Feb 10: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelensky’s evening address: Changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Today, I made the decision to renew the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I am grateful to General Zaluzhnyi for two years of defense.
I appreciate every victory we have achieved together, thanks to all the Ukrainian warriors who are heroically carrying this war on their shoulders. We candidly discussed issues in the army that require change. Urgent change.
I proposed to General Zaluzhnyi that we further remain together on the Ukrainian state team. I will be grateful for his acceptance of this proposal.
Me: listen to the entire address.
Umerov: 'A decision was made to change the Armed Forces' leadership.' Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said a decision was made "on the need to change the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Umerov thanked Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi for his service.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: Ukraine downs 10 drones overnight. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 10 of the 16 Shahed-type drones Russia launched from the Cape of Chauda in occupied Crimea and Russia's Kursk region, the Air Force reported on Feb. 9.
JayInKyiv: “Kharkiv is being totally destroyed by Russian missiles and drones tonight. Formerly a city of 2,000,000 being reduced to cinders.”
14 residential buildings are on fire in Kharkiv, 50 residents have been evacuated, the mayor said. Russian drones hit the gas station.
Russian attack on Odesa injures 1. A Russian drone attack on the city of Odesa injured a 44-year-old man, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported.
Russian attack on Avdiivka kills 72-year-old woman. Russian shelling in Avdiivka killed a 72-year-old woman, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Feb. 8.
Russian attack on Kherson Oblast village injures man. A 58-year-old man suffered a blast injury and a wound to his head when Russia hit Romashkove near Kherson, the regional authorities said on Telegram.
The Russians dropped 7 guided aerial bombs on border communities in Sumy Oblast. As a result, 3 employees of an agricultural enterprise died, and 4 more were injured.
Ukraine returns 100 POWs from Russian captivity. One hundred Ukrainian prisoners of war have been returned home from Russian captivity, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 8. According to Russia's Defense Ministry, Moscow also received 100 soldiers back.
Moscow: The roof of a residential skyscraper is burning in the entire area of Chernyakhovsky street, fire of about 2000 square meters.
A freight train caught fire near Perm, presumably after an explosion on a gas pipeline. Three tanks are on fire, and the fire has spread to a nearby residential building. The accident occurred near the village of Kueda. Emergency services arrived at the scene. Preliminarily, one person was injured.
A fire broke out at the Ilya oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia. Local channels report that the cause is a drone attack. The Russian Defense Ministry officially announced that air defense forces allegedly destroyed and intercepted 19 drones overnight.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on February 8.
The Russians have a commander's embargo on armored vehicles in Kherson Oblast, operational command south spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk said.
“For a long time, we have observed that they have a ban on using armored vehicles during assaults. In the beginning, they carried out assaults according to the classics - with the support of armored vehicles, but they lost them very abundantly. But now they have stopped and we learned that they have a ban. The assaults are carried out directly by groups of infantry," she reports.
WaPo: Ukraine's military faces a critical shortage of infantry, impacting morale as Russia intensifies attacks.
Soldiers and commanders report severe personnel deficits, with some units having less than 40 infantry troops out of the required 200. President Zelenskyi considers replacing Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi, amid disagreements over mobilizing new troops while financial constraints and stalled aid packages hinder recruitment efforts, causing concern among soldiers on the front line. Troop shortages lead to extended deployments, exhaustion, and diminished defenses against Russian advances. The debate on mobilization aggravates tensions and threatens the front's stability, WSJ writes.
ISW: The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it recently conducted a cyberattack against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) preventing Russian forces from automatically operating an unspecified number of likely first-person view (FPV) drones.
There were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on the Il-76 that crashed near Belgorod, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexei Danilo said.
“Were our prisoners there? I can say for sure: no. I say this on the basis of the experience we had after Tehran and on the basis of what happened afterwards. If this actually happened, the amount of biological material from the dead would be significant."
NYT: American officials confirm Patriot missile shot down Il-76 plane. The American-made Patriot missile system is likely responsible for the Russian Il-76 plane crash, American officials anonymously told The New York Times. The plane was also likely carrying at least some Ukrainian prisoners, officials reported.
