Feb 1 Buonasera Mag
Day 343: Pavlivka Slovyansk 360,000 Belgorod SBU Israel Lithuania $2.2bln Poland leopards radar Avakov EUtraining Johnson Georgia-A&Ps-Trad UKDef MT TheRigaFormat Kuleba Yushchenko Giles Davis
Catching up
Hop over the Scott Lucas’s EA Worldview for the latest up-dates from the US and the Middle East as well as Europe.
Stories we’re following…
UK Defense Ministry: Russian forces plan concentrated assault near Pavlivka, Vuhledar. Russia is preparing a concentrated assault around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar, located 50 km southwest of Donetsk, according to the U.K Defense Ministry. According to the report, Russians have advanced approximately several hundred meters beyond the established front line of the Kashlahach River.
During the day on February 1st, the Russian invaders carried out 2 missile strikes on the civil infrastructure of Slov'yans'k and Kramators'k in Donetsk region. They also carried out two air strikes and fired 24 shots from rocket salvo systems.
Budanov: Approximately 326,000 Russian soldiers currently fight in Ukraine. Chief of Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the Washington Post that approximately 326,000 Russian soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine. According to Budanov, only 9% of Russia's long-range Kalibr missiles remain. Those numbers can't be independently verified.
Putin asks Russia's Defense Ministry to prevent shelling of Belgorod. Russia has been shelling the Ukrainian regions bordering Russia, and Russian regions along the border have been shelled as well. Ukraine has not commented on whether it was responsibe for the attacks.
Putin has signed a decree that simplifies implementing terrorist threat alerts across Russia’s regions. The new law will make it easier for the authorities to search private vehicles for weapons and explosives when on medium-level alert.
Security Service arrests pro-Russian council member on suspicion of treason. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reports arresting a Siversk City Council member for alleged treason. The man represented the pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life party. The suspect is accused of collecting intelligence for the Russians on Ukrainian troop movements in neighboring Bakhmut since October 2022.
Lithuanian president: NATO countries should supply Ukraine with all the weapons it needs. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told LRT TV that NATO countries should not have "red lines" and supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win the war against Russia.
US readying $2.2 bln weapons package for Ukraine that includes longer-range rockets for the first time, according to two US officials — Reuters
Foreign Ministry: 120-140 Western tanks to be delivered. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine would receive 120-140 tanks in the first round from its Western allies.
Treasury: No sign that US funds were misused in Ukraine. "We have no indication that U.S. funds have been misused in Ukraine," Treasury spokesperson Megan Apper told Reuters.
Poland aims to reduce training time for Leopard 2 tank crews to 5 weeks. Poland will try to reduce the time it takes to train Ukrainian soldiers to use Leopard 2 battle tanks to five weeks, reported Reuters.
PM: Greece won't send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that his country would not send its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine because "they are absolutely necessary for (Greece's) defense posture."
France to provide more radar systems, missiles, artillery to Ukraine. GM 200, a medium-range radar produced by French company Thales Group, can provide launch and impact threat coordinates from multiple simultaneous threats.
EU-Ukraine summit to praise Kyiv's progress but unlikely to commit to quick accession. The European Union's top officials, set to visit Kyiv on Feb. 3 for the EU-Ukraine Summit, won't commit to the country's quick entry into the union, Euractiv reported.
EU to train 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The European Union plans to train 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers in total, double the initial 15,000 goal, some EU officials announced on Feb. 1, according to German media Redaktzions Netzwerk Deutschland.
Boris Johnson says it’s up to Ukrainians to define what victory is, but that it’s his own “instinct” that Kyiv should be “taking back their entire country”. Putin needs to be “punished” for his “decision to change borders by force” in 2014, he says, referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Norway's 5-year aid package for Ukraine to be revealed on Feb. 7. Norway may provide some of its German-made Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine as well, after Germany gave permission for other countries to do so last week.
Austria, Hungary agree not to supply weapons to Ukraine. Austria and Hungary have agreed not to send military assistance to Ukraine, Austrian Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner and her Hungarian counterpart Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky said at a meeting in Budapest on Jan. 30, cited by Euractiv.
UK government rules out sending fighter jets to Ukraine. The U.K. Prime Minister's spokesman said on Jan. 31 that "it is not practical" to send British fighter jets to Ukraine, as quoted by Sky News. Germany’s vice-chancellor, Robert Habeck, has spoken out against his country delivering fighter jets to Ukraine, saying such a move would “probably” be a step too far for western allies weighing up support for Kyiv’s cause against fears of being drawn into an outright war.
US sanctions Iranian entities for supplying drones to Russia. Over the course of the invasion, Russia has started cooperating with Iran more closely to have more access to its kamikaze drones, which it has launched against Ukraine.
Staff, Budanov elaborates on special operations, past and future- NVU
Explosions like those at Russia’s Engels-2 air base will keep occurring until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with U.S. newspaper the Washington Post on Jan. 31.
“This shattered their illusions of security,” Budanov said. “There are people who plant explosives. There are drones. Until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, there will be problems inside Russia.”
He also suggested that the Kremlin should fear collaborators in its midst. “There are indeed people who are very easy to work with on that territory, people who understand that Russia should be different,” he added. “And we support such people.”
In early January 2023, Budanov made similar statements in an interview with U.S. network ABC. He did not take responsibility for the strikes on Russian airbase, but suggested that such strikes would be “deeper and deeper.”
Staff, Georgia is drifting into the Kremlin’s orbit- The Economist
The road from Tbilisi airport to the old town—a web of steep cobbled streets with ornate balconies and the mouthwatering smell of khinhali dumplings and khachapuri cheese bread—bears the name of George W. Bush, the first American president to visit the small Caucasian country, in 2005. Saluting its democratic reforms and thanking it for sending troops to Iraq, Mr Bush called Georgia “a beacon of liberty” and told its youthful and restless reformist president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who was swept to power in 2003 by the first “colour” revolution, that Georgia had “a solid friend in America”.
These days it is the Kremlin that is praising Georgia, a country it invaded in 2008, for toeing its line and refusing to join Western sanctions against Russia. The 55-year-old Mr Saakashvili is under guard in hospital on the outskirts of Tbilisi, fighting dementia and muscle atrophy. His mother, who visits him daily, says he has memory lapses and needs a walking-frame. “My health is in deep shit,” Mr Saakashvili wrote to your correspondent in a letter. “Besides all kinds of bad symptoms, what makes me desperate is a terrible memory loss.” Mr Saakashvili believes that he has been poisoned, and says he lapsed into a brief coma after an earlier move to a different prison hospital. In December his legal team distributed a toxicology report said to identify the presence of heavy metals in his body, in which the toxicologist expressed the opinion he had been poisoned. On January 31st his associates said he had been moved to intensive care, though the authorities have denied this.
Programming note…
The Russian Media Propaganda Machine- Resolute Square Podcast
Russian media is propaganda. Full stop. Russia expert Julia Davis created and operates the Russian Media Monitor and joins Rick to discuss Russian media's Ukraine invasion propaganda and Russia's meddling in the US Elections. And Rick has a very heartfelt message for this episode's entry on The Enemies List.