firms, are also banned from entering China, it added. Other companies targeted include Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation and L3Harris Maritime Services.
“The Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement on Friday.
“Any provocative actions that cross the line on the Taiwan issue will be met with a strong response from China,” the statement said, urging the U.S. to cease “dangerous” efforts to arm the island.
ISW: The PRC criticized Japan’s plans to increase its military footprint on remote islands. Japanese media reported that the Japanese Ministry of Defense has signed a land lease agreement to deploy a radar unit on Kitadaito Island, the easternmost island of Okinawa Prefecture.
The plan includes deploying a mobile warning and control radar and approximately 30 Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) personnel. The deployment was made available under the supplementary budget, which the National Diet passed on December 16.
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said that the deployment is in response to increased air and maritime activities around Japan conducted by neighboring countries.
PLA Air Force and Russian Air Force aircraft and the PLA aircraft carrier Liaoning recently operated around Okinawa between December 6 and 12. PRC Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun criticized Japan’s plans to expand military presence on remote islands, which includes the deployment of medium-range missiles on Yonaguni Island that Koizumi announced on November 23.
In Europe…Reminder: Poland sent fighter jets to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying near its airspace over the Baltic Sea and said dozens of objects entered from Belarus overnight, warning the incidents during the holiday season may signal a provocation.
“This morning, over the international waters of the Baltic Sea, Polish fighter jets intercepted, visually identified, and escorted from their area of responsibility a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying near the borders of Polish airspace,” the Polish army said on Thursday.
Violation of Poland’s airspace on December 25 by balloons from Belarus – a provocation disguised as contraband activity, reported the National Security Bureau (BBN) of Poland reported this on X. BBN said that President Karol Nawrocki was informed that on the night of December 24–25 the Polish airspace was violated by several dozen objects, and near the country’s territorial waters a Russian reconnaissance aircraft was intercepted by Polish fighters.
“Analysis of both incidents, their consequences and the possible connection between them is ongoing. The available and verified data indicate that several (four) objects detected today by the respective services in Poland were identified as likely contraband balloons. However, the large-scale nature of the violation of Polish airspace, the fact that it occurred during a special festive period, the assessment of activity by Russian aircraft in the Baltic Sea, and the fact that similar incidents recently occurred in Lithuania, may indicate that this was a provocation disguised as a contraband operation”, – stressed by the National Security Bureau of Poland.
Reminder: Romania scrambled F-16 fighter jets on the night of 25-26 December as Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast with drones, reported the Romanian Ministry of Defence. Romanian Ministry of Defence said that at 01:05 on the night of 25-26 December, two F-16 fighter jets from the 86th Air Base in Fetești were scrambled to monitor the air situation in the border area with Ukraine in the north of Tulcea County. The ministry’s air surveillance system detected groups of drones launched by Russia towards Ukrainian ports on the Danube.
Associated Press: A pro-Russian hacking group has claimed responsibility for a large-scale cyberattack that halted parcel deliveries by France’s national postal service a few days before Christmas, AP reported.
The Paris prosecutor’s office said that after a statement by the cybercriminal group known as Noname057, France’s domestic intelligence agency, the DGSI, took over the investigation into the hacking attack. La Poste said that the central computer systems of France’s national postal service were knocked offline on Monday 22 December as a result of a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack.
Reuters: Russia had made a proposal to France regarding Laurent Vinatier, a French researcher jailed for violating Russia’s foreign agent laws, and the ball is now in Paris’s court, the Kremlin said on Thursday. Vinatier was sentenced in 2024 to three years in jail for failing to comply with laws requiring individuals deemed “foreign agents” to register and meet a number of stipulations. He is now facing additional espionage charges. France has said Vinatier was arbitrarily detained and has called for his release. President Emmanuel Macron has denied that Vinatier worked for the French state and has described his arrest as part of a misinformation campaign by Moscow.
Across the Pond and Beyond...CNN: Trump says US military struck ISIS terrorists in Nigeria (video DeptofWar TG channel)
Trump said Thursday he’d ordered a deadly strike on Islamic State terrorists in Nigeria, who he has accused of persecuting Christians in the country.
“Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!” the president wrote on Truth Social.
The US military’s Africa Command said the strike was carried out in Sokoto state in coordination with the Nigerian authorities. Forests in Sokoto, which is bordered by Niger to the north, have been used as bases by gangs of armed bandits and members of the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) known locally as ‘Lakurawa’.
Reuters: A planned Christmas Eve jazz concert at the Kennedy Center was canceled, with the host of the longtime annual performance attributing the decision to the addition of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's name to the institution in Washington. The board of the Kennedy Center, which the president filled with allies during a broad takeover earlier this year, decided last week to add Trump's name to the institution, horrifying Democrats and raising questions about the legality of the change.
The Hill Oped by Mark Toth and Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet: Trump should bolster, not undermine, Ukraine’s fighting Christmas spirit
Since Russia’s invasion began, according to Ukraine’s Office of the General Prosecutor, Russia has killed 676 children and injured 2,306. Putin’s military forces have bombed children’s hospitals kindergartens and playgrounds. Russia has also kidnapped more than 19,000 Ukrainian children.
It is Christmas morning, but we don’t have a gift for Daryna and Ivan. They have a gift for us as Americans. Their grit is reminding us once again of something uniquely American — our own history of demonstrating unwavering resolve in the face of war. They once showed us that by gamely hiding under a staircase during a Christmas air raid, and again when a Russian Shahed drone exploded a block away from their house.
Washington needs this gift now more than ever, because the White House is losing its way over what is at stake in Ukraine. Contrary to what President Trump keeps saying, this is our war. Western liberty is under attack by the forces of tyranny. And it is under attack by the very same powers in Moscow and Beijing that threatened it for 43 years during the Cold War.
It matters not that this war is happening “on another continent,” as Secretary Marco Rubio put it during his press conference. This war is ultimately aimed at the U.S. Lose Ukraine, and you risk losing Europe. If Europe is lost, then Washington risks a world wherein the U.S. is economically, if not militarily dominated by a rapidly expanding and increasingly militaristic China.
Team Trump must stop falling for the Russian narrative, especially as it is espoused by Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev. Dmitriev’s mission is not one of peace. No matter how many times he says otherwise on his X feed.
His primary task is to destroy NATO by creating wedges between Washington and Europe. Putin is not interested in peace. If he were interest, the Kremlin would drop its maximalist negotiating demands and agree to a ceasefire. None of that is happening — not even a Christmas ceasefire that would allow Daryna and Ivan to celebrate in peace and safety. (continue)