Feb 22: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
A note to readers: Time is running out for the Ukrainian forces. They are indeed in desperate need of ammunition and weaponry. I realise most of you are busy with your daily lives, work, family, friendships, interests. All that is possible because the Ukrainian forces have been able to stop the Russian advance in their homeland so we don’t feel the effects of war. They are defending us. That is tenuous now. It certainly won’t happen tomorrow, but it’s been made a concrete possibility since weapons and ammunition are not getting to the front. Both the U.S. and Europe all to blame: we’ve all wasted time when time is the most important factor in this war.
You can be sure that Russia knows exactly what our production potential is, and therefore, has increased men and material on the five fronts that matter in the winter. Kupyansk is the next target since it’s a logistics hub for the entire Donetsk region. The Russians know we are behind, and this is the reason for their push on these fronts at this winter. The faster they can take this territory, the easier it will be for them to advance westward into the rest of Ukraine. We can’t let this happen: it means the lives of Ukrainians being subjected to torture, deportation, and death under occupation, loss of their homeland, and it means our security in Europe is further compromised.
All of NATO’s calculations concerning a possible war with Russia have been reached with the conviction that Ukraine will be able to hold the line. If the front in the east should fall, we could have war much closer to home a lot sooner than anyone thought. Remember that the Russians have increased armaments in Belarus and Kaliningrad, and are positioning forces in Transnistria.
This context explains why so many countries in Europe are now scrambling to find ammunition, and are ramping up their armaments production. Sanctions help but they cannot physically stop the Russian forces from advancing: Russia has found alternative supply hubs and routes that we have not been able to block effectively. Russia has also earned $653bn from the sale of fossil fuels, since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, a new report says today, despite western sanctions. The Ukrainians need ammunition and weapons, quickly.
If you’re American, consider reaching out to your representatives. Now is the time to express your views, and to ask them to get the Ukraine aid passed in the House. It also means more work for those who are employed in the defence sector since the U.S. doesn’t send money, but arms which those factories replenish in American warehouses. If you’re in Europe, reach out to your representatives to express your approval of lethal aid to Ukraine since there is a campaign underway seeking to sell the narrative, which pro-Kremlin politicians can use, that we Europeans don’t believe in Ukrainian victory. It’s not a question of believing for me: it’s imperative.
Feb 21—Zelensky’s evening address:
I want to thank our Air Force, everyone who defends our skies. There are good results with regard to Russian military aircraft. Seven combat aircraft – Russian "Su" jets – were shot down in a week. Thank you, our warriors, for your accuracy. One of the key tasks for our country this year is to defend the sky and our frontline positions from Russian air and missile attacks.
Stories we’re following…
Overnight, Russian forces attacked with 10 Shahed drones coming from the south. A total of 8 were destroyed.
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure at least 22. Russia targeted a total of nine Ukrainian oblasts — Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Casualties were reported in the latter five regions.
Russia’s capture of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine has alarmed people in nearby towns and many are now leaving for safer areas after hunkering down for months from constant hostile fire, reports Reuters. Most of those fleeing are elderly. Having watched districts turn into rubble, they now see the 1,000 km (600 mile) frontline in the nearly two-year-old war moving ever closer.
“They have reached Nevelske,” Batrak says of Russian forces, referring to a town to the east. “Another 20-30 km and that’s it. They will destroy us too. Have you seen how those cities were wiped off the face of the earth?”
Russian troops have raped and tortured children in Ukraine, carried out a “large number” of executions and committed other war crimes, according to a United Nations investigation by legal experts.
Set up by the U.N. to probe the conduct of the war, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry reported its chilling findings Friday in Geneva, describing a long list of abuses and atrocities in four regions.
“Based on the evidence gathered by the commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine,” Erik Mose, the chairman of the three-member commission, told the U.N. Human Rights Council.
Mose, a Norwegian judge, said the commission has documented cases in which children have been "raped, tortured and unlawfully confined."
