Feb 15: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Zarina Zabrisky from Kherson: Celebration of love amidst explosions. A couple lost their cafe when Russians flooded the city; they opened a street flower kiosk. A surprise gift. Flowers for lovers, under shelling. Sweets. A yoga session: no light or heat, but lots of love.
Stories we’re following…
Update: 1 killed, 4 injured in Russian attack on Kherson. A 19-year-old man injured in a Russian attack against Kherson earlier on Feb. 14 died in the hospital due to his injuries, said Roman Mrochko, the head of the city military administration.
Update: 2 killed, 5 injured in Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast village. Three men and two women were reportedly injured. Four people were rescued from the debris, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
Dnipro authorities evacuate hospital, close schools after attack on energy infrastructure. A hospital in Dnipro is being evacuated and schools are being closed following a Russian attack on civil infrastructure, Mayor Borys Filatov announced on Feb. 13.
Combat Situation Update
Syrskyi: Ukraine shifts to defense to drain Russian troops. Ukrainian troops have switched from offensive to defensive posture and aim to exhaust advancing Russian forces, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview with German ZDF channel, published on Feb. 13.
Military: Ukraine reinforcing Avdiivka as Russia continues its offensive. Ukraine is reinforcing its troops fighting in Donetsk Oblast's Avdiivka, and some units of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade were withdrawn from the city for rotation for the first time in almost two years, the brigade's spokesman Ivan Siekach said on Feb. 13.
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on February 13.
Geolocated footage published on February 12 shows that Russian forces recently advanced in a field east of Torske (west of Kreminna).
Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements on February 13. Geolocated footage published on February 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Robotyne.
During the night on Feb 15, an oil depot was reportedly hit in Kursk, Russia.
General Tarnavskyi has issued a statement dismissing Russian disinformation about alleged Ukrainian losses near Selydove, Donetsk region. He labels it as Russian IPSO (Information PSYOP) and emphasizes that it aims to divert attention from significant losses incurred by Russian forces in the Taurida direction.
DeepState just confirmed in a map update that the supply road running through Avdiivka has been cut. This is in line with recent Russian advances south of the Coke Plant. Attacks on former air base Zenit were repulsed, I can also confirm. But the situation is dire. With Syrskyi mentioning Ukraine is in 'defensive operations', we might be looking at the early stages of a withdrawal. Let's hope the General Staff learned from Bakhmut.
The AFU confirmed that they attacked the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov. The AFU General Staff has released a statement in which it officially confirmed the attack on the Russian large landing ship Caesar Kunikov in the Black Sea this morning. The ship cost the Russian state $350,000,000.00.
The GUR released footage from a naval drone attack on Russian Project 775 Ropucha-I-class large landing ship Ceasar Kunikov near the shores of occupied Crimea. Magura V5 naval drones inflicted critical damage on the left side of the ship after which it began to sink.
Ukraine's military intelligence says most crew members of the large Russian landing ship Tsezar Kunikov, which was destroyed in the Black Sea, did not manage to survive, Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, reported in a commentary for journalists.
Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, and Chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, held discussions with General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of the United Armed Forces of NATO in Europe, and Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto, Commander of the Security Assistance Group of Ukraine. The talks focused on military plans for 2024, with priorities including optimizing the Armed Forces' structure, enhancing military training, staffing brigades, creating new ones, and ensuring a steady supply of weapons and equipment.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian carriers to hold protests at Poland border. Ukrainian carriers plan to launch protests on Feb. 15 at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing with Poland in response to ongoing blockade by Polish farmers, Suspilne reported on Feb. 14.
Czech farmers set to join protests, border blockade over Ukrainian imports. Protesters will obstruct a highway in Prague on Feb. 19 to bring attention to the demands of Czech farmers, who say EU policies and imports from Ukraine are hurting the agriculture sector.
Putin's proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine, aiming to freeze the conflict, was allegedly rejected by the United States, according to three Russian sources.
The proposal suggested maintaining the current conflict lines without ceding any Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia. Contacts between intermediaries in late 2023 and early 2024 failed when the U.S. didn't want to engage in talks that did not involve Ukraine. A U.S. official denied official contact but acknowledged potential "Track II" conversations among non-government Russians.
The Kremlin on Wednesday denied a Reuters report that Russian president Vladimir Putin proposed a ceasefire in Ukraine to the United States via intermediaries. Asked if the Reuters report that Russia had made peace proposals was true, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “No. It is not true.”
Polish farmers to begin complete blockade of Ukrainian border crossings. Polish farmers will begin a complete blockade of all border crossings and railway shipment stations between Ukraine and Poland starting Feb. 20, protestors announced on Feb. 13.
A sixth checkpoint on the Polish-Ukrainian border has been blocked. About an hour ago, Polish farmer began a protest at the border crossing Korczowa-Krakovets. Trucks heading for Ukraine are blocked, passenger transport is allowed to pass.
