Feb 12: The Sunday Edition
Day 353: Donetsk Kherson Kharkiv 1,200 UATraining DeminingHub Slovakia NATO L-70s Crimea Idlib Argentina CND-A&Ps-Kyivskyi UKDef ISW OCCRP Halushka Zherhan 4freerussia Rough RecordedFuture
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Danilov: Russia began new offensive but faces major challenges. National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said Russia has already begun its major offensive in Ukraine's east but faces "big problems" with it. "They have already started their offensive, they don't say it publicly. And our troops are repelling it," Danilov said on television.
Ukraine’s forces hold defence along the frontline in Donetsk, including of the besieged town of Bakhmut, with the fiercest battles raging for the cities of Vuhledar and Maryinka, Kyiv’s top military commander said on Saturday, Reuters reports.
Russian forces shell Kherson Oblast Military Administration building. Russian forces shelled downtown Kherson with artillery, damaging the building on the city's central square, regional authorities reported on Feb. 12. No casualties were reported.
First reports indicate that three Russian S-300 missiles hit Kharkiv on Saturday night, regional governor Oleh Sinehubov wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “One infrastructure facility was damaged. Information about the victims and the scale of the destruction is being clarified,” he said.
Ukrainian military strikes Russian temporary bases over 30 times. In their Feb. 12 update, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported that Ukraine's rocket and artillery forces hit 14 temporary bases of Russian troops, an ammunition depot, and an anti-aircraft missile complex.
Minister: Russia has damaged over 1,200 medical facilities since Feb. 24. Russian forces have damaged a total of 1,218 Ukrainian medical facilities, including 540 hospitals, over the course of the full-scale war, Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Liashko said on Feb. 12.
Training of the Ukrainian military to manage "Leopards" will begin in Germany next week, — Spiegel. The training will take place at the training ground in the city of Munster. The military will learn the basic skills of driving tanks and interacting with the Marder vehicles.
Ukraine to create centralized demining hub. The "Ukrainian Center for Humanitarian Demining" will help improve coordination between ministries, regional administrations, partner countries, and international organizations, and help to attract all possible resources for demining, said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
Pentagon: Russia likely lost about half of its battle tanks in Ukraine. The capabilities of the Russian army, especially the ground forces, have significantly deteriorated, according to Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs at the Pentagon.
ISW: Russian military appears unable to effectively prepare mobilized personnel for war. The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update on Feb. 11 that the Russian military appears to have been unable to prepare its mobilized personnel to conduct effective mechanized offensive operations in the short period of time since their call-ups.
Zelensky: We want to be in EU in 2 years, in NATO after victory. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 11 that Ukraine wants to be a member of the European Union in two years and should be part of the NATO alliance after the country’s victory over Russia.
Zelensky dismisses top official amid government clean-up drive. President Zelensky issued a decree on Feb. 11 sacking Ruslan Dziuba as deputy commander of the National Guard, and said in his evening address that his drive to clean up the government would continue.
First batch of Lithuanian anti-aircraft guns L-70 arrives in Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Feb. 11 that the first batch of L-70 anti-aircraft guns and ammunition, “which will help defend critical infrastructure,” has already arrived in Ukraine.
The Times: UK could provide Ukraine with missiles capable of reaching Crimea. Citing unnamed Ukrainian defense sources, The Times reported that Ukraine would be prepared to use the missiles to strike Crimea, following a notice from President Volodymyr Zelensky that longer-range missiles from western allies would be used to strike "deep in the occupied territories."
Nato should hold an emergency meeting to discuss recent findings about September explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said late on Saturday.
Immigration authorities in Argentina are cracking down on Russian women who since the invasion of Ukraine have started travelling to Buenos Aires to give birth in order to gain Argentinian citizenship for their children. Russian women were also doing the same in the U.S., flocking to Miami and other U.S. cities in what American officials called “birth tourism”. The U.S. government imposed new restrictions on birth tourism in 2020.
A US warplane shot down an unidentified object over North American airspace, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday. It was the second day in a row in which the US military shot down an unidentified airborne object.
Dragana Peco (OCCRP/KRIK), Alina Tsogoeva et al, This Luxembourg Businessman Got Europe's Corporate Registries Shut Down. But Whose Privacy Was He Protecting? - OCCRP
Why did a man who runs a private aircraft company become a central figure in rolling back corporate transparency across the continent? As it turns out, Patrick Hansen has secrets of his own — including multiple ties to wealthy Russian business figures.
Until November, Luxembourg native Patrick Hansen was best known as the CEO of a private aircraft company that has flown luminaries like King Charles III and members of the Belgian royal family.
Key Findings
Hansen has been the owner or director of over 110 companies registered in countries around the world, including well-known secrecy havens like Belize, the British Virgin Islands, and Luxembourg.
Many of the companies he directed had Russian owners. One belonged to the family of a legislator from the ruling United Russia party and was used to manage staff for a yacht.
Another, whose owner is hidden, had a large Russian real-estate portfolio and $99 million in cash on hand.
The firms also tie Hansen to a former Gazprom executive, an Iraqi businessman implicated in a corruption scandal, a former KGB agent, and the father-and-son owners of one of Russia’s largest underwater pipeline builders.
The aircraft company Hansen runs, Luxaviation, got nearly 100 million euros in loans from the pipeline tycoons, fueling its expansion from a small European firm to a business with global reach.
