Feb 28: Alexander Khara- A Year of the nine-year war
Thread published on February 25, 2023
Alexander Khara: A year of the nine-year war
The brutal second Chechen war, orchestrated by Putin to grip power, was hardly noticed. russia was let in from the cold just a year after the invasion of Georgia.
Contrary to common sense, the Kremlin was awarded more say in global affairs and even more role in Europe, thanks to the Partnership for modernization Angela Merkel had championed.
The injected poison of strategic corruption paralyzed old Europeans, while President Obama saw no serious stakes in 🇺🇦 to stop 🇷🇺imperial advent. The war started on 20 Feb 2014. Ukraine was put on hold after the Minsk theatrical performance became dull for the enemy and partners.
THE SHOCK OF 24/02/22. All of the actors failed, each and everyone in its own sense. The old Europeans didn't believe Ukraine would stand a chance against a superior force.
The US and UK didn't think the UAF were able to repel aggression but were hoping that the resistance would be fierce, so SOF had to be trained and armed. The Poles and Balts knew that Ukraine would withstand the blow and fight tooth and nail.
russia believed in the success of a new "Operation Storm-333" (seizure of Tajbeg Palace and assassination of Afghan leader Hafizullah Amin). Ukraine believed everything would start in the East but took precautious measures that saved the lion's share of assets and capabilities.
RESILIENCE. The Ukrainian society showed its unity in the face of the existential threat and readiness to sacrifice for freedom and democracy. Ukrainians conscripted into the Defence Forces in huge numbers.
Along with professional militaries, first blow was met by a newly organized territorial defense. Ordinary citizens were fighting and assisting the UAF. Volunteers stepped in in their invaluable support by providing everything the soldiers needed, from clothes to lethal weapons.
PERSONAL COURAGE. "I need ammunition, not a ride" by President Volodymyr Zelensky is both a symbol of a turning point in history and a sign of personal courage a comedian turned to be a wartime leader.
"Russian warship, go F yourself," pronounced by what seems to be a doomed soldier, became a motto of the war. People made of steel defended Mariupol and AzovStal. "Bakhmut Stands" and degrades russia's special forces, regular forces, and Wagner criminal forces.
OPEN HEART. Nations of the free world rushed to give asylum to refugees and help Ukrainians who stayed at home. People across the globe show their support to Ukraine and its people, sending humanitarian aid, donating to various causes, and even buying weapons for the UAF.
Foreign volunteers are fighting alongside Ukrainians, helping people in need on the ground, reporting from the battlefields and cities under missile barrages. Foreign cities turned blue and yellow in a show of support.
GENOCIDE. Russian history is rich in genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, systemic muss murders, deportation, suppression, and other types of violence against its own people and those abroad. Impunity for previous crimes enabled this tool against Ukrainians again.
That's the reason why Ukrainians are determined to bring russians to justice in the name of millions of people murdered by the previous russian regimes, which contemporary russia and russians en masse adore.
WITTY DEFENSE. The UAF showed readiness for asymmetric warfare, the ability to absorb the blow, and constantly adjust to the changing environment. The manurable defense wore down the disproportionate size of enemy forces while saving the Ukrainian ones.
The UAF easily integrates new (Western-made) weapon systems and adjusts its operational behavior to employ newly acquired capabilities in accordance with modern warfighting doctrines. Innovation is one of the key drivers of success.
The successful counter-offensive in the South and East proved that the UAF is capable of getting things done, provided it has the necessary tools.
RAMSTEIN. The UAF's unexpected (in the West) success made it possible to rethink strategies for supporting Ukraine. While acknowledgment of fallacies of the self-drawn "red lines," crossing thereof, in the mind of Western politicians, could have triggered a russian escalation,
was important in widening the range of capabilities provided to Ukraine. The United States took a leading role in a coordinated effort to sustain Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
While the Poles and Balts were fierce lobbyists for more support, the Brits have been playing a galvanizing role by providing certain types of weapons ahead of the others (missiles, helicopters, tanks, etc.).
The (falsely) perceived trigger of World War III has been shifted from Leopard MBTs to ATACMS and fighter jets, so there's a way to go. The Ramstein is equally important for fighting a war now and, hopefully, enabling Ukraine to deter and defend further russian aggressions in the future.
TREASURE. Ukraine has been receiving an unprecedented amount of financial and humanitarian support. While the Free world was aiding Ukraine, it was imposing the cost on Russia.