A Russian Ka-52 was shot down in the Avdiivka direction on Wednesday by Ukrainian forces with the use of MANPADS, Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi reports.
Russian drone specialist talks on telegram about recently emerged "drone hunger" in Russian ranks and suspects sabotage.
According to him, the only two drone repair centres near the frontline in the Donbas stopped repairing everyone's drones and just focused on their specific units. This relates to both FPV and reconnaissance drones. They can't fundraise for drones as this is illegal and all orders must come through MoD and it takes forever.
The recent strike on a training centre which killed 20 operators adds to the conspiracy.
Behind the Lines
First ship with humanitarian wheat shipment in 2024 leaves Ukraine. The Sky Gate bulk carrier is shipping 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria. The vessel is moving through the temporary Black Sea corridor.
UK Ministry of Defence: Ukraine's ports exported more agricultural products in December 2023 than at any other point since Russia's invasion, driven by the reopening of Ukraine's main Black Sea port. The health of these export routes remain essential and vital for the long run.
Ambassador: Ukraine facing 'critical shortage' of missiles, military hardware. Ukraine is facing a "critical shortage" of military hardware, including missiles, urging U.S. lawmakers to support a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine, Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said in an interview with Bloomberg published on Feb. 8.
UK ambassador: Ukraine should not expect too much at Washington NATO summit. "I don't expect a big leap forward on that mainly because of the likely situation on the ground," U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey told Politico, adding that London is "absolutely convinced that Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO."
Ariana Gic: “We can be certain that Moscow is preparing a “special operation” against a NATO Member as part of its strategy of escalating to de-escalate.”
UnitedU4U: discussion “Together until Victory: Western Military support for Ukraine”
Denmark's Defense Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, warns of a heightened risk of NATO being attacked by Russia. Poulsen states that the situation has changed significantly, prompting the need for Denmark to be prepared for potential Russian aggression against NATO. As a response, he emphasizes the importance of advancing investments in defense capabilities to enhance readiness for the worst-case scenario.
Finland extends border closure with Russia for 2 months. Finland fully closed its border with Russia in late November 2023 to prevent an influx of migrants from entering the country via Russia. In November alone, around 900 third-country asylum seekers entered Finland from Russia.
Renewed protests by Polish farmers have disrupted movement through several checkpoints on the Polish-Ukrainian border. The farmers, numbering around 100 at the Medyka checkpoint, and around 200 at the Grebenne checkpoint, are allowing limited passage, planning to permit 1 or 2 trucks per hour. Passenger vehicles and buses are less affected.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin’s visit to Türkiye, which was planned for February 12, has been postponed. A diplomatic source in Turkey reported this to TASS, without specifying details. Earlier CNN Türk also hinted towards a cancellation of the visit.
From March 15 to 17—the days of voting in the Russian presidential elections—lotteries and quizzes with various prizes are launched in various regions of Russia. They are being carried out as part of an initiative to increase turnout in the presidential election. Participation in them is possible by receiving questionnaires at or near polling stations, sources tell The Insider.
“As a rule, they are completely left to the regions, so everyone sets their own rules. Those who are richer can be lured by apartments, but, of course, no one buys them, but “asks” them from developers. Those who are poorer make do with inexpensive equipment,” explained the publication’s interlocutor.
Russian scientists are complaining to Putin about China and in particular their cheap equipment.
"At the end of 2023, we see that the logistics chains have built up, and mainly Chinese scientific instruments have entered our market, which have also started to develop very actively at the same time. And now we need to compete not with the high price of Western instruments, but with the very low price of Chinese, in general, Asian countries, which have very cheap production. They are very active in using damping prices and have a much larger market than our Russian manufacturers. As a result, it is important for us now, with the arrival of Chinese manufacturers, not to lose the impulse that we acquired in 2022."
