Feb 25: E-Stories
Day731 Konstiantynivka CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Noel CDS ISW UKDef TimesRad Halushka BELPOL Viacorka Entous-Schwirtz EUComm OCCRP Mamedov Harding Bloomberg Baier Rosenberg
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ombudsman: 28,000 Ukrainian citizens in Russian captivity. The captives are spread across Russia and the occupied territories, according to Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Many are religious figures, journalists, NGO workers, and representatives from local governments, he said.
Russia launched a big missile attack on Konstiantynivka with S-300 ballistic missiles. It is reported that several private houses and apartment buildings are hit, as well as the railway station building and 2 more administrative buildings.
Ukrainian authorities uncovered 47 Russian spy networks operating inside the country last year, a senior security official said on Sunday.
Vasyl Maliuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine, made the remark during a televised conference in Kyiv, adding that more than 2,000 suspected “traitors” have been arrested since Moscow’s full-scale invasion began.
President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has no alternative to military assistance from the United States because there is a limited amount of air defence systems and their American analogues worldwide, particularly the Patriot systems, Zelenskyy said during the press conference following the Ukraine.Year 2024 conference.
Some 160 tons of Ukrainian grain was destroyed at a Polish railway station in an act of “impunity and irresponsibility”, a senior Ukrainian official has said.
The grain was in transit to the port of Gdansk and then to other countries. The fourth case of vandalism at Polish railway stations. The fourth case of impunity and irresponsibility.
CDS: Two teenage girls, who endured nearly two years under occupation, have been successfully repatriated to Ukrainian-controlled territory. At the onset of the full-scale war, the girls were residing with their grandparents in a small village in Luhansk Oblast, as their mother worked in the city. However, due to the Russian occupation of the village, immediate evacuation of the girls was not feasible.
Russian occupation authorities have started issuing Russian passports to remaining residents of Avdiivka.
Due to shelling, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been operating on a single power line since February 21, 2024, according to the Ministry of Energy press service.
Combat Situation Update
Defense Minister Umerov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi visited the front in the east.
"We listened to the commanders of the army groups regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility. The situation is complex in many directions and requires constant monitoring. The enemy carries out regular assaults on the positions of our troops," they emphasized. Umerov announced the reinforcement of some sections of the front line during a visit to the front.
CDS: The Ukrainian Defense Forces are anticipated to experience a critical shortage of ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles by the end of March 2024. This deficiency is expected to escalate significantly during spring and summer of 2024.
The intense air strikes on Kurakhove serves as a preparation to an impending offensive in this area in the upcoming days.
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 24.
Russian forces recently advanced near Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting in the area on February 24. Geolocated footage published on February 24 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south and southeast of Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut).
Geolocated footage published on February 24 indicates that elements of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) recently advanced within southeastern Lastochkyne (west of Avdiivka).
Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage published on February 24 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Robotyne.
CDS: In the upcoming period, the predominant means of the Russian Black Sea Fleet for executing long-range missile strikes against coastal targets will consist of three missile corvettes of Project 21631, four missile corvettes of Project 22800, and two submarines of Project 636.3.
"The capabilities of the Russian aviation are reduced by the fact that special equipment such as the A-50 and its crew are destroyed. But they are still able to plan further strikes on Ukrainian land. The more we destroy such planes, the further away aircraft dependant on their radars act from the front lines," Air Force spokesman Ignat said about the downing of two A-50 recon planes recently.
Noel Report: A Russian tank, including its rag, on fire in the Avdiivka direction. There are hundreds of videos published daily coming from the front with images of battles, and Russian and Ukrainian armaments being blown up. I
An air raid alert was announced in annexed Sevastopol, Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev said. “The smoke in the Sevastopol Bay area is the military using standard means of camouflage,” he wrote.
"In 2024, new surprises await the enemies in Crimea, and I do not recommend the civilian population to use the Crimean Bridge," head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov said in a statement. "Russia does not have Iranian missiles. North Korean ones are being used, but not on a large scale," he added.
GUR representative Andriy Yusov denied the rumors that Transnistria is allegedly preparing an appeal to Putin regarding accession to Russia.
“According to the information available to us, the unrecognized Transnistria is not planning to adopt similar decisions," Yusov emphasized.
A televised conference in Kyiv is being held to coincide with the two year anniversary of the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he hoped to be able to present a blueprint for peace to Russia in a summit in Switzerland in spring.
The fewer people who know the plans of the Ukrainian army, the faster the victory will be. Our plans for the counteroffensive last fall were on the table in the Kremlin before the counteroffensive began. Zelensky added that the capital Kyiv that troop rotations were critically important for the war effort and that Ukraine needed to better prepare its reserve forces.
“Now is the most difficult moment for our unity, and if we all fall apart, from the outside and God forbid inside, then this will be the weakest moment. It has not happened yet,” the Ukrainian leader told a news conference in Kyiv.
