Feb 1: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
I don’t think we fully realise what it must mean for the released POWs to be reunited with their families, and how they have feared for the safety and lives of their loved ones. In the video, three men who have been released call their relatives for the first time since being released. (Video: published by Noel Report) More than 900 Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal are still in captivity.
"Yes, yes, dad, it's me, I'm already in Ukraine, they exchanged me, I'm already in Ukraine, I'm alive, everything is fine, dad".
Today: European leaders are again gathering for a summit just 1,5 month after the December meeting in Brussels. The same issue is on the agenda: €50 billion in aid for Ukraine. Let’s all cross fingers.
Belgium's Prime Minister De Croo said he was confident that EU member states would find an agreement on financial aid to Ukraine. He added there was no alternative to a compromise on Ukraine aid among member states and that such an agreement was crucial.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces shell Sumy Oblast 216 times in one day. Russian forces shelled northeastern Sumy Oblast 216 times in 43 separate attacks throughout Jan. 31, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast injure 3 civilians. Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast over the day on Jan. 31 injured three people, including two in Beryslav and one in Tiahynka, regional officials reported.
Russian forces hit Kharkiv hospital. Russian forces targeted the village of Velykyi Burluk in the Kupiansk region of Kharkiv Oblast on Jan. 31 with guided aerial bombs, damaging a civilian hospital, regional governor Oleh Syniehubov wrote on Telegram. No casualties were reported.
Russian attacks kill 2, injure 17 over past day. Russia carried out attacks against 10 of Ukraine's oblasts over the past day, killing at least two civilians and injuring a least 17 others, regional authorities reported early on Jan. 31.
UN Court rules Russia broke international anti-terrorism financing treaty. Russia violated an international convention on prohibiting terrorist financing by supporting its proxies in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2014, the UN International Court of Justice in The Hague ruled on Jan. 31.
207 Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home to their families on Jan 31. 95 of the Armed Forces; 56 National Guards; 26 border guards; 29 Territorial Defense soldiers; an officer of the National Police of Ukraine.
Among them the defenders of Mariupol, Azovstal and Snake Island.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 31.
Ukrainian commander says Russian airbase in Crimea hit in attack. Balbek airfield in Russian-occupied Crimea was hit in an attack, Air Force Commander General Mykola Oleshchuk said on Telegram on Jan. 31.
A Ukrainian drone hit the Nevsky Mazut oil refinery in St Peterburg. Three oil deposit tanks caught fire. Russia reports 'incident' at St. Petersburg oil refinery, media claim potential drone strike. The Ukrainian media outlet RBC claimed that a drone had struck the Nevsky Mazut oil refinery in the city. Citing unnamed sources, RBC said that the strike was carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). (See video)
Explosions were also reported in Krasnador and occupied Crimea in 3 locations yesterday. The Ukrainian forces continue to target sensitive Russian logistics and command centres, like the Balbek airfield in occupied Crimea.
Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed a hit on Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea.
"Did you know that the 204th Sevastopol Tactical Aviation Brigade is part of the Ukrainian Air Force? Her base is in Belbek. Ukrainian aviators will definitely return home to their home airfield. In the meantime, I thank everyone who contributed to the cleansing of Crimea from the Russian presence," he adds to this video.
Russian appointed governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhayev claims a Ukrainian attack was 'repelled'. "According to preliminary information, more than 6 missiles were shot down. There was only minor damage due to falling debris," a summary of his message reads. Videos have emerged showing fire fighters rushing to the scene.
ATESH partisan movement set a relay cabinet on fire in the Tambov region in Russia. The use of the railway was stopped, the movement reports.
Military intelligence confirms Russia used North Korean shells in Ukraine. Russian forces have already used North Korean shells at the front in Ukraine, military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov told Ukrinform on Jan. 31.
Behind the Lines
ISW: Russian forces and occupation officials continue efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural and ethnic identity in occupied territories. Russian forces reportedly formed a “secret” battalion of penal recruits to conduct official operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast but are reportedly disbanding the battalion.
PM Shmyhal: Ukraine ends 2nd month of winter with stable energy sector. "Last year, we lived in conditions of constant restrictions and blackouts. Today, no such measures implemented or planned in any region," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a governmental meeting.
