Feb 17: Buonasera Mag
Day 358: RUstrikes Ukrenergo Mordvichev Milley RUconscriptions RUtanks EUsanctions AUdiplos Yankina China allies Deripaska Starmer MSC Turkey/Syria-A&Ps-ISW Theiner Medics MedBus Zaryn Avdeeva Michta
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia hits targets in north, west, center of Ukraine. Russia hit targets in the north and west of Ukraine, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts, with drones and missiles overnight on Feb. 16, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote on Feb. 16. Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator, said the attack would not lead to blackouts.
President Zelensky has ruled out giving up any of his country's territory in a potential peace deal with Russia. In a BBC interview to mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion, he warned conceding land would mean Russia could "keep coming back", while Western weapons would bring peace closer. President Zelensky also said a predicted spring offensive had already begun. "Russian attacks are already happening from several directions," he said.
Meduza: Due to Russian shelling, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Development Ministry and the state energy company Ukrenergo have developed a pilot project to build two transmission substations that will be shielded from missile and drone attacks, Forbes Ukraine reported this week, citing an official from the country’s energy sector. The equipment will reportedly be kept in specially-designed underground bunkers.
Ukrenergo CEO: Worst of Russian attacks on energy grid likely over. “The adversary has largely lost the ability to inflict significant damage,” said Volodymyr Kudrytsky in an interview with Bloomberg on Feb. 16, adding that the coming months will nonetheless not be easy.
Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, said yesterday that neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, and he believes the war will end at the negotiating table. The General also said that Russia has lost “strategically, operationally and tactically”. Mixed messagaging from the General: on the one hand, Russia has lost, and on the other, Ukraine can’t win.
Russia “continues to introduce large numbers of troops” on to the battlefield in Ukraine, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, said yesterday. Those troops are “ill-equipped and ill-trained” and as a result, Russian forces are “incurring a lot of casualties and we expect that that will continue”, Austin told reporters in Estonia. He added that the US was ready to defend the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania if required.
Putin promises to support the families of fighters who go to Ukraine with private military companies. “Volunteers who signed contracts,” as the Putin calls them, are “equal before the Motherland” to draftees.
According to the IISS report, the current Russian operational tank inventory is at 1,800, with a further 5,000 tanks in storage, most of which are of "lower quality and many are likely to be junk," WSJ reports.
Meduza: The Kremlin has issued the guidelines for celebrating the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Across Russia, concerts, arts-and-crafts workshops, and murals will celebrate "The Heroes of Our Time," as Moscow calls its invading army.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto arrived in Minsk on Feb. 13, making him the first EU member senior official to visit Belarus in the aftermath of the regime's brutal crackdown on civil society in 2020.
EU countries are “on good track” to adopt new sanctions against Russia in time for the anniversary of Moscow’s attack on Ukraine on 24 February, according to diplomatic sources. The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest ever sanctions.
Russia’s foreign ministry has said it is expelling four Austrian diplomats. In a statement, the Russian ministry said Austria had taken an “unfriendly and unjustified step” and was ruining its previous position as a respected, unbiased and neutral state.
Extras recruited and promised 500 rubles (about $7) to attend Putin’s patriotic concert and rally in Moscow on February 22.
Head of department of financial supply of Russian Western Military District Marina Yankina has committed suicide in St.Petersburg, falling out of the window. (I’m not kidding)
Reznikov: Ukraine's ‘armored fist’ strengthens with new Western deliveries. Following the two-day Ramstein-format meeting in Brussels, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that Ukraine's "armored fist" will be strengthened. "In a few months we'll be able to complete the plan set by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the General Staff," said Reznikov.
Bloomberg: US concerned over China, Iran helping Russia import foreign chips. G7 member states are discussing whether to sanction companies in China, Iran, and North Korea that are providing Russia with parts and technology that have military purposes, Bloomberg reported, citing its sources.
Politico: EU Commission backs out of Russian nuclear sanctions. Three unnamed diplomats told Politico on Feb. 16 that the EU Commission will not include sanctions against the Russian nuclear sector or its representatives in its latest sanctions package.
France sends 14 wheeled tank destroyers to Ukraine. Fourteen AMX-10RC wheeled tank destroyers are en route to Ukraine from France, Forces Operations reported on Feb. 16. The delivery is the first batch of the armored vehicles, with more expected to be sent in the near future.
Canada to allocate additional $5.6 million for demining Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on Feb. 16 that Canada will provide Ukraine with 7.5 million CAD ($5.6 million) for demining.
Ukraine needs more funds to ensure mental health, rehabilitation and community access to health services, WHO regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge, said in a briefing from the Ukrainian city of Zhytomyr. “We are coordinating nearly 200 partners to deliver various health services right across this vast country, reaching 8.5 million people last year. We aim to reach 13.6 million people with this support this year. That’s why we have increased our appeal for 2023 to $240m – $160m for Ukraine and $80m for refugee-receiving countries.”
