Dec 31: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope Pond&Beyond
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Happy New Year to Everyone!
E-Stories is taking a break since I’ve got guests coming over the next few days. I’ll be cooking up a storm.
Fun fact from the EU Parliament: Known as the Flag of Europe, it was adopted by the EU in 1985 and represents a shared European identity founded on peace, democracy, and human rights.
Stories we’re following…During the night of Dec 30-31, Ukraine’s air defense shot down or jammed 1 ballistic Iskander-M missile and 52 drones during a Russian attack that included 2 Iskander-M missiles and 60 drones, about 40 of them Shaheds. Hits were confirmed at five locations.
Russian soldiers killed 7 civilians in Pokrovsk, according to Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. On the night of Dec. 21, two Russian troops entered a residential basement sheltering civilians and demanded alcohol. When told there was none, they shot a father and son, then opened fire on the rest. One wounded person survived.
Russian attack drones attacked civilian vessels Emmakris III and Captain Karam, which were entering the port to load wheat, and there are injuries among the civilians. The incident underscores the risks to civilian shipping and critical port infrastructure amid military actions at sea. Such strikes threaten lives and may affect global food security.
Russians dancing on the bodies of Ukrainians who were under the rubble in Mariupol: After murdering between countless people— mostly women, children and elderly—in the Mariupol Drama Theater, Russians have re-opened it after 3 years of reconstruction.
Over the course of a day, the occupiers launched 608 strikes on 25 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region. As a result of the attacks, one man was killed in Zaporizhzhia city, and also in the Zaporizhzhia and Polohy districts; five women were injured.
Sumy OVA: Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces carried out nearly 50 shellings on 23 settlements across 13 communities in the Sumy region. In the Bezdrytska community, a 60-year-old man was wounded when a guided aerial bomb exploded.
December 30, in the Chernihiv district, there was shelling, resulting in damage to an energy facility. The information was confirmed by JSC Chernihivoblenergo in a post on its Facebook page.
Over the past day, Russian forces shelled 19 settlements in Kherson Oblast. Two people were killed, and two more, including a child, were injured. This information was released by the head of the regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, on Telegram on the morning of December 30.
76% of Ukrainians reject recognizing occupied territories as Russian to end war, poll finds
The opinion poll, conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), found that 76% of the 2,000 adults surveyed nationwide consider it unacceptable to recognize occupied Ukrainian territories as part of Russia.
Activists of the Yellow Ribbon movement conducted new acts of resistance in the temporarily occupied territories: in Simferopol, Sevastopol, and in the Yalta district of Donetsk region as reported by activists via Telegram.
“The occupiers’ authorities are trying to create an illusion of stability and “normal life,” but the reality is different. The residents of Crimea have not accepted the occupation; they are waiting for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they are waiting for Ukraine”—Ukrinform.
Reuters: Ukrainians withstand days-long power cuts in crowded ‘resilience’ shelters
For three days, after the latest Russian air attacks on Ukraine, Olena Pazhydaieva has had no power or heat in her apartment in Vyshhorod, a satellite town 20 km (12 miles) north of Kyiv.
With night-time temperatures dipping to -3 C (27 Fahrenheit), she now spends much of the day with her six-year-old son in a shelter the size of a small shack, but with heating and power to connect the devices she needs to work.
About 20 people crowd into the building - dubbed “islet of warmth and power” on the sign outside - with mobile phones and laptops charging in order to keep working and connected.
“After the last attack, we haven’t had electricity for the third day, power hasn’t appeared at all, and now we’re forced to work here in a shelter, where we can charge our stations, charge our laptops,” Pazhydaieva said.
“It’s good that there’s internet. We can work. I’m not the only person here, there are many people.”
Russian drone and missile attacks have long targeted energy facilities throughout Ukraine, triggering blackouts. (continue)
Combat SituationIn the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian troops are intensifying assault actions and trying to seize the settlement of Stepnogirske. as reported by Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Souther Defence Forces, during a live phone-in.
'A continuous field of battle' — Huliaipole becomes gray zone as fighting intensifies in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Southern Command says. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command says Huliaipole is now a gray zone, with no clear front line anymore, according to spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn.
Ukrainian forces continue degrading Russian capabilities:
An explosion occurred on a section of the Druzhba gas pipeline in Zakarpattia, near the village of Rososh in the Svaliava community. A fire broke out at the main gas line, confirmed by emergency services. The alarm was raised and the gas valve was shut off to reduce the fire.
