Feb 16: E-Stories
Day722 Mariupol RUattacks CombatSit Avdiivka BehindLines InRussia Navalny Allies Munich Trump USSenate A&P UKDef ISW Noel CDS United24 Halushka Trofimov Khara NATO Ilves Minton Beddoes Finley
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
UNITED24: "My daughter will be 13 and she is gray-haired, most of her classmates were killed in Mariupol," says Yana, who left her hometown of Mariupol 2 years ago.
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles overnight on Thursday. What happened:
Kyiv: a total of 10 missiles fired for the capital were all shot down. No victims.
Zaporizhzia: an infrastructure object was hit
Lviv: more than 10 rockets flew to Lviv. Air defense worked well but one hit was recorded to industrial infrastructure.
Khmelnytskyi: damage to civilian infrastructure was reported.
Myrhorod: a hit was recorded in a warehouse. Luckily nobody got injured.
Zarina Zabrisky: Post-apocalyptic hell: What were once flower stalls, shawarma joints, and coffee shops – now rusting ruins courtesy of Russia. Russia sows death and destruction. Negotiating with these mass murderers is futile.
Russian forces kill Ukrainian priest in occupied part of Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian priest Stepan Podolchak was kidnapped from his home two days earlier by Russian forces, representatives from Kalanchak's military administration told the Suspilne media outlet.
"Six ballistic missiles were launched from the Voronezh region, likely Iskander-M, but we do not rule out that we were attacked by North Korean supplied KN-23 ballistic missiles," Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat stated. This is what they can do.
Olena Halushka: Hey folks! Sign the petition to hold russia accountable and #MakeRussiaPay. Confiscation will be legal and politically justified, as well as won't pose any economic risks when implemented by G7+EU in coalition.
Your support is crucial for Ukraine's victory!
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainian General Tarnavskiy confirms the dire situation in Avdiivka and the partial withdrawal.
"Fierce fighting is taking place within the city. Our troops are using all available forces and means to deter the enemy. New positions have been prepared and powerful fortifications continue to be prepared for all possible scenarios. We value every piece of Ukrainian land, but the highest value and priority for us is to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. The Avdiivka defense operation continues. Our soldiers continue to destroy the occupier's army and grind the enemy's resources and reserves, which he throws into battle without regret."
The strategic withdrawal plan from Avdiivka had already been on the table for more than 2 weeks. But now also seems to have been communicated to the outside world. As far as I know, this concerns the areas to the east near Kam'yanka. Zenit is still unknown. Ukrainian forces have safely left former Zenit air base, south of Avdiivka. Russian forces took over the remains of the positions held by Ukrainians for a long time.
The ratio of forces in the Avdiivka area is one to seven, and the situation in the area itself is critical, speaker of the 3rd assault brigade Oleksandr Borodin said.
"We have some units operating at 360 degrees and one of the elements is that the enemy can hit almost completely 360 degrees in some areas. It doesn't say we're completely surrounded in those areas, but it does mean that we can be hit."
"Unfortunately, the Ukrainians report that the situation is critical. The Russians continue to put pressure on Ukrainian positions every day. Avdiivka may end up under Russian control. To a large extent, this is happening because the Ukrainian troops on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition," coordinator of the National Security Council of the White House John Kirby said.
Speaker of the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops Dmytro Lykhoviy said that Russian forces concentrated an even larger number of personnel in the direction of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzia region than in the Avdiivka direction. They will likely attack.
TERRA unit, now part of the 3rd assault brigade, set a record in destroyed equipment and Russian personnel in a day, unit commander Nikolai Volokhov reports. He adds that the situation is hard and complex and that they face up to 7 brigades.
From the Kreminna direction: "More than 10 armed vehicles including 7 tanks and one TOS-1A were simply devoured by combined FPV effort and artillery today in our direction. I tell you guys, FPV are like f*cking piranhas. Most of the assault forces were still deep behind their lines when they had met their fate."
Budanov: Russia using thousands of SpaceX Starlink terminals in Ukraine. Russian forces in Ukraine are using thousands of Starlink satellite communications terminals made by Elon Musk's SpaceX, the Ukrainian military intelligence chief told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Feb. 15.
Noel Report: An explosion reportedly occured in Biysk, Russia, at the Altai FSC Federal Research center which is a Russian military-industrial complex enterprise that conducts scientific researches and manufactures military products.
