Feb 24: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Join a rally to Stand With Ukraine. Click the link to find one of 160 cities participating!
Campaign group 'Republicans for Ukraine' are launching a six-figure advertising blitz urging GOP House members to support a discharge petition to pass a bill containing additional military aid for Ukraine, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to bring it to a vote.
The White House has continued to criticize House Republicans over their refusal to pass legislation providing aid for Ukraine, which escalated after U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson convened an early recess on Feb. 15 without bringing the aid, passed the week before by the Senate, to a vote.
They House has now been granted another vacation period, which cannot be just a coincidence.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Infrastructure facility in Odesa hit in drone attack. Russian forces launched a drone attack against Odesa overnight on Feb. 23, hitting an infrastructure facility, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said via his official Telegram channel.
8 injured in Russia's strike on Dnipro. At least eight people were injured in Dnipro as Russia targeted the city with Shahed drones overnight on Feb. 23, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak said.
Russian attack kills 1, injures 9 in Donetsk Oblast village. A Russian attack on the village of Kostiantynopolske in Donetsk Oblast killed one person and injured nine others, including four children, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin reported on Feb. 22.
SBU: Russian strikes with North Korean missiles have killed 24 civilians in Ukraine. Russian troops have so far launched over 20 North Korea-made missiles to attack Ukraine, killing at least 24 civilians and injuring over 100, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on Feb. 22.
The Russians attacked a district heating plant on the front lines on 22 February, resulting in injuries to six workers, DTEK Energo, Ukraine's main energy producer reports. "Today, Russia attacked a frontline heating plant, and six of our colleagues have been injured.
“This interview with a killer.” President Zelenskyy calls Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin “two hours of bullsh*t”. (Video: Fox News)
Over 14 million Ukrainians forced to flee due to Russian invasion, UN agency says. Over 14 million people, nearly a third of Ukraine's population, have been forced to flee their homes in the two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported on Feb. 22.
February 24, 2022: the start of the Russian full invasion after 8 years of war in Donbas.
Combat Situation Update
Russian channels claim that attacks on Ukrainian-held Krasnohorivka have started and that Russian units managed to advance into the settlement. So far, these reports are unconfirmed.
ISW: Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces has recently intensified operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and is focusing on four axes of advance, the apparent coordination of which likely reflects a wider operational objective and higher-level operational planning.
These four directions of Russian advance along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and the apparent Russian objectives in those directions suggest that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces is undertaking a larger months-long cohesive operational effort to seize the east bank of the Oskil River from Kupyansk to Oskil City. An operation to push Ukrainian forces off the east bank of the Oskil River offers the Russian military an attainable goal that would generate operationally significant effects.
Noel Report: Russian channel Romanov claims that another A-50 airborne early warning and control plane was shot down in the same area as the previous one was shot down. The UAF has confirmed it. Footage from the crash site.
This is what it was:
Russia using freshly-produced shells as supply 'running smoothly,' Ukrainian officer says. Russia is mostly firing shells produced in 2022 and 2023, showing their ammunition supply is "running smoothly," Roman Holodivskyi, a battery commander in Ukraine's 43rd Artillery Brigade, told the Kyiv Independent in an interview published on Feb. 22.
Last year, Russian produced about 2 million 122mm and 152mm shells. This year they want to increase that number to 2.7 million, said GUR Deputy Head, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi.
Ukraine can expect to receive the first Danish F-16 fighter jets this summer. This is declared by the international air force coalition, led by Denmark, The Netherlands and the US.
"It is difficult to set a fixed timetable for the donation of F-16 fighter jets because there are several conditions that must be met before Ukraine can use them. However, I have informed the conciliation committee that we are now working to ensure that everything goes smoothly this summer, when we expect to be able to hand over the first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if the preparations proceed as planned," says Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
Julia Davis: Russian pundits rejoice about "a window of opportunity" in Ukraine due to issues with the US aid. They ponder whether Russia will go all the way to Washington and say they want their enemies to be tormented as they try to figure out where Russia will stop.
Behind the Lines
ISW—WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova.
The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although that appears unlikely. Putin will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation.
Me: this isn’t new, but now things are moving forward. It’s the reason why PM Sandu has enstated close ties with the West. An operation in March 2022 was organised to stop what is about to unfold, but nothing came of it. Moldova is now in danger again because of our inability to take decisive action.
Poland will add border crossings with Ukraine, as well as road and railway sections to the list of critical infrastructure objects to provide a 100% guarantee that military aid, equipment, ammunition and humanitarian aid will reach Ukraine without delays.
Hungarian FM visits Iran, signs trade agreement. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto visited Tehran on Feb. 22, meeting his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and signing a trade deal in the agriculture and food industry.
The Spanish intelligence services have no doubt that the Kremlin is behind the murder of Maxim Kuzminov in Alicante. Kuzminov was a Russian captain who defected to Ukraine in August 2023 and flew to Ukraine with his Mi-8 AMTSh helicopter.
