E-Stories up-date: Prigozhin moves on Moscow

Events of June 23 and this morning: video clips and commentary

E-Stories up-date: Prigozhin moves on Moscow

Due to the fast pace of breaking news on Prigozhin heading to Moscow, I’ll be publishing a special post with events as they have developed since yesterday. It may take some time so let me fill you in on what happened yesterday and early this morning.

Let’s start here: a video released by Prigozhin yesterday evening wherein he admits that Russia’s justification for the 24 February invasion was nonsense. This, unlike complaints a lack of ammo and military incompetence is a direct attack on the Kremlin.

Then an audio recording:

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back.

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

When the news hit that Prigozhin was ready to take down Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, I honestly believed that it was some sort of pys-ops intended for Western domestic audiences. The video released by Prigozhin in the forest where he says that the Russian forces hit them with a missile seemed fake to me. I watched and consulted with my colleagues. Was this real?

Prigozhin has been laying the blame of Russia’s poor performance in its war of aggression against Ukraine squarely on Shoigu and Gerasimov since the end of February 2023. There were even complaints starting in October 2022.

He released a series of videos complaining of not receiving enough ammunition and equipment, and he demanded that Shoigu address this issue, as reported on EuroFile.

I brushed this off Prigozhin’s need to keep pertinent to Putin, and in the public eye. Many have said that Prigozhin was allowed to criticise the Russian forces and their leaders because he was probably protected by Putin and/or someone in the security apparatus of the state. It was simply a tiff. Analysts like Andrei Soldatov, Olga Lautman and Mark Galleotti have also talked about Putin’s practice of pitting his underlings against each other so they always feel they must fight for his attention and favour. So I was suspicious, and couldn’t believe it was the beginnings of a possible coup.

As the evening wore on and Prigozhin’s Wagner forces were on the move towards Rostov-on-Don, I started to worry that this could have been a false flag operation. Could Prigozhin’s ‘mutiny’ (as Putin has defined it) really be cover for an ‘accident’ at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant or a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine? In those cases, Wagner or Ukraine could be blamed amidst the fog of war.

This morning the situation had changed: videos began to appear with columns of Wagnerites on their way to Rostov-on-Don, their arrival, Prigozhin’s chat with the representative of the Ministry of Defence in Rostov-on-Don and his personal statements recorded and published across various Telegram channels.

Max Seddon: First sighting of Prigozhin, in a video posted by a Wagner channel. It says he's in the Rostov army HQ "negotiating" with deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. "We want [Gerasimov] and Shoigu. Until they're here, we'll stay, block off Rostov, and head to Moscow," he says."

Prigozhin says they are "saving Russia" and are not leaving until their demands about certain military decisions are met. Prigozhin complains about his guys being mindlessly sent to die.

President Zelensky commented on Prigozhin’s mutiny on his Telegram account. He said that anyone who "chooses the path of evil destroys itself", and that "Russia's weakness is obvious". Although he does not mention Russia's President Putin by name, Zelensky appears to criticise the Russian leader for "throwing hundreds of thousands" into war. The longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries in Ukraine, "the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later", Zelensky says.

Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it. And all this is one person... although he is not able to lead to anything else. Russia's weakness is obvious.

As the morning rolled on, other videos emerged of Russian military leaders pleading with Prigozhin and the Wagnerites to lay down their weapons.

Based on the events unfolding now, it does seem like a coup attempt is underway. There’s still a part of me, however, that says to hold back and see how this develops to understand what the real endgame is. So I’ll leave you with this post now, and continue working on a longer one.