On the night of Dec 30, 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade “Magyar’s Birds” hit multiple Russian drone launch and logistics sites in occupied Donetsk. Targets included a Shahed/Geran logistics hub, pre-launch service point, warhead warehouse, Gerbera storage, and a personnel staging area.
In the early hours of Dec 31, several Ukrainian strikes hit targets across occupied Crimea in recent days. On Dec 26, a drone attack destroyed four 50,000-liter fuel tanks near Kirovske. On Dec 28, strikes targeted a Border Guard facility near Chornomorske and radar infrastructure near Olenivka.
Belarus claims the Russian-made “Oreshnik” missile system is now on combat duty and has released footage to confirm its deployment. What the authorities are not mentioning are the training camps used by the Russian forces in Belarus.
During his meeting with the commanders, Russian President Putin instructed the commander of the Group of Forces "West," Colonel General Kuzovlev, to supress Ukrainian attempts to "interfere with the development of the situation in Kupyansk itself." Kuzovlev told Putin that elimination of Ukrainian units east of Kupyansk goes "according to plan," and that the final destruction of Ukrainian troops in that sector is planned for January-February 2026.
Russia’s Defense Ministry television channel, Zvezda (lit. “Star”) has published several videos showing Russian troops in the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, presenting the footage as proof that the city had been taken under Russian control. One of the videos, however, shows a group of soldiers moving out of the city.
The footage, filmed either by drones or by the soldiers themselves, appeared on Zvezda on Dec. 27 (1, 2). The latest compilation included three videos, only two of which were geolocated: one showed the Kupiansk Dairy and Canning Plant, and the other took place at the Kupiansk Sugar Plant. Both sites are on the left bank of the Oskil River (the eastern side). While Russian troops have infiltrated both sides of the river, no credible analyst has made the claim that Moscow’s forces have taken control of the city.
Information operation: Russia says Ukraine tried to attack Vladimir Putin’s residence with drones
Russia’s FM Lavrov has claimed that Ukraine tried to attack Vladimir Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region overnight and so the Kremlin’s negotiating position would now change, Interfax has reported. He said that Ukraine attacked the Russian president’s state residence with 91 long-range drones, without offering evidence. “Such reckless actions will not go unanswered,” Lavrov was quoted as having said.
President Zelensky has dismissed the accusation, adding that Moscow was preparing the ground to strike government buildings in Kyiv, according to the Reuters news agency.Zelenskyy has urged the US to react to Russian threats accordingly and has cast the Russian claim as a way of undermining progress in peace talks following the Ukrainian leader’s meeting with Donald Trump yesterday. We will give you more on this as we have it.
Putin’s advisor Ushakov claims Trump was “shocked and outraged” by Ukraine’s alleged drone attack on Putin’s residence. Ukraine has denied the accusation, calling it a Russian fabrication to justify further escalation.
Ushakov says Putin warned Trump the attack will lead to a shift in Russia’s negotiation stance and won’t go unanswered. Trump allegedly added, “Thank God we didn’t give Zelensky Tomahawks,” and said the incident will affect U.S. policy toward Kyiv.
The official report from the Russian Defense Ministry said that a total of 18 UAVs were shot down over Russia's Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 29.
Residents of Valdai, where an attack allegedly took place on Putin's residence, heard neither drones, nor explosions, nor any activity from air defenses.
The Kremlin refused to present evidence of the drone raid on Putin’s residence and called the attack a blow to Trump.
Mo: So, the Russians are trying to sabotage peace talks and preparing to bomb government buildings after the Kremlin said it had foiled a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence. Added to this is the realisation that a call with Putin will change Trump’s position quite easily—for example, America’s determination to stick to security guarantees. (Infopic credit: MFA Ukraine)
In a presser on Dec 29, Trump accepted Putin’s lie about the Ukrainian drone strike at one of his many homes: “Well, President Putin told me there was a Ukrainian attack on his residence! This is bad, very bad.”
Trump’s behaviour recalls the disasterous Helsinki presser when he disparaged American intelligence services for disseminating the information that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
U.S. Rep. Don Bacon criticized President Trump over his reaction to Russia’s claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence. “Trump and his team should establish the facts first before jumping in. Putin is a known, shameless liar,” Bacon said.
What this indicates is that Trump does not trust his own intelligence services to provide information and would rather believe what the Russians are feeding him. How can the Ukrainians trust the American promise to abide by a security agreement if Trump and his administration are so ready to believe Russian disinformation?
