Feb 28: E-Stories
Day734 RUattacks UAPows CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies USHouseRep A&P UKDef ISW Zabrisky Macron UADef Rushton CNN Johnson ITAParli Mzona SOTA Sky Christie D'Anieri TheHardestHour IPSOS
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Just a reminder that we’ll be meeting with paid subscribers on Zoom this evening at 6pm to speak with Andrea Chalupa to talk about the latest news.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: Ukraine downs 10 out of 10 Russian drones launched overnight. Mobile firing groups from Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces and the Air Force's anti-aircraft missile units successfully destroyed all 10 drones in Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 9 over past day. Russian attacks against Ukraine injured nine people over the past day, regional authorities reported early on Feb. 27.
Russian strike kills elderly woman in Kherson Oblast village. Russian forces struck the village of Veletenske in Kherson Oblast on Feb. 27, killing an 82-year-old woman, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
Zarina Zabrisky in Kherson: “Today, shelling has been pretty much around the clock. It is random; you cannot tell the time or place. My trip from a grocery store--and also what I've learned at the end about the Chancellor of Germany. Perhaps, he can visit Kherson and rethink.”
Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with drones and missiles. In total, 11/13 Shahed drones and 2/4 Kh-59 were shot down. In addition, Russia launched one Iskander-M/KN-23 and a Kh-31P anti radar missile. Impact is being determined.
Two police officers were killed and four were injured by Russian shelling in the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy, Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said on Tuesday. “The bodies of two police officers were recovered from under the rubble. We express our condolences to the families of the dead,” he wrote.
Russian VDV Airborne Forces use a Ukrainian POW as a human shield, which is a war crime. In 2014 in the war in Donbas, the Russian forces had used Ukrainian women as human shields, placing them on their tanks so that the Ukrainian forces would not shoot at them. This 'practice is widespread amongst terrorist groups, such as Hamas.
President Zelensky has arrived in Albania for the “Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit” on security. Albania’s foreign minister, Igli Hasani, said Albania was “standing in solidarity with Ukraine in its heroic fight against Russia’s aggression”. Albania, a Nato member since 2009, has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine but has been quieter in public about supplying it with arms.
Combat Situation Update
Military: Ukraine withdraws from Stepove and Severne villages near Avdiivka. The two villages are located north of Lastochkyne, which was occupied by Russian troops on Feb. 26.
Ukraine reports heavy battles in Bakhmut direction as Russia pulls in reserves. Intense fighting is taking place in the Bakhmut sector in Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces are attempting to advance toward nearby Chasiv Yar, Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on air on Feb. 27.
ISW: Russia may seize more territory near Avdiivka, but rough terrain will slow their advance. Russian forces may be able to make more gains north and northwest of Avdiivka, but rough terrain in areas farther west will slow down advancing troops.
Air Force: Russia has not used A-50 aircraft for days. Russia has not deployed an A-50 early warning and control aircraft for days, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on air on Feb. 27, only days after Russia lost its second plane of this model.
Jimmy Rushton: I’m in Orikhiv Raion, speaking to the commander of a Ukrainian military unit currently deployed in Robotyne. As he described, the situation there is very tough for the Ukrainian defenders…
“The Russians are advancing around 250 to 500 metres per day. They’re hitting us with everything; artillery, FPV drones, aviation (glide bombs) and helicopters”. His unit - like every other unit we spoke to - mentioned the lack of Ukrainian artillery support due to supply issues.
“The Russians are pushing from all directions. They use ATVs to advance quickly, copying our tactics from the counteroffensive. They’re fighting much smarter and they have the advantage in numbers and firepower”.
“They hit us with helicopters - both Ka-52s using long range ATGMs and other types that “lob” rockets from behind the line”. The Russians also use glide bombs dropped by fixed wing aircraft well out of the reach of Ukrainian air defences.
The Ukrainians had no air support for their counteroffensive - labels that a key failing. Promises of F-16s are welcomed, but “there has been a lot of talk”.
The importance of drones cannot be overstated, “in the last six months the war has completely changed, now it is about drones - of all types”. Ukraine still has the advantage when it comes to FPV drones (something I’ve heard from others) because their pilots / tactics are better.
FPV drones are, in his opinion, now more effective than conventional artillery. And Ukraine has a lot of them, “we used to save them for groups of Russians or armoured vehicles, now we’ll use 3 to chase down one soldier”. Artillery is still important though.
Russia has the advantage with “conventional” medium to large drones; Russian Orlan and Supercam drones are monitoring them constantly, the later having extremely good optics.
