Feb 29: E-Stories
Day735 EU RUattacks CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies China USHouse Letter Albania A&P UKDef ISW CDS Matviichuk Katerji ChathamHouse Kenyon Davis Glen Tass Sandu DeCroo Decode39 KF Halushka
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky names the states that will be at risk if Russia is given a break:
"If we allow Putin to survive politically, Russia will then use different tactics. It will influence those countries where it can get an immediate effect of success. And this means smaller countries, and therefore, I am sure, the Baltic states, Moldova, and the Balkan states, wherever the Soviet Union had a presence, are under threat.”
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen: "I am proud to announce that we will set up an Office for Defence Innovation in Kyiv. This will bring Ukraine ever closer to Europe and it will enable all EU countries to draw on Ukraine's battlefield experience and expertise in industrial defence innovation."
On Feb 28, as a result of nighttime Russian shelling of Kherson, two residential buildings in one of the city's microdistricts burned. Despite repeated shelling, the fire was extinguished by the morning, the State Emergency Service reported.
Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast train station kills 2, including child. The child's mother was also reportedly injured. She is being provided medical care but is in serious condition, according to Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Oleksii Kuleba.
Russian shelling of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills woman. Russia launched an artillery strike against Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Feb. 28, killing a 61-year-old woman, Governor Serhii Lysak said.
Noel Report—Ukrainian mobile air defense units in Kharkiv oblast: this is what it looks like when the Ukrainian defence is trying to repel a Shahed drone attack. The drone hits the ground just tens of meters away.
Parliament's website reportedly hit by cyberattack. There are no further details on the reported cyberattack, including Verkhovna Rada’s assumptions about those involved in the hacking. At the time of publication, the link to the parliament's Telegram was already working properly.
ISW: Russian authorities are reportedly systematizing the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 27 that Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.
The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture & reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.”
Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives.
Combat Situation Update
Situation around Orlivka-Tonen'ke near Avdiivka as of 28/02. With footage of Russian soldiers geolocated just east of Orlivka and images from inside Orlivka indicating Russian presence, the settlement is high likely lost. Tonen'ke rumored to be abandoned by the AFU.
Military: Russia uses 'human wave' attacks near Krynky in Kherson Oblast. Russian troops keep conducting "human wave" assault efforts without using armored vehicles in the village of Krynky in Kherson oblast, Nataliia Humeniuk, a spokesperson of Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, said on Feb. 28 on national television.
Third Assault Brigade says it knocked out Russian forces from Krasnohorivka. Soldiers of Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade said on Feb. 28 that they drove out Russian troops from the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Oz Katerji: Two years ago today, Russia launched a full-scale of Ukraine. In the 38 days that followed, Russian forces were driven out of Kyiv, leaving nothing but horror in their wake. My directorial debut tells the story of those who survived the Battle for Kyiv.
Russian channels report that in Olenivka, occupied Donetsk region, a Russian military site was hit by HIMARS projectiles. Units of the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, got hit during an awarding ceremony. As a result, 19 soldiers were killed, 12 got wounded.
Behind the Lines
VoA: US military using own funding to train Ukrainian soldiers. U.S. military officials told the VoA that if nothing changes, the U.S. Army in Europe and Africa may run out of resources "for everything," including the support for Ukraine and training with NATO partners, by summer.
In Krasnoyarsk, Russia, war criminal Serhii Konkeev was eliminated. His car was blown up. Konkeev confessed earlier that he had killed captured Ukrainian soldiers and Polish volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine.
A note on Transnistria asking Russia for ‘help’. Transnistria is surrounded to the north east to north west by Ukraine and what is left by Moldova. There is a small Russian contingent there between 2,000 to 3,000 Russian units plus some armaments and kit. Should the Russians declare Transnistria a Russian enclave or statelet, it would be a legitimate target for the Ukrainian forces. Whatever kit is located there has probably been sold off, as most Russian hinterland forces do and the area is basically used as a haven for drug smuggling and other wares. The news has probably been put out to distract from another operation we’re not supposed to be paying attention to.
Navalny's widow at European Parliament: Sanctions don't work on Putin, more innovative ways needed. Speaking at the parliament, Yulia Navalnaya accused Russian authorities of orchestrating Navalny's death, which, in her words, showed that "Putin is capable of anything and that you cannot negotiate with him.
Meanwhile in Russia
Lavrov will attend a diplomacy forum in Turkey from Friday, the countries’ governments said. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that Lavrov will meet Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan at the gathering.
The US embassy in Russia said on Wednesday that US consular officials have visited Paul Whelan, a US Marine Corps veteran who is imprisoned in Russia for espionage, in prison in the Mordovia region.