“31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in this war. Not 300,000, not 150,000 ... Putin is lying there ... But nevertheless, this is a big loss for us.”
Russian forces will attempt to conduct another offensive in Ukraine in late May or summer, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday.
“We will prepare for their assault. Their assault that began on 8 October has not brought any results, I think,” Zelenskiy told a news conference.
Behind the Lines
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has told NBC News. Speaking on the Meet the Press show, he said:
Of course, Ukraine can win. Of course, Ukraine has already succeeded, militarily, in one of the most profound objectives it had, which was to keep the country from falling into Russian hands. It has already done that. And Ukraine can go further in retaking territory that Russia has occupied, ensuring Russia fails, and ensuring Ukraine prevails.
But it can only so, if it has the tools that it needs. And that is why the United States needs to deliver the aid package that passed on a massive bipartisan vote in the Senate. The House needs to step up and pass that bill.
Olena Halushka: Believe in Ukraine. Don't fall into the russian trap of self-defeat. Demand maximum military aid now, including Taurus missiles, & confiscation of russian assets #MakeRussiaPay, real sanctions, the return of all kidnapped children and prisoners of war. Ukraine can and should win.
Belarus held so-called parliamentary and local elections that are expected to keep the country’s authoritarian leader, despite calls for a boycott from the opposition. Self-proclaimed president Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron hand for nearly 30 years, accuses the West of trying to use the vote to undermine his government and “destabilise” the nation of 9.5 million people.
Most candidates belong to the four officially registered parties: Belaya Rus, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Party of Labor and Justice. Those parties all support Lukashenko’s policies. About a dozen other parties were denied registration last year.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who is in exile in neighboring Lithuania after challenging Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, urged voters to boycott the elections.
Franak Viacorka: Great success! Today, our friends from BELPOL have hacked 2000 screens in public spaces all over Belarus and played the address of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, calling to support Ukraine, ignore sham elections & continue resistance. The video was played continuously for 2 hours.
In a striking "V for Vendetta" moment, Tsikhanouskaya's video message infiltrated about 2000 screens across Belarus on February 24, 2024. It mirrored scenes from the iconic film. It shows a power of digital dissent, unnerving the KGB with its unexpected reach and bold message.
Polish farmers have blocked a major highway into Germany in the latest such protest against EU regulations and taxes, including what they view as unfair competition from Ukraine’s cheaper produce. On Sunday, farmers from Poland blocked the A2 motorway near Slubice, in the east on the border with Germany.
NYT: The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin—Entous & Schwirtz
Nestled in a dense forest, the Ukrainian military base appears abandoned and destroyed, its command center a burned-out husk, a casualty of a Russian missile barrage early in the war.
But that is above ground.
Not far away, a discreet passageway descends to a subterranean bunker where teams of Ukrainian soldiers track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between Russian commanders. On one screen, a red line followed the route of an explosive drone threading through Russian air defenses from a point in central Ukraine to a target in the Russian city of Rostov.
The underground bunker, built to replace the destroyed command center in the months after Russia’s invasion, is a secret nerve center of Ukraine’s military.
There is also one more secret: The base is almost fully financed, and partly equipped, by the C.I.A.
“One hundred and ten percent,” Gen. Serhii Dvoretskiy, a top intelligence commander, said in an interview at the base.
Now entering the third year of a war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, the intelligence partnership between Washington and Kyiv is a linchpin of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. The C.I.A. and other American intelligence agencies provide intelligence for targeted missile strikes, track Russian troop movements and help support spy networks.
But the partnership is no wartime creation, nor is Ukraine the only beneficiary. [continue]
Meanwhile in Russia
Минута в минуту: “Spontaneous anti-war rallies are taking place across Russia. A thousand people gather near the Gostiny Dvor in St. Petersburg, chanting "No to war!". Police officers are filling autozaks with them. A total of 960 people in 44 cities have been detained so far.”
Allied Support
A televised conference in Kyiv was held to coincide with the two year anniversary of the war. Several ministers have spoken so far, including Kyiv’s defence minister, who said that some 50% of Western arms deliveries to Ukraine do not arrive on time; the country’s interior minister affirmed that not one weapon has crossed the border from Ukraine into the EU during two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion; while the strategic industries minister said that Ukraine tripled its weapons production last year and 500 companies are now working in the country’s defence sector.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his intention to impose additional sanctions against Russian citizens and organizations, thereby expressing solidarity with the decision of the G7 member countries. The statement was made during online negotiations between the group leaders, NHK TV channel reports. Japan announced the introduction of new sanctions after the summit of G7 leaders, which took place on February 24.
In Lithuania, the fundraising campaign "Radarom!" raised €8.2 million for the purchase of Lithuanian-made equipment for the Ukrainian military. With the funds raised, 1115 safe soldier kits will be purchased and delivered to Ukraine.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Mykolaiv on Sunday. Previously she also visited Odesa where she was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. Russian drones followed her motorcade during her visit.