“You know that the collective security treaty actually does not work in relation to Armenia, as shown by events of 2021-22. This could not go unnoticed by us. We have frozen our participation in the CSTO,” Pashinyan said.
WaPo: A major cybercriminal group was disrupted by global law enforcement. LockBit, one of the world’s most prolific ransomware gangs. Its software has been used to extort over $120 million from more than 2,000 victims, officials said. An 11-nation task force infiltrated the group, believed to be operated from Russia, it said yesterday. It made arrests and froze 200 cryptocurrency accounts.
Decode39: Three key figureheads from Italy’s extreme-right subculture took part in celebrations at Russian Ambassador Paramonov’s offices in Rome. After all, the close ties between the Kremlin’s emissaries and Italy’s Nazi-adjacent nostalgics are nothing new. The party was also a commemoration of Darya Dugina, the slain daughter of the hard-right ideologue Alexander Dugin.
Maurizio Murelli, who described his participation in a lengthy Facebook post, was the first one. He’s a former hard-right terrorist who supplied the explosive that killed a police officer in 1973. After an 18-year conviction, he became a publisher and has been nurturing the extreme right’s subculture ever since. He’s been indicated as a key figure among those who spearheaded Kremlin-aligned infiltrations in the League.
He went to the Russian Embassy along with his longtime friend Rainaldo Graziani, son of Clemente Graziani, co-founder of Ordine Nuovo – perhaps the single most important neo-fascist organisation outside of Parliament in postwar Italy, dissolved in 1973 after its members took part in some of the most deadly terror attacks of that time.
In 2017, Mr Graziani took steps to continue his father’s legacy by founding the REuropa Association. Its web domains are owned by a cooperative chaired by Ines Pedretti, his wife and the third guest at the Russian Embassy party.
Meanwhile in Russia
Navalnaya has accused Russian investigators of “blackmailing” her over the funeral of her son, claiming they are trying to force her to hold a private burial ceremony without mourners. She made the allegation in a video published on YouTube.
Fireworks over the Kremlin for the Defender of the Fatherland Day.
Navalnaya also said that she recorded the video because investigators were “threatening” her. She added: “Looking me in the eye, they said that if I do not agree to a secret funeral, they’ll do something with my son’s body ... I ask for my son’s body to be given to me immediately,.”
Russian milblogger reporter is fundraising for 2 Starlinks. In his post, he reveals the cost of both units + 6-month subscription at 219k rubles (£1900). Basic hardware and the cheapest plan cost £1348 in the UK so they're overpaying around 40%. He says the "channel is verified". The system is used for live reconnaissance, image is transmitted to headquarters.
Allied Support
The United States has introduced a large-scale package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The sanctions will be directed against individuals associated with the imprisonment of Navalny, as well as against the Russian financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and individuals who evade sanctions on many continents.
European Union countries are scrambling to raise $1.5 billion in emergency funding to supply Ukraine with at least 800.000 artillery shells from abroad, found by the Czech Republic.
The European Council of the EU adopted the 13th package of sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. It includes restrictive measures against 106 individuals and 88 entities that threathen Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignity.
UK to provide Ukraine with 200 more Brimstone anti-tank missiles. The missiles, which cost roughly 100,000 pounds ($126,000) apiece, can be air or ground-launched. They are laser-guided and are considered to be highly accurate, with particular effectiveness against moving targets such as tanks.
Latvia to become first EU country to ban imports of grain from Russia, Belarus. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics argued that Russian grain imports support the Russian economy and, therefore, its army, and what is labeled as Russian grain may, in fact, be Ukrainian grain stolen from Russian-occupied territories.
Denmark has agreed on a military aid package to Ukraine worth 1.7bn crowns ($247.40m), prime minister Mette Frederiksen said. At a news conference, she said:
Time does not help Ukraine, only action counts on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s fight for freedom is our fight.
Peter Stano, Borrell’s spokesman, addressing remarks made by Medvedev on Thursday. Listen…
US Dept of Defence—Officìal readout: “On February 21, 2024, the Air Force Capability Coalition (AFCC) Steering Group met to discuss progress of Ukraine's F-16 program, including the AFCC's work to train the Ukrainian Air Force to operate, service, and maintain F-16 fighter aircraft. AFCC members coordinate to meet the requirements to ensure Ukraine receives a fully functional F-16 capability, including Denmark's initial donation of aircraft in the summer of 2024, and other Allied donations later this year. The AFCC reaffirmed its unwavering support to help Ukraine protect its skies.”
CBC: Canada may contribute $30 million to Czechia's ammunition delivery to Ukraine. Canada may contribute up to $30 million to Czechia's initiative to urgently send Ukraine hundreds of thousands of artillery shells found in third countries, unnamed defense sources told the Canadian public broadcaster CBC News.