Italy will allocate 500,000 euros to reconstruct downtown Odesa damaged by Russia. Italy will help restore the Transfiguration Cathedral, significantly damaged by a Russian missile attack on July 23.
Giulia Pastorella: At our demonstration against pro-Russian propaganda in Viale Monza, the participants of the Italian Communist Party welcomed us with the flag of imperial Russia.
Meanwhile in Russia
Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin announced Russia's intention to suspend its membership in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly by February 21. He criticized the assembly as "a dependent politicized organization that dances to Washington's tune".
Sky News: The ambassador of Russia to the UK has told Yalda Hakim that Mariupol would not have been destroyed if Ukraine had 'surrendered sooner'
Me: I was sickened to listen to this interview. The Russian ambassador almost seems gleeful about the so-called reconstruction in Mariupol. It is to be remembered that the Russians destroyed Mariupol, and we have no way of ascertaining how many Ukrainians are buried under the rubble of the bombed out buildings. He also says that Russia won’t attack Poland or other states. It is to be remembered that on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine he said the same.
Putin signed a law Wednesday that will allow authorities to confiscate money, valuables and other assets from people convicted of spreading “deliberately false information” about the country’s military, AP reported. The bill sailed through the lower and upper houses of the Russian parliament, and was unanimously endorsed by the upper house last week.
Estonian Intelligence Annual Report 2024
A significant setback for the Kremlin, resulting from its full-scale aggression against Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, is Russia’s isolation on the international stage. This has significantly limited its ability to propagate its views in the international arena, particularly in the Western information space. The almost overnight negative shift in Western public opinion towards Russia and the sanctions imposed on Russia’s state media apparatus remains one of the Kremlin’s greatest losses, which it is desperately trying to reverse. Especially since, in the Kremlin’s view, reshaping the Western public’s anti-Russian attitudes is a key factor in breaking support for Ukraine. One tool that Moscow has consistently used throughout the war to influence Western perceptions of the situation in Ukraine is the recruitment of foreign journalists for so-called “press tours” conducted in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The primary role of these tours is to disseminate Kremlin narratives to the Western media through foreign journalists. These tours are presented to the participants as an independent and balanced opportunity to report on events in Ukraine. However, they have nothing to do with (free) journalism. The tours are conducted under the strict control of Russian authorities, and the resulting media materials are propaganda products based on Kremlin-fed talking points rather than an alternative journalistic perspective on events in Ukraine. Also worth noting is that the Russian state usually covers the expenses of these field trips in one way or another. In most cases, the travel and accommodation costs of journalists participating in the tours are reimbursed, but in many cases, the Kremlin also compensates participants financially for their “journalistic” contributions.
The core of participants in these tours consists of representatives of various Western fringe media outlets, often with a penchant for conspiracy theories, as well as various pseudo-journalist bloggers and social media activists. This is mainly because, due to its established aggressor image, it is very difficult for the Kremlin to sell its vision of the war in Ukraine to prominent Western media outlets. However, Moscow has developed a network of influence agents in the West over the decades, an essential part of which are various modern-day content creators.
Allied Support
The Netherlands is joining a military coalition with allies including Britain that will supply Ukraine with advanced drone technology and bolster its offensive capabilities in the war against Russia, the Dutch defence minister said. The pledge from the Netherlands comes in addition to F-16 fighter jets, artillery, ammunition and air defence systems provided by the Dutch to Kyiv, Reuters reports.
The government of neutral Switzerland said on Wednesday it would be ramping up military spending over the coming years, the latest European country to do so in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago. President Viola Amherd said that as of 2035, some 20 billion Swiss francs ($22.58 billion) in additional funding would be available, compared to planning before the Ukraine war. Switzerland allocated 1.9 billion francs for defence in 2023, Reuters reported.
The EU has put forth a proposal to impose sanctions on North Korea for supplying missiles to Russia, which have been deployed in the conflict against Ukraine. Documents reviewed by Bloomberg reveal that the EU intends to sanction North Korea's defense minister and the Missile General Bureau, the government entity responsible for overseeing the country's ballistic missile program.
The EU is considering imposing sanctions on companies in mainland China, Hong Kong, and India for aiding Russia's military efforts. The move is part of the EU's strategy to close loopholes that allow Russia to acquire military technology through third-party countries. The EU, along with the UK and US, is seeking additional tools to prevent Moscow from circumventing existing sanctions.
Umerov after Ramstein: 15 countries join air defense coalition in support of Ukraine. The initiative is led by Germany, France, and the U.S., and 15 countries total have already joined, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said noted.
The Netherlands has announced its participation in a military coalition, along with allies like Britain, to provide Ukraine with advanced drone technology, enhancing its offensive capabilities in the ongoing war with Russia. In addition to F-16 fighter jets, artillery, ammunition, and air defense systems already supplied by the Dutch to Kyiv, this commitment reflects further support. The Dutch Defence Minister, Kasja Ollongren, revealed that there might be additional costs beyond the 2 billion euros earmarked for 2024. The announcement was made ahead of NATO defense minister meetings in Brussels.