“There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes," he added. "In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from 4 to 82 years."
The ‘Governor’ of temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia admits to ethnic cleasing against those Ukrainian citizens who opposed their activities in the territories. Please note that the interviewer works for the Russian military’s TV service, and has appeared on Italian TV several times.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the downing of another Russian Su-34. We’re now at six downed in the span of 4 days.
“This time, I can say that the Su-35 pilot was lucky - he maneuvered out of the way and is no longer taking any risks. And the Su-34 crew joins our ‘Eternal flight, brothers’ section,” Air Force commander Mykola Oleschuk adds.
Combat Situation Update
UK Defense Ministry: Russia intensifying attacks near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Following the capture of Avdiivka, Russia has intensified its offensive efforts across several sectors of Ukraine’s front line over the past week, likely in order to stretch Ukrainian forces, the ministry wrote.
Noel Report: Russian forces have occupied the village of Pobjeda, south of Mar'inka. The plan seems clear. Taking Paraskoviivka and encircle Novomykhailivka while simultaneously putting pressure on Konstiantynivka from the north via the O0532.
Deputy Commander of the 3rd Separate Assault brigade Maksym Zhorin reports that Russian forces are being transferred away from Avdiivka to other parts of the front. He expects difficult months ahead, especially in the south and the Kharkiv direction.
The 12th Special Purpose Brigade repelled a Russian attack in Kreminna forest. After using demining charges, a Russian tank attacked and got stuck, got hit and exploded. Russian infantry tried to continue the assault but were targeted by FPV's, grenades, artillery and fled.
Zelensky to hold conference with military, political leadership on ‘Ukraine’s future path.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky is planning to hold a conference on Feb. 25 with Ukraine’s military and political leadership to discuss the future of the country as it enters the third year of the full-scale invasion, presidential spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov said on national television on Feb. 21.
Russian channels reported on Tuesday, a HIMARS strike was carried out on the Russian military training ground of the 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, located in occupied Trudivs'ke, Donetsk region. Reportedly 65 were killed and an unknown amount got wounded.
Ukraine’s army on Wednesday denied it had lost Krynky, its bridgehead on the Russian-occupied side of the Dnipro river, a day after Russia’s defence minister said the area had been taken. It claimed Russian forces assaulted Krynky but suffered “significant losses” and retreated. AFP was not able to verify the claims. Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu told Putin on Tuesday that Krynky had been “cleared” of Ukrainian forces. The video that emerged is geolocated east of positions held by Ukrainian forces, which has been in a gray zone for a while.
"As comrades aware of the situation note - all the fuss about the supposed liberation of the settlement. was organized for the purpose of obtaining the rank of general by an individual," Romanov reports.
A couple of Ukrainian special forces guys bomb a garage full of Russians.
Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, including many from the Fateh-110 family, such as the Zolfaghar. In contrast with North Korean BMs, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two US-sanctioned countries. Iran’s defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards – an elite force that oversees Iran’s ballistic missile programme – declined to comment on Reuters’ report. Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment either.
The Minister of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, accuses Ukraine of forming a strike group of 112.000-114.000 troops on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Roughly 17.000 would be part of the regular border defense.
Behind the Lines
Russia has earned $653bn from the sale of fossil fuels, since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, a new report says today, despite western sanctions.
The Kremlin has used loopholes and a “shadow fleet” of tankers to bypass an oil embargo by the US, EU and G7 nations, it says. Typically crude oil is shipped legally to countries such as India and China, It is then refined and sold internationally, Reuters reports.
The report by B4Ukraine – a coalition of more than 80 civil society groups – calls on western governments in 2024 to close down loopholes and to strengthen sanctions. It wants them to “defund” Russia’s war.
Marta Ottaviani: Russian officials are sending the protesters arrested for expressing their condolences on the death of Navalny to fight in Ukraine. They have found a way to use dissidents in an alternative way, he evidently got tired of putting them in prison.