Behind the LinesOn January 3, Ukraine will host a meeting at the NSA level. On January 6, a leaders-level meeting will take place in France. On January 7, there will be another NSA-level meeting, followed by a meeting of all leaders with U.S. President Donald Trump. All of this is scheduled throughout January.
Power outages reported in the Moscow region, with no official explanation yet. 600,000 Russians in the dark. This comes shortly after reports of a large Ukrainian drone swarm heading toward the Russian capital. (Mo: I wonder if they’ll ever see the light.) Russia is rushing dozens of mobile generators to apartment blocks in Ramenskoye, trying to prop up Moscow’s grid by any means. Seems like power isn’t coming back soon.
Michael Weiss: On Dec 29 Trump said he and Putin bonded over their shared denial that the GRU interfered in the U.S. presidential election in 2016, one of the most well-documented events of that year. Today Trump credits Putin's claim that Ukrainian drones targeted Putin's residence in Novgorod, even though Russia's MoD and the Novgorod regional governor had no information about any such attack.
Zelensky warned his people to be on guard for fresh strikes, saying this was “another lie” from Russia now to justify new attacks on Kyiv.
“They’re simply preparing the ground to carry out strikes, probably on the capital and probably on government buildings,” Zelenskyy told journalists.
“Everyone needs to be alert now, absolutely everyone. A strike on the capital may be carried out, especially since this person [Putin]... said they will choose corresponding targets.”
Meanwhile in Russia & China…Oil production at some Russian oil companies has become unprofitable due to discounts they offer to buyers in India and China, Reuters reports, citing analysts and industry sources.
According to Argus , last week the price of Russian Urals crude fell to $33-34 in Baltic and Black Sea ports—the lowest since the pandemic—and its discount to Brent crude reached $27 per barrel. Some batches destined for Chinese refineries were sold at a discount of $35 per barrel—effectively half price. As a result, the oil industry is on the brink of profitability. "A number of oil projects have already gone into the red, in part due to the complexity of production," notes BCS analyst Kirill Bakhtin.
Following the decline in oil and gas revenues and the shortfall in non-resource taxes, the Russian budget is expecting a sharp decline in revenues from state corporations, which, according to RANEPA estimates , control approximately a third of the Russian economy.
Next year, the federal treasury will receive 703 billion rubles in dividends from state-owned companies, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moissev announced on RBC Radio.
“By the end of this year, we’ll receive just over 1.1 trillion rubles in dividends,” he said, adding that state-owned banks Sber and VTB will account for about half of that amount. In 2026, dividend revenues from state-owned banks will decline by 398 billion rubles, or 36%, according to Moiseyev.
Putin has acquired another palace, located on Cape Aya in Crimea, according to Alexei Navalny's associates from the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). Investigators have gained access to photographs and detailed architectural plans of the building complex, originally constructed as a dacha for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Following the annexation of Crimea, the construction was deemed illegal. The property was handed over to businessmen Yuri and Boris Kovalchuk, close to Putin, and then rebuilt in accordance with the "requirements of the Federal Protective Service (FSO)." In total, at least 10 billion rubles were spent on the project.
Putin signed the first decree on year-round conscription in 2026, which calls for the conscription and deployment of 261,000 citizens. The document, published on the official portal of regulatory legal acts, mandates the conscription of citizens aged 18 to 30 throughout the calendar year—from January 1 to December 31, 2026.
At the same time, the process of sending conscripts to the military, as before, will take place in two waves: from April 1 to July 15 and from October 1 to December 31. At the same time, the deadline for reporting to the military registration and enlistment office via electronic summons has been extended: it is now 30 days from the date it is posted in the relevant register, instead of the previous 20.
Nexta: Russia’s early missile-warning system is falling apart
According to expert Pavel Podvig, out of the three satellites in the Tundra early-warning program, only Kosmos-2552 is still functioning. The other two — Kosmos-2541 and Kosmos-2563 — have stopped adjusting their orbits and are effectively out of service. Kosmos-2552 hasn’t shown clear problems yet, but it also failed to perform a scheduled maneuver in November 2025. Podvig says it’s too early to write the satellite off completely, but it no longer looks like a reliable element of the system.
Reuters: South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Company — once Russia’s biggest foreign carmaker — is reportedly not in a position to repurchase its former auto plant in St. Petersburg before a January 2026 deadline. Hyundai sold its factory for a symbolic sum in 2024 with a two-year buyback clause, but continued fighting in Ukraine and Western sanctions have left the company unable to act. The company’s situation highlights how geopolitical uncertainty is closing the door on any near-term return by Western carmakers to the Russian market.
