Dec 30 Buonasera Mag
Day 310: Mariupol RUattacks demining Zelensky Budanov RUdecrees TikTok Lavrov Wallace Bradleys UAmedia Zhevago China-A&Ps-Lytvynenko Rostov ISW OCCRP Stanovaya DoorCountryCandle McFaul Lucas Vasylenko
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Ukraine downs 54 out of 69 missiles amid Russia’s 8th mass attack. Russia launched a new mass attack using air and sea-based cruise missiles from various directions early on Dec. 29, Ukraine’s Air Force reported.
Russia’s Dec. 29 mass strike causes damage to Ukraine’s power generation facilities, grid. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said that the situation is particularly “difficult” in Kyiv Oblast and the southern Odesa Oblast, as well as western Ukraine.
UK provides Ukraine with de-mining equipment. The U.K. has supplied Ukraine with over 1,000 VALLON metal detectors and 100 bomb de-arming kits to help clear minefields and make safe reclaimed territory, civilian homes, and infrastructure, the U.K. government said.
President Zelensky posted pictures of rescue workers and a message:
We are fighting for Ukraine, for the values that unite Europe and the democratic world, for the global value of life. For everything that the terrorist state is trying to destroy.
It is not easy, it is hard, but I am confident that we will pull through and Russian aggression will fail so that all other potential aggressors of the world do not dare to repeat what Russism does.
Moscow reportedly planning to allow illegal use of foreign-made software whose developers have left Russian market (the move could affect products from Adobe, SAP, and Microsoft).
Putin buys loyalty by signing a decree exempting members of state security services and the armed forces from paying taxes. Most importantly, Russian soldiers are now legally allowed (and thereby invited) to keep (tax-free) anything they steal in Ukraine.
As per Insider: In the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, TikTok was flooded with hashtags such as #RussiaForward or all sorts of letter Z combinations. Young bloggers praised Putin's wisdom, expressed their admiration for Kadyrov and tried to convince their subscribers that the sanctions were ineffective. The Insider suspected that much of this content was being distributed for money and ran “background checks” on TikTokers who seemed particularly patriotic. It turned out that a video on a particular topic cost approximately 100 euros. The TikTokers themselves had little understanding of what it was they were being hired for, and for the specified price they were prepared to promote any agenda, even the most absurd one, for which The Insider promised to pay, posing as a customer on behalf of the Kremlin. (continue to the article)
Russia is rejecting the 10-step peace plan proposed byPresident Zelensky, said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview to RIA Novosti. In his own words,
It’s obvious that Kyiv isn’t ready for dialogue. In proposing all kinds of ideas and “peace formulas,” Zelensky is cherishing an illusion of being able to get help from the West in getting our troops out of the Russian territories in Donbas, Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and the Kherson region, in getting Russia to pay reparations and to repent in front of international tribunals, and so forth. Of course, we’re not going to talk to anyone on such conditions. It’s hard to say if there are any remaining sane politicians in the Kyiv-controlled parts.
Wallace: U.K. to support Ukraine with $2.8 billion in 2023. The U.K. will commit $2.77 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2023, the UK’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said. “Another £2.3 billion worth of support next year, and in that we make sure they have the weapon systems they need, and at the moment, the United Kingdom will go and help them buy it from elsewhere around the world,” Wallace said.
Bloomberg: US considers sending Bradley fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The U.S. government is weighing sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine as part of a further package of military support, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. A final decision hasn’t yet been made. When the vehicles would be operational is also unclear, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
UK Ambassador to Ukraine: ‘Russia doesn't want peace. Russia wants subjugation of Ukraine.’ British Ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons said that “Russia does not want peace with Ukraine” as it launched yet another mass strike against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Dec. 29.
Zelensky signs media law criticized by journalist groups as authoritarian. The bill has been criticized by journalist organizations as an attempt to introduce censorship. The law dramatically expands the media regulator's powers and gives it the authority to shut down news sites that are not officially registered as media without a court ruling.
Media: French court arrests Ukrainian billionaire Zhevago, considers extradition. A French court on Dec. 28 placed Ukrainian businessman and former lawmaker Kostiantyn Zhevago under arrest on Dec. 28 until it decides on Ukraine’s request to extradite the billionaire, Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda reported on Dec. 29, citing Ukraine's State Investigation Bureau.
In response to the restrictions, several Russian theaters had to get creative to keep visitors coming through the door. This includes the use of pirated films, with some converted to Digital Cinema Packages (DCP) so they can be displayed on the big screen. Many of these DCP releases come with Russian dubbing. Interestingly, our previous research suggests that these packages are sometimes shared between cinema locations using unlisted torrents. Meduza reports that several movie theaters managed to get their hands on high-quality DCP copies. These are reportedly sourced from “friendly” countries such as Kazakhstan, and come complete with Russian dubbing. Unauthorized screenings are taking place in cities including St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Krasnoyarsk. How these theaters receive their DCP copies is unknown, but unlisted torrent transfers could be involved. (read the full article: quite interesting)
The Ukrinform website is reporting that Ukraine expects to receive 12 more temporary bridges from the Czech Republic in 2023. It quotes Andriy Ivko, who is deputy head of Ukraine’s road agency Ukravtodor.
The Chinese payment system UnionPay has introduced a limit on withdrawing cash abroad from cards issued by Russian banks. It is reported by RBC with reference to sources in the banking sector. Earlier , Primorye Bank published a message about the introduction of a limit on cash withdrawals.
Reuters reports that Putin said on Friday he was expecting Chinese president Xi Jinping to make a state visit to Russia in spring 2023. Putin said: “We are expecting you, dear Mr Chairman, dear friend, we are expecting you next spring on a state visit to Moscow.” He said the visit would “demonstrate to the world the closeness of Russian-Chinese relations”.
