Dec 6: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
When the global order, enshrined in our international institutions, does not hold totalitarians to account by effective mechanisms of deterrence of any nature, this is the result: take what you want. And they will. This is why the Ukrainians, and our Northern European counterparts, have been telling us for years that if we don’t do anything to stop them, they will continue.
Totalitarians, their allies, and fellow travellers, do not hold the same values as we do. International relations are based on power: I am stronger, and have better armaments, therefore, I can take what I want. They aim to reshape the international order by force so that it resembles their world, not ours.
Venezuela: Maduro needed a prepatory justification for an invasion, so he let the ‘people’ decide via a ‘referendum’. Basically, the legalisation of terrorism, which is what the Russian leadership has been doing since the Soviet era. There is nothing new here. It should be recalled that Russian irregular troops have been operating in Venezuela for years. More information will emerge on their role in this grab for territory and resources.
This is the new map of Venezuela that Maduro published.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attack on Kherson injures 1, damages kindergarten. Russian forces carried out the attack at 11 a.m., damaging the walls and windows of the building, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
Russian attacks kill 3, injure 11 in Donetsk, Kherson oblasts over past day. In Donetsk Oblast, one person was killed and another injured in Russian attacks against Kostiantynivka, the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration said on Dec. 4.
Russian forces hit an apartment building in the city of Kherson on Sunday, 3 December, killing one civilian and injuring another three, reports Roman Mrochko, the Head of Kherson City Military Administration, on Telegram; Oleksandr Prokudin, Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, on Telegram.
Prokudin reported that Russian forces attacked 2 hospitals in Kherson. "Hospital buildings were damaged. There are no casualties according to the early reports," he wrote.
President Zelensky’s evening address:
Russia shells 7 areas in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces shelled seven areas in northeastern Sumy Oblast on Dec. 2, the local military administration reported on Telegram. At least 22 strikes were recorded in the oblast over the past 24 hours.
Overnight Dec 2 blackout reported at Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was forced to rely on diesel generators overnight during a blackout, threatening the safety of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on Dec. 2.
Combat Situation Update
Russia are opening new fronts in the battle for Avdiivka, say Ukrainian officials, who have accused Russian forces of assaulting the industrial town in the eastern Donetsk region from two new directions.
"A critical situation has developed in Ukraine, which may worsen due to insufficient western assistance, said NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. "We need to prepare for bad news. Conflicts develop in stages. But we must support Ukraine in both bad and good times," he added.
Ukraine are working towards changing its war tactics, moving to defence in certain areas and continuation of offensive operations in some others, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Monday. Posting an update on X, Podolyak said that winter and “analysis” of Ukraine’s resource capabilities, as well as those of Russia necessitated “adjustments in tactics”. Podolyak wrote:
On the frontline and in the cities, we are already moving to a different tactic of warfare - effective defence in certain areas, continuation of offensive operations in other areas, special strategic operations on the Crimean peninsula and in the Black Sea waters, and significantly reformatted missile defence of critical infrastructure.
First and foremost, additional missile defence systems, as well as long-range missiles, drones, and electronic warfare systems. Thus, to summarise, the stage of the war is clear, the needs are obvious, optimal adjustments to the tactics are being made, and negotiations with partners are active.
ISW: Russian Defense Ministry will likely continue utilizing 'crypto-mobilization' recruitment methods. The Russian Ministry responded to President Vladimir Putin’s Dec. 1 decree increasing the size of the Russian military and said that the ministry is implementing the increase in stages “on account of citizens who express a desire to perform military service under a contract.”
ISW: Shoigu refers to offensives as 'active defense' to lower expectations. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu falsely characterizes Russian offensive operations in Ukraine as "active defense" in order to "temper expectations" about his military's ability to meet objectives, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report on Dec. 1.
SBU: Russian ammunition, equipment depots in occupied Luhansk Oblast destroyed by drone strikes. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) shared a video of the operation, saying that intelligence about the locations of the depots had been gathered, which resulted in the nighttime strikes that destroyed an unknown amount of equipment and ammunition.
