Dec 31: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Quote of the Year: Jan Lipavsky, Foreign Minister of Czechia
Backstory: Osint-1 reports that “Russia has called for an Emergency Meeting of the U.N. Security Council today to discuss the “Ukrainian Attack” launched against the City of Belgorod which they claim was caused by Britain and the United States’s support for Ukraine; they further requested that the Representative from Czechia attend the Meeting due to their claim that Czech Rockets were used in the Attack, however the Representative has refused stating that they will only attend a meeting to discuss Russian Forces leaving Ukraine.”
Looks like some countries are growing a spine.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky: Russia will be held responsible for every strike on Ukrainian cities. Russia will be held responsible for every strike on Ukraine's cities, President Zelensky said in his evening video address on Dec. 30.
“Whatever happens in other countries, whatever political changes or moods, we must have sufficient potential to do our thing, to achieve our goals.”
Kharkiv was hit by a barrage of Russian missiles tonight. At least 16 people have been taken to hospital. Kherson is also being targeted by the Russians—the population has been without sleep for the past month.
"A missile hit the hotel and a second an apartment building. There are many injured but fortunately they are alive. People will be resettled," Mayor of Kharkiv Ihor Terekhov reports.
Ukrinform: Russian army attacks 15 regions of Ukraine in 24 hours - RMA summary. During the day, the Russian army attacked 15 regions of Ukraine, using attack drones, missiles, artillery, and mortars. Kherson took another beating last night. My heart goes out to all Ukrainians that are being attacked night after night.
Orianna Lyla: Volunteers and caring Lviv residents bring food and warm clothes to the affected residents who lost everything following the russian attacks. Video: khrystyna_hashenko
At the writing of this post, 41 persons have died and more than 160 were wounded because of the massive Russian missile and drone attack, the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs reports. The Ukrainian State Emergency Service has saved 53 people, 8 of which were pulled from the rubble. A pictogram of the Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, civilians and infrastructure.
Dec 30: Air raid alerts across Ukrainian regions and in the city of Kyiv at about 10.30am local time today after reports that a MiG fighter jet that can carry Kinzhal missiles took off from an airbase in Russia, the Kyiv Independent reported.
This is how the Russian representative at the UN justified Russia’s attack on six Ukrainian cities yesterday: "Ukrainian authorities are placing air defense systems in residential areas in violation of international law," Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said at a meeting of the UN Security Council.
Governor: Russian attacks on Nikopol injure 3 people. Russian attacks on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Dec. 29 injured three people, regional governor Serhii Lysak reported. A 49-year-old man was reportedly hospitalized, and two 29-year-old men sustained minor injuries.
Russia attacks Cherkasy Oblast, at least 9 injured. Russian forces struck a residential area in Smila, Cherkasy Oblast, in the afternoon of Dec. 29, injuring at least nine people, including a child, according to the latest information published by Ukraine's State Emergency Service.
Combat Situation Update
CDS operational report on the current battle situation:
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured two Ukrainian positions near Synkivka. They are slowly advancing; prioritizing artillery strikes on the objects of the "Khortytsia" OSG rather than engaging in direct assaults.
On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces made slight progress near Spirne, north and east of Bohdanivka, and attempted an unsuccessful attack near Vesele.
On the Avdiivka direction, the "Tavriya" OSG forces attacked near Mayorske and New York.
Tokmak direction: Russian forces captured Dorozhnyanka, advanced west and northwest of Robotyne, and along the line Robotyne-Verbove. They launched an aerial strike with glide bombs on Orikhove. The adversary partially managed to restore positions along the first line of its main defense line through intensive attacks by the forces of the 76th and 7th Air Assault Divisions.
Kherson direction: The "Odesa" OSG forces maintain positions on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast; positional battles have been ongoing across the entire eastern bank.
The adversary, leveraging its superiority in the air, is increasing the intensity of airstrikes on the Tavria direction, conducting aerial reconnaissance on the Kherson direction, and regrouping forces in the vicinity of Avdiivka.
Russian forces continued their attempts to capture Bohdanivka, to advance towards Chasiv Yar, and regain lost positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
Forward units of the adversary have reached a position 2 km from the western outskirts of Robotyne and continue to attack. Should they succeed in progressing on this axis by at least 1-1.5 km, the situation to the east and southeast of Robotyne for the "Tavriya" OSG will sharply deteriorate.