Experts say someone who appears as a director for hundreds of companies is likely a proxy.
Victoria Zhuhan, Clare Press, "I'm sorry, I have to sew." How Russia fired at BBC volunteers and journalists in the Kherson region- BBC
Russia is shelling Manganets so hard that half of the town has left. Humanitarian aid is being collected for those who remain. But as soon as the ZSU liberated Kherson Oblast, local volunteers went to help their neighbors as well. A BBC film crew joined them on one such trip and documented Russian artillery shelling a humanitarian convoy and villagers who had come to get food.
Three white minibuses circle between houses that have plywood instead of windows.
Volunteers load food and warm things from the gym, club and kindergarten, which have turned into warehouses of the humanitarian.
At the exit from the city, the cars are stretched into a column, the drivers start talking on the walkie-talkie. I sit down and ask what brought these people to the Kherson region.
"It's hard, tense, but more civilized in Marganets," explains Serhii Starostin, one of the volunteers of the Marganets Territorial Support 25 organization. - And where we are going, people were under heavy occupation and suffered a lot."
Peter Rough, Turn up the heat on Putin — and show him he can’t defeat Ukraine- New York Post
In the Ukraine war, the United States has developed a novel strategy: boiling the frog. If Russian leader Vladimir Putin feels the full brunt of Western capabilities at once, the thinking goes, he may react unpredictably. If, however, the West turns up the heat slowly — by spacing out the delivery of key weapons and restricting their use — Putin will accept each incremental increase. One day, he’ll wake to find it’s too late. He’s already cooked.
But this strategy prolongs the war. It ties Ukraine’s hands, preventing it from exploiting Russian vulnerabilities in a timely manner. While Ukraine pays in blood, Putin has time to regroup and revise his strategy to account for whatever new weapons Ukraine has received that month.
To flip the script, the United States should set as its strategic goal the full liberation of Ukraine, provided Ukraine is willing to continue the fight. By setting down a powerful marker, the Biden administration would demonstrate to Putin the futility of his threats, strengthen Ukrainian morale and create the conditions that would foster a true spirit of compromise in Moscow.
Insikt Group, Themes and Failures of Russia’s War Against Ukraine- Recorded Future
A year after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia remains unsuccessful in bringing Ukraine under its control as it struggles to overcome months of compounding strategic and tactical failures. Despite these challenges, the Kremlin’s intent remains unchanged, leaving Ukraine and the international community at heightened risk. In anticipation of Russia’s planned renewed offensive, this report reflects on Russia’s key hybrid warfare themes over the past year, including military failures, exploitation of natural resources, reliance on “proxy” groups, and partnerships with anti-Western allies. By doing so, this report illuminates the Kremlin’s strategic miscalculations and its strategies for overcoming its shortfalls.
In the near term, Russia will very likely launch a renewed offensive in Ukraine with a likely focus on the Donbas. Russian state-sponsored cyber threat actors, as well as pro-Russian cybercriminals and hacktivists, will almost certainly support this campaign through continued targeting of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, at least in part in an attempt to further degrade Ukraine’s morale and will to fight. Meanwhile, Russia will also have to manage the direction of largely untrained troops and modern weapons shortages, with likely reliance on recently mobilized troops, “proxy” organizations like Wagner, and foreign weapon supplies from Iran and North Korea to augment its capabilities.
In the longer term, Russia’s actions over the past year have caused lasting geopolitical shifts far beyond Ukraine. In particular, the success of Ukraine’s collective defense model resonates globally, and European shifts away from reliance on Russian gas, serve to remind the international community about the benefits of allied cooperation and the importance of global partnerships. These partnerships are further supported by Russia’s burgeoning military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, which creates a heightened global threat environment. As the war stretches on, the risk of Belarus’s involvement, escalation in the conflict, degraded Ukrainian morale, and international complacency compound, further threatening the security of both Ukraine and the international community.
Key Judgments
Russia was almost certainly challenged by Ukraine’s cyber defenses, which were bolstered by its allies and industry partners, rendering cyber operations unable to substantively augment Russia’s conventional military progress and demonstrating the importance of collective defense.
Russia’s persistent kinetic and cyber targeting of Ukraine’s civilians and critical infrastructure throughout winter very likely reflects the Kremlin’s intent to degrade Ukraine’s morale ahead of an upcoming, renewed offensive.
Russia’s persistent use of “proxy” groups throughout the conflict, such as Wagner Group and pro-Russian cybercriminals, hacktivists, and influence actors, has revealed Kremlin control or direction over these groups, while further illuminating Russia’s desire to have plausible deniability over its actions.
Russia has strengthened international partnerships with key anti-Western allies, including Iran and North Korea, who are likely to continue providing material support to Russia for its war against Ukraine and pose increasing threats to the West as their military cooperation expands.
Russia’s leveraging of its natural resources over the past year has pushed the West to find alternative fuel sources, which will very likely decrease Russia’s ability to exert pressure over the international community.
While Russia maintains its intent to bring Ukraine under its control, the numerous, unaddressed challenges its military faced during the initial invasion, in addition to largely untrained troops, weapons shortages, and Ukraine’s military being armed by the West, will very likely challenge future Russian successes on the battlefield.
As the war continues, a variety of risks threaten both Ukraine and the international community, including formal Belarusian involvement, the potential for escalation, degraded Ukrainian morale, and international complacency.
