Feb 17: E-Stories
Day723 RUattacks Kharkiv Kherson CombatSit Avdiivka BehindLines InRussia Navalny Allies Munich GER FR NATO A&P Darth Halushka UKDef ISW CDS Noel Stevens Aseyev Vanya KI Lautman UAPravda Fiala Hamill
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian armed forces attacked the village of Vovchanski Khutory in the Chuhuiv district of Kharkiv Oblast using artillery on 16 February at around 12:20. A 52-year-old man was killed, and another civilian was injured, Prosecutor General's Office reported on Telegram.
Russian occupying forces have been targeting Kherson since the morning of Friday, 16 February: a medical facility and private houses have been damaged, Oleksandr Prokudin, the Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration, reports on social media. Two hours later, a residential area was attacked. They (Russian troops – ed.) hit residential buildings and outbuildings. A fire was raging at the site of the hit. Firefighters promptly put it out."
The State Border Guard Service has suggested that the blockade of checkpoints by Polish farmers may delay the delivery of humanitarian aid, Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service, quoted by Radio Liberty.
"With the number of border crossings that we have at the moment regarding the movement of lorries, I also have doubts that the participants in this blockade are letting through the required amount or possible amount of humanitarian aid that goes to Ukraine at all checkpoints."
An increasing number of people in the Kupiansk district in Kharkiv Oblast to seek evacuation, Oleh Syniehubov, the Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, on air of the national 24/7 newscast.
"Over the past month, we have witnessed an increase in strikes targeting our civilian settlements. Strikes hit both Kupiansk and the surrounding areas in the Kupiansk district.
…The enemy attacks chaotically, without targeting specifically logistic routes, industries, or critical infrastructure – employing entirely chaotic strikes with various types of weaponry.
Evacuation from this front, as announced in 27 settlements, is gaining momentum. People understand that the situation is essentially a matter of their survival."
There are unknown heroes. One of them is Rom Stevens, a retired American doctor who went to Ukraine in May 2022 to help. Today he was in Munich and he has a message for you. Join Rom today on Odeonsplatz in Munich at 2 pm!
Combat Situation Update
Ukraine is conducting a manoeuvre in Avdiivka to withdraw troops in some areas to “more advantageous positions”, a military spokesman said. At the same time, Ukraine has brought in reinforcements to the strategically important town, surrounded on three sides by Russian forces in what Ukraine’s military has called an “extremely critical” situation.
Maria Avdeeva: “Avdiivka is under relentless attack, dubbed "Avdiivka Hell." The Third Assault Brigade seeks shelter in Koksokhim basements as Russia throws 60-80 KAB bombs daily. This brutal assault recalls Azovstal,”
3rd Assault Brigade says it wiped out 2 Russian brigades at Avdiivka. Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade, whose troops were recently deployed to Avdiivka, is facing around 15,000 Russian troops at its sector of the front, the unit said on social media on Feb. 16.
A total of 70 combat clashes occurred in the combat zone over the past 24 hours. The Russians launched 8 missile attacks and 49 airstrikes, as well as 84 attacks from multiple-launch rocket systems, evening report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from 16 February.
In the area of responsibility of the Odesa Operative-Strategic Grouping of Forces on the Kherson front the Russians do not abandon the attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Over the past day there were two assault attempts on the Ukrainian positions.
On four other fronts, the Russians did not conduct offensive attacks.
"The use of glide bombs in Avdiivka has increased, they use up to 50 a day. These glide bombs are much worse than artillery. In addition, they are starting to use phosphorus intensively. The intensity is growing," speaker of the 3rd assault brigade Oleksandr Borodin said.
Friday night Ukrainian forces are bombing Tokmak in occupied Zaporizhzia, and Mariupol. Earlier today the Ukrainian forces fired missiles in Russian occupied Crimea, and Rostov, Russia, reports RBC.
There were also offensive attacks by the Ukrainian forces in Kremmina.
Behind the Lines
Polish farmers blocked the sixth checkpoint (Korczowa-Krakovets') on the border with Ukraine from 11:00 yesterday, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported. About 1700+ vehicles are now waiting in line.
Ukrainian border guards say that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, continues to play into Russia's hands, aiming to shift the focus and portray Ukraine as the aggressor, but his statements lack real grounds, Colonel Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, reports in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s planners. Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in the war and leading to a redistribution of wealth.
Kyiv Independent: Francis Farrell provides his take on the change in leadership and command positions in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Russian children are trained to shoot assault rifles and weave camouflage nets in the village of Pechenega, Murmansk Oblast, 7 kilometres from the Norwegian border, Norwegian media outlet NRK reports. Barents Observer editor Thomas Nilsen posted several photos on his Twitter account on 11 February about work with children and youth in the Russian village of Pechenega, which borders the Norwegian municipality of Sør Varanger.
Protests last night in Bucharest against Victor Orban: The lastest scandal to beset the government has sparked indignation.
Tens of thousands of people in Hungary have protested following a presidential pardon in a child sexual abuse case that has shocked the nation. Demonstrators packed the historic Heroes' Square in the capital Budapest in solidarity with abuse victims.