Russian forces have doubled the use of barrage munitions and increased the number of precision bombing raids by Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft on the Tavriya direction.
December 30, 2023, eight Russian warships were remaining on combat duty in the Black Sea, including three missile carriers with a total volley of up to 16 Kalibr-type cruise missiles.
Facilities in Bilhorod, Russia, hit in the morning December 30. RBC Ukraine claims 4 people have died. In the evening, the Russian Ministry of Defence admitted that the deaths of Belgorod residents were the result of the work of Russian air defense. Downed rockets fell on the city.
Russian invaders have painted decoys of fighter jets at the air base in Primorsko-Akhtarsk. OSINT analyst Brady Africk announced this on the X social media platform, Ukrinform reports. According to him, this is not the first time Russia has painted these. Similar decoys appeared at the Yeysk air base over the summer.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army has lost 2,989 officers. 341 of them are in the rank of lieutenant colonel and above, calculated on the basis of open sources by Mediazona, the BBC Russian Service and a team of volunteers. These are the official numbers, but I suspect they don’t give the full picture.
Me: Why is this important? Eliminating this talent pool demoralises the troops, and decreases Russian capabilities of running offensive and defensive operations. These officers cannot be easily replaced. Russia throws mass in their operations, but sooner or later the lack of qualified and capable officers bites.
Moscow won’t give an explanation for the missile in Polish airspace until it is provided with “hard evidence” it was Russian, Andrei Ordash, Russian Chargé d’Affaires in Poland, after being summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry, has said.
According to RIA Novosti, a Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet, Ordash said: “Until hard evidence is provided, we will not give any explanations, because these accusations are unfounded.”
The Polish military did not find anything that "could threaten the safety of the inhabitants of the Lublin region." There are no traces of a Russian missile falling on Polish territory, and no further inspections are planned.
Behind the Lines
Russia has started constructing a naval base in occupied Abkhazia; the Russian Federation has already begun infrastructure work in the Ochamchira District and has started transferring warships, reported European Pravda; project SOVA.
Information that Russia is starting to equip a naval base in Ochamchira appeared on 28 December on the Oko Gora + News and Analytics Telegram channel. Judging by recent images, the Russian Armed Forces are starting dredging operations in the port.
The Telegram channel, in particular, posted pictures showing that as of 26 December, there were about 50 vessels in the port, although a week before, there had been none. The images also show the difference in the bottom depth in the port.
Meanwhile, BBC Newsnight and BBC Verify analysed satellite images showing that dredging and construction work was carried out at Ochamchira port after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Now, the port is the base of patrol ships of the border service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation. This structure protects the so-called borders of the self-proclaimed Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The number and type of Russian vessels currently stationed in Ochamchira are unknown. However, some Western and Georgian publications noted that work on deepening the bottom would allow receiving vessels with a displacement of up to 13,000 tonnes.
The Ministry of Defense of Russia stated that last night, 32 drones attacked the territory of the Russian Federation. They claim that all the drones were allegedly shot down and intercepted over the territories of Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk and Moscow regions.
Orban’s Budapest is flush with Russian and Chinese money. And may I add EU money. We’ll be doing a deep dive into Orban’s Hungary on Kremlin File soon since there are links between Orban’s lobbyists and the GOP. More to come.
Activists of the Cyber Resistance group intercepted Russian communication in which is stated that in total, 74 sailors died and another 27 were wounded during the attack on the Novocherkask landing ship.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Russian automobile market has become Chinese this year. The share of Chinese brands in sales has reached 60%, they dominate the top 10 most popular models and brands.
There are already eight brands from China in the top ten best-selling new cars in Russia at the end of this year. Or even nine - depending on how you consider Moskvich: it is produced in Moscow and is considered Russian, but copies of Chinese JAC JS crossovers come off the assembly line under this name.
All the companies that have remained in Russia knew the risks they were taking on. They’ve known for years. We’re the ones with a short memory span. There are over 200 countries that exist today on this planet. Why would anyone need to open up in Russia if it’s not to make money with a bunch of mafiosi.
The number of criminal cases brought against Russian military personnel for leaving their place of duty without permission has reached a historical maximum. Thus, in 2023, the courts accepted 5,024 such proceedings for consideration, Mediazona calculated .