Minister: Ukraine cannot outproduce Russia, needs to focus on advanced technology. With over $100 billion in U.S. and EU aid stalled over political disputes, Kyiv has been focusing on revitalizing the domestic industry, aiming to build up a homemade arsenal of drones and missiles.
Bloomberg: Estonian general: Russia likely responsible for uptick in GPS jamming in Eastern Europe. "Russia has demonstrated its electronic warfare capabilities elsewhere, not just in Ukraine and the Baltic countries," said Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. "They’re definitely quite strong in this."
Russia suffers large-scale internet outages. Hundreds of websites and services were unaccessible, including the Yandex search engine, the Sberbank bank, the VKontakte social media platform, as well as state services.
Bulgaria issues warrants for 6 Russians accused of arms warehouses' explosions. The six suspects, whose name was not mentioned, are accused of involvement in the 2011 explosion in blast at EMCO Emilian Gebrev's facility Lovnidol, two successive blasts at the IMZ-Sopot facility in Iganovo in 2015, and another one at the Arsenal plant near Muglizh in 2020.
Finnish court charges Russian neo-Nazi fighter with entering country illegally. Yan Petrovsky is a co-leader of Rusich, a Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary unit that has fought against Ukraine. He is accused by Ukraine, and now Finland, of committing war crimes during the Russian invasion of Donbas that started in 2014.
RFE/RL: Moldovan companies supplied aircraft parts to Russia. Three Moldovan companies continued to supply aircraft parts worth around $15 million to Russia in 2023 despite European sanctions, RFE/RL Moldova reported on Jan. 31.
Putin will visit Nato member Turkey to meet President Tayyip Erdogan on 12 February, a Turkish official has said.
Turkey is also not a party to the Rome Statute of the ICC, so Putin can travel to Turkey without fear of being arrested under the warrant.
Turkey has sought to maintain good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv since Russia invaded Ukraine. It has provided military support to Ukraine and voiced support for its territorial integrity, but also opposes sanctions on Russia in principle.
Ankara is seeking to convince Russia to return to the so-called Black Sea Grain Initiative after Moscow withdrew last July, ending a year of protected exports from Ukrainian ports amid the war. Erdogan said alternatives to the deal could not provide a lasting solution.
Meanwhile in Russia
Bloomberg: Russian government forming its own mercenary group in Africa. With much of Wagner's network and business interests still in place in Africa, the Russian government has sought to capitalize on existing relationships with countries in the Sahel.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: We were invited to a Putin campaign event. There were pop stars, there were cosmonauts, and some curious conversations.
Russia's State Duma adopts bill on property seizure for 'discrediting' Russian military. The bill, first introduced in the Duma on Jan. 22, would allow Russian authorities to seize the property of even those Russian citizens who criticized the Kremlin and have left the country but, for instance, still benefit from renting out their houses or apartments in Russia.
Russian dissident Kara-Murza transferred to punishment cell in new prison, his lawyer says. Jailed Russian journalist and opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza has been transferred to a punishment block in a new penal colony in the Russian city of Omsk, independent Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta reported on Jan. 30, citing his lawyer.
Julia Davis: Russia's totally real, not at all fake or phony presidential election. Watch the contenders for Putin's spot talk about their humble ambitions.
With absolutely no proof, Putin claimed that a U.S. Patriot missile was used to shoot down the Il-76 that crashed near Belgorod last week. Furthermore, he claims 65 Ukrainian POWs were on the plane, and besides a list of POW names, some of which had already returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap, the Russian administration has presented no evidence that the Ukrainians were on board.
During talks with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said that China will continue to support Russia on the 'Ukrainian issue' despite ongoing pressure from the US and Europe.
"Even our defensive cooperation with the EU came under pressure, but we won't change course. They will not interfere in the Russian-Chinese cooperation."
Latvian member of European Parliament accused of spying officially under investigation. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola "takes these allegations very seriously and is referring the case to the Advisory Committee on the Code of Conduct," a parliamentary spokesperson said.
ISW: Russia exploiting far-right nationalism in Europe against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also explicitly invoked the various territorial claims that irredentist movements in countries neighboring Ukraine have made.
Allied Support
US Under Secretary Victoria Nuland arrives in Kyiv. "Today we will meet government leaders, veterans, and civil society to underscore our shared commitment to defeating Russian aggression in Ukraine," U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink wrote on the social media platform X.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to urge Congress to swiftly provide additional support to Ukraine, cautioning that a failure to act could benefit Putin and have dire consequences. Yellen will discuss collective support with EC executives.
