Feb 2 Buonasera Mag
Day 344: Kramatorsk Lyman Mykolaiv Bakhmut Sevastopol Wagner Putin RUplanes Yandex TheHague EU SAMP/T Iran Slovenia Austris gold-A&Ps- Gic ISW Brooks Lautman Davis Tiede Kirichenko Cepa
Catching up
Hop over the Scott Lucas’s EA Worldview for the latest up-dates from the US and the Middle East as well as Europe.
Stories we’re following…
Fierce fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops are trying to gain ground near the strategic logistics hub of Lyman, deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar said on Wednesday evening.
The Russian invaders damaged the civil infrastructure of Ochakiv in Mykolayiv region. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 2 February 2023 regarding the Russian invasion.
Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February, according to the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.
Police: Over 5,000 civilians still in Bakhmut. At least 5,990 civilians, including 200 children, are still living in the front-line city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, local law enforcement reported. Russian regular forces, along with Kremlin-controlled Wager Group, have been attempting to capture Bakhmut for months.
At least three people were killed and 20 other injured after a Russian missile destroyed an apartment building and damaged seven more in Kramatorsk on Wednesday night, regional police said. Local authorities initially said Russia had fired a rocket but the police force later said an Iskander-K tactical missile had struck at 9.45pm local time.
At least eight people have died after a fire broke out in a dormitory for construction workers in Sevastopol, Russian officials said. The fire broke out in temporary accommodation for workers building the Tavrida highway, a new road linking the cities of Sevastopol and Simferopol, according to the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev.
ISW: “The Wagner Group’s prison recruitment efforts may have slowed in previous months. The Wagner Group’s reputation for committing convict recruits to highly attritional human wave attacks in eastern Ukraine has likely engendered resistance among Russian prisoners to Wagner Group recruitment efforts. The likely substandard physical condition of the majority of Russia’s prison population for military service is likely also constraining the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment effort. Moreover, the possible decline in the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment campaign may be an indicator that the Russian Ministry of Defense intends to sideline the Wagner Group in future offensive operations in Ukraine.”
Russian Federal Air Transport Agency head Alexander Neradko said Wednesday that Boeing and Airbus planes operated by Russian airlines will “safely be able to fly” until 2030 if properly maintained, according to RBC. He assured Russians that anti-war sanctions, including rules against Western aircraft manufacturers providing maintenance and spare parts to Russia airlines, have not made flying in Russia more dangerous.
Russia’s ban on selling oil to any persons or companies participating in the West’s price-cap scheme is now in effect (though exemptions are possible by executive order)
Last week, Russian Internet giant Yandex suffered a major source code leak when an unknown user (likely a former employee) published parts of the company’s internal repository online. The breach confirmed that Yandex has censored image and video search results to prevent the Z symbol and images of Putin from appearing in contexts that might embarrass the Russian authorities.
An international centre for the prosecution of crimes in Ukraine will be set up in The Hague, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced. “It will coordinate the collection of evidence, it will be embedded in the joint investigation team which is supported by our agency Eurojust,” von der Leyen said during an official visit to Kyiv.
The European parliament has voted in support of a roadmap for Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said he wanted Ukraine to join the EU in two years but in reality, it is likely to take much longer.
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has announced a doubling of the number of Ukrainian troops to be trained by the EU to 30,000 this year. He also promised €25m for demining areas recaptured by Ukraine, tweeted that “Europe stood united with Ukraine from day one. And will still stand with you to win and rebuild.”
A state-of-the-art missile defence system, SAMP/T, provided by Italy and France should be up and running in Ukraine within the next two months, Italy’s foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, has said. The SAMP/T, known as Mamba, can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once. It is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.
Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania want Russian and Belarusian athletes banned from the Paris 2024 games. The IOC is considering allowing Russian and Belarusian participation at Olympics as neutrals, as Russians have done for the past three Olympics.