For comparison, in 2022, Russian authorities received 1,001 cases of escape from the army, and in 2021 -615. We are talking about Article 337 of the Criminal Code - “Unauthorized abandonment of a unit or place of service,” journalists clarified. At the same time, 5,006 cases that ended up in the courts this year were initiated after the start of mobilization in September 2022 - then the criminal penalty for AWOL was increased, and now it amounts to up to five years in prison.
Argentina has officially pulled out of BRICS: Ulrich Speck has commented on the big blow this is for China, which is the major player in BRICS.
Allied Support
Germany will transfer €24 million in the form of a loan agreement and will grant €0.5 million to finance the project to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The Biden administration’s response to the Russian attack yesterday across six Ukrainian cities. Congress is holding up aid to Ukraine because of their own political short-sightedness and greed. The Biden administration was able to send ammunition to Israel via emergency measures yesterday. They should do the same for Ukraine given the severity of Ukraine’s ammunition stock depletion.
Ukrainska Pravda: After a massive Russian attack on Ukraine on the night of Friday 28-29 December, Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom, announced the sending of "hundreds of British made air defence missiles" to Kyiv on Twitter.
The British Ministry of Defence chief called the last wave of Russian strikes "a desperate and futile attempt to regain momentum after the catastrophic loss of hundreds of thousand of conscripts" coming on the eve of Putin's humiliation due to the beginning of the third year of his "three-day war."
"We continue to stand by Ukraine’s defence. Which is why today we are sending hundreds of air defence missiles to restock British gifted air defence systems capable of striking down Russian drones and missiles with incredible accuracy," he announced.
Shapps stressed that Putin is mistaken, "hoping that he can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat."
"Ukraine’s degradation of the Russian Black Sea fleet has proven it is still in this fight to win. And today’s air defence package sends an undeniable message, in the face of Russian barbarity, that the UK remains absolutely committed to supporting Ukraine," he added.
At a meeting of the UN security council, most council members – including the US, France and Britain – condemned the attacks. “Tragically, 2023 is ending as it began, with devastating violence against the people of Ukraine,” UN assistant secretary general Khaled Khiari said after briefing the council on the attacks.
Me: The condemnation needs to be put on the record, and I wish that this could be backed up by concrete action. Words won’t get Russia out of Ukraine.
Government to submit Ukraine Facility plan to European Commission. The Ukraine Facility is designed to support Ukraine, its recovery, and its path to European Union accession, allocating up to 50 billion euros ($55.3 billion) from 2024 to 2027.
Protests in Belgrade, Serbia, continue today expressing dissent about the recent elections, which Vucic claims to have won. Due to election day irregularities they are demanding to redo it.
HUGE NEWS
Constitutional questions
The commentary I’ve been hearing all day about the Colorado and Maine decisions to disqualify Trump from running in the primaries pretty much reflects the ‘victim/martyr’ narrative below on CNN. Trump’s proxies have managed to seed the idea that he’s now a victim of the system, and instead of challenging that narrative, the legacy media is feeding it. Once again.
I agree with John’s comment. Berlusconi was barred from running for office for life in Italy because he corrupted the top of the Financial Investigation Unit (GDF) to hide his mafia dealings and stay in power. I often think we’re a banana republic, but Berlusconi couldn’t run for office. I can’t believe Trump’s candidacy is even being considered at all after everything that he has done to the United States and to Americans. You may agree with his position of taking the States out of NATO, but you can’t hide from the fact that under his presidency, over 500,000 Americans died of Covid. That’s the president you’re going to get: someone who is only interested in making money for himself and that’s about it.
I know I’ll get comments that I shouldn’t even have an opinion about this since I’m not American and shouldn’t interfere. Well, the United States is the most powerful nation on earth, and it sends a signal to all other nations and their politicians and publics. Should Trump succeed, the U.S. could actually end up legitimising authoritarianism instead of standing against the most brutal dictatorships.
Catherine Belton, Russia is working to subvert French support for Ukraine, documents show
From the top floor of the house he shares here with a senior Russian diplomat — to whom he rents the apartment below — the man who helped bankroll the French presidential bid of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has been working on plans to propel pro-Moscow politicians to power.