Though sanctions didn't stop the russian war of aggression, they limited the Kremlin's ability to wage war and, along with export control measures, restrained its ability to replenish. The global eco suffered from war-related factors (energy, food), increasing cost of war for everyone.
EVOLUTION OF DIPLOMACY. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is extremely important for the Ukrainian nation. But it also serves the interests of other nations because it doesn't allow russia to turn its aggression against Ukraine into a broader confrontation with 🇺🇸.
It's a failed attempt of Moscow to impose the great power competition scheme and trade its "cooperation" on global issues for allowing it to re-establish spheres of influence in Europe that justified the "suspension" of their participation in the new START Treaty.
There are no immediate negative consequences of such a decision, and, highly likely, there won't be any in the future, for a new nuclear arms race for Moscow would mean old results – a state collapse.
The backward Soviet political system and ineffective economic model didn't survive ideological bankruptcy, the arms race, the war in Afghanistan, and Chornobyl nuclear disaster.
There has been an evolution of Western thinking from compromising (territories) after stopping the russian offense to not allowing russia to win. However, not all nations readjusted their public goals to helping Ukraine to defeat russian militarily.
There has been progress in hitting targets in Crimea, initially with Ukrainian weapons and now with Western ones. Yet, there're still reservations about the prospects of the liberation of the peninsula. It all started in Crimea and should end there.
Anything less than returning Crimea back would mean a constant existential threat to Ukraine; an unsustainable economy (due to the disruption of Sea Lines of Communications); Russia's ability to project its power in the Black Sea region, the Mediterranean, and the MENA region; and most importantly – ruined world order pillars (the UN Charter) and the European security framework (the Helsinki Final Act of 1975).
THE ENEMIES WITHIN. russia’s war of choice found its supporters in Free societies. For various reasons, far-right and far-left forces, though with different messaging, persuade the same goal: to undermine Ukrainian ability to defend itself and restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The pockets of russians who have been enjoying free societies are on the march to support putin's regime and his genocidal war against Ukraine.
A NEW "NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT." China, India, and many other developing states seized an opportunity to increase their trade with Russia, which is offering a bargain for its resources in desperate need of hard currency cash inflows.
Global South thinks it's not its fight and often frames the conflict as not so different from the russian propaganda narrative. It's a challenge for the West because there could be no "Non-Aligned Movement" – either countries chose a democratic camp or they're in the authoritarian one
ZEITENWENDE. The European security environment has been dramatically changed. And the most drastic changes are undergoing in Germany. The German political class is abandoning the Ostpolitik, which has been a dogma for its strategy towards Russia and "in-between" since 1960th.
Before 24 February 2022, it could have been perceived as an anathema that a social democrat would supply weapons to Ukraine, which is in conflict with Russia. Not less unimaginable has been a decision by a social democrat to boost Bundeswehr warfighting capabilities.
ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY. The United States averted isolationism and regained the Free world leader's status. Ukrainians have been saying that Ukraine is a fortress of democracy on the Eastern frontier and is fighting against tyranny.
Now, the United States sees russia’s war as a global fight against autocracy against democracy. It became too evident that russia’s success means norms and principles of international law have been demolished, as has been a rules-based world order.
The European allies of 🇺🇸 are united as never before and more ready to see challenges beyond the immediate neighborhood.
PEOPLES' REPUBLIC. Though China has suffered a lot from Putin's strategic blunder, it doesn't want to leave a junior partner behind. Russia's unnecessary war in the post COVID environment caused economic fallout in critical markets and globally.
The US regaining leadership and consolidating NATO isn't something that Beijing was willing to see. Free nations, including Taiwan, are beefing up their defenses, while the US is adjusting its contingency plans regarding Taiwan.
In addition to strained trade relations, Chinese economic future and defense capabilities will be restrained by collectively imposed export controls. A possible decision to join Iran and North Korea in supplying Russia with weapons would significantly damage Chinese relations with the Free world.
HOPE. The Russian aggression against Ukraine is a watershed moment in European history and a factor that significantly affects the future of the globe. There will be no speedy decline of the West to the same extent as the rapid rise of China.
The challenges authoritarian states pose to the Free world and developing nations are being met with increasing readiness and resolve.
Though uncertainty and turbulence caused by the rise of Asia and the declining role of the Western powers will remain in place for years to come, an outline of an adjusted world order has started to appear.
Russia will have its last chance to become a normal nation-state when it is defeated in Ukraine militarily. Europe whole, free, and at peace may come true with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus as integral parts of the European political and security space.