Feb 12: E-Stories
Day718 RUattacks Kherson Kharkiv CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies Trump A&P UAWorld ISW UKDef Avdeeva Brink Zabrisky PS01 SpyMuseum Davis McConnell Zubrin Standish Trump Trad Sandu IWP
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: Ukraine downs 40 drones overnight. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 40 of the 45 Shahed-type drones Russia launched from the occupied Crimea, the Air Force reported on Feb. 11.
Russia shells 8 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces launched 28 attacks on Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast on Feb. 10 targeting eight communities, the regional administration reported. The shelling caused at least 150 explosions in the area.
Zelensky on latest Kharkiv attack: 'Terror cannot go unpunished.' A Russian drone attack struck a gas station in Kharkiv overnight on Feb. 10 creating a large fire that engulfed 15 residential homes and killed at least seven people, including three children.
Two out of the five rockets launched by Russia at Kharkiv in the morning were of North Korean origin. Preliminary examination of the fragments indicates that these are North Korean HVASON 11GA (KN-23) missiles.
A Russian drone strike on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, killed seven people, including three children, Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Syniehubov reported Saturday. A Ukrainian prosecutor, her husband, and their three small children were among the seven killed after the strike hit an oil depot, triggering blazes that burned half a street to the ground, officials said. An elderly couple living in the same street were also killed in the attack that mayor Ihor Terekhov said injured 57 people and razed 15 homes.
Zarina Zabrisky from Kherson: yesterday, Russians hit Karl's building. A US volunteer, he helps the locals a lot. Russia carried out 66 shelling strikes in the Kherson Oblast, 353 shells, fired (artillery, mortars, anti-aircraft guns, drones, aviation), 52 shells at Kherson, 1 killed, 5 injured.
Russian attack in Kherson Oblast kills woman, injures son. Russian forces attacked the village of Tokarivka in Kherson Oblast, killing a woman and injuring a man, her son, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Feb. 10.
Governor: Teenager escapes Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. A 16-year-old girl and her caretaker have escaped Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast to Ukrainian-controlled territory, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Feb. 11.
Zelensky has survived more than 12 attempts on his life since the start of the war -Independent. At least 2 of them were prevented thanks to CIA intelligence. US intelligence warned Zelensky about the threat of assassination at a secret meeting in Kyiv before the start of the war.
Combat Situation Update
Commander: Russia increasingly deploys armored groups to storm Avdiivka. To storm Donetsk Oblast’s Avdiivka, Russia is increasingly deploying armored groups alongside its assault infantry groups, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukraine's Tavria group fighting on the southeastern front lines, reported on Feb. 11.
Russian forces approaching Avdiivka's supply artery west of the Coke and Chemical Plant could complicate logistics and the ability to reinforce Ukrainian troops, leading to a potential operational encirclement, warns Dmytro Lykhovy, spokesman for the Defense Forces of Tavria region.
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Bakhmut amid continued positional engagements in the area on February 10.
ISW: Russian drone footage published on February 9 showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Klishchiivka in the Bakhmut direction. Similar previous footage has shown Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Stepove in the Avdiivka direction in December 2023.
VOA: F-16s are ‘exceeding expectations’ of Ukraine's pilots. Ukrainian pilots are "very impressed" with American-made F-16 fighter jets, the Ukrainian service of the Voice of America reported.
"The F-16, if it comes to Ukraine, will become an imminent target for Russia. Therefore, we must do everything to ensure that the infrastructure being prepared is adapted. This is not a very simple process, especially when we are under daily shelling," Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.
Zelensky announces more changes to military leadership. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced more changes to Ukraine's military leadership during his evening address on Feb. 10, naming two new deputies of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and three new deputies of the Chief of the General Staff Anatolii Barhylevych.
Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk became the new Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine. Zelenskyi signed the relevant decree. Oleksandr Syrskyi held this position before he was appointed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.
Minister: Ukraine aims to shift electronic warfare production to commercial markets. Ukraine aims to shift electronic warfare (EW) production to commercial markets, said Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
PS01: Russians use starlinks at their positions. So far, we are talking about dozens of devices on the front line. But there may be hundreds of them after some time. Devices can enter the Russian Federation through third countries where there are no sanctions. At the same time, the quality of the Internet, which is distributed by Starlink to the Ukrainian troops, has dropped sharply.
Financial Times: "Ukraine’s GUR...said on Telegram on Sunday that radio intercepts confirmed the use of Starlink terminals by Russian units operating in the occupied Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine... 'This is starting to take on a systemic nature.'"