Italy hopes to sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine “in the coming days”, foreign minister Antonio Tajani said on Thursday. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni is negotiating the agreement with Ukrainian authorities, Tajani said during a parliamentary hearing.
Vast network of Russians including Vadim Belayev, founder of Otkritie Holding, arrested throughout the United States. He was using documents with a different name - Vadim Wolfson.
US State Department: 'We do not believe Putin has advantage in the war.' The U.S. does not believe that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has gained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine amid the capture of Avdiivka and the failure of Congress to pass a large-scale aid package for Ukraine.
Poll: Almost 50% of Poles believe a Russian attack on Poland is likely. The 47% of Polish respondents who said that a Russian attack on Poland was probable represented a 16% increase from when a similar poll was conducted in May 2023.
Alexander Khara: Freedom will prevail. What happens in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the Indo-Pacific. From the Republic of China: My message on the two year anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion. JW
Eurobarometre: European citizens’ support for EU backing of Ukraine remains high, a new EUpinions poll surveying 13,000 EU citizens across the 27 member countries shows.
The poll, taken in December, shows 55 % of respondents backed EU arms shipments to Ukraine, down from 60 % three months earlier. Polish citizens were most supportive of arms deliveries, with Italians the least, out of seven countries surveyed in detail.
Across the EU 27, 60 % of respondents backed EU membership for Ukraine, with Spaniards and Italians the most strongly in favor. However, 52 % of Germans were against the idea.
The poll showed overwhelming support for a common European defense policy, with 87 percent of respondents in favor.
EU countries want full control over their defense policy. With war raging in Ukraine and the specter of Donald Trump back on the ballot in the United States, the EU is considering creating a new defense commissioner role to oversee industrial aspects of defense policy, an idea supported fully by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Who’s being considered? One name in circulation is Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s current foreign minister. “He definitely wants it,” added the above diplomat. Another contender is Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who was behind the EU’s pledge to deliver 1 million shells to Ukraine by March 2024 — a deadline the bloc is about to miss — and who penned this opinion piece for POLITICO last year calling for a “strategic leap not only in our thinking but also in real deliverables.”
Politico: 5 ways the EU could help end the war in Ukraine- hit commodities
Fixing the oil price cap: Before the start of the war in Ukraine, oil and gas sales accounted for almost 50% of Russia’s revenues. Now, with companies and skilled workers fleeing the country, fossil fuels are one of the few lifelines it has left.
It's now a top priority for Kyiv to get its Western allies to take action against the "shadow fleet" of aging oil tankers Russia is using to sell its oil in violation of the sanctions. It is also insisting that its global partners close a gaping loophole that allows countries like India, Turkey and China to buy Russian crude at any price and refine it into petrol, diesel and other fuels for sale elsewhere.
Denting the Russian metals trade
More hawkish EU capitals are pushing for a ban on all imports of Russian aluminum, as some 80 percent of the lucrative trade in the metal with Russia is not currently sanctioned.
As with aluminum, Russian slabs are far cheaper than their European-made alternatives. Still, European Aluminium estimates Russian companies earn around €2.2 billion from exports.
Turning off the gas taps
Russia still accounted for around 15 percent of the EU's gas imports last year, even as the Continent upped imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from places like the U.S., Norway, Libya and Algeria. In fact, countries like Belgium and Spain even increased their gas purchases from Moscow in 2023.
That means the EU is still lining the Kremlin's pockets by buying Russian gas. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, EU gas payments to Russia over the past two years have topped €80 billon.
Tackling the middlemen
A lucrative black market has blossomed since Western allies banned many Russian imports of Western luxury products and "dual-use" goods that Moscow's armed forces can repurpose. Countries like Georgia and Armenia in the South Caucasus, and Kazakhstan in Central Asia, share or are close to the border with Russia and have important trading relations with Moscow.
Turkey, India and China all have cashed in on Moscow’s need for alternative trade trade routes, with Beijing shipping tons of hardware that could easily be used by Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. In this week's sanctions package, the EU is expected to add Chinese companies to the list of entities that can’t be traded with for battlefield and dual-use goods.
Saying no to Russian nuclear
In the EU, Moscow is still an important player in the bloc's civilian atomic energy industry. The barrier for tougher action appears to be Hungary. Budapest is currently expanding its Paks nuclear power station with the support of Rosatom, and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has vowed to block any sanctions on the sector.
“When it comes to nuclear, I think it's pretty clear,” said the European diplomat with knowledge of the talks. “Hungary has been crystal clear they would veto it — and probably some other member states are hiding behind Hungary too.”
WaPo: Trump and his allies are comparing Alexei Navalny’s plight to his own.
Navalny died in prison last week. His body has not yet been released. And his widow has vowed to fight on.
U.S. reaction: President Biden blamed Putin, and plans to levy “major sanctions.” Trump likened Navalny’s death — which he hasn’t condemned — to his own legal troubles.