Feb 14: Buonasera Mag
Day 355: Kherson Odesa ZAP 89% Vuhledar RUeco Oculus 1m Kadyrov Makarov trains GER NOR NATO UKspy Netrebko Syria-A&Ps-ISW Keating CH4 Briant Lister Saleh Tatlow Saric Cuda
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Suspline: “Since midnight, Russian troops shelled the Kherson community five times, one person was injured. In the morning, the Ochakiv community in the Mykolayiv region was also shelled – no people were injured. During the past day, two people were killed and three others were injured due to Russian shelling in the Kherson region. One person died and three were injured in Donetsk region.”
Russian forces bombarded Ukrainian troops and towns along the frontlines in eastern Donetsk region in what appeared to be early salvoes of a new offensive as Western allies met in Brussels to plan stepped-up supplies to the Kyiv government. Two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out, the Netherlands' defense ministry said.
Shipping and coastal communities around Ukraine’s major seaport hub of Odesa received a warning from military officials on Tuesday over the high risk of naval mines drifting along the coast and washing ashore.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia strengthens its defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast despite focus on Donbas. Maintaining strong defense in Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk oblasts remains critically important for the Russian leadership, despite the current operational focus on central Donbas, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Feb. 13.
Survey: 89% of Ukrainians ready to keep fighting even if Russia uses tactical nukes. According to the results published by the 2023 Munich Security Index, 89% of Ukrainians are prepared to continue fighting against Russia even in the event of a tactical nuclear strike.
Politico: Russia may have lost entire elite brigade near Vuhledar. The brigade totaled about 5,000 soldiers, whose members were killed, wounded, or captured, according to Ukrainian military official Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi.
Reuters: 3 Russian military aircraft intercepted over Poland. The Netherlands' Defense Ministry reported late on Feb. 13 that two Dutch F-35 fighters intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft over Poland and escorted them out.
Reuters: His private army is pushing hard to give Russia a battlefield win in Ukraine, but mounting evidence suggests the Kremlin has moved to curb what it sees as the excessive political clout of Prigozhin. There is growing evidence now though that the Kremlin has moved to nip such speculation in the bud, ordering Prigozhin to halt his public criticism of the defence ministry while advising state media to stop mentioning him or Wagner by name.
Russia has claimed its troops have advanced 2km (1.24 miles) to the west in four days along the frontline in Ukraine. Russian state-owned news agency Interfax carried a report on Monday citing a statement from the commander of the central military district saying “Russian servicemen broke the enemy’s resistance and advanced several kilometres deeper into its echeloned defence. In four days the front moved 2 kilometres to the west.
The Moscow Times: “One of the biggest problems Russia is currently facing is managing its foreign trade transactions. The country’s main banks have been cut off from SWIFT; the number of transborder transaction channels has decreased drastically; and it has become much harder to conduct transactions in dollars and euros. The government is being forced to look for new ways to arrange payment for Russian imports and exports.”
The authorities and businesses have tried switching to national currency transactions, barter deals, cash payments, and other schemes, but were unable to find a comprehensive solution in 2022. Efforts have now clearly shifted to cryptocurrencies and yuan payments, which means the Russian economy will grow increasingly dependent on the Chinese currency, with all the risks such a shift entails.
The Russian state-owned news agency Tass is reporting that today Russia has launched an automated system called Oculus to detect internet content which breaches Russia’s law. Tass reports:
The system recognises images and symbols, illegal scenes and actions, analyses text in photo and video materials. Oculus automatically detects such offences as extremist themes, calls for mass illegal events, suicide, pro-drug content, LGBT propaganda and more.
Citing data from RBC, Interfax, the Mongolian and Serbian news media, and the governments of Georgia, Kazakhstan, Israel, Armenia, and Turkey, journalists at The Washington Post concluded that “at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million” Russian citizens left the country in 2022, following the February invasion of Ukraine — “a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991”.
Kadyrov says top Chechen general was targeted by poisoning attempt. The substance was apparently mailed in an envelope. According to Kadyrov, on February 8, one of Alaudinov’s aides received an envelope with a letter for Alaudinov that had been treated with a poisonous substance. After noticing that the paper had an acrid smell, the Chechen leader said, Alaudinov washed his hands thoroughly and rinsed his nasal cavity, as did everyone else who had touched the envelope.
Major General Vladimir Makarov, the former deputy director of the Interior Ministry’s Center for Combating Extremism, was found dead in the village of Golikovo outside Moscow. Center for Combating Extremism, also known as “Center E,” was formed in 2008 to suppress political protest in Russia. Makarov’s body was found at this suburban home on February 13. It is speculated that he may have committed suicide, after being fired from the Interior Ministry last month.
Putin opts to travel by armored train instead of flying. First delivered around 2014–2015, his customized express train has been in regular use since 2021, when the Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border alerted the world to a possible full-scale invasion.
Suspilne reports on Telegram that Ukrainian forces began training yesterday in operating Leopard 2 tanks in Germany, in a programme that will last until the beginning of April. German defence minister Boris Pistorius has announced that the tanks should arrive in Ukraine by the end of March.
US says it won’t send Ukraine long-range missiles as it has too few. U.S. officials told Ukraine's representatives at a meeting at the Pentagon that it doesn’t have enough Army Tactical Missile Systems to give any up to Ukraine, according to four people familiar with the matter, Politico reported.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has said she expects all Nato members, including Turkey and Hungary, to ratify Finland and Sweden’s bids to join the alliance “without further delay”.