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine's NSDC, stresses the critical need for increased weapons supply to counter ongoing Russia's aggression. The influx of weapons from Iran and North Korea to Russia has altered the front line dynamics, he says.
Behind the Lines
Memorial: Ukrainian accused of espionage dies in Russian custody. Viktor Demchenko, a 71-year-old Ukrainian whom Russia accused of espionage and participation in a terrorist organization, has allegedly died in pretrial detention in Russia’s Rostov region, the Memorial human rights group reported on Feb. 11.
Russians are destroying mosaics in temporarily occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea in an attempt to erase Ukrainian culture. This beauty doesn’t exist anymore. Authors are Yurii Belkin and Heorhii Bondar. They are also stealing artefacts as well. Russian textbooks that have distorted and published outright lies about history are now used in schools across the occupied territories.
Maria Avdeeva: “Russia actively exploits cracks in Western democracies, weaponizing "freedom of speech" for manipulation. Discussed defense strategies with Swedish Parl's Constitutional Committee. We must be proactive to protect our shared democratic values.”
Romania scrambles F-16s amid Russian drone strikes on Odesa Oblast. Romania's Defense Ministry said that jets stationed at an airbase near Fetesti, some 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, were summoned in response to perform reconnaissance.
Media: Russian military increasingly using Starlink terminals on battlefield. According to Militarnyi, the Starlink terminals are likely being procured through intermediaries in third countries via parallel imports, making it near impossible to trace.
Movement of trucks at checkpoint on Polish border resumed after blockade by farmers. Polish farmers launched a blockade at the Medyka-Shehyni crossings with Ukraine on Feb. 9. According to border control, the protest ended at 11:30 a.m. local time and 220 trucks are now expected to enter Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Russia
Nepali lawmaker and former Foreign Minister, Bimala Rai Paudyal, told the upper house of the county’s parliament that between 14.000-15.000 Nepalis are fighting in Ukraine on behalf of Russia, citing testimony from men returning from the war zone.
Residents of the Moscow region were offered free training in in-demand specialties in the public utilities sector due to a shortage of personnel. Corresponding announcements on behalf of the regional Ministry of Housing and Communal Services appeared on the websites of city district administrations.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence said there are indications that Russia’s war with Ukraine is contributing to a shortage of healthcare professionals across Russia. In its latest intelligence update, the MoD adds the heavy resource and financial burden of the war is negatively affecting a range of civilian sectors.
Hungarian PM Orbán said that Ukraine, as a future NATO and EU member, offers no additional defense to Europe. He suggests Ukraine should serve as a buffer between Russia and the West. He also said the West is declining and claims the EP is a madhouse.
Stoltenberg: West must be prepared for 'decades-long confrontation' with Russia. "If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin wins in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that Russian aggression will not spread to other countries," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned.
Julia Davis: “Margarita Simonyan recalled Tucker Carlson's persistent requests over the years to arrange an interview with Putin. Simonyan said she cried watching it, and uneducated Americans who don't read were "stunned" by the depths of Putin's historical knowledge.”
Russia’s registration of candidates for the March presidential election has closed, TASS reported on Sunday, with a list including president Vladimir Putin and three politicians who all support Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The list did not include the Russian anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin after the Central Election Commission barred him on Thursday from running. Nadezhdin said on Thursday he would challenge the CEC’s decision in Russia’s supreme court.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop there if he wins in Ukraine - he will then try to seize countries that were previously part of the USSR, said the head of the Munich International Security Conference Christoph Heusgen in an interview with the Rheinische Post.
"If Putin doesn't lose the war in Ukraine, we should expect him to reach Moldova or the Baltic states," he said.
The President of the Russian Federation has repeatedly called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century,” noting that as a result, “tens of millions” of his compatriots found themselves outside Russian territory, Heusgen recalled. In his opinion, Putin wants to restore the state within the borders of the former USSR.
In this regard , Heusgen called for “everything possible” to be done to ensure that Ukraine receives the weapons and other assistance necessary to defend against Russian aggression and liberate its territories.
Allied Support
Dutch Defense Minister Ollongren asserts that there should be no limit to military support for Ukraine, encompassing weapons, training, and spare parts. She emphasizes the importance of sustained assistance for Ukraine, noting the evolution in collaboration with other nations and industries. Reflecting on her tenure, Ollongren highlights the ongoing commitment to aid Ukraine, stating that since Russia's invasion in February 2022, the Netherlands has provided €2.63 billion in military support. Ollongren underscores that not only Ukraine but also the security of the Netherlands is influenced by such support, as both are integral to the EU and NATO.