Bloomberg: China and Russia have built a covert “shadow fleet” of aging LNG tankers, shell companies, and offshore transfers to move sanctioned Russian gas into China, delivering at least $500 million worth of fuel since late summer, according to a Bloomberg investigation. By concentrating shipments at a single Chinese port, disguising vessel ownership, and falsifying ship-tracking data, Beijing and Moscow have found a way to keep Russian LNG exports alive while limiting exposure to U.S. secondary sanctions.
Day 2 of the Live Fire ”Justice Mission 2025” PLA ‘Exercises’ surrounding Taiwan: At 9 am on Tuesday, the ground forces of the PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted long-range live fire drills in the waters to the north of the Taiwan Island and achieved desired effects, said Senior Captain Li Xi, spokesperson of the PLA Eastern Theater Command.—Global Times
The area that the PLA is focusing its drills on and the types of exercises that they will conduct are aimed at building up the Chinese troops' anti-access and aerial denial capabilities.
It is also aiming at enhancing its troops' capabilities to impose control over the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait, two critical waterways that Taiwan relies heavily on for maritime transit and importing products, including critical energy sources.
Taiwan Defense Ministry:
130 China PLA warplanes and 22 ships detected in 24 hours.
90 aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line.
130 is the second-largest daily total on record.
The largest: 153 PLA warplanes on Oct. 14, 2024
Taiwan’s response: From sources in Taiwan, the general population is on alert owing to the PLA’s live fire exercises. Taiwan's CM-11 tanks, copies of the 1960s M60 waiting at the traffic light. They are being mobilized to respond to PLA's all-domain siege of the island.
Footage of A 100-Ton Patrol Boat with the Taiwanese Coast Guard, PP-10090, provided by Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration shows a close encounter between Taiwanese and Chinese coast guard vessels during the ongoing "Justice Mission 2025" exercises. Taiwan Coast Guard conducts 24 hour patrols to keep out Chinese Coast Guard ships conducting operations.
“China’s military provocations along the First Island Chain severely disrupt global maritime trade, air traffic and regional peace.”—Lai Ching-Te, President ROC
Russian propaganda channel RT is launching English-language broadcasting in India, actively promoting its anti-British and anti-Western messages. A Hindi-language website is planned for launch next year to expand the audience.
The Russian propaganda channel RT is launching English-language broadcasting in India and actively promoting it, using anti-British and anti-Western messages. Next year, the Russians plan to create a Hindi website to expand their audience. This was reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), according to UNN.
According to the CCD, next year RT also plans to launch a website in Hindi, hoping to significantly increase its reach through this.
“The Kremlin invests huge sums of money in promoting RT channels in the countries of the Global South, positioning its media as a "source of independent information." However, in reality, RT is an exclusively propaganda project that regularly spreads pro-Russian narratives and outright fakes,” writes the CDC.
Iran launched three domestically built observation satellites into space from Russia on Sunday, state television reported, marking a new step for Tehran's space program despite Western sanctions. "Three Iranian satellites, Zafar-2, Paya and Kowsar 1.5, were launched into space by a Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia," Iranian television reported. The Russian Soyuz launcher was chosen because it is one of the most reliable in the world for transporting sensitive satellites, according to the Fars news agency.
In Europe…European leaders gathered online for another teleconference related to the development of the situation in Ukraine. The event is expected to include Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister.
Norway is allocating over €3 million to support Ukrainian farmers, focusing on restoring fertile soil and aiding producers in frontline areas of Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv regions. Funds will go toward demining, seeds, irrigation, livestock aid, and emergency support.
ERR: There is currently no indication that Russia intends to attack any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly and it is Estonia's task to ensure the situation remains that way, Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin tells ERR in an interview.
Q. When we talk about the threat assessment, how has it changed from Estonia’s perspective from the beginning of the year to the end?
What we’re still seeing today is that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.
We’ve seen that, as a result of our responses, Russia has altered its behavior following various incidents that have occurred more broadly in the region. So far, it’s still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict.
Kateryna Lisunova: Just a curious moment- Apparently, during the Sunday joint video conference with European leaders, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni was very supportive of Zelenskyy’s idea of a referendum and helped convey this point to the American side. Zelenskyy also once again emphasized that the referendum is a very powerful tool. Zelenskyy said on December 29:
"A referendum is the expression of the will of the Ukrainian people. We discussed this yesterday with European leaders. And Giorgia Meloni gave me fantastic support. She said: look, the most important thing is not even when this war will end – although we all want it to end already – but what truly matters is how it ends.