Foreigners allowed to serve in Ukraine's National Guard. Foreigners and "stateless persons" will be allowed to serve in Ukraine's National Guard, according to a decree signed Feb. 21 by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Reuters: EU to remove Yandex co-founder from Russian sanctions list. EU countries agreed to remove Arkady Volozh, co-founder of Russia's most popular search engine Yandex, from the list of sanctions against entities and individuals associated with Russia's war against Ukraine, Reuters reported on Feb. 21, citing three unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.
Polish police said on Wednesday they were investigating a banner at a farmers’ protest calling on the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to get Ukraine “in order”, which sparked anger in Kyiv. On Wednesday, Poland’s minister in charge of the secret services, Tomasz Siemoniak, denounced the “scandalous” banner as a “provocation”. In recent protests, Polish farmers have blocked roads to the border and dumped Ukrainian grain from trucks and freight cars.
Izvestia: China's 3 biggest banks stop accepting payments from sanctioned Russian institutions. The restrictions have been introduced by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the China Construction Bank (CCB), and the Bank of China, the Russian state news outlet Izvestiya said.
Meanwhile in Russia
Viktor Ivanov, the former chief of security for the General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee General Secretary Yuri Andropov, has died, the VChK-OGPU has learnt. This news was picked up by Vlasti as well. He was the director of The Federal Narcotics Service of Russia from 2008 until 2016. Besides one Russian publication, it’s very interesting that this information hasn’t been released by Russian media.
According to Sword and Shield, the Security service was administratively under the 9th Directorate, created at the end of 1967; earlier, in September 1967, the protection of Yu.V. Andropov was carried out by a group of the 7th Directorate of the KGB under the Council of Ministers of the USSR under the leadership of G.N. Zaitsev.
The UK on Wednesday imposed sanctions on six individuals in charge of the Arctic penal colony where Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died last week, reports Reuters.
Those sanctioned, including the head and five deputy heads of the penal colony, will be banned from the UK and have their assets frozen, UK foreign secretary David Cameron said.
“It’s clear that the Russian authorities saw Navalny as a threat and they tried repeatedly to silence him,” Cameron said in a statement. “Those responsible for Navalny’s brutal treatment should be under no illusion – we will hold them accountable.”
Vadim Konstantinovich Kalinin allegedly oversaw the brutal prison camp. Five others have also been targeted for “activity that violates the right not to be subjected to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and the right to life”, the UK government said. They are:
Lt Col Sergey Nikolaevich Korzhov
Lt Col Vasily Alexandrovich Vydrin
Lt Col Vladimir Ivanovich Pilipchik
Lt Col Aleksandr Vladimirovich Golyakov
Col Aleksandr Valerievich Obraztsov
According to several Russian pro-war Telegram channels, Russian war blogger Andrey Morozov has died by suicide in occupied Ukraine. Shortly before his death, Morozov published a post saying that the Russian army suffered significant losses in the battle for Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. Meduza explains what we know.
According to Vladimir Osechkin's sources, Alexey Navalny was frozen in the open-air solitary confinement cell for 2.5 hours, with temperatures as low as -27°C (-16.6°F) to slow down and weaken his heartbeat. Then he was killed with the classic KGB 'one strike' punch to the heart.
Media: Russian citizens attending Navalny vigils reportedly given draft summonses. Russian Telegram channels said that six people who were detained in St. Petersburg while attending makeshift memorial ceremonies were told that they "must report to the enlistment office within a few days to verify their information and register for military service."
Human rights activists from the project Get Lost reported on Tuesday that a summons was served to a 27-year-old St. Petersburg resident after he was jailed for leaving flowers at a memorial to victims of political repressions following Navalny’s death.
“They arrested me while I was placing flowers. They sentenced me to three days in jail, and they gave me the summons before my release. I don’t have a criminal record and I never have. I’m supposed to report there before [February] 27,” the man told Get Lost.
