Feb 18: E-Stories
Day725 Danilo RUattacks CombatSit Avdiivka BehindLines InRussia Allies Denmark Czech EU Munich A&P Zabrisky UKDef ISW CDS KI Filipowski Nexta Glasnost Ukrinform Panyi Bauer Amanpour Zelensky
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Zarina Zabrisky: Kherson—Danilo, 21, was on the way to help his mother with house repairs when I spoke to him. Lots of work here, he said. "Important not to despair! Victory will be ours." As I am posting this, Kherson is under fire. It's just past midnight on Saturday. The curfew is at 20.00.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attack on Kherson kills 1, injures 2. Russian forces struck Kherson on the afternoon of Feb. 17, killing a 49-year-old man and wounding two more residents, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
Russian attacks over past day kill 5, including 17-year-old girl, injure at least 10. Russian forces also attacked Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, causing damage but no casualties.
Official: Russian attack damages infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia, causes heating outages. Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia on the afternoon of Feb. 17, damaging an infrastructure facility and leaving around 4,000 residents without heating, Anatolii Kurtiev, the city's acting mayor, reported.
Ukraine retrieves bodies of 58 fallen soldiers. The bodies of 58 fallen Ukrainian soldiers were returned to Ukraine, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of the Prisoners of War reported on Feb. 16. (Me: I’m thinking of the ultimate sacrifice they have made for their families and I’m also thinking of their families as well.)
Christiane Amanpour interviews president Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference: “If Ukraine will be alone, you have to understand what will be: Russia will destroy us, destroy [the] Baltics, destroy Poland – and they can do it,” warns President Zelensky. “In Europe, there [are] no nations today who [are] ready for invasion.”
Combat Situation Update
Umerov: Avdiivka shows we need air defenses, long-range weapons, shells. Ukraine took several lessons from the loss of Avdiivka, namely the importance of air defenses, long-range weapons, artillery shells, and fortifications, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Feb. 17.
It has taken the Russian forces 10 years to take Avdiivka, and they have lost over 25,000 men and more than 650 armored pieces of equipment (and counting) in a matter of months. Last night, the Italian pro-Kremlin channel, Donbass Italia, was absolutely gleeful, stating that the Russian occupation would bring wealth and well-being. Avdiivka has been almost totally destroyed.
Syrskyi withdraws Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi published a statement announcing his decision to withdraw Ukrainian units from the heavily battered city. This is what is left of Avdiivka.
“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines. Our soldiers performed their military duty with dignity, did everything possible to destroy the best russian military units, inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment. We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions. The life of military personnel is the highest value,” he noted.
ISW: Russia could replicate Avdiivka's capture tactics if West continues to delay aid. The ISW notes that Russian forces secured air superiority during the Avdiivka offensive, while Western aid delays have hindered Ukraine’s defense.
Ukrainian sources report that Russia has started assaults near Robotyne. So far, several pieces of heavy equipment such as BMP-2/3 and tanks are reportedly destroyed. The attack has been repelled.
Air Force commander: Ukraine downs 3 Russian warplanes. Ukraine's military shot down two Russian Su-34 fighter jets and another Russian Su-35 combat aircraft on Feb. 17, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk reported.
An oil depot in the Kursk region was attacked during the night. The Russian ministry of defense claimed it had shot down 33 drones over several regions such as Kursk, Voronezh and Bilhorod.
Behind the Lines
Drone remnants found in Moldova near border with Ukraine. Fragments of a Shahed-type drone were found in Moldova in a field two kilometers from the country's border with Ukraine, the Moldovan Border Police reported on Feb. 17.
Belarusian Hajun Project: According to our information, the situation with the Russian military contingent deployed on the territory of Belarus hasn’t changed in January. Currently, the Russian Armed Forces are stationed in the following locations in Belarus: • Baranavichy, Mazyr (Bokau) and Ziabrauka airfields – 500-600 people; • Baranavichy radar station and the 43rd Vileika communication center – up to 1450 people. As of February 1, 2024, Belarusian Hajun estimates the number of the Russian military stationed in Belarus at ~2000.
Josep Borrell: The EU should act in 3 main directions: better and faster to support Ukraine economically, define security obligations to Ukraine and strengthen defense capabilities, as Russia prepares for a long confrontation with NATO, Josep Borrell said.
Containing the Kremlin: How to stop Russia’s revisionism—The Atlantic Council
Meanwhile in Russia
Navalny's wife: Putin must be brought to justice for what he did to our country, Navalny. Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said on Feb. 16 that she does not know whether to believe news on Navalny's death, as they are coming from Russian state-controlled media. (Me: please note she does not mention Ukraine.)
Russian parliament speaker: 'Washington and Brussels are to blame for Navalny's death.' "From the Secretary General (Jens Stoltenberg) of NATO and the U.S. leadership to (German Chancellor Olaf) Scholz, (U.K. Prime Minister Rishi) Sunak and (Volodymyr) Zelensky – these are the perpetrators of Navalny’s death," Vyacheslav Volodin claimed.
Russian authorities disrupt rallies honoring Navalny, detentions reported. Multiple people have been detained in Russia as the police moved to disrupt events across the country honoring opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died earlier on Feb. 16. 117 people have been arrested since Feb 16.