Mitch McConnell from the Senate floor on Sunday:
US President Joe Biden warned of dire consequences if US lawmakers fail to approve additional aid for Ukraine as he met Friday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "If it occurs, it would be criminal neglect and outrageous."
The US Senate has passed the procedural vote to advance $95 Billion foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, overcoming a filibuster. The final passage is days away.
Media: NATO may start coordinating Ukraine aid instead of US. One of the alleged reasons behind this consideration is the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to Handelsblatt.
NATO chief Stoltenberg said that any attack on the western military alliance would be met with a “united and forceful response”, after Donald Trump invited Russia to attack member countries that he perceived as not meeting their financial obligations.
Japan will pledge 15.8 billion yen ($106 million) in aid to support the reconstruction of Ukraine from war damage in seven fields such as infrastructure rebuilding and demining, sources familiar with the matter said to Kyodo News.
Estonia will continue to build a line of defense on the border with Russia, despite Putin's statements about the lack of intentions to attack NATO countries. "We will not change our plans just because Putin gave an interview," Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.
Politico: Former Finland PM Alexander Stubb wins presidential election. Stubb, who becomes commander-in-chief and will lead his country’s foreign policy, has vowed a hard line against Russia.
Finland’s former prime minister, Alexander Stubb, completed a surprise political comeback on Sunday by winning a closely fought runoff to become the Nordic state’s president after seven years in the political wilderness.
Christiane Amanpour: “Whatever it takes, we need to help Ukraine.” Finnish presidential candidate Alex Stubb warns that “the war’s very much in a stalemate… Right now, what Ukraine needs is finance… it needs weapons, and finally it needs ammunition.”
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former President of Estonia: Is Europe Ready?
If Russia wins in Ukraine, Europe will have 35 million refugees -- people who don't want to suffer the genocide we all know takes place in Russian occupied areas. Europe is not ready for that. Its leaders worry instead about sending Tauruses and the cost of producing shells.
After Russia wins, Europe will have 3-4 years to get ready as Russia recovers. Perhaps less given they've ramped military production up to war levels. Will anyone lead Europe in the next 4-5 years so we'll be ready? The current crop has shown they are completely unfit.
Who the new leaders will be is up to European electorates. Will European voters take seriously the threats we face or will they continue vacillating between being ostriches of sheep? Those who have warned of what's coming have been ignored or sidelined.
The first opportunity for a shift from wimpy dithering and indecisiveness will be the European Parliamentary elections. Let's see if European security becomes an issue.
If not, the "European project" will be as dead as the "American experiment" seems to be becoming.
Warsaw—1927—posted by The Culture Critic
Trump says he would urge Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to NATO countries that fail to meet financial obligations. Former U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 10 if reelected, he would endorse Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to NATO member countries failing to meet defense spending criteria, in a declaration indicating his disregard for the alliance's collective-defense principle.
The White House called Trump's statements about Russia and NATO "appalling and unhinged." Trump, in a South Carolina rally, boasted of pressuring NATO members to meet defense commitments and telling Russia to act freely against non-compliant allies.
The Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, has said any attack on the western military alliance would be met with a “united and forceful response”, after Donald Trump invited Russia to attack member countries that he perceived as not meeting their financial obligations.
Stoltenberg said in a statement: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk. I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election, the US will remain a strong and committed Nato ally.” He said Nato remained “ready and able to defend all allies”.
Trump is at it again: more statements on Sunday night:
“The greatest salesman in history is Zelenskyi, and I like Zelenskyi. Because during the impeachment hoax, he was told that I called him with threats on the phone. And when he was asked, he replied that nothing of the kind happened. It was a very pleasant call. He could have played along, but he he didn't do that, he told the truth. So I like Zelenskyi. But that war has got to end, it is a disaster. Far more people are dying than you are reading about. And you know why you are not reading about it anymore? Because they (Ukraine) are not doing well. We got to end it. And I will get it settled,"
Ukraine can survive as a state only if it becomes a buffer zone between Russia and the West, refusing integration into the EU and NATO, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in a conversation with former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel.
“Whether we like it or not, whether Ukrainians like it or not, Ukraine is where it is on the map. The best prospect for it would be to create a buffer zone between Russia and the West - of course, with security guarantees,” Orban said ( quoted by Die Presse).
In his opinion, if this does not happen, “Ukraine will lose its country.” “The Russians will destroy it again and again and again. Russia will never accept an EU and NATO member like Ukraine on its doorstep. Never,” Orban emphasized.