Feb 13: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Overnight, Russia attacked with 23 Shahed drones. As a result of combat operations, 16 were destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 11 over past 24 hours. Russian attacks against Ukraine killed four people and injured another 11 over the past 24 hours, regional authorities reported early on Feb. 13.
Russian drone attack hits infrastructure site in Mykolaiv, injures 1 person. As a result of Russia's overnight drone attack on Feb. 11, an infrastructure site caught on fire in Mykolaiv, according to regional and military officials. A blast wave also damaged some residences, a gas pipe, and a private vehicle. At least one person was injured.
Governor: Teenager escapes Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. A 16-year-old girl and her caretaker have escaped Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast to Ukrainian-controlled territory, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Feb. 11.
Some good news: Footage shared by Ukrainian Air Intelligence Team BALU HUB from Krynky. Marines raised the Ukrainian flag.
"Glory to the Marine Corps of Ukraine! Glory to Ukraine and all its soldiers. It is an honor to be with you," they add.
Russia used Zircon hypersonic missile for first time, experts say. Russia used a 3M22 Zircon anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, Oleksandr Ruvin, director of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise said on Feb. 12.
DTEK power plant damaged in overnight Russian attack. DTEK, Ukraine’s main private energy company, said on Feb. 13 that one of its thermal power plants was targeted in an overnight Russian attack. The shelling “severely damaged” the plant.
The situation is difficult in Dnipro, the mayor said that they are closing part of the educational institutions and evacuating the hospital due to night shelling. Russia attacked a local thermal power plant. According to the weather forecast, significant cooling is expected in the city. Russian terrorists fight with children and sick people.
Overnight in Moscow, there was a powerful fire in the area of the Gazpromnafta refinery. Cause unknown but we can guess… Lately Ukraine has been attacking Russian refineries more active.
Combat Situation Update
Ukraine may have transferred the 3rd Assault Brigade to Avdiivka. This brigade was recently seen training on western equipment such as the Bradley M2A2 IFV. The day before yesterday information emerged that reinforcements had entered the area.
Noel Report: The video shows us what the coke plant looks like in Avdiivka.
The situation in Avdiivka has deteriorated. Russian troops are making progress near the railway lines and have almost reached Avdiivka train station. At the same time, it is advancing west and east of Zenit former airbase. The important forward position seems untenable.
ISW: Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Kreminna.
CDS: On the Tavriya direction, the enemy is increasingly deploying armored groups during assault operations. Both sides are constantly vying for initiative on the Zaporizhzhia direction with neither side prioritizing the frontline.
Jacopo Iacoboni: In the Donetsk region, the Russians built a defensive structure - a 30-kilometre-long 'tsar train' - consisting of more than two thousand wagons along a branch from the railway station from Olenivka to Volnovakha, with around 2100 wagons of various types.
Forbes: Ukraine has unveiled a new electronic warfare system called Pokrova, designed to counter the threat of Iranian-designed Shahed drones used by Russia in its attacks. The system relies on jamming and spoofing techniques to confuse the navigation systems of drones. Pokrova overwhelms navigation systems with noise and generates fake signals, causing incorrect location readings. Unlike traditional electronic warfare measures, Pokrova operates on a larger scale, presenting a technical challenge that requires a network of synchronized transmitters.
Behind the Lines
Drone with 22 kilograms of drugs brought down by border guards in Ukraine. Ukrainian border guards said on Feb. 11 that they had brought down a quadcopter carrying 22.5 kilograms of hashish with an estimated value of Hr 13 million ($346,000).
Former police officer charged for allegedly directing Russian missile strike on Hroza. The former police officer was charged with treason in absentia, as he is thought to have fled to Russia in 2022.
Polish farmers dumping Ukrainian grain: as Ukrainians have expressed, the farmers that have grown and harvested the grain face grave danger in doing so. The international community worked extremely hard to make sure that the grain corridors remain safe. I must agree that dumping Ukrainian grain is a sign of no respect for those who have put their lives at risk.
Agriculture Ministry 'strongly condemns deliberate destruction of Ukrainian grain by Polish protesters.' "We understand when Polish farmers defend their interests in a civilized way. But this case of destruction of Ukrainian wheat has nothing to do with peaceful protests either from a legal or a moral point of view," the Agriculture Ministry said.