“We have to change all the governments … All the governments in Western Europe will be changed,” Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former member of the European Parliament for Le Pen’s party, said in an interview. “We have to control this. Take the leadership of this.”
For Schaffhauser, such ambitions are part of a decades-long effort to forge an alliance between Russia and Europe, the prospects of which, however distant, were shattered by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But now, as Kyiv’s counteroffensive — and Western funding for it — falters and as governments in Europe battle rising living costs, plunging approval ratings and the rise of far-right populists, Schaffhauser and his Russian associates see fresh opportunity.
Russia has been increasing its efforts to undermine French support for Kyiv — a hidden propaganda front in Western Europe that is part of the war against Ukraine, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with European security officials and far-right political figures.
The maneuvering — and Kremlin connections with a host of far-right parties across Europe, including in France — are worrying some European officials ahead of European Parliament elections in June. Josep Borrell, the E.U.’s foreign policy chief, warned at a conference this month that those elections could be “as dangerous as the American ones,” driven by “fear” in response to growing inequality and security threats. “Europe is in danger,” he said.
The Kremlin documents, obtained by a European security service and reviewed by The Washington Post, show that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff in President Vladimir Putin’s administration, has tasked Kremlin political strategists with promoting political discord in France through social media and French political figures, opinion leaders and activists. Those figures were not identified by name in the documents seen by The Post. Moscow’s goal is to undermine support for Ukraine and weaken NATO resolve, the documents show. The effort parallels similar interference in Germany, where the Kremlin has attempted to marry the far right and the far left in an antiwar alliance, The Post previously reported.
The talking points to be amplified by the Kremlin’s strategists included arguing that Western sanctions against Russia have damaged the French economy through a decline in trade, leaving the country at risk of falling into “the deepest social and economic crisis of recent years,” as well as asserting that the supply of arms to Ukraine has left France without the weapons to defend itself.
Several weekly “dashboard” presentations to Kremlin officials in 2022 show that Moscow thought France was vulnerable to political turmoil. Citing opinion polls, the strategists noted that 30 percent of the French retained a positive view of Russia, the second highest among Western European countries after Italy, while 40 percent were inclined not to believe reporting on Ukraine by France’s own mass media. [continue]
Re possible disqualification of Trump, for European readers. I don't know why this has to be repeated, but it does. Trump should be disqualified because the plain text of the 14th Amendment disqualifies anyone from becoming our President if he engages in insurrection against the United States or provides aid and comfort for those who do. The rule of law means that we must follow the law even when it may appear to be inconvenient, especially in such a consequential case, or it means nothing at all.
The district court in Colorado, which served as the trial court, found in a hearing that Trump engaged in and gave aid and comfort to an insurrection. In America trial courts are responsible for determining the facts of a civil or criminal case. In the US a court of appeals can only clarify the law that applies in a particular case. Therefore the Colorado trial court's finding that Trump engaged in an insurrection is very important, and will be cited by other courts.
Notwithstanding its own finding of fact, the district court left Trump on the ballot because in its twisted interpretation of the 14th Amendment, that Amendment did not apply to presidents, even though that Amendment does disqualify "officers of the United States," who had engaged in insurrection. On the other hand most people would say that the President is in fact the highest officer of the United States.
Fortunately Colorado's state supreme court relied on the fact finding of the trial court and kicked Trump off the Colorado ballot, pending Trump's likely appeal to the US Supreme Court.
I might add that as far as anyone can tell Trump received due process before the Colorado courts. He was represented by counsel. And given that this trial was a civil proceeding whose object was to determine if he was qualified for high office, Trump's liberty was not at stake. The Court needed only to rule on the preponderance of evidence, not to find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt as it would have had to do in a criminal proceeding. The arguments about the necessity of a "conviction" to kick Trump off the ballot are completely bogus..
No one dares predict what the US Supreme Court will do. While they are bound to respect the facts and record developed by Colorado's trial court, they are free to interpret the Constitution however they wish.
So it all comes down to this. The Supreme Court's conservative majority has long claimed that they are all about respecting the plain text of the Constitution -- they call themselves "textualists" --but they have often conveniently "interpreted" the Constitution so as to further Republican political aims rather than read the Constitution as it would appear to most people.
Let's hope that this time the US Supreme Court holds to the high purpose they claim for themselves.