The commander still believes Ukraine can and will win, but makes it clear that the unreliability of recent support - and the conditions attached - are costing a large number of Ukrainians their lives.
Alex Kocharov: These Russian military personnel are posing somewhere in Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine, in front of a destroyed building. The text reads ‘Russkiy Mir’, literally, ‘Russian World’. This is Russia’s vision for occupied neighbouring countries: death and destruction.
Behind the Lines
Janet Yellen, the US secretary of the treasury, has called for G7 countries to urgently seize profits from Russian assets frozen in the west and redirect them to Ukraine. “There is a strong international law, economic, and moral case for moving forward. This would be a decisive response to Russia’s unprecedented threat to global stability.”
National Resistance Center: Ukrainian partisans blow up Putin's party office in occupied Nova Kahkovka. The Ukrainian resistance blew up an office of the United Russia party in the occupied Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, the National Resistance Center said on Feb. 27.
SBU: Antonov company officials face 15 years for obstructing defense of Hostomel airport. The former director of the Antonov State Enterprise, Serhii Bychkov, and the head of the Aviation Security Department, Oleksandr Netosov, face 15 years in prison for allegedly obstructing the country's defense, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on Feb. 27.
Russian "volunteers" talk about how they deliver Musk’s Starlink terminals, as well as drones, to Russian forces at the front line. Musk has denied that Starlink is being used by the Russian forces. These videos have probably been approved by Russian military so they are also meant to put Musk on notice, and press upon Western audiences that the Russians can obtain anything they need despite sanctions. The issue of sanctions enforcement must be reviewed. That said, I think you would need staff the size of an army to conduct due diligence.
UK charges another suspected Russian spy. Tihomir Ivanov Ivanchev, 37, is the latest in a group of Bulgarian citizens suspected of espionage for Russia in the U.K.
CNN: President Zelensky met with Speaker Johnson in his office back in December. And Speaker Johnson lied directly to his face saying he supported Ukraine and would do everything to help Ukraine. Speaker Johnson lies to our allies and lies to the American people every day.
Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia for talks with crown prince. President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 27 for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Zelensky announced on social media.
Media investigation: Kremlin uses Russian Red Cross as propaganda tool, violating its tenets. The Kremlin uses state funding and appointment of loyalists to the Russian Red Cross (RRC) to mold it into a propaganda tool while violating its core principles of neutrality and independence, a joint investigation by a team of journalists published on VSquare on Feb. 27 reveals.
One of the tractors at work in Brussels on Monday.
North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July to support Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, South Korean media reported on Tuesday.
South Korea’s defence minister, Shin Won-sik, said the containers might carry more than 3 million 152mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122mm rounds.
“It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent,” Shin said, according to the Yonhap news agency.
Hardcore protesting in Prague as the demonstrators were waiting for the arrival of Viktor Orban and Roberto Rico on Feb 26.
Meanwhile in Russia
FT: Leaked files reveal Russian military's criteria for nuclear strike. Leaked Russian military documents outline Russia's doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons use, including the minimum criteria for using tactical nuclear weapons, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Feb. 28.
Mediazona English: 70-year-old Oleg Orlov, Soviet era dissident, co-chair of Memorial, hostage negotiator, and one of the most prominent human right defenders in Russia, is being taken from court, which sentenced him to 2.5 years in prison for "discrediting" the Russian army. At least 8 law enforcers, faces closed, escort Oleg Orlov from the courtroom. People who gathered to support him are crying “We love you!”
A business associate of the oligarch Roman Abramovich has failed in his latest attempt to overturn sanctions which were imposed on him after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a case widely seen as a crucial legal test for the post-Brexit UK sanctions regime. Eugene Shvidler, who served on the board of companies owned by Abramovich, was sanctioned by the UK government in March 2022 as part of measures to target Russia-linked oligarchs and officials after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
SOTA: In Moscow, security forces detained a picketer. The girl went out onto the street with a poster, “Putin is killing Ukraine and Russia”. A friend of hers informed human rights activists about the detention of activist Agatha-Rose Gerth. According to OVD-Info, the girl is currently in the Tverskoy district police department. Photo: OVD-Info
The United States and UK are sanctioning the Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force and Houthi supporters. The United States is also sanctioning shipping companies supporting Iran's Ministry of Defense. We will defend the region’s vital waterways from Iran-enabled Houthi attacks.
The Russian propaganda networks, under the direction of Russian military, should be proud of their handiwork. NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard's reporting on Trump voters echoing rhetoric on Putin, Russia and Ukraine. This isn’t a scientific poll, of course. It does reflect that these voters parrot narratives that are repeated ad nauseum at Trump’s rallies and then amplified through various online platforms.