Behind the Lines
Six children will be returned to Ukraine from Russia under a deal brokered by Qatar, according to a Qatari official. The children are en route to Ukraine via Moscow, the source said. This is the second phase of a Qatar-mediated return of children, after four minors were returned in October.
More than 7m metric tons of cargo were transported via an alternative grain corridor after Russia withdrew from the deal allowing safe Black Sea exports of Ukrainian grain, said President Zelensky on Monday. Reuters reports Zelensky as making the announcement on Telegram messenger, where he praised the success of the ‘grain corridor’.
An industrial production facility caught fire in Arkhangelsk, Russia. The affected area is 1800m².
Military intelligence: Resistance blow up Russian refueling station in Melitopol. Ukrainian resistance forces blew up a gas station used by Russian occupation forces to refuel military equipment in Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Dec. 1, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Dec. 2.
"Ukrainian resistance forces destroyed several Russian soldiers and destroyed an enemy refueling station in Melitopol. Other military equipment was also damaged," the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence reports. The attack was carried out on December 1st at noon.
A fire occurred at the production facility of the Ozerny mining and processing plant in Buryatia. The plant has only been in operation since the summer of this year.
Processing of empty trucks begins at Poland-Ukraine border checkpoint. Customs services began processing empty trucks departing from Ukraine to Poland at the Uhryniv-Dolhobychuv checkpoint in accordance with an agreement between Kyiv and Warsaw, the State Border Guard service announced on Dec. 4.
Poland will demand that the EU restore permits for Ukrainian truckers, Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki said. Empty cargo trucks have crossed the border between Ukraine and Poland, in the first steps towards a de-escalation of a border blockade that has crippled Ukrainian trade. Estimates of the Ukrainian trade loss so far, exceed €400m ($440m).
As of the morning of 3 December, more than 2,500 lorries are queuing in Poland to cross into Ukraine, reports Andrii Demchenko, State Border Guard Service spokesman, during the national joint 24/7 newscast.
"Unfortunately, the blockade is continuing for the time being. The four areas where those participating in the action on the other side of the border are obstructing the movement of lorries on access roads are the Jagodzin, Krakovets and Rava-Ruska checkpoints, and from 23 November, the Shehyni checkpoint was added.
The chief of the Slovak UNAS truckers association, Stanislav Skala told Reuters the Slovak blockade was interrupted due to concerns over safety and access by emergency services after some truckers waiting in a line stretching for miles threatened to block roads far away from the crossing, which would cut access to villages en route. “So far we interrupted the (blockade) … In the column, some Ukrainian trucks started steering across the road,” he said.
Ruslan Stefanchuk, speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, has shared a still of a video which is said to show Russian soldiers executing two prisoners of war. Stefanchuk said:
“This is another crime committed by russian terrorists. Violation of the rules of war. The killing of unarmed soldiers. Russia has once again proved that it is a terrorist country for which there are no laws and norms of international law.”
Bulgarian president vetoes agreement on armored vehicles for Ukraine. Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov believes that the parliament will overcome Radev's veto. Bulgaria's legislature has the right to override the veto and send it further without any changes by a simple majority vote.
The Hungarian carrier Wizz Air has restarted inbound flights to Chisinau, Moldova, in eastern Europe, having suspended flights to the country in March due to tensions linked to Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Lukashenko arrives in China to meet with Xi. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko arrived in China for negotiations on economic and trade investments with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Lukashenko's press office reported on Dec. 3.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia planned interference campaigns to disrupt NATO accession of Finland, Sweden. In particular, Russia tried to inflame tensions that erupted after a series of public Quran burnings in Sweden, which resulted in protests breaking out around the Muslim world.
Russian citizens bought 5,780 apartments in Georgia from January to November 2023, reports the Georgian publication Business Media, citing the country’s Ministry of Justice. This is more than for the entire 2022: last year, Russian citizens bought 5,424 apartments in Georgia. If we add to this number the purchase of apartments by those who have both Russian and Georgian citizenship, we get 6,062 apartments for 2022.