Twenty-three movie theaters in 20 cities across Russia will hold live screenings of Vladimir Putin’s February 29 state-of-the-nation address to the Federal Assembly. The Cinema 5 theater chain, which is organizing the screenings, distributed promotional materials featuring an image of Putin and the slogan “Goals will be achieved.” Earlier this month, movie theaters in Vologda and Irkutsk staged free screenings of Putin’s interview with American conservative pundit Tucker Carlson.
A music video is circulating on Russian social media that repurposes footage from the hit television show “A Hoodlum's Promise: Blood on the Asphalt” for an apparent get-out-the-vote promo. Featuring a rewritten song originally performed in Tatar by the Russian electronic hip-hop duo Aigel, the video amplifies familiar Kremlin talking points from the past quarter century, implying that participation in elections is necessary to prevent a return to the 1990s and defy the Yankees.
Latvia extends entry ban for Russian citizens. Latvia has extended visa restrictions for Russian citizens until March 2025, the Latvian Foreign Affairs Ministry announced on Feb. 27.
New US sanctions against Russia could affect the nation’s oil exports to India, which is the largest buyer of its seaborne crude, reports Reuters. The sanctions will also complicate attempts by Indian state-owned refiners to secure annual supply contracts.
The sanctions target Russia's leading oil shipping line Sovcomflot, which Washington has accused of involvement in violating the G7-imposed price cap on Russian oil.
"Indian refiners are concerned the latest sanctions will create "challenges" in getting vessels for Russian oil and could drive up freight rates. That may narrow the discount for the oil, which is bought from traders and Russian companies on a delivered basis," Reuters noted.
Pashinyan calls Putin's military bloc a threat to Armenia's security "The CSTO, instead of fulfilling its obligations to Armenia in the security sphere, on the contrary - creates security problems. And this position, I say directly, is a threat to Armenia's national security," Pashinyan was quoted as saying by the Armenian News Agency.
Maria Zakharova will be on one of Berlusconi’s TV channels on Feb 28. I give up.
Allied Support
Estonian Major General in Reserve Neeme Väli has stated that European leaders talking about supporting Ukraine with the possible deployment of Western ground forces on its territory should be seen as a signal by Russia. Neeme Väli commented on for Estonian broadcaster ERR, as reported by European Pravda.
"On the one hand, this message was good for Europeans, who have tended to get complacent with the war. But on the other hand, it is definitely sending a message to Russia as well: That Europe is ready to invest in Ukraine and to continue with its aid," Väli said. He added that European countries have the capability to send their troops to help Ukraine, but the question is whether it makes sense.
The General believes that Ukraine has enough human resources of its own and they expect help from Europe primarily in terms of weapons and equipment. "At present, the issue is not that there is an insufficient number of troops, but rather that equipment and weapons are needed," Väli pointed out.
President Zelensky has called for Balkan allies to assist the country through joint arms production at a two-day summit in Albania. “We are interested in co-production with you and all our partners,” Zelensky told top delegations from Albania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, Croatia and Moldova in his opening remarks at the summit in Tirana.
The Netherlands ordered 9 of the latest DITA self-propelled artillery installations from the Czech Republic for Ukraine. The DITA self-propelled howitzer is a modern fire system capable of hitting targets at a distance of tens of kilometers.
Belgium has allocated 200 million euros ($216 million) to the Czech-led initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine from outside the EU, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Feb. 28.
Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal market commissioner, has said Europe has to move into “war economy mode”, warning that the bloc needed to produce “more, faster and together as Europeans” as part of a new defence industrial strategy.
Breton, the EU’s industrial chief, said in Brussels that European defence must “change the paradigm … This also means the European defence industry must take more risks, with our support by giving them greater visibility”.
Unveiling the strategy, Breton said Europe had to “take greater responsibility for its own security”, building a defence capability that “allows us to act together with our allies, but also autonomously. We must establish the European pillar of Nato”.
“For a credible European defence, we must also have adequate budgetary ambition,” Breton added, potentially including, within the next 12 months, “ad hoc and additional investment in defence, in the order of €100bn”.
More details from Reuters on the von der Leyen’s comments on the EU should consider using frozen Russian asset profits for Ukraine’s military.
Von der Leyen said the threat of war for the EU “may not be imminent, but it is not impossible”. “The risks of war should not be overblown, but they should be prepared for and that starts with the urgent need to rebuild, replenish, modernise member states’ armed forces,” she said.
In her speech, she previewed a new European industrial defence strategy that her commission will present in the coming weeks, saying one of its main aims would be to prioritise joint procurement.
“Europe should strive to develop and manufacture the next generation of battle-winning operational capabilities,” she said. “That means turbo-charging our defence industrial capacity in the next five years.”
Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia Vasyl Miroshnychenko held a presentation for key representatives of the Australian MoD, urging for more aid to Ukraine. He appealed for tanks, Taipan heli's, money and a change in how Australia considers Ukrainian aid.
I’ll just leave this here.
Politico: Commission Vice President Věra Jourová is urging countries to do more to guard against Russian propaganda ahead of the upcoming European election. Jourová is embarking on a “democracy tour” across Europe to push for more concerted action, armed with data on Russian disinformation campaigns and a new EU law to foster media freedom.
In an interview with Playbook Tuesday night, Jourová warned that Russian propaganda had already found willing parrots in most EU countries — pointing to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — and even in some governments, citing Hungary and Slovakia. “The Kremlin directly cannot influence the minds and hearts of European people. They need domestic proxies,” she said.
“We see AfD taking over the Russian narratives and, honestly, this is for me the source of biggest concern, because if Germany turns its back against Ukraine and the … European Union, we will be in big, big trouble.” Jourová said, adding that she will travel to Berlin before the summer as part of her tour.
Russian tropes about Ukraine die hard. Aaron Maté is getting desperate if he’s still pushing these kinds of narratives. That said, there has been a net increase in information campaigns by malign actors across the board.
Mitch McConnell to step down from GOP leadership position in the Senate
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will step down as GOP leader in November, the Kentucky Republican announced Wednesday, marking the end of an era on Capitol Hill and setting up a high-stakes race for his successor.
McConnell has long been a towering figure in Washington, DC, and has made history over the course of his political tenure.
In 2018, McConnell reached a key milestone, surpassing former Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas to become the longest-serving Republican leader in the chamber’s history.
The Pentagon is considering using the last remaining source of funding, approximately $4 billion in presidential drawdown authority, for military aid to support Ukraine. This authority allows the Pentagon to utilize its own stockpiles to provide military equipment to Ukraine. Previously, the Pentagon hesitated to spend these funds without guarantees of reimbursement through Congress, as doing so could affect U.S. military readiness.
Rusland Stefanchuk: An open letter from the Speakers of 23 parliaments and the President of the European Parliament to the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Speaker Johnson.
I, as the initiator of this letter, am grateful to my colleagues for such quick and broad support.
In this open letter, we, the heads of parliaments, ask our American colleague to submit the HR 815 bill on US international assistance, which was passed by the US Senate on 13 February 2024 and provides for an allocation of $60.06 billion to assist Ukraine, to the House of Representatives. The bill has now been transferred to the House of Representatives and, according to the rules of procedure, Speaker M. Johnson has the authority to introduce it for consideration by the Lower House of the US Congress.
We, the speakers of the parliaments, called on Speaker Johnson to facilitate the adoption of a historic decision by the US Congress that will ensure US assistance to foreign countries and provide Ukraine with the necessary funds to continue its struggle.
I very much hope that our voice and our call will be heard in the US Congress.
Ukraine needs help! Ukraine needs weapons! Ukraine must win!
The New York judge who oversaw Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial was sent an envelope containing a white powder on Wednesday, triggering a police investigation.
The envelope addressed to Judge Arthur Engoron, who clashed repeatedly with the former president and his legal team throughout the Manhattan fraud trial, was intercepted by two court officers just before 9.30am. Court staff check the mail as a security measure after the judge was inundated with threats before, during and after Trump’s civil fraud trial, including a bomb threat at his home on the day of closing arguments.
Uncovering Paperwall, the “glocal” network of Chinese propaganda
Meet Paperwall, as Citizen Lab calls the sprawling Chinese influence operation it uncovered in its latest report. It can export narratives in a capillary and targeted manner by disseminating them through fake websites posing as local news outlets. There are at least 123 Paperwall websites in several languages, tied to locations in at least thirty countries across four continents. All differ (slightly) in contents and graphics, but all operate the same way – and, at times, engage in coordinated campaigns to push Chinese disinformation and discredit dissidents abroad.
It all started in Italy. Il Foglio first uncovered six Italian-language Paperwall websites in October 2023, tracing their origin to the Shenzhen building of Chinese tech titan Tencent (which the CIA has linked to China’s Ministry of State Security). A month later, the South Korean National Cyber Security Center identified eighteen Korean equivalents. That piqued the interest of Alberto Fittarelli, a senior researcher at Citizen Lab.
Starting from the Italian websites’ IP addresses, the expert managed to uncover a wider network of 123 domains operating in parallel and employing the same modus operandi.
Programming notes…
Olga and I had a chat with David Frum, senior editor at The Atlantic, about how democracy worldwide is being tested. The full episode