According to the correspondent of the publication, the German delegation was planning to visit a desalination plant 50 kilometers from the front line. Along the way, a reconnaissance UAV approached the convoy of cars, after which there is usually an air attack. The drivers tried to get away from the drone, but it continued its pursuit. Eventually they managed to break away, but the visit to the station was canceled for security reasons.
The leaders of G7 countries have pledged support for Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia after a virtual meeting Saturday on the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which ranks as the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two. After the meeting, the G7 leaders didn’t make any public statement about further military aid, but urged “the approval of additional support to close Ukraine’s remaining budget gap for 2024”.
Zelensky welcomed western leaders to Kyiv on the anniversary, declaring that Vladimir Putin “must lose absolutely everything”. Four western leaders, including the prime ministers of Italy, Canada, and Belgium, arrived in Kyiv on Saturday to show solidarity with Ukraine on the second anniversary of the war.
Some 20 EU leaders will gather in Paris on Monday to send Putin a message of European resolve on Ukraine and counter the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is bound to win a war now entering its third year, France said.
French president Emmanuel Macron has invited his European counterparts to the Elysee palace for a working meeting announced at short notice because of what his advisers say is an escalation in Russian aggression over the past few weeks.
“We want to send Putin a very clear message, that he won’t win in Ukraine,” a presidential adviser told reporters in a briefing. “Our goal is to crush this idea he wants us to believe that he would be somehow winning.”
Andrew A Michta: It is about telling Putin that NATO is led by someone whose country understands Russia and for whom the threat is existential.
We need this kind of a person to steer the alliance forward, to bring us all closer to unity on the nature of the threat, to move every ally to meet its capabilities commitment.
The point of contact is in the East, and I would submit that one of the reasons we allowed the situation to deteriorate over the years (2008 Georgia, 2014 Ukraine, 2015 Syria, and 2022 Ukraine again) is because for too long voices from the Eastern flank warning about Russian imperialism were not heeded by Western Europeans. It’s time to course-correct and appoint the next Secretary General from the Eastern frontier.
Please note that I am not advocating for this or that specific candidate, or this or that country. But what we need at this time is the next NATO Secretary General to be selected from the Eastern flank.
‘It’s the new normal’: In Kyiv’s newest book store, readers fear how Ukraine’s story will end—Luke Harding
There is a coffee bar, a space for literary events and thousands of books displayed on the ground floor and in the large brick-lined basement. Signs point customers to sections: novels, history, fan fiction and foreign literature.
Welcome to Sens, Ukraine’s biggest bookshop in the heart of Kyiv. With unlikely timing, it opened its doors last week, two years after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion.
Putin had planned a triumphal military parade down Khreshchatyk, the capital’s main boulevard where Sens is found, next to the office of mayor Vitali Klitschko. The plan failed.
Customers browsing the shelves and sipping espresso said they believed Ukraine would prevail. But they admitted to occasional feelings of despair. “One time I think we will win and everything will be fine. The next I feel myself broken,” said Anastasia Ponomarenko, a 24-year-old entrepreneur with her own lingerie business. She added: “We have to remain strong. If we don’t believe in victory we will lose everything.”
Ponomarenko had bought a copy of Laura Nowlin’s novel If He Had Been with Me after seeing it on TikTok. She said her father was fighting on the frontline. “I read a lot now. It’s some kind of meditation and release,” she explained. She said she had booked a holiday to Portugal and was looking forward to a break. But she saw her future in Ukraine, war or no war. “I would like to have a family and for my kids to grow up here,” she said.
Nearby, Anton Soloviov, a 28-year-old content curator, was working on his laptop. “In terms of culture I’m optimistic. Politics it’s hard to say,” he said. He pointed out that the outcome of the war depended on “so many things” including backing from western countries. “It seems to be a bit thin,” he noted. He said he just finished reading Circe, the bestselling 2018 novel by Madeline Miller, which adapts Greek myths.
Could Ukraine win? “What does that mean?,” he answered. In Soloviov’s view Russia’s war against Ukraine had raged for hundreds of years. “For it to end Russia will have to stop existing in its current form. Hard to imagine,” he said. He said he felt as if he were leading a “delayed life”, waiting for a return to his pre-invasion existence, which may not ever happen. “It’s the new normal. It’s depressing to think maybe this will last 10 more years,” he admitted. [continue]
Draghi Urges EU to Ready Huge Spending as World Order Shifts—Bloomberg
The European Union must find ways of financing massive investment quickly to catch up with major shifts in the world order, according to Mario Draghi.
“Many profound changes have taken place in the last few years in the global economic order,” he said on Saturday. “These changes have a variety of consequences, one of which is clear is that we’ll have to invest an enormous amount in a relatively short time in Europe.”
Fox News' Bret Baier repeatedly fact check deranged and befuddled grandpa trump as he tries to spin his election lies and conspiracy theories.