Feb 2: E-Stories
Day708 EU50Bln Orban ICJ Kherson Avdiivka CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P UKDef ISW EuroMaidan Tokariuk Metsola KharkivHumanRights Sheremeta Kenyon Weiss Finley Panyi
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Media: Orban's request to review Ukraine aid annually rejected. The aid deal includes a provision for a yearly discussion on the package and the potential to review it in two years "if needed," but there is no explicit veto for Hungary or any other member state.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian attacks on Kherson kills 2, injures 10. Damage to civilian infrastructure including residential buildings, educational institutions, a dormitory, and commercial buildings was also recorded.
Foreign Ministry: ICJ decision 'leaves no doubt Russia is in violation of international law.' The decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Jan. 31 that found Russia guilty of financing terrorism through its support of proxies in Ukraine's Donbas region is the "first time in its history that the (ICJ) has reached a final judgment on Russia’s violations of international law," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said on Feb. 1.
"In Berdiansk, there is one of the largest torture chambers in the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Region. This is the former local colony No. 77. Torture during the Nazi era was and still is being committed there. That is, the modern Auschwitz is there," Dudukalov said.
There are people who have been held in these torture chambers since March-April 2022 and their fate is still unknown. Despite the fact that some illegally detained persons have received international attention, the occupiers still do not inform about their fate.
Combat Situation Update
Over the course of the past day, Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed a total of 58 times. Russian forces carried out two missile strikes, deploying a Kh-59 missile to attack civilian infrastructure in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 1 February. The Ukrainian forces are holding on all fronts, and the Russian forces are trying to breach the left side of the Dnipro.
Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine must introduce new philosophy that accounts for limits in assets. In an opinion piece published by CNN on Feb. 1, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi named three main areas of focus for Ukraine's military in 2024.
Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi emphasizes the need for technological advancements, particularly unmanned systems. He highlights challenges, such as reduced support and advocates for creating a new state system of technological rearmament in the next months.
In the Battle of Avdiyivka, Ukrainian defenders repelled 15 enemy attacks in the Avdiyivka area and another 5 attacks near Pervomays'ke and Nevel's'ke. Here, the Russian fascist invaders, with the support of aviation, unsuccessfully tried to break through defensive lines.
Air Force: Ukraine strikes Russian targets in Crimea 'methodologically and regularly.' Ukraine has certain "tools" at its disposal- it can strike Russian military targets occupying Crimea "methodologically and regularly," Yurii Ihnat, Ukraine's Air Force spokesman, said in an interview with Radio Svoboda on Feb. 1.
Crimean Wind: a picture published by Crimean Wind (monitoring group) allegedly show a fire after strikes on Belbek airfield. Although it is unclear what exactly is burning, it looks like a destroyed building.
The loss of the guided-missile corvette Ivanovets is a significant one for the Russians because there are only three such corvettes in service in the Russian Black Sea Fleet, reported the Ukrainian Navy.
"This is quite a significant loss, given that there are only three such Project 1241.1 corvettes in service in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and the weapons include Moskit-type anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 130 km.”
Behind the Lines
Russia closes border crossing with Estonia to vehicles. Russia has closed the border crossing between Ivangorod in Leningrad Oblast and the Estonian city of Narva to vehicles, claiming reconstruction works are being carried out, the Estonian Police and Border Guard (PBGB) reported on Feb. 1.
Farmers descended on Brussels to press EU leaders to do more to help them with taxes, rising costs and cheap imports, throwing eggs at the European Parliament, starting fires near the building and setting off fireworks. Their revolt is fueling a narrative that the EU is riding roughshod over farmers.
Me: I don’t believe these protests are organic. We’re looking into it and it will take time.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia has reduced gasoline exports to non-CIS countries to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries, as Russia grapples with the impact of fires and drone attacks on its energy.
The Russian Foreign Ministry demanded that its diplomats begin prosecuting celebrities who left the country and opposed Vladimir Putin. Bloomberg writes about this, citing two sources. According to them, the department works primarily with “friendly” countries that have not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Due to the war, Russia has lost 60% of its auto production industry. Almost 20 years of effort and one of the most important achievements of the economic policy of the 2000–2010s, the development of the automobile industry, were crossed out by the war. In the second year of the war, passenger car production increased by 19%, but the collapse compared to pre-war 2021 only decreased to 60%. In 2021, the Russian automobile industry pumped out 1.364 million vehicles, and in 2023 to 450,000 vehicles.
