Feb 13: Buonasera Mag
Day 354: UASitRep Iran RUdead balloons UAsanctions Dziuba RUeco NATO EU10thPack $19B Moldova Cozzolino Austria-A&Ps-Matviyishyn UKDef ISW WhiteHelmets Troianovski Squires Aslund Stewardson Poliakova
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine approved the formation of the Free Russia Legion, which is made up of Russian citizens. Some of the members had already been living in Ukraine prior to the invasion, while others came out of moral conviction or disgust with Russia's regime.
Suspilne is reporting that Russian shelling has damaged railway tracks in the Kherson region. It states that trains from Kyiv and Lviv to Kherson will instead terminate at Mykolaiv, and pasengers will be transferred by bus to their destination.
Intelligence: Intercepted call shows Russia recruits Iranian, Kurdish drone operators. In a conversation intercepted by the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, two Iranian-made Shahed 136/131 kamikaze drone operators discuss target coordinates using Kurdish with a dash of Farsi, a language spoken in Iran.
Guardian: Iran smuggles long-range combat drones to Russia for war against Ukraine. Iran smuggled at least 18 long-range Mohajer-6 combat drones to Russia in November for the war against Ukraine shortly after a Russian delegation visited Tehran, the Guardian reported on Feb. 12, citing sources in Iran.
The Moscow Times: “An independent media outlet tallying the number of Russian military fatalities in Ukraine advertised this week for volunteers because — for the first time since the start of the war — it did not have enough people to process the incoming reports of deaths. “Over the past two to three weeks, we’ve noticed the number of reports [of killed soldiers] has begun to rise,” Mediazona data journalist Maxim Litavrin told The Moscow Times. “This does not mean that all these people died during this time, but the increase is linked to intensified activity on the frontlines.”
UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely suffering highest casualties since first week of full-scale war. According to the ministry, the uptick in Russian losses is likely due to various factors, such as a lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the frontline, including in Vuhledar and Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk Oblast.
Air Force: Russia uses drone, spy balloons for reconnaissance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The air defense attempted to down the drone, but it is not yet clear if this was successful, the Air Force said.
Prigozhin has said the mercenary force had taken the village of Krasna Hora, on the northern edge of the embattled city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Reuters reported. In an audio message published by his press service on the messaging app Telegram, Prigozhin said: “Today the settlement of Krasna Hora was taken by the assault troops of the Wagner private military company.”
Ukraine imposes sanctions against 200 people, including 1 Ukrainian. The measures are predominantly economic and will remain in effect for 50 years. The only Ukrainian on the list is a former deputy chief engineer at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant seized by Russia, who allegedly agreed to collaborate with the Russian occupiers.
Zelensky: Global sanctions must be imposed on Russia's nuclear industry. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on Feb. 12 that Ukraine is doing its best to ensure that global sanctions are imposed on Russia's nuclear industry.
Zelensky dismisses National Guard deputy commander reportedly in charge of logistics. Zelensky’s executive order didn't specify the reasons for the dismissal, though Ruslan Dziuba, the commander in question, was reportedly in charge of military logistics. Earlier, Zelensky held several meetings with the security and defense agencies concerning various areas, including personnel policy, the interaction between state institutions, and “the purity of agencies’ work.”
“Europe's economy will grow more than previously forecast this year as it avoids a winter recession, with inflation expected to ease as gas prices have fallen, the European Commission said Monday.”- AFP
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, has been speaking at a news conference ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of defence ministers in Brussels. Stoltenberg, says “the reality is that we are seeing the start already” of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine. Stoltenberg added that there is “no sign whatsoever” that Putin is preparing for peace, and that the Russian leader still wants to control Ukraine. On the issue of aircraft for Ukraine he said, “There is now a discussion going on also on the question of aircrafts and I expect that also to be addressed tomorrow at the meeting in Brussels.
EU discussions on the 10th sanctions package as reported by Politico: “against four Russian banks including Russia’s largest private bank, Alfa bank, founded by Russian-Israeli billionaire Mikhail Fridman. A ban on Russian nationals serving on boards of critical infrastructure companies in the EU, such as electricity grids or gas providers.”
New listings of some 130 entities and people, proposed by Poland, Baltic countries, Germany, France and others. These include Russian military leaders, officials installed by Russia in the occupied territories in Ukraine, journalists working for Russian state media and propaganda such as Russia Today, as well as companies and individuals in other countries with links to Russia’s war effort or the Wagner mercenary group — namely in Mali and Iran, which is accused of selling drones and components to Russia’s military.
Additional trade bans on imports into the EU of Russian rubber and asphalt or bitumen (an oil product) and on exports into Russia of EU goods including trucks, other heavy vehicles, construction machines, pumps and other machines used in the construction sector.