President Katalin Novak and two senior figures in Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party last week resigned over the controversial pardon. Separately, a bishop who advised the right-wing PM has now also quit.
Meanwhile in Russia
Defence One: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner, R-Ohio, posted a vague national security warning late Wednesday morning that sent shockwaves around Washington for the rest of the afternoon and through much of the evening. “Today, the House Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat,” Turner said in a short message posted to social media just before noon.
The New York Times reported the weapon had not been launched yet, “but that there was a limited window of time, which they did not define, to prevent its deployment.”
“Deploying a nuclear weapon in space would be a significant advancement in Russian technology and a potentially dramatic escalation,” the Times reported. This is in part because “The Outer Space Treaty bans nuclear weapons in space, but Russia has been exiting many Cold War arms control treaties, seeing them as a restraint on its most important source of military power.”
Reuters: War in Ukraine has cost Russia up to $211 billion, US official says. It is estimated that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia up to $211 billion in equipping, deploying, and maintaining its troops in Ukraine, a senior U.S. defense official told Reuters on Feb. 16.
Washington Post: Russia conducts disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky. The materials have also revealed the Kremlin's frustration with the lack of success, as opinion polls show that the Ukrainian society remains united and supportive of the leadership amid the ongoing full-scale war with Russia.
Russian authorities disrupt rallies honoring Navalny, detentions reported. Multiple people have been detained in Russia as the police moved to disrupt events across the country honoring opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died earlier on Feb. 16. Video care of Sky News.
Allied Support
"Our task is to ensure support to Ukraine, this is in our security interest. The situation is difficult due to the fact that the US hasn't made a decision on aid. This impacted the situation on the battlefield. I expect the US to keep supporting Ukraine," NATO chief Stoltenberg.
Germany hands over shells, drones, armored vehicles, other aid to Ukraine. Germany has handed over 3,990 155 mm shells, eight armored personnel carriers, three Wisent demining tanks, and other aid in the latest delivery, the German government said on Feb. 16.
President Zelensky and German Chancellor Scholz signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of security. It includes long-term commitments to the security and support of Ukraine. "As long as it takes," Scholz added.
President Zelensky about the agreement:
This is an unprecedented document that enshrines German support for Ukraine at the level of more than 7 billion euros for this year. These are weapons for which there are already specific contracts. The agreement sets out Germany's clear position on sanctions against the aggressor, the tribunal, and frozen assets.
The agreement also provides for a mechanism of emergency consultations in the event of a possible future armed attack by Russia on Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stated that Russia is not ready for a long-term and just peace with Ukraine, so support for Kyiv must continue, as reported by European Pravda
"I turn my attention to those who advocate for quick peace and negotiations with Russia. It shouldn't be a Russian-style world," Scholz said.
"Unfortunately, we see that Russia is not prepared for a long-term and just peace. On the contrary, it continues to pursue its goals, as Putin recently demonstrated to us," said the German Chancellor.
The US continues to supply Ukraine with American-produced weapons under previously concluded contracts despite the fact that the US Congress has not yet approved additional funding to help Kyiv, Pentagon's comment at the request of the Ukrainian edition of Voice of America, as reported by European Pravda.
According to the US Department of Defense, under past orders, Ukraine continues to receive artillery shells, HIMARS missiles, air defence capabilities, and other military equipment.
"For security reasons, the Pentagon did not provide more accurate information about the quantity of equipment or the specific timing of its delivery to Ukraine," the Voice of America noted.
These orders were completed as part of the USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) programme, which involves ordering equipment from manufacturers. This programme was intended to provide long-term support to Ukraine's Armed Forces.
US lawmakers unveil new bipartisan bill allocating $47 billion in aid funding for Ukraine. A group of bipartisan lawmakers from the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled on Feb. 16 a combined $66 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, after the Republican-controlled House withheld a vote on a previous version of a funding package.
Politico: France, Greece and Cyprus are blocking attempts to use EU money to buy non-EU produced artillery shells on the global market. France thinks European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production.
France to provide artillery, air defense package to Ukraine. France will provide Ukraine with a defense package that includes artillery shells and Caesar howitzers, as well as reinforced air defense systems, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced at a press conference alongside French President Emmanuel Macron on Feb. 16.
Zelensky, Macron sign security agreement between Ukraine, France. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, signed a bilateral agreement on security cooperation, the two heads of state announced during a press briefing in France on Feb. 16.
Harris: Putin will threaten entire Europe if US abandons Ukraine, allies. "Imagine if America turned our back on Ukraine and abandoned our NATO allies and abandoned our treaty commitments," Kamala Harris said during the Munich Security Conference.
The Biden campaign released a new ad on Friday that brutally criticises Donald Trump for being the only one who promises to “walk away from NATO” and gives “Putin the green light to attack America’s allies.”
A judge ordered Donald Trump to pay over $350 million and barred him from running his company for three years after finding him liable for fraud. The judge also barred the former president’s adult sons from serving in top roles at any New York company for two years.