Russia seeking to suppress domestic anti-mobilization sentiment. Russian authorities have sought to discredit the rare public display of dissent as well as offering increased cash payments for the families of mobilized soldiers if they agree to not protest.
The EU Commission has responded to remarks made by Orbán, who is insisting that the EU summit in mid-December should not even consider the issue of starting EU membership negotiations with Ukraine, reports EC representative Ana Pisonero at a briefing, as reported by European Pravda. Pisonero said that the European Commission does not agree with Orban's claims that the EC's position on Ukraine is "unfounded and poorly prepared".
"We do not believe that our proposal is unreasonable. On the contrary, we believe that Ukraine has done an amazing job. For our part, we have made recommendations for the start of negotiations, and now it is up to the member states to decide on our proposals," she stressed.
EU is under pressure not to “appease” Viktor Orbán by unfreezing billions of euros earmarked for Hungary, as the Hungarian prime minister threatens to derail EU plans to open accession talks with Ukraine and grant Kyiv fresh aid. Daniel Freund, a German Green member of the European parliament and critic of the Orbán government, urged the EU on Monday not to let Hungary off the hook.
“The Orbán government did not fulfil the necessary reforms,” he said. “No money must flow. If the commission decides otherwise, it is only for one reason: they’re trying to appease Orbán who went completely overboard with his veto threat.”
Allied Support
White House: US to run out of money for Ukraine by end of year. The U.S. is set to run out of funds to support Ukraine in the coming weeks if congress does not take action, White House Budget Office Director Shalanda Young informed congressional leaders in a letter on Dec. 4 in the letter:
I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks. There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money – and nearly out of time.
President Zelensky did not address US senators on Tuesday. A Ukrainian delegation did meet with some US senators in a meeting. He was supposed to speak to them during a classified briefing, as the Biden administration pushes Congress to approve new aid for Ukraine. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said the administration had invited Zelensky to address the senators so they “could hear directly from him precisely what’s at stake.” They will also be hearing from the secretaries of defence, state and other top national security officials.
Several Republican senators walked out of a classified briefing on Ukraine Tuesday as it descended into a row over the border crisis, after Zelensky, unexpectedly canceled a video-link appearance to appeal for continued US funding. The Senate GOP have tied aid packages to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, to the issue of migration at the southern border.
The Slovenian government will provide Ukraine with €1.5 million for humanitarian demining, the press service of the Ministry of Economy reports. Under the terms of the agreement, the funds will be provided this year on a non-refundable basis.
Germany hands over new military aid package, includes vehicles, drone-detection systems. The package included four HX81 tractors and their semi-trailers (used for the transportation of tanks and other heavy equipment), eight Zetros off-road trucks, four other vehicles, 15 HLR 338 precision rifles and 60,000 rounds of ammunition, five drone-detection systems, laser range finders, and more than 4,000 155mm shells.
US Defense Secretary Austin: 'We will not let Hamas or Putin win.' U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin criticized those endorsing "an American retreat from responsibility" at the Reagan National Defense Forum, emphasizing the necessity for consistent U.S. leadership to contribute to a world that remains as safe, free, and prosperous as possible.
DTEK, Danish company to create largest wind farm in Eastern Europe. The Tylihulska Wind Power Plant project, which will involve an investment of over $702 million, is a joint venture that includes DTEK, the Ukrainian and Danish governments, and Western banks.
A former U.S. ambassador is accused of working for years as a secret agent for Cuba as he rose up the State Department ranks. Manuel Rocha, a former ambassador to Bolivia, secretly aided Cuba’s “clandestine intelligence-gathering mission,” U.S. authorities said in a criminal complaint filed in federal court in Miami.
The astonishing disclosure and its potential effects have been consistently covered up by senior staff at the vast nuclear waste and decommissioning site, the investigation has found.
The Guardian has discovered that the authorities do not know exactly when the IT systems were first compromised. But sources said breaches were first detected as far back as 2015, when experts realised sleeper malware – software that can lurk and be used to spy or attack systems – had been embedded in Sellafield’s computer networks.