Russia, Belarus banned from ice hockey world championships for another year. The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) decided that Russian and Belarusian national and club teams will not participate in the 2024/2025 championship season.
Military intelligence: Russia reportedly buying Starlink in 'Arab countries.' Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Feb. 13 that it had intercepted radio communications where Russians were discussing the purchase of Starlink terminals in "Arab countries" but did not specify which countries. Claims have circulated that Russian troops were reportedly using the Starlink terminals, which are operated by SpaceX and have been extensively deployed by Ukrainian forces for military purposes.
The Times: UK suppliers exported critical components, including semiconductors and drones, worth over $100 million to Russia in the first ten months of 2023.
While this marks a significant decrease from 2022, when exports were valued at about $770 million, it highlights continued trade between the UK and Russia, with British technology reaching the Russian military indirectly through foreign third parties. The research, based on dismantled Russian weapons found in Ukraine, identified 28 components of UK origin in Russian weapons.
The report suggests that, despite efforts to reduce direct trade, indirect trade by British companies with Russia increased by 78% in the tenth month of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The UK government emphasizes the implementation of severe economic sanctions and the establishment of an Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation to strengthen enforcement.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia announces sanctions against 18 UK citizens. "We are forced to state that Russophobically charged British representatives do not shy away trying to discredit the constitutional system and socio-political processes in our country," Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Tankers carrying oil for Russia stop because of sanction: Of the 50 tankers included in the sanctions list for the period from October 10, 2023, about half stopped transporting oil. At the same time, the discount at which Russian oil is purchased has increased, as a result of which its price this winter is hovering around the $60 per barrel ceiling.
The Russian shipbuilding industry was left without engines for tankers, gas carriers and container ships after the introduction of sanctions for the war in Ukraine, which cut off the supply of foreign products to the country.
We are talking primarily about low-speed marine engines with a power of 10–12 MW, necessary for large-tonnage shipbuilding, informed sources told Kommersant.
Julia Davis: Sergey Karaganov argued that Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin demonstrates that the US is retreating. He said Russia should escalate the situation to make America retreat even sooner and threatened Germany's existence in the event of a war with NATO.
Russia introduces bill to ban foreign state-funded organizations. The new proposed legislation would expand the list to include foreign state-funded organizations, such as media outlets like the BBC or Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
Key Russian propagandists - TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov and head of the Russia Today channel Margarita Simonyan - discussed on the Rossiya channel the future fate of the lists with signatures for presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin.
Solovyov thanked Nadezhdin for the compiled list of “enemies of the people” and “under-destroyed navalnyts,” which he provided to the Central Election Commission.
“We must publicly, from the rostrum, thank Boris Borisovich Nadezhdin. He handed over to the election commission, as I understand it, a list of unreliable people, agents of influence, enemies of the people, TsIPSO bookmarks, those not destroyed in bulk,” Solovyov said on the Rossiya channel. He proposed to transfer the list of these individuals with their personal data to the “competent authorities for study.”
The Manhattan prosecutor's office has applied to the court for permission to sell the superyacht Amadea, the owner of which the US authorities consider Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, writes Bloomberg.
The 106-meter vessel, worth more than $300 million, was confiscated in Fiji in April 2022 as part of sanctions imposed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and transported to California. Since then, the United States has been spending $600 thousand monthly on its maintenance. The amount includes $360,000 for crew salaries, $75,000 for fuel and $165,000 for maintenance, garbage removal, food and other expenses, the lawsuit says.
The authorities want the court to agree to put the yacht up for auction until the dispute over ownership is resolved. As the prosecutor's office noted, Amadea's maintenance costs of more than $7 million a year are “excessive,” which justifies such tenders.
Allied Support
Zelensky to visit several European countries to lobby for Ukraine aid. President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly planning a Western European tour which coincides with this week's Munich Security Conference. This move comes as Zelensky hopes to garner military support amidst the ongoing funding dispute in Washington.
Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said.
The chief of the intelligence service said the assessment was based on Russian plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with Nato members Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with Nato within the next decade or so,” Kaupo Rosin told reporters at the release of Estonia’s national security threats report.
A military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term, he said, partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe.