President Zelensky thanked Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, for a new defence package and discussed “further cooperation” in a phone call, Zelenskiy said. Støre proposed last week that his country should provide about 75 billion crowns (£6.1bn) in aid to Ukraine over five years.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, says “the reality is that we are seeing the start already” of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine. Speaking at a news conference ahead of a two-day meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels on Tuesday, Stoltenberg said Nato plans to increase its targets for ammunition stockpiles and that he expected the issue of the possible supplying of aircraft to Ukraine to be discussed at the two-day meeting.
Austria refuses to train Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2 tanks. Neutral Austria does not want to train Ukrainian troops on the Leopard 2 main battle tank, the country's Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner told Ö1 radio station, as cited by Kurier.
A security guard spying for Russia at the British embassy in Berlin collected highly sensitive information for more than three years, including “secret” government communications with prime minister Boris Johnson, a London court has heard. Briton David Ballantyne Smith, 58, who has pleaded guilty to eight charges, is alleged to have collected information from as early as March 2018 until his arrest in August 2021.He was arrested a day after meeting “Irina”, an MI5 officer posing as a member of Russia’s military intelligence service.
Germany has signed contracts with Rheinmetall to restart the production of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft guns it has delivered to Kyiv, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday.
Musicians from Ukraine’s National Opera have refused to appear at a festival in Germany that also features Russian soprano Anna Netrebko. Ukrainian conductor Mykola Diadiura also elaborated to German journalists: “Russians use cultural events to promote their ideology. So, refusing to participate in a festival with Netrebko is our conscious choice.” Additionally, Ukrainian officials noted that President Zelensky recently imposed sanctions on Netrebko along with 118 other individuals, banning them from entering the country and freezing any assets they might own in Ukraine.
The U.S. military said it had recovered critical electronics from the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed by a fighter jet off South Carolina's coast on February 4, including key sensors presumably used for intelligence gathering. Here's what we know about the objects shot down by the military.
New Zealand declared a national state of emergency for only the third time in its history as Cyclone Gabrielle caused widespread flooding, landslides and huge ocean swells, forcing evacuations and stranding people on roof tops.
Tim Lister and Frederik Pleitgen, ‘Just to survive’: Wagner fighters recount the horrors of battle in eastern Ukraine- CNN
“There were 90 of us. Sixty died in that first assault, killed by mortar fire. A handful remained wounded,” said one, recalling his first assault near the village of Bilohorivka. “If one group is unsuccessful, another is sent right away. If the second one is unsuccessful, they send another group.”
The other fighter was involved in an assault lasting five days, through a forest near the city of Lysychansk on the Luhansk-Donetsk border in eastern Ukraine.
“The first steps into the forest were difficult because of all the landmines spread out. Out of 10 guys, seven were killed immediately,” he said.
“You can’t help the wounded. The Ukrainians were firing heavily on us, so even if their wounds were minor, you’ve got to keep going, otherwise you’re the one getting hit by the fire.
“You are at it for five days, people dying right next to me, praying to God, begging for water. You think that you can put down your weapon and nothing else will happen. And then the fight starts again 10 minutes later, and [the Ukrainians] keep coming after you. There is no feeling attached to it. Just wave after wave.”
Alexandra Borissova Saleh, How 2022 Wiped Out a Decade of Progress in Russian Science- The Moscow Times
When I asked my friends recently what changes they'd seen in Russian science since the war began, all of them mentioned that international cooperation had suffered greatly, attending conferences had become impossible due to visa issues and institutional bans on Russian participation, and contact with researchers in the West continued only on an individual basis. Some noted Russia's so-called "pivot to Asia," but complained that it severely limited the scope of collaboration.
These issues may soon pale in comparison to the severe equipment shortages already faced by many Russian researchers, which are only set to intensify in the coming year as domestic stockpiles are depleted. The shipping of reagents has slowed down while also becoming pricier as additional intermediaries are required to evade sanctions.
Like a timebomb, the lack of new deliveries to replace existing equipment is not yet particularly noticeable, but in just a few years it will force entire fields of Russian scientific research to cease activity. However much the government claims the contrary, not everything can be produced domestically.
Ivana Saric, Turkey investigates building contractors as earthquake deaths top 35,000- Axios
The big picture: Thousands of buildings have collapsed across Turkey and Syria, with the sheer scale of the destruction and freezing temperatures hampering rescue efforts even as the total death toll surpassed 33,000 on Sunday.
Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag told reporters Sunday that 134 people were being investigated for their roles in constructing buildings that were unable to withstand the quakes.
Three people have been arrested, seven others were detained and seven others were banned from leaving Turkey, Bozdag added, per Politico.
While Turkey's construction codes do meet current earthquake-engineering standards, they are rarely enforced, helping explain why so many buildings collapsed, AP reported.
Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum has estimated that nearly 25,000 buildings have either collapsed or been heavily damaged by the quakes, per the Guardian.
Heidi Cuda, ‘The String that Unravels Everything’- Bette Dangerous
“We have a long history of ignoring ugly and inconvenient truths in America.”-Craig Unger, bestselling author of American Kompromat, to the Bette Dangerous ‘Speakeasy’ audience, February 12, 2023
When Craig Unger spoke those words at our latest ‘Speakeasy’ in response to me noting that we memory hole so much in America that it puts us in grave danger, I began reflecting on the many lessons I have learned from him over the past few years.
Among them, that the things that infect American are often legal. And how that which is legal often endangers our national security. When former directors of the FBI take money from members of the Russian mob, there’s no walking that back. When a real estate developer takes money from the Russian mob, they own him. These transactions have put our country in grave danger.
But it was when Unger shared just one small detail about the Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, who appears repeatedly in the the various plots of the Trump-Russia scandal, that a bigger picture came into play…...