The Moscow Times: Putin’s government is pressuring Russia’s Central Bank to be “more upbeat” about the country’s economy amid the invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. The head of Russia's Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and her colleagues were “open to improving forecasts” but so far “unwilling to suggest any imminent easing” fearing inflation, Bloomberg said.
Swiss media: Credit Suisse bank freezes $19 billion in Russian assets. By doing so, Credit Suisse alone froze a third of all declared Russian assets in Switzerland, according to SonntagsZeitung newspaper.
Poland’s president Duda has cast doubt on whether it would be able to supply Ukraine with fighters jets. Duda said sending F-16 aircraft would be a “very serious decision” that was “not easy to take”. Andrzej Duda: ‘If Ukraine doesn’t receive arms in coming weeks, Putin may win.’ Ukraine’s need for Western arms is urgent and will determine the outcome on the battlefield, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with the French media outlet Le Figaro.
Speaking to reporters at a briefing today, Sandu said:
The plan for the next period involves actions with the involvement of diversionists with military training, camouflaged in civilian clothes, who will undertake violent actions, attack some state buildings, and even take hostage. The purposes of the plot were to “overthrow the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one”, she said, “which would put our country at the disposal of Russia, in order to stop the European integration process.
Norway’s intelligence service has said Russia is the main security threat for Norway and Europe. “Russia today poses the biggest threat to Norwegian and European security, and the confrontation with the West will be long-lasting,” said defence minister Bjørn Arild Gram. Gram made the remark after the government received the annual threat assessments from Norway’s three security services.
Ukraine has accused Silvio Berlusconi of “kissing Putin’s bloody hands” after Italy’s three-time former prime minister blamed Zelensky for Russia’s invasion of the country. In comments that unleashed a wave of criticism, Berlusconi said that if he was leading the Italian government then he wouldn’t seek a meeting with Zelenskiy, arguing that if the Ukrainian president had “stopped attacking the two autonomous republics of the Donbas” then “this would not have happened”. (an aside: at the beginning of the full on invasion in February 2022, Berlusconi tried to explain why Russia attacked Ukraine. It was the Russian narrative of events and history.)
Austria has come under heavy criticism for granting visas that will allow sanctioned Russian lawmakers to attend a Vienna meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, The Associated Press reports.
Politico: MEP Andrea Cozzolino was arrested Friday evening by Italian authorities executing a European arrest warrant issued by Belgium. He is now under house arrest in Italy, awaiting a decision on his extradition to Belgium. Both Tarabella and Cozzolino deny any wrongdoing.
Anton Troianovski, Wagner Founder Has Putin’s Support, but the Kremlin’s Side-Eye- NYT
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the once secretive tycoon, is confounding Moscow’s Kremlin-allied elite by starting to dabble in politics alongside waging war in Ukraine.
Mr. Prigozhin operated for years in secrecy, profiting from his personal ties to President Vladimir V. Putin to win lucrative catering and construction contracts with the Russian government while building up a mercenary force known as Wagner. After throwing his forces into Ukraine, their ranks swelled by prisoner recruits, Mr. Prigozhin has emerged as a public power player, using social media to turn tough talk and brutality into his personal brand.
Now Moscow, along with analysts trying to understand the changing dynamics of Mr. Putin’s Russia, is puzzling over Mr. Prigozhin’s next move. Some analysts believe he is poised to turn his new prominence into broader political influence, perhaps even to threaten Mr. Putin. Others see limits to Mr. Prigozhin’s power base and public appeal.
Nick Squires, Wagner mercenaries helping Serbia prepare potential attack on our nation, Kosovan president warns- The Telegraph
A secret operation involving mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group working with Serbian paramilitaries is designed to lay the groundwork for a potential hybrid attack by Serbia to grab Kosovan territory, claims Vjosa Osmani.
Mercenaries from Russia's notorious Wagner Group are working with Serbian paramilitaries to smuggle weapons and unmarked military uniforms into Kosovo, the country's president warned on Friday.
Marusya Poliakova, Why I Chose to Help Ukrainian Refugees In Russia- The Moscow Times
Frustrated by the fact that our protests against the invasion of Ukraine had been unable to change anything, a group of friends and I decided that we could at least do some good by using our skills as teachers, artists and psychologists to help those affected by the war.
In March last year, we traveled to a refugee center for Ukrainians to organize a children’s creative program and mental health support. I normally work as an educator organizing theater projects in schools in Russia, as well as running art and performance workshops for adults and teenagers. Many of my colleagues hold similar humanist views, and we invited them to join us.
The visit was challenging for a group of people opposed to the war. We were shocked to find the center was a closed institution policed by FSB officers in civilian clothing, where most of the refugees spent their time watching state television and feeling grateful to Russia for having “liberated them.” Some even supported the war.