Me: personally, I don’t think the numbers for 2023 can be trusted as plant managers tend to please their bosses with statistics that please them. This has been the way Russian production has functioned since 1921 when the Soviets introduced the New Economic Policy (NEP). Corruption is rife as managers adjust numbers to justify their costs. You really can’t trust any numbers coming out of Russia, but they are indicative of what they would have us believe about their production levels.
One serious or very serious crime is committed in Moscow every 10 minutes: In 2023 there were more than 589,000 serious and very serious crimes committed in russia, according to statistics from the the russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. This is the highest number since 2011. Moscow was home to the biggest number of such crimes, at 50,196. The number of serious and very serious crimes in Belgorod Region (5,614), which borders Ukraine, marked a record since 2010, and represented a 29% jump versus 2022.
In Russia, it is necessary to create a children’s version of the Chechen battalion “Akhmat” in order to instill patriotism among the younger generation and promote the friendship of peoples, State Duma deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov said.
He called Akhmat a role model because “brotherhood” reigns there and not “show off.” According to Kuznetsov, “Russian fathers in some aspects can take an example from the upbringing of young men in the Caucasus.”
North Korea's GDP, which has been declining since pre-pandemic times, may well grow this year thanks to the start of supplies of artillery shells and, possibly, ballistic missiles to Russia. “The economic downturn has lasted for the last five years.
Therefore, an arms deal with Russia will help return to positive growth rates of around 1% in 2024,” Anvita Basu, director of sovereign risk for Europe at ratings agency Fitch Solutions, told Deutsche Welle.
The DPRK does not publish statistics, and conclusions about its economic situation are usually made based on estimates by the central bank of the Republic of Korea. According to Basu, her forecast is approximate, based on data from trading partners of the DPRK and the South Korean Central Bank.
The latter estimated the size of North Korea's GDP in 2022 at only $24.5 billion. In this situation, the “megadeal”, as Basu describes it, with Russia could have a disproportionate impact on GDP.
China told Ukraine that bilateral relations could be harmed by the inclusion of 14 Chinese companies in Ukraine's list of international war sponsors. The warning was communicated to Ukraine last month at a meeting of China's ambassador to Ukraine.
Allied Support
US House Speaker Mike Johnson told the three leaders of the Baltic parliaments that President Biden’s national security supplemental that includes aid for Ukraine is likely to be split up over concerns about border policy reforms.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate will vote next week on the national security supplemental bill, which includes a bipartisan deal on border and immigration restrictions and aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.
"There is no so-called problem of fatigue from Ukraine, but there is a problem of fatigue from Viktor Orbán. We have to solve so many problems, and of course we need to strengthen our unity around Ukraine today," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.
Euroclear earned €4.4 billion from Russian assets due to EU sanctions. The bloc aims to use profits for Ukraine, but new rules approved by the EU won't apply retroactively to 2023. Legal and operational risks loom as the EU debates seizing the windfall.
Latvia bans national sports teams from competing with Russian and Belarusian teams to "reiterate Latvia’s solidarity with Ukraine and to block any attempts by Russia to legitimize its war crimes through the sports sector,” the Latvian Saeima stated.
Olga Tokariuk spoke at the Chatham House event on Jan 31 about Ukraine’s efforts at countering information warfare. Debunking doesn’t work as most of us have found, but getting ahead of a possible information campaign does. This takes time and effort, something that the Canadian NATO contingent was successful at in Latvia. It’s part of strategic communication campaigns, and it is highly successful.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have scaled back deployment of their officers in Syria and will rely more on allied Shi'ite militia to preserve their sway there, sources familiar with the matter said. Recent Israeli strikes have killed more than half a dozen of their members, among them one of the Guards' top intel generals.
The music giant, home to stars like Taylor Swift and Drake, had accused TikTok of offering unsatisfactory payment for music, and of allowing its platform to be “flooded with A.I.-generated recordings.”