3 NATO countries sign deal to speed up military deployments to eastern flank. Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands approved a deal aimed at speeding up the process of cross-border movement of troops and weapons along one of the main corridors leading from the North Sea to NATO's eastern flank, Reuters reported on Jan. 30.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with House Speaker Mike Johnson and other United States congressmen on Tuesday to discuss support for Ukraine. During the meeting he thanked the US for its support to Ukraine and emphasized that this assistance remains crucial for its survival and the stability of Europe.
Tusk: EU will find way to pass Ukraine aid funding 'with or without Orban'. The European Union will find a way to pass a proposed 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package for Ukraine "with or without" the support of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk concluded at a press conference on Jan. 30.
Telex: In a closed-door parliamentary debate, Orbán acknowledged that Hungary cannot obstruct Ukraine's EU accession. Despite objections, Orbán expects Ukraine's EU membership to progress relatively quickly, citing Telex.
The EU expects to reach 52% of its target to send 1m rounds of shells to Ukraine by March this year, while the bloc plans to train another 20,000 soldiers, said the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell.
Defense Minister Umerov alerted EU allies about a severe shortage of artillery shells, emphasizing a huge numerical disadvantage against Russia, which deploys 3 times more firepower. Umerov said Ukraine can only fire 2000 shells a day along a 1500km front.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov participated in a meeting with over 120 UAV manufacturers organized by the Brave1 defense tech cluster. The Defense Procurement Agency is set to conclude long-term contracts, aiming for a substantial increase in the number of drones (hundreds of thousands) at the front in 2024. The minister highlighted the deterrent effect of Ukrainian drones on potential adversaries.
CIA director: Failing to pass Ukraine aid would be mistake 'of historic proportions'. Western allies failing to support Ukraine with sufficient military aid would mark a mistake "of historic proportions," CIA Director William Burns wrote in a column for Foreign Affairs Magazine on Jan. 30.
Pavel: Europe, Ukraine need to prepare for a Trump presidency. Europe and Ukraine must consider the realistic possibility that Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and very quickly conclude an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Czech President Petr Pavel said on Jan. 29, as reported by Polish media outlet TVN24.
First Lady Zelenska arrived in Latvia. Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska arrived in Latvia on Jan. 31 for a two-day visit to meet top Latvian officials and participate in the conference "Russia's war on children" in Riga.
Armenia formally joins ICC. Armenia formally joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Jan. 31, months after ratifying the Court's Rome Statute, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported on Jan. 31.
There are more Russian spies in EU Parliament, Latvian lawmakers say
As the European Parliament investigates a Latvian lawmaker suspected of being a Russian spy, her co-nationals in the chamber are warning there are others like her.
“There are other MEPs … knowingly serving Russia’s interests,” wrote Sandra Kalniete, Roberts Zīle and Ivars Ijabs, from the center-right European People’s Party, right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists and liberal Renew respectively, in a letter obtained by POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook.
Parliament on Monday opened an internal probe into Latvian MEP Tatjana Ždanoka after an independent Russian investigative newspaper, the Insider, reported she had been working as an agent for the Russian secret services for years.
She was one of just 13 MEPs who in March 2022 voted against a resolution condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which caused her to be expelled from the Greens/EFA group. Ždanoka now sits as a non-attached MEP.
“We are convinced that Ždanoka is not an isolated case,” the three Latvian MEPs wrote, citing concerns over suspicious “public interventions, voting record[s], organised events, as well as covert activities.”
“The Greens/EFA group must bear a degree of responsibility for long-term cooperation, financial support, and informational exchange with Ždanoka from July 2004 till March 2022,” the group added.
The Latvian Socialists did not sign the MEPs’ letter — and there are no Latvian Greens in Parliament after Ždanoka’s expulsion from the group.
Every time I read anything about Erdoğan I am just boggled at how they are even still in NATO and why anyone puts up with his nonsense. It seems like he wants to have his cake, pieces of everyone else's cake and just, well, eat all the cake.
As a former video editor, great short piece on the prisoner exchange - the music was especially piercing from an emotional standpoint.
Thank goodness for Janet Yellen and William Burns!! I mean the government nor the CIA are perfect but at least they can see what most Republicans can't while they are currently completely glazed over by the Trump trance.