“If we are not prepared, the likelihood [of a military Russian attack] would be much higher than without any preparation,” Rosin added.
RBC Russia: The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' wanted list included Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop, and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairis
In the summer of 2022, the politician announced that all Soviet monuments would be removed “from public space” in the country. Taimar Peterkop, the Estonian Secretary of State, has also been put on the wanted list. No specific reason given. In addition to Estonian politicians, government officials from other Baltic countries were also on the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted list. In particular, this is the Minister of Culture of Lithuania Simonas Kairys.
EU agrees on new measures to isolate frozen Russian funds. The European Council said on Feb. 12 that central securities depositaries (CSDs) holding more than 1 million euros ($1.07 million) in assets from the Russian Central Bank must separate any profits generated from the primary accounts.
Vice-president of German parliament arrives in Kyiv. "During my visit, I would also like to focus on the children who have been abducted and taken hostage in Russia," said Katrin Goring-Eckhardt, the vice president of the Bundestag, Germany's parliament.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that Russia should not underestimate Western support for Ukraine. She emphasized that Europe will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary and suggested that increased coordination among Poland, France, and Germany could enhance this.
US Senate moves forward $95 billion Ukraine, Israel aid package. The U.S. Senate overcame a significant obstacle on Feb. 12 to propel a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill forward, which includes support for Ukraine and Israel. This progress sets the legislation on a trajectory towards imminent approval in the Senate this week, yet its prospects in the House remain uncertain.
Austria exploring how to end Russian gas import contract, energy minister says. "The market and the energy companies that are part of it are not fulfilling their responsibility to reduce the dependency on Russian gas sufficiently," Austrian Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler said on Feb. 12.
Financial Times: The head of Urenco, the largest western supplier of enriched uranium to the US, Boris Schucht, has stated that the company has enough capacity to replace Russian supplies if the US bans uranium imports from Russia.
A proposed US bill seeks to ban such imports and would support efforts by western nations to strengthen their nuclear supply chains, providing long-term certainty to market participants. Urenco is also in talks with the UK and US governments about potential investments in new plants to produce Haleu, a more powerful fuel used in advanced reactors currently only sold by Russia's Rosatom.
Velina Tchakarova: One of the most overlooked megatrends with serious geopolitical ramifications is that the US has not only become the top oil producer but also one of the greatest combined oil and gas exporters worldwide. And that means that the US has become a direct energy rival of Russia.
Me: for data on this, you can consult the World Integrated Trade Solution or the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Debate in the U.S. Senate on Monday: the following Senators took to the floor to state their negative positions on continuing aid to Ukraine: Jerry Moran (R) Kansas, Rick Scott (R) Florida, Eric Schmitt (R) Missouri, Marcia Blackburn (R) California, JD Vance (R) Ohio, Mike Lee (R) Utah, Rand Paul (R) Kentucky, Roger Marshall (R) Kansas.
The reasons cited for abandoning Ukraine are that the U.S. isn’t capable of protecting its own borders so why should it provide resources to protect other nations; there is no strategy in Ukraine; give peace a chance.
John Jackson: Ballerina in a mass grave: how one girl's defiance under torture proves that Congress is voting on a century of Russian genocide. Give me a minute of your time please:
Sen Chris van Hollen stood to express his support for aid to Ukraine, as well as Thom Tillis:
"If anything came good out of this war, it is that we now know how bad Putin's army is. Ladies and Gentlemen, Putin is on life support, he is losing, this is not a stalemate. If we unite with 50 countries in the Ramstein process he cannot survive."
US Senate moves forward on the $95B package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. A vote to overcome the last hurdle before the final vote was passed with 66-33. Most analysts and commentators say that the bill will not get through the House.
Trump asks Supreme Court to block ruling he lacks immunity in January 6 criminal case
Former President Donald Trump on Monday asked the Supreme Court to step into the charged dispute over whether he may claim immunity from prosecution, once again pressing the nine justices to resolve a question that could undermine his campaign for a second term.
Trump asked the Supreme Court to temporarily block a scathing and unanimous decision from the DC Circuit handed down last week that flatly rejected his claims of immunity from election subversion charges brought by special counsel Jack Smith.
Channel 4 on the Pakistan election: Parties locked into coalition talks after shock result.