Feb 22: Buonasera Mag
Day 363: Kupiansk Lyman Mariupol RailForceOne Moscow Sarmat sabotage START China Belarus Duda Moldova NATO Wagner EU Mamba Luzhinki-A&P-Khara EUvsDisinfo Seddon Tenzer Lautman Cepa Seskuria
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
In a second major address from Warsaw, President Biden pointed to his trip to Kyiv as evidence that the democracies of the world are growing stronger in the face of autocracy.
“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv. Well, I’ve just come from a visit to Kyiv and I can report Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud, it stands tall and most important, it stands free,” Biden said.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Russian forces trying to advance in 5 areas. Russian troops are conducting offensives in the areas of Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Shakhtarsk, and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update on Feb. 21.
Gen Staff: Ukraine’s Air Force also launched 8 attacks on the temporary bases of Russian troops and two strikes on the positions of Russia's anti-aircraft missile systems.
A series of explosions rang out in Mariupol, with reports of two hits within the city, the city council reported on Telegram on Feb. 22. “So far, 11 explosions are recorded in the Russia-occupied city. There is preliminary information about two hits — in the area of AS-2 (Central district) and Stan-3000 (Kalmius district). Probably in places where enemy forces are concentrated.”
City Council: Russian ammunition warehouse destroyed in occupied Mariupol. A Russian ammunition warehouse was destroyed in temporarily-occupied Mariupol on Feb. 21. The warehouse was located in the central district near the airport.
British intelligence: Russia steps up attacks on civilian infrastructure. British Intelligence reported on Feb. 21 an increasing trend of Russian attacks on medical and educational facilities in Ukraine, which they attribute to Russia's "indiscriminate use of artillery and other area weapons systems."
A warehouse with refrigerators is on fire in Krasnoyarsk. The Ministry of Emergency Situations reports that the 7,000 m² fire was caused by careless handling or an electrical short circuit. There were no casualties, and 10 people were evacuated from the warehouse
In Moscow, according to the Moscow Investigative Committee, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and the BBC, a fire broke out in the MKM hotel in the center of Moscow on the evening of February 21. It killed 7 people and injured 8 others.
CNN: Russia’s nuclear-capable ICBM Sarmat allegedly failed test. Russia’s nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile Sarmat appears to have failed a test launch around Feb. 20, according to the sources among the U.S. officials.
Suspects accused of planning to damage a military train are sentenced to 3.5 years in Russia’s first “sabotage” case since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The suspects also allegedly shared information about Russian soldiers with the Ukrainian doxing website Myrotvorets.
Russia’s State Duma has voted unanimously to suspend the country’s cooperation with the New START Treaty, the U.S. and Russia’s only remaining nuclear arms control agreement. Vladimir Putin announced the move in his state-of-the-nation address yesterday.
ISW: Kremlin may direct patronage programs to occupied territories. The Kremlin may be directing patronage programs led by Russian regions to consolidate socio-economic control in the occupied Ukrainian territories, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Feb. 21 update.
American Andre Khachaturyan has been sentenced to eight years in prison in Moscow Oblast. He was arrested in the transit zone of Sheremetyevo airport in December 2021 on his way to Yerevan with a pistol that he legally owned.
Top US Official: Russia didn't give any guarantees to Biden during Kyiv visit. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Feb. 21 denied claims that Russia provided security guarantees to U.S. President Joe Biden during his surprise visit to Kyiv on Feb. 20. "They did not respond other than to acknowledge receipt of the notification,” he said. “There was no exchange. It was mere notification, and acknowledgment of receipt, no guarantees.”
WSJ: China's Xi Jinping plans visit to Russia. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is planning to visit Moscow for a meeting with Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 21, citing people familiar with the matter.
Belarus is moving to legalize capital punishment for treason in government office and the military. The new law will also increase penalties for violations of state secrecy and “terrorist propaganda”.
EU ambassadors have now agreed a 1 year extension of the visa bans/asset freezes on 195 people and 34 entities from Belarus, incl Lukashenka and his inner circle.
While visiting Poland, President Biden delivered a speech at the Royal Castle in Warsaw where he again denounced “Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” and declared, “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never.” Read the full transcript here.
UN: Putin’s withdrawal from New START treaty is ‘dangerous.’ The United Nations has expressed concern over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to withdraw from the New START treaty, which is aimed at the reduction of states’ nuclear arsenals.
Putin revoked a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops.
President Biden will meet leaders of NATO's eastern flank today while China's top diplomat holds talks in Moscow - contrasting shows of support ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said he regretted Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the latest Start bilateral nuclear arms control treaty and urged Moscow to reconsider. “It is President Putin who started this imperial war of conquest … As Putin made clear today, he’s preparing for more war … Putin must not win … It would be dangerous for our own security and the whole world,” Stoltenberg added.
Ukraine, EU, NATO agree on coordination of weapons production for Ukrainian military. Ukraine, the European Union, and NATO are joining forces to increase the production of weapons and ammunition for the needs of the Ukrainian army and to replenish the allies' stocks, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Feb. 21.
Ukraine’s Deputy PM Yulia Svyrydenko will this morning join EU ambassadors for the first bit of their weekly Coreper meeting — for what diplomats say will be an informal discussion where she will likely make the case for stricter sanctions against Russia and more weapons procurement. It comes as EU countries discuss how to ramp up the production of arms and ammunition.