US Ambassador doubts NATO will issue membership invitation to Ukraine at Washington summit. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith doesn’t expect NATO will offer Ukraine a membership invitation at the alliance's July summit in Washington, she said at a press conference on Feb. 13.
The Russian Federation wants to place nuclear weapons in space possibly to use against satelites, which is why the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner, provided intelligence about a serious threat to the national security of the US.
The House Intelligence Committee, led by Chair Mike Turner, has shared information about a "serious national security threat" with all members of Congress, raising concerns about a Russian-related threat. Although details remain vague, sources confirm it is a 'concerning and destabilizing' Russian capability. House Speaker Mike Johnson reassured the public, stating there's no need for alarm, while Rep. Jim Himes emphasized it's not a cause for panic.
The US permanent representative to NATO has branded Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US would not protect its allies from Russian invasion as “dangerous and irresponsible”. In scripted, but unusually frank remarks, Julianne Smith told reporters his recent remarks put military personnel in danger.
Democrats are aiming to pressure House Speaker Johnson into allowing a vote on the Senate-passed $95 billion national security supplemental bill for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Democrats are exploring a procedural maneuver called a discharge petition to force a floor vote, but they need support from a majority of House members, including some Republicans. Johnson faces internal party pressures, with conservatives urging him to oppose Ukraine funding, and some Republicans hinting at potential displacement if he allows the discussion of the aid bill.
Democrats House Leader Hakeem Jeffries during a scheduled press conference calls for a vote on the bill that includes aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. He says it is not too much to ask to let the US House actually get to work instead of allowing Trump to get what he wants. He adds there are over (!) 300 bipartisan votes to pass the bill and said that they will use every legislative tool to get the bill passed.
Politico: House Speaker Mike Johnson threw cold water on the Senate-passed foreign aid bill, signaling he will not bring it for a vote as it stands. "The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing (the Senate's) foreign aid bill," he said.
Me: I know you’ve all seen this clip. I include statements by public authorities for posterity. You’re listening to a traitor that has decided to place the interests of a few or one ahead of American security interests. I would say the same, and have, when the former Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, was clearly working in the interests of Russia, and not our NATO partners and Ukraine.
NYT: House impeaches Alejandro Mayorkas, first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in almost 150 years
The House, by a narrow margin, has voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in almost 150 years. The result came one week after the stunning loss House Republicans suffered when they last tried to impeach Mayorkas and GOP defections and an absence sank the initial House floor vote.
GOP senators have discussed with former President Trump his proposal to provide aid to Ukraine as a loan with conditions. The idea is gaining momentum among some Republicans, including Senators Mullin and Cramer, who believe it could be a viable option.
Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, responding to the news that she has been placed on a ‘most wanted’ list in Russia for taking down Soviet monuments.
Russia's move is nothing surprising.
This is yet more proof that I am doing the right thing – the EU's strong support to Ukraine is a success and it hurts Russia.I've always said Russia's toolbox hasn't changed. Throughout history, Russia has veiled its repressions behind so-called law enforcement agencies. I know this from my family history. When my grandmother and mother were deported to Siberia, the KGB issued the arrest warrant.
The Kremlin now hopes this move will help to silence me and others – but it won't.
The opposite. I will continue my strong support to Ukraine. I will continue to stand for increasing Europe's defence.
Main points from the Estonian Intelligence Report 2024
“The Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade. For Estonia, Russia’s military reform entails a significant increase in Russian forces near the Estonian border in the coming years"
"In the short term [Russia] likely incapable of significantly expanding the production of new armoured vehicles. Nevertheless, refurbishing preserved armoured vehicles from storage can compensate for losses in Ukr for several more years"
"The longer the conflict continues at its current intensity, the more the resulting internal political tensions will deepen. However, as 2024 unfolds, the regime will likely retain sufficient means to maintain control throughout the year."
"The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service first noticed a shift in Russia’s policy towards Israel in early 2023 when Moscow, in contrast to its previously neutral stance, began taking markedly anti-Israel positions regarding the Palestine question"
'Western institutions...who interact with Russian academics and think tank experts holding more moderate or “acceptable” views by Western standards should still be aware that their interactions are highly likely to be reported to FSB counterintelligence'
"As an FSB agent, Pukhov regularly informs his handler, Vinnichenko, about his contacts with Western diplomats, events he is invited to and other individuals, including Russian citizens, who are also invited to these events"
@CentreAST "many Russian institutions officially submit regular reports to the FSB about their upcoming contacts with foreigners...The situation in Russia remains largely unchanged from the Soviet era when the KGB followed a similar practice"
"For those who prefer not to find their names and images alongside those of...Russian intelligence officers in our publications...we extend an invitation to get in touch. We are confident that mutually advantageous arrangements can be negotiated!"
Programming notes…
Tune into our latest episode with Maria Avdeeva on Kremlin File from Ukraine. Release on Thursday Feb 15 on your preferred podcast platform. Here’s a sneak peak.