Poll: 44% of Ukrainians believe West tired of supporting Ukraine. The share of Ukrainians who believe the West is tired of supporting Ukraine has risen from 30% to 44% in just four months, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on Feb. 27.
Allied Support
The EU should consider using profits from frozen Russian assets to buy military supplies for Ukraine, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday, reports news agency Reuters.
“It is time to start a conversation about using the windfall profits of frozen Russian assets to jointly purchase military equipment for Ukraine,” she told the European parliament in a speech urging the EU to do more on defence policy.
She added: “There could be no stronger symbol and no greater use for that money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live.”
The European Parliament officially approved the creation of an aid fund for Ukraine and the transfer of €50 billion over a period of 4 years.
The Netherlands will provide €100 million in aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is struggling with ammunition shortages, and that is why the Netherlands is joining a plan by the Czech Republic to buy ammunition, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said.
France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, said on Monday he refused to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine, but said no consensus existed on the step, at a meeting of 20 mainly European leaders in Paris.
Protecting France’s strategic ambiguity he said “there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.”
Macron also announced that a new coalition will work to supply Ukraine with “medium- and long-range missiles and bombs”.
France and other allies of Ukraine will “create a coalition for deep strikes and therefore medium- and long-range missiles and bombs,” Macron was quoted as saying at a press conference.
France’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said on Tuesday that nothing was off the table in western efforts to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine.
Stoltenberg said that “Nato allies are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine. We have done that since 2014 and stepped up after the full-scale invasion. But there are no plans for Nato combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.”
Poland’s PM, Donald Tusk, about sending in Polish troops to Ukraine:
Poland does not plan to send its troops to the territory of Ukraine. I think that we should not speculate today whether there will be circumstances that could change this position.
Sweden, Czech Republic and Poland have said they are not considering sending troops to Ukraine, Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, said this morning he will not be sending troops to Ukraine, saying it is not a relevant question for Nato at the moment.
“Right now we are fully occupied with sending advanced materials to from Sweden to Ukraine in many different ways, like many other countries are. So that is a whole other thing. There are not any requests from Ukraine’s side either for that. That question is not relevant.
“There is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.”
Mikhailo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian official, has welcomed talk of the possibility of European nations sending troops to Ukraine, though several countries have already said they are not considering doing so.
“This shows, firstly, an absolute awareness of the risks posed to Europe by a militaristic, aggressive Russia,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in a written comment on Macron’s statement.
The Kremlin has suggested that conflict between Russia and the US-led Nato military alliance would become inevitable if European members of Nato sent troops to fight in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
At the Italian Parliament yesterday, “20 Days in Mariupol” was shown: there were Italian MPs present as well as leaders of the Ukrainian community in Italy. The film should be broadcast far and wide in Italy to counter the Russian networks which have had such an impact on Italians vis-a-vis Russia’s criminal war against Ukraine.
Biden meets with Congress leaders to discuss government funding, Ukraine aid package. "I think the consequence of inaction every day in Ukraine is dire. I’ve been speaking to some of our G7 partners, and they’re very concerned," U.S. President Joe Biden said.
House Speaker, Mike Johnson, reiterating his view that the U.S. can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.
Andrew D’Anieri at the Atlantic Council: New Data Progress polling shows 74% of Dems and 52% of independents believe aid to Ukraine is a national priority for the US. Even a plurality of Republicans (48%) say Ukraine aid is a priority. Americans know support for Ukraine is a strategic layup for the United States.
Compare this data with an IPSOS poll conducted on Italian voters asking which war was more ‘relevant’ to Italy—Ukraine or Gaza? The results are not surprising given the fact that Italian TV networks currently focus on events in Israel, and that there has been an increase of so-called protests organised by fringe groups in the major Italian cities roping in young Italians. Voters between 35 to 65 + have said that Ukraine is more relevant, but not overwhelmingly. The data is disturbing since a further erosion of Ukrainian defence and instability would directly impact Italians and Europe in general.
Programming notes…
The Hardest Hour: A documentary film by director Alan Badoev and channel «1+1 Ukraine», created from 200 hours of footage: the survival, resistance, and life of Ukrainians during the war. Every minute of the film was shot by Ukrainians on their mobile phones. Some heroes survived, some were killed... But their last actions and voices remain. The world must hear and feel the voices of Ukrainians. The Hardest Hour is happening right now. Support Ukraine. Support freedom and independence.
Resolute 🇺🇸🇺🇦