In an essay for The Spectator, historian Sergey Radchenko argues that “the vast, tired, apathetic, silent majority” in Russia, Alexey Navalny’s death “will barely register.” The change that Navalny promised died with him, says Radchenko, and “those in the West who want to reason with the dictator [Vladimir Putin]” delude themselves into believing that “Russia will somehow sort itself out, one day returning to normalcy.” But Putin “is genuinely popular with the meek, slavish populace,” who has “enabled tyranny because they never cared.” With Navalny’s death, “Russia has symbolically turned the corner,” and nobody should deal with Moscow today with the expectation that Navalny’s “beautiful Russia of the future” is on the horizon. It isn’t, says Radchenko.
Update: US citizen arrested in Russia reportedly identified, faces up to 20 years in prison. The case reportedly centers around a $51 donation that the dual U.S. and Russian citizen, reportedly identified as Ksenia (Karelina) Khavana, is accused of making to the U.S.-based Razom for Ukraine charity group on the day that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. (Me: what the hell was she doing in Russia? All American citizens should be getting out as well as nationals from other countries as well.)
Maria Avdeeva: Two days later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Six months after, it annexed Donetsk and Luhansk – exactly as the trembling Naryshkin blurted out.
Me: please note Naryshkin’s demeanor, and Putin’s grilling. The intention here was to gather ‘loyalty’ pledges for the Kremlin.
State Duma deputies are reportedly drafting legislation that would ban designated “foreign agents” from using online social media. Lawmakers are already moving forward with an initiative to ban all “foreign agent” participation in advertising, but sponsors of the social-media ban say the ad restrictions are only a “half-measure.”
The Financial Times reports that Danone now plans to sell its Russian assets to “a member of its Kremlin-installed management linked to the nephew of Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov.” The company Vamin Tatarstan will reportedly pay $191.5 million for the assets. The deal is subject to government approval.
Brianna Keilar for CNN: “The main goal of the whole operation is to build up a bank of hostages with American passports.” --Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov on the arrest of Ksenia Karelina, a Russian-American arrested in Russia for allegedly donating about $51 to Ukraine.
Federal lawmaker Timofei Bazhenov, a deputy from Russia’s ruling political party, says the spread of hogweed in neglected areas of the country could be part of a U.S. “bacteriological war.” On Tuesday, the State Duma adopted the first reading of legislation that requires country homeowners to fight the spread of hogweed. (Me: LOL. It’s just another theme to add to the already widely disseminated conspiracy theory about U.S. bio-weapons.)
Medvedev: Odesa will return to Russia, and not only:
"Where to stop? I do not know. I think that, taking into account what I said, we will still have to work a lot and seriously. Will it be Kyiv? Yes, probably, it should be Kyiv. If not now, then in some time. For two reasons. Kyiv is a Russian city, and from there comes the threat of the existence of the Russian Federation. It is an international threat, because even though Kyiv is a Russian city by its roots, it is controlled by an international brigade of Russia's opponents headed by the United States of America."
Me: why anyone would think that Russia will be satisfied with ‘just Ukraine’ is beyond me. Russia is ramping up its messaging towards reclaiming the Bering Straits, which means Alaska, and there has been an increase in troop numbers in Transnitria.
Blinken and Lavrov faced each other across the table for the first time since they spoke briefly face-to-face at last year’s foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, as foreign ministers from the G20 group of nations gather in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday.
Bloomberg: US tells allies Russia may deploy nuclear anti-satellite weapon into space this year. The U.S. has told allies that Moscow could deploy a nuclear anti-satellite weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 20, citing unnamed people familiar with the issue.
Allied Support
Pentagon: US can deliver aid to Ukraine quickly once Congress passes funding. "So if you've seen with most of our PDAs (Presidential Drawdown Authority), we've been able to surge systems and capabilities pretty rapidly, within a few days," Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said in response to a question on how quickly the aid can be delivered.