Financial Times: Sanctioned Wagner founder rakes in $250 million profit since 2018. The Financial Times reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian state-backed mercenary Wagner Group, has brought in $250 million in assets over the past four years from oil, gas, diamond, and gold mining in countries such as Sudan and Syria.
Reuters: Momentum shifts in US toward providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, fighter jets. The U.S. is inclining toward sending long-range missiles and fighter jets to Ukraine, Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said, according to Reuters.
Zelensky on China's peace plan: We have our own peace formula. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was not aware of the specifics of China's peace plan it wants to present on Feb. 24, adding that he is counting on the support of the Ukrainian peace formula, the European Pravda reported.
The European Union has extended the sanctions imposed in response to the recognition of the "independence" of the "DPR" and "LPR" for a year. They include a number of economic restrictions on the sham republics, the official EU journal reports.
Italy: Through its sixth military aid package, Rome is working on supplying air defence systems (including the high-end SAMP/T, in conjunction with France) as well as civilian aid. And according to Repubblica, the Meloni government has already earmarked five fighter jets on the condition of not being the first to provide them. What the Italian government has not been sending is ammunition, which is necessary to Ukrainian defences. These shipments stopped when Meloni became prime minister.
Italy to send Ukraine 2 other air defense systems in addition to Mamba. Under its new military aid package, Italy will provide Ukraine with Spada and Skyguard air defense systems beyond the SAMP-T/Mamba, which it earlier pledged to deliver, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Feb. 21.
A Ukrainian soldier compared Germany's Leopard 2 tanks to a Mercedes as he underwent training with them ahead of their arrival on the battlefield, saying he hoped they would bring a breakthrough in the war.
The Georgia jury investigating interference by Donald Trump and others in the 2020 election recommended multiple indictments, its forewoman said. The forewoman said the jury recommended indictments against multiple people but declined to give names.
Nicolas Tenzer, Morality and Foreign Policy: the Strategy of Confusion- Tenzer Strategics
It sometimes seems that accusing a person of holding a moral position when talking about international issues has become a way of discrediting him or her, much worse than if he or she were accused of supporting a regime that commits major crimes. It is a way of denying this person any expertise, any knowledge and any rationality. The rather similar reproach, which consists in designating someone as an idealist, aims at the same goal: to deprive it of any legitimacy to express a sensible word. I have already evoked, in my second paper here, the pretentiousness of those who situate themselves on the side of Realpolitik and who proclaim themselves “realists” to locate themselves on the side of knowledge, or elsewhere the stupidity, on the strategic level, of those who vituperate any form of emotion. Indeed, the relationship between morality and foreign policy may seem like an old debate that has certainly nourished generations of students, but it is in fact anything but an academic controversy that could be dealt with in the comfort of the English leather chairs of dusty libraries far from the battlefield. In particular, repeating the old antiphon of an opposition is certainly the best way to understand nothing about international relations. The theory of a separation should be invalidated strategically, even more than philosophically.
During a recent debate that associated us, the Belgian historian Marie Peltier defended the need for a moral posture in the face of mass crimes and intransigence in the face of any attempt at whitewashing when her opponent argued that Realpolitik governs the position of leaders who would seek to renew their ties with Assad. For my part, I opposed him to the unrealistic character of such a so-called Realpolitik, which would go against our well understood security interests and would also, which is related, only strengthen the axis of dictators in their offensive against liberal regimes. Only in appearance are these arguments distinct. Let us take this as the first thread of this discussion.
Staff, CIA director says intelligence sharing with NATO allies ‘essential cement’ in coalition to support Ukraine- Ukrinform
CIA Director Bill Burns has said that intelligence sharing with NATO allies plays an important in holding together a coalition in support of Ukraine.
“I think the intelligence sharing that we engage in — and it's a two-way street (we've learned a lot from our NATO partners, we learn a lot from the Ukrainians as well) — I think has been the kind of essential cement in the coalition that (US President Joe Biden) has organized,” Burns said during a panel at a Saturday session of the Munich Security Conference in Germany.
According to him, the U.S. intelligence services are working hard with NATO Allied Joint Force Command in Europe and European partners to have "as clear a picture as possible across the Alliance."
The CIA director added that intelligence sharing with partners is carried out "in a very quick and systematic way”.
Olga Lautman, Russia’s Descent into Warlordism, CEPA
As Putin’s army flounders in Ukraine, Russian warlords are flexing their muscles with a growing array of mercenary armies.
Speculation about Prigozhin’s ultimate political ambitions has had Russia’s intelligence services scrambling to cut him down to size. While Putin remains largely hidden from public view, attending only carefully orchestrated events, and traveling on an armored train, Prigozhin is on the frontlines with his mercenaries. Sergei Markov, a pro-Putin political analyst, told the New York Times officials had instructed Moscow’s talking heads not to “excessively promote Prigozhin and Wagner.”
A power struggle seems underway, with Prigozhin stating on February 21 that the defense ministry’s refusal to arm and equip his men inside Ukraine amounted to treason. He said: “There is simply direct opposition going on which is nothing else but an attempt to destroy Wagner PMC (private military company). This can be equated to high treason now when Wagner PMC are fighting for Bakhmut losing hundreds of their fighters every day.”
In case you missed it: Natia Seskuria and Keir Giles