Investigators search Kolomoisky, Avakov, incumbent top officials in unprecedented raid. Law enforcement agencies on Feb. 1 searched the houses of several incumbent and former top officials and an oligarch in what appears to be the largest anti-corruption raid since the beginning of Russia's invasion in February 2022.
Zelensky on anticorruption crackdown: ‘Justice will be ensured.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his evening address on Feb. 1 that the government wouldn’t “allow anyone to weaken” the state after the largest anti-corruption raid since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 earlier in the day.
Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has said he is open to supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets if the decision were taken together with Nato allies.
Austria expels 4 Russian diplomats. Austria is expelling four Russian diplomats for engaging in acts "incompatible" with international agreements, the Austrian Foreign Ministry reported on Feb. 2.
Slovenia Arrests 2 Suspected Spies for Russia alleged to be part of a GRU ring. One had Argentinian citizenship and a fake identity. This is the 3rd case of GRU agents with South American covers. 2 fake Brazilian identities and now this.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev has signed a decree dissolving the parliament and setting April 2 as the date for early elections -- the country's fifth in two years -- after an inconclusive October vote failed to produce a government.
State Department Engages with Gold Industry to Discuss Sanctions- Office of the State Department
Yesterday, Ambassador James O’Brien, Head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination, led an interagency discussion with leading companies and associations across the gold sector.
The meeting focused on the importance of the gold industry’s robust implementation of Russia-focused sanctions and of applying broader due diligence standards, including to Russia-backed actors, such as the Wagner Group, around the globe.
The United States remains committed to imposing economic consequences on Russia for its unprovoked war in Ukraine and destabilizing activities across Africa. The meeting also focused on the role gold plays in supporting other regimes of concern, including in Latin America and Africa, and illicit networks, as well as how the industry can mitigate the role of malign actors while also supporting economic development programs, with a focus on labor and human rights.
Peter Tiede, Zelenskyj's military adviser in Berlin- Bild
This visit is a smack for Germany: Since Tuesday, a security advisor to Ukraine President Selenskyj has been in Germany for official talks. At his side: one of the country's most important military experts, Giorgi Kalandadze (42). The former chief of staff of Georgia is considered the father of the successful guerrilla tactics used by the Ukrainians against the Russian invasion.
Embarrassing for Germany: Just a year ago, Kalandadze, whose daughter goes to school near Berlin, was in extradition custody in Germany because of a bogus arrest warrant.
Germany arrested him because the Russians, of all people, against whom he fought in the Georgian War, were hunting him!
Now he came to visit – to the federal government! Kalandadze in Berlin to BILD: "It's nice to be here again - as a free man and not harassed by German authorities." He hopes the authorities have understood that they have been taken in by Russia and its puppets in Georgia. Kalandadze: "You always meet twice in life..."
David Kirichenko, Crimea – Removing the Dagger at Ukraine’s Throat- CEPA
It is sometimes assumed in the West that the Crimean Peninsula is somehow a negotiable element of the conflict and that the government in Kyiv might be persuaded to relinquish it as part of a grand bargain with Russia.
This is despite the fact that Ukraine has consistently stated that its liberation is a central war aim. In the summer of 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again declared that the Russian war against Ukraine must conclude with this achievement.
The idea that Crimea, seized in 2014 by Russian forces in an early and open act of aggression against Ukrainian statehood, is somehow an optional add-on is mistaken, and not just because this is an issue of national pride and integrity.
Programming Note…
Relations between Lithuania and China have deteriorated dramatically since the opening of a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius and Lithuania’s withdrawal from the then-17+1 initiative. Recent research by CEPA on Chinese influence operations in Central and Eastern Europe, however, has highlighted Lithuania’s remarkable resilience in the face of immense pressure from Beijing. The Lithuanian Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, H.E. Egidijus Meilūnas, sits down with CEPA’s Sam Greene to discuss the future of Lithuania’s relationship with China, the support Lithuania will need from its European allies, and the path to a coordinated transatlantic response to China.