New EU sanctions against Russia included adding three mainland Chinese firms to a list of companies that EU businesses were banned from dealing with. The firms – the first in mainland China to be targeted by the measures – were accused of involvement in supplying sensitive military technology to Russia. Firms in Turkey and India were also included, as the EU increasingly targets third countries for helping Moscow circumvent its sanctions.
The EU on Wednesday approved its 13th package of sanctions against Russia. The new package, which will be formally approved in time for the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, will see nearly 200 entities and individuals added to the sanctions list. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the agreement would further cut “Russia’s access to drones”. “We must keep degrading Putin’s war machine,” she wrote on X.
Diplomats said the EU also imposed an asset freeze and visa ban on North Korea’s defence minister Kang Sun Nam for the supply of ballistic missiles to Moscow, as part of its new package of EU sanctions against Russia.
The latest round of EU sanctions against Russia also includes an extensive section centring on the illegal abduction of Ukrainian children to Crimea, Belarus and Russia. On the draft list that was approved by EU representatives were a series of men and women said to be directly involved.
Nato secretary-general Jens Stolenberg said he believes the best way to honour the memory of Alexei Navalny is to ensure a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war. Speaking to Radio Free Europe in Brussels, Stolenberg said: “I strongly believe that the best way to honour the memory of Alexei Navalny is to ensure that president Putin doesn’t win on the battlefield, but that Ukraine prevails.”
Russia is the main international security threat to Sweden, and foreign enemies may try to exploit an elevated risk of extremist violence from Islamists and the far-right, the Swedish Security Service said on Wednesday. “We must all learn to live with the serious security situation,” Charlotte von Essen, head of the Security Service, told a news conference. Sweden has abandoned centuries of neutrality and applied to join Nato since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Switzerland is stepping up its efforts to combat companies and individuals who use a neutral country to circumvent sanctions against Russia. A group of specialists will investigate and ensure inplementation of sanctions in response to ongoing criticism.
New Zealand has pledged $25.9 million NZD in aid to Ukraine while expanding sanctions against Russia and extending military assistance to Ukraine.
Bloomberg: A group of legal experts is supporting the case for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets, asserting that such actions are permissible under international law due to the extensive scale of Russia's ongoing attacks in Ukraine. The European Union, the Group of Seven (G7) nations, and Australia have collectively frozen approximately €260 billion ($280 billion) in securities and cash, with over two-thirds of these funds immobilized within the EU. While there is agreement that these funds should remain inaccessible to Russia unless it aids in Ukraine's reconstruction, there is disagreement over the legality of outright asset seizure.
Canada supports the Czech initiative for the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine outside NATO and will allocate $23 million to it. The Czech Republic said it found 800.000 various type artillery shells in non-NATO countries, ready to be shipped to Ukraine.
Politico: Surveillance software found on EU parliament defence committee phones
The European Parliament on Wednesday asked members on its defense subcommittee to have their phones checked for spyware after it found traces of hacking on two devices.
Members and staff in the chamber's subcommittee on security and defense (SEDE) have had their phones hit with intrusive surveillance software tools, the institution said in an internal email.
All lawmakers in the subcommittee have been advised to take their phones to the institution's IT service to be checked for spyware, according to the email, seen by POLITICO.
The European Parliament is on high alert for cyberattacks and foreign interference in the run-up to the EU election in June.
Politico: Mark Rutte in pole position to be next NATO boss: More than 20 countries have agreed on the outgoing Dutch PM, with about 10 more to go.
"After very intense rounds of discussions among the allies we are now at the point where over 20 NATO allies are prepared to support Prime Minister Rutte as the next secretary-general," said a NATO official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.
Me: this is the wrong person, and it has nothing to do with his qualifications. We need someone who understands the threat we face, such as a leader from the Baltic states.
Trolling Tucker: one of the best ones I’ve seen. This is Drew Pavlou in Australia. He’s been vociferous about pro-Russian proxies in Australia, Aussie Cossack and others who had invaded a Christmas concert in 2023 dawning t-shirts with the ‘Z’ symbol.