Behind the Lines
Official: Border blockade could cost Ukraine over $200 million. Ukraine could lose over $200 million if the border blockade led by Polish farmers is not lifted by the end of February, Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the parliamentary finance committee, said on Feb. 15.
Me: this is the purpose of the blockades we’ve seen in Ukrainian border states. It’s economic warfare, which Russia had waged in September 2014 and takes the same form we are seeing today. Is this Russian piloted or inspired? This remains to be established.
The GUR announced the start of the active phase of an information operation by Russia, named "Perun." As part of this operation, Russia plans to engage foreign journalists, media figures, and bloggers to justify aggression against Ukraine and present the situation advantageous to the Kremlin.
SBU detains executives connected to Russian oligarch. The SBU detained two Ukrainian executives suspected of helping Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska embezzle weapons production supplies to Russia. Deripaska was also charged in absentia.
Multiple oil depots on fire. Russian media report that two drones attacked the Polyova oil depot in the Kursk region last night. Three silos caught fire, one of which partially collapsed.
Hungary has blocked the approval of the 13th package of EU sanctions against Russia which targets almost 200 people and entities from Russia, China and other countries who are deemed to be helping Moscow’s war effort.
Biden: 'Failure to support Ukraine at this critical moment will never be forgotten'. "Supporting our bipartisan national security bill is standing up to Putin. Opposing it is playing into his hands," U.S. President Joe Biden wrote on Feb. 15.
Yesterday in federal court in Brooklyn, Kristina Puzyreva pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy for her role in a multimillion-dollar scheme to send components used in unnamed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and guided missile systems and other weapons to sanctioned entities in Russia. The components shipped in violation of export control and sanctions laws were later found in Russian weapons platforms and signals intelligence equipment in Ukraine.
Interview with our great friend and analyst Alexander Khara:
Meanwhile in Russia
SotaVision: This video is dated Feb 15 from the penal colony.
Bloomberg: If Trump wins the presidential election, he plans to force Ukraine into peace talks with Russia. One of Trump's advisers said that the promise to stop military aid to Ukraine may help the country sit down at the negotiating table, Bloomberg writes.
Allied Support
NATO will provide 1 million drones: “All this will help save the lives of Ukrainians. Our continued support is necessary to preserve Ukraine's freedom." - said NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in Brussels
The Office of the President of Ukraine has confirmed that president Zelensky will visit Germany and France on 16-17 February. On February 17, Zelensky will speak on the main stage of the Munich Security Conference. Negotiations are planned with the Vice President of the USA Kamala Harris, the President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel, the Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte and other leaders of states and big businesses.
Ukraine's Ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, has announced Ukraine's intention to purchase fifth-generation Turkish KAAN fighters in the future. Bodnar revealed that negotiations began before the war, and Ukrainian companies, forming a consortium, are competing with international and domestic manufacturers to supply the aircraft engine. Ukraine plans not only to buy but also to use the KAAN, with Bodnar stating they already know where to deploy it.
NYT: A judge ruled that the Manhattan criminal case against Donald Trump can proceed, and said he plans to set a March 25 trial date. The decision in the hush money case clears the way for the first criminal trial of a former American president.
The Daily Show with Editor-in-chief of The Economist Zanny Minton Beddoes, who explains why Trump’s undermining of NATO is more dangerous than we realize:
Former FBI informant charged with lying about the Bidens’ role in Ukraine business
Special counsel David Weiss charged a former FBI informant with lying about President Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s involvement in business dealings with Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings. Alexander Smirnov, 43, is facing charges in connection with lying to the FBI and creating false records. He was arrested Thursday in Las Vegas.
Politico: Trolls and tumbleweed have opened the door for the Brexiteer’s party to dominate the U.K. political TikTok scene.
At first glance, the success of an insurgent party promising to shake up British politics on TikTok, a platform most popular with younger generations, might seem unremarkable.
But Reform UK's fiery rhetoric about migration and culture wars — bigged up by its pugnacious president Nigel Farage — feels like an odd fit for an app dominated by dance videos and gaming news.
With almost 47,000 followers, nearly 600,000 likes and millions of video views, Reform UK is by far the most successful U.K. political party on the app.
"When we first went on to TikTok our views weren't too good — but as we've grown as a party nationwide, the views have rocketed way ahead of any other platform and that's surprised us because the demographic on TikTok is predominantly 15-to-24 year olds," says Reform press officer Matt Stevens, responsible for running the party's account on the app.
But, he argues, young people are "crying out for change" after years of the Conservatives — the party Reform is most likely to cause headaches for at this year's general election.