Tucker Carlson releases interview with Putin. Controversial far-right commentator and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released his interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 8. Throughout the interview, Carlson seldomly interrupts Putin as he echoes Russian propaganda, sharing false narratives on a wide variety of topics, including Putin's justification for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Telegram channels reported that the interview with Carlson and Carlson himself was not to Putin's liking, and the interview itself was considered a failure:
According to reports, Putin didn't like Tucker Carlson - "a snob and a useful idiot who got a meaningful fee, but was lazy and lacked creativity." Kovalchuk family believes they could have done better with Tucker Carlson, but "everything was wasted." There's a wave of complaints in the Kremlin.
State support measures are not capable of ensuring sustainable economic growth in Russia alone, and for this it is necessary to use citizens’ funds, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Ivan Chebeskov said at the Russian Business Week.
“The most important source of financial resources for ensuring sustainable economic growth is investment money from both citizens and institutional investors, if we are talking about sustainable growth,” Chebeskov said at an event organized by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP)
“When we talk about government support measures, we understand that it is only good at certain levels,” the official added (he was quoted by TASS ).
Allied Support
US announces ban on import of Russian diamonds. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Feb. 8 imposed a ban on non-industrial diamonds mined in Russia, prohibiting their export regardless of whether they were processed in Russia or substantially transformed in a third country.
Bloomberg: The European Union has proposed sanctioning about 55 companies and more than 60 individuals as part of a new package of measures to mark two years since Russia invaded Ukraine. The restrictions would target individuals and firms involved in producing weapons and supplying key technologies and electronics used by Russian defense firms to build the armaments.
The Italian Senate has given the green light to a weapons decree which extends the authorization for the transfer of military vehicles, materials and equipment to Ukraine. Out of 260 deputies, 218 voted in favor, 42 against.
Finland provided Ukraine with a new €190 million package of military aid. This is the 22nd package that Finland has distributed to Ukraine. The content is not reported, as usual by Finland, due to security reasons.
Ukraine, Denmark start negotiations on security guarantee agreement. Ukraine and Denmark have started negotiations on a bilateral security guarantee agreement, Ukraine's President's Office announced on Feb. 8.
Lithuania handed over a new military aid package to Ukraine.
"Today, a new assistance package reached Ukrainian Armed Forces: essential winter equipment & tens of thousands of warm clothing sets," the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense reports.
The Norwegian Government has recommended to the Norwegian Parliament the acquisition of 10 additional NASAMS launchers and 4 fire control centers worth $320 million in order to provide more to Ukraine, while reacquiring systems for their own defense.
RND: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged allies in Europe and the United States to provide more support for Ukraine at the start of his visit to Washington.
Scholz emphasized the importance of sending a clear signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine will endure and be substantial. He called for increased efforts from all nations, stating that the support pledged so far is not enough. Scholz warned against a reduction in military support for Ukraine, stressing the need to prevent Russia from winning. Military aid for Ukraine will be the main topic of discussions during his visit to Washington.
Armenia donated 10 tons of medicines to Ukraine for a military hospital.
The European Commission expects to provide framework conditions for negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union in the coming weeks, according to Ana Pisonero, the spokesperson for the European Commission. Pisonero emphasized that there are no special conditions or preferences for Ukraine, and the enlargement process is based on achievements. She commended Ukraine's progress, considering the challenging conditions of the ongoing conflict.
Ukraine plans to hold a summit with the Western Balkan countries in the near future, President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić announced. The summit, likely the Ukraine-Southeastern Europe summit, is expected to take place on February 28 in Tirana, Albania.
Australian veterans and engineers aim to prevent disposal of retired Taipan helicopters by volunteering to restore them for Ukraine. Despite the government deeming operational restoration unfeasible, the group seeks to repurpose abandoned airframes.
NYT: The Supreme Court appeared poised to reject a state challenge to Donald Trump’s eligibility to hold office again. When the court will rule is unclear. The court heard arguments about whether the former president’s attempts to subvert the 2020 election disqualify him from holding office.
CNN: FCC votes to outlaw scam robocalls that use AI-generated voices. The Federal Communications Commission said Thursday it is immediately outlawing scam robocalls featuring fake, artificial intelligence-created voices, cracking down on so-called “deepfake” technology that experts say could undermine election security or supercharge fraud.