Reuters: Oreos manufacturer Mondelez overhauls Russian operations amid boycott, protests. Mondelez was added Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of war" in May 2023 for continuing operations in Russia.
Allied Support
Czech President Peter Pavel revealed at the "Ukrainian Lunch" event in Munich that the Czech Republic has discovered 800.000 shells for delivery to Ukraine, consisting of 500.000 155-mm caliber shells and 300.000 122-mm caliber shells. However, he emphasized the need for funding to facilitate the transportation of these ammunition supplies.
Pavel outlined the Czech Republic's innovative approach, searching globally for military supplies and collaborating with NATO partners such as Denmark, the Netherlands, and Canada. The Czech Republic aims to secure support from the USA, Germany, Sweden, and other potential allies to fund and expedite the delivery of these shells to Ukraine.
At the Munich Security Conference, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco and Estonian Secretary General Tõnis Saar announced the transfer of nearly $500,000 in forfeited Russian funds by the United States to aid Ukraine. The funds were seized after dismantling an illegal procurement network attempting to import technology into Russia.
Dutch PM: Russia is 'nothing compared to the collective EU economy.' The EU's collective economic power is by far superior to Russia, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 17 in an interview at the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, adding that European nations must invest more in defense and support for Ukraine.
Denmark has decided to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine, - Prime Minister of the country Mette Frederiksen "Ukraine is asking us for ammunition and artillery now. We, Denmark, have decided to transfer all our artillery to Ukraine. So, sorry, friends, there is military equipment in Europe, it is not only a matter of production. We have weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, which we do not use yet. They must be handed over to Ukraine," the official stressed.
Italy loans 100 million euros to bolster Ukraine's energy sector. The agreement lays out the terms of a subsidized loan worth 100 million euros ($107.8 million) to the state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo.
US provides Ukraine with war crimes collection assistance. The new package contained 66 vehicles, 250 drones, nine 3D laser ground scanning devices, and a DNA laboratory, the Interior Ministry said.
A bipartisan group of eight House lawmakers unveiled a $66.3 billion proposal to fund military aid for Ukraine ($47.7b), Israel and Taiwan. It removes tens of billions of dollars in humanitarian and economic aid for Ukraine and Gaza while not touching the military portion. It also includes provisions for border restrictions.
"Putin is showing the dictator's handbook in real life. Lets not discuss to do something, let's do everything to stop him. Don't make the same mistakes like we did in history. Don't let agression spread across the world," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refrained from directly addressing the potential supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine but emphasized Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Scholz highlighted Germany's status as the top defense spender in Europe, asserting ongoing support for Ukraine's defense needs. While he avoided a direct response regarding Taurus missiles, Scholz expressed confidence in providing necessary assistance to Ukraine.
Dutch PM: Netherlands actively working on bilateral security guarantees for Ukraine.
“We are discussing intensely now with (President) Volodymyr Zelensky’s team on coming up with security guarantees... And I’m cautiously optimistic that we can close these discussions pretty soon,” Rutte said in press comments at the Munich Security Conference.
Swedish minister reaffirms willingness to send jets to Ukraine after finalizing NATO bid. Sweden is open to providing Ukraine with modern fighter jets, but first needs a full-fledged NATO membership and the security provided by Article 5, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said on Feb. 16 at the Munich Security Conference, according to a Kyiv Independent reporter.
Ulrich Speck: Welt reports that Biden proposed Urusla von der Leyen as Nato Sec Gen, but Scholz refused because she "is too critical towards Moscow, which could become a disadvantage on the long term".
According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the Chancellor has prevented Ursula von der Leyen from becoming the future NATO Secretary General. Apparently the Social Democrats didn't like their course on Russia. Now the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte has a good chance.
'How long will the world let Russia be like this?' Zelensky asks world leaders in Munich—The Guardian
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, has taken the stage at the Munich Security Conference.
“2024 must become a time for a full restoration of a rules-based world order,” he said.
Speaking to a room filled with world leaders, he said “there is no one for whom the ongoing war in Europe does not pose a threat.”
“This is Russia’s war against any rules at all,” he stressed. “But how long will the world let Russia be like this? This is the main question today.”
President Zelensky’s full speech:
He added:
Perhaps people will have to live in a world where local wars will not remain local. Any outbreak of a war risks turning into a global catastrophe.
Perhaps the weaponisation of food or migration will break existing regional balances and undermine many political systems, not only in Europe but also in the Middle East, in Africa, in the Americas.
Perhaps, Europe is facing times when the question of invoking Article 5 of the Nato treaty will be not be a question for Washington at all, but rather for European capitals.
There are hundreds of such ‘perhaps’. On February 23, 2022, none of them existed. Now, they are a part of reality.
And what we lack in this reality: security. Neither for the largest nor for the smallest state.
We must make security a reality again.
Pete Ricketts, (R) Nebraska, tries to defend the American problems at the US border as a high priority in conversation with Kaja Kallas and NATO chief Stoltenberg, furthermore stating that 'democracy is messy and that it takes a lot of time'. He voted ‘nay’ in the last vote in the Senate. Ricketts noted that he believes that aid will come and he also opposses the invasion, but that it takes time.
Kallas counters that Ukraine and the world have no time for slowing down. “Support is needed now, or global security will come under pressure.”
These are the other Senators who voted ‘nay’:
This is brilliant.
Diaper Fire…