It is crucial that this be an expression of the Ukrainian people’s will, so that the Ukrainian nation accepts this peace and supports this plan. That is why a referendum is a powerful tool. Ukrainians, who have suffered more than anyone else in this war, should be happy about the end of this war and the format of this agreement. This is what a just peace is about".
Mo: I’m of two minds on this issue. Holding a referendum during a war when citizens are under extreme stress isn’t optimal. At the same time, I’m not Ukrainian and it’s up to them on how they want to end the war and how peace should be achieved.
It is to be remembered that in the latest polls, 87% Ukrainians are in favour of peace talks, but 85% Ukrainians are against giving up the sovereignty of Russian-occupied territories.
As Yuriy Sak said in a recent interview for Times Radio:
“Ukrainians people have suffered so much; we have paid such a high price, that for us to just consider [withdrawing] our troops from the parts of Donbas area where are now in control, that’s insane.
The moment Russian troops enter in cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the whole world will again have to see the repeat of Bucha, the repeat of Mariupol, and the repeat of all those cities and small towns where Russia the moment they enter they start looting, raping and committing war crimes. We will not give up on our people.
About the ceasefire: If there are no security guarantees and there is no ceasefire and people gather in one place, they will be bombed and killed by the Russians. So the sequence of the steps that need to taken by the parties for this peace process to work is crucial and of course, you cannot hold anything unless there is a ceasefire.”
Zelensky says he spoke with Chancellor Merz following the Mar-a-Lago meeting with Trump, briefing him on key points and coordination. He slammed Russia’s latest “fake” as an attempt to sabotage diplomacy and prolong the war, saying Ukraine is doing everything to reach peace while Russia keeps inventing excuses for war.
Latvia has completed construction of a 280 km border fence with Russia, part of a €146 million project. Modern surveillance systems will continue to be installed, with full infrastructure expected by the end of 2026.
Center for Countering Disinformation: Russian propaganda has launched a large-scale disinformation campaign to discredit Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone.
According to the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC, this is corroborated by a publication describing a separate network of accounts linked to Russia that spread false statements and manipulative narratives on social media, fueling fears about rising prices, loss of economic sovereignty, and the Brussels diktat ahead of the accession on 1 January 2026.
The Center for Countering Disinformation emphasizes that Moscow views the expansion of the eurozone as a direct threat to its interests: strengthening EU unity reduces space for Russian political influence, and the use of hybrid tools is aimed at undermining trust in European institutions.
Across the Pond and Beyond...CNN: US strikes vessel in eastern Pacific, killing 2
The US military conducted a strike against an alleged drug-trafficking vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Monday, killing two people, according to US Southern Command.
SOUTHCOM said two men were killed and no US service members were harmed in the strike. At least 107 people have now been killed in strikes on suspected drug boats as part of a campaign, dubbed Operation Southern Spear, that the Trump administration has said is aimed at curtailing narcotics trafficking.
CNN: The CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela, sources familiar with the matter told CNN, marking the first known US attack on a target inside that country.
The drone strike, the details of which have not been previously reported, targeted a remote dock on the Venezuelan coast that the US government believed was being used by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to store drugs and move them onto boats for onward shipping, the sources said. No one was present at the facility at the time it was struck, so there were no casualties, according to the sources. US Special Operations Forces provided intelligence support to the operation, sources said, underscoring their continued involvement in the region.
Reuters: Trump said that he is willing to back a new large-scale strike against Iran in the event that the country resumes its program to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons. At the same time, he warned the Palestinian group Hamas about serious consequences in case of non-disarmament. According to the U.S. president, there is intelligence about possible attempts by Iran to resume military programs at new facilities after the June strike, and Washington knows where Tehran is operating.
Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes in Yemen, targeting sites linked to two ships it claims delivered a large arms shipment from the UAE to the southern port of Al-Mukalla. Riyadh accuses the UAE of arming the Southern Transitional Council. Saudi Arabia has now issued a 24-hour ultimatum demanding all Emirati forces and proxies withdraw from Yemen, or face military action.
The President of Syria Ahmad al-Sharaa together with the head of the Central Bank Abdulkader Husari presented new banknotes that will replace the images of the deposed Bashar al-Assad and his family. The initiative is aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate and signals a move away from the past after years of civil war.