Israel to support Zelensky's peace formula at the UN. Israel intends to support President Volodymyr Zelensky's peace plan at the United Nations next week, said Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Feb. 16.
Slovakian parliament recognizes Kremlin as terrorist regime. Slovak lawmakers condemned Russia’s large-scale attacks on civilians, civilian objects and critical infrastructure after the latest Russian missile strike unleashed on Ukraine on Feb. 16.
Ukraine nationalizes assets of sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. The properties include the Mykolaiv Alumina Refinery, the Hlukhiv Quartzite Quarry, Khust Quarry, and the Zhezheliv Quarry. The total value of Deripaska's assets seized is around $271 million.
UK opposition leader Keir Starmer visits Ukraine. The two discussed the current situation on the front line and what to expect in the coming months, sanctions and the confiscation of Russian-held assets, post-war rebuilding, and the creation of a Russian war crimes tribunal.
The EU accession negotiations are one of the priorities of the new Moldovan government Dorin Recean, new head of the Cabinet of Ministers, has announced that among the priorities are the start of negotiations for the EU integration and maintenance of peace and order in Moldova.
World leaders, military officers and diplomats are gathering in Germany for the Munich Security Conference to discuss Europe’s security situation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, almost a year ago.
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian FM Kuleba argued that Putin was using "intimidation tactics" in stoking Western fears over potential further escalation of the conflict. He urged Western countries not to "fall for Putin's tricks."
You can follow events at the Munich Security Conference on Twitter here. They provide a live feed on their timeline. More on the MSC in tomorrow’s post.
Protests rocked Iran again overnight after a seeming slowdown in recent weeks, with marchers calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, online video posts purportedly showed. The marches in numerous cities including Tehran that went on into the night marked 40 days since the execution of two protesters last month.
International aid agencies are stepping up efforts to help millions of homeless people, many sleeping in tents, mosques, schools or cars, 11 days after a massive earthquake hit Turkey and Syria killing more than 43,000. Two people were reported to have been pulled alive from the rubble in Turkey on Thursday, but such rescues have become increasingly rare.
Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Apple face stricter EU online content rules, based on monthly user numbers published by the companies. The new rules known as the Digital Services Act label companies with more than 45 million users as very large online platforms and subject to obligations such as risk management and external and independent auditing
Gregg, Salcedo & Abbakumova, Russian mercenary chief says he is also behind global information war- WaPo
Prigozhin — who the U.S. government estimates has deployed some 50,000 fighters to Ukraine, many recruited from prisons — boasted in November that he was interfering in the U.S. midterm congressional elections and intended to continue doing so.
“Gentlemen, we interfered. We are interfering and we will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,” he told Russian media outlets a day before the elections. The claims were impossible to verify.
This week, he embraced and expanded on the U.S. assessment. “I was never just a financier” of the agency, read a statement posted to the account of his press service in response to questions from reporters. “I invented it, I created it, I ran it for a long time.”
Social media accounts linked to the Internet Research Agency worked to stir divisions over Islam in the United Kingdom in the months leading up to the country’s vote to exit the European Union, according to a 2018 report from the British think tank Demos. Philippines news site Rappler linked the company to a broader propaganda ecosystem there.
Mini-thread: Andrew A Michta
Putinism is akin to the Dolchstoßlegende that emerged in Germany after its 1918 loss in Wold War I. It argued that the great German people were never defeated, but betrayed by cowardly politicians-stabbed in the back. That German legend fueled DEU interwar national resentment.
Roughly within a decade after WWI the Dolchstoßlegende and the national resentment it fueled gave rise to Hitler and his attempt to re-litigate the outcome in 1918. Only the unequivocal defeat of Germany in 1945 buried the legend, foreclosing the path to empire through war.
At a risk of over-rationalizing history, I’d argue that for the past 30 yrs Russia has travelled a trajectory similar to that of interwar Germany. Putin’s neo-imperial aspirations are nested in a sea of RUS national resentment over loss of power & prestige on the world stage.
The Russian story that Putin has been pushing is one of the West, having taken advantage of Russia’s weak leaders (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, etc) robbed Russia of it glory to diminish its “velikiy russkiy narod,” That it is now poised to destroy RUS civilization.
If I’m right, the Russian threat to its neighbors and its neo-imperial drive will not end regardless whether Putin remains in power or not. In the long duree of Russian history, it can only break if Russia is decisively defeated in Ukraine- in a way that every Russian sees it.
That’s why so much is riding on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia wins it will see this as a civilizational victory over the West. It will be emboldened to press on into Georgia, Moldova and down even breaching the NATO line.
But if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, the collapse of the legend of “velikiy russkiy narod” could unleash centrifugal forces in RUS that would foreclose its path to empire. It would be a period of instability & risk but it would offer Europe a path to peace.