A tip-off from a friendly Western intelligence agency helped Germany identify an employee in its foreign intelligence service (BND) who was arrested on suspicion of passing state secrets to Russia, the Spiegel magazine reported on Wednesday.
Actors, scammers & criminals: Who were the most Googled people of 2022?- Euronews
Johnny Depp
Will Smith
Amber Heard
Vladimir Putin
Chris Rock
Novak Djokovic
Anna Sorokin
Andrew Tate
Rishi Sunak
Simon Leviev
Tatiana Stanovaya, The Putin regime is rotting from the inside, Carnegie Politika
For years, Stanovaya has argued that Vladimir Putin’s interest in domestic politics has been declining. The president’s decision not to hold a “direct line” call-in show, major press conference, or address to the Federal Assembly confirms this, she says, explaining that Putin considers direct contact with society to be “pointless and overly time-consuming” (though this engagement is one of the “original institutions” of his entire regime). Russia’s existential battle with the West today (as Putin sees it) has made it “psychologically easier” for him to ditch these rituals.
Stanovaya points out that the president still has plenty to say, as his ongoing public remarks demonstrate, but his primary audience is now abroad; talking to Russians at home is for Putin’s subordinates.
By forgoing a constitutionally mandated address to the Federal Assembly in 2022, the Kremlin is failing to obey its own rules. Stanovaya says this dismissive attitude about its own work ultimately harms the president. The regime’s machinery is starting to undermine its creator’s interests while “global problems” distract Putin. This isn’t sabotage but “rot from the inside.” As Russia’s formal procedures lose their value, however, Putin appears to be convinced that his righteous war is proof enough of his sound leadership.
Michael McFaul, Why Taiwan is Cheering Ukraine- McFaul’s World
What happens in Europe today influences what happens in Asia tomorrow
This week, while a large part of the world was celebrating Christmas, tensions were rising in the Taiwan Strait again. China sent 71 military planes into Taiwan’s air defense zone and Taiwan increased mandatory military service for all eligible men from four months to one-year. The specter of a People’s Republic of China (PRC) invasion of Taiwan haunts not just Asian security but the entire world. Beijing’s provocative actions this week are a reminder that American national security leaders will be consumed with trying to deter a war over Taiwan for years, if not decades, to come.
Given the high-stakes for U.S. and international security in Asia, an often-heard argument in U.S. foreign policy circles is that Russia’s war in Ukraine is a distraction to America’s larger security challenge; the PRC. As a great, yet limited power, the U.S. should prioritize China and Asia, not Russia and Europe, so the arguments goes.
That argument is wrong. Of course, dealing with the PRC is this century’s most important foreign policy issue for American decision-makers. But what happens in Europe today does not exist in a void. In fact, it has far-reaching implications for what happens in Asia tomorrow. And no one understands that better than the Taiwanese.
Edward Lucas, Why Germany Has Learned the Wrong Lessons From History- Foreign Policy (must read)
Whenever I tried in my journalism, lecturing, and consulting to alert Germans to the danger presented by nascent, and then fully revived, Russian imperialism, they laughed at me. I still recall the sardonic, patronizing response I received in the German Chancellery around 2010, when I tried to warn my interlocutors about the danger of Russian hybrid warfare tactics—the cocktail of disinformation, economic coercion, subversion, espionage, and threats of force that Russia uses against its neighbors. “You are not seriously saying that Russia would conduct these operations against the Federal Republic of Germany?” my hosts asked, incredulously.
“Duh, yes,” I replied. (Memory may have paraphrased my exact response). Berlin’s complacent approach allowed Russian spies, crooks, and thugs to run wild, stealing secrets, assassinating critics, and building bastions of influence in Germany. News that an officer in the Bundesnachrichtendienst—the German foreign intelligence service—was arrested last week for spying for Russia will come as little surprise. “If you want the Kremlin to take something seriously, give it to the Germans and tell them it’s a secret,” an exasperated intelligence officer from a NATO country told me in the 1980s. If anything, Russian (and now Chinese) penetration of the German security services has worsened since then.
Scott Lucas, Iran Protests: 100 Detainees Face Death Penalty- EA Worldview
Writer and artist Sepideh Rashno has been given a five-year suspended sentence for refusing to wear the hijab in public.
A court convicted Rashno on Wednesday on charges of “gathering and colluding against the country’s security”, “propaganda activity against the government”, and “appearing without a hijab in public”.
Rashno was arrested on June 15 after a viral video of her challenging a woman trying to enforce compulsory hijab on a Tehran bus. The women threatened to send the footage to the Revolutionary Guards.
Rashad disappeared for several days. She was then shown on State TV, bruised and beaten in a “confession”.
In late August, more than 1,000 Iranian citizens and civil activists highlighted Rashno’s case in a statement protesting “four decades of oppression of Iranian women”.
Rashno was released on bail days later.
Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, A new chapter of U.S.-China competition begins- Axios
The Chinese government no longer appears as invulnerable as it did at the height of the global pandemic, and Beijing's major policy changes could alter the calculus in U.S.-China competition.
What's happening: Facing economic headwinds at home and increasingly unified opposition abroad, Beijing appears to be softening its tone and offering some concessions to the international community. China is also emerging from three years of self-imposed COVID lockdowns, following widespread protests.
Why it matters: Tectonic shifts in geopolitical strategy are underway as both Washington and Beijing try to manage superpower competition — and come out on top.
Poorly managed competition between the world's two most powerful countries could undermine climate change mitigation, fuel a technology arms race, justify expansive surveillance regimes, divide families, exploit other nations, and in a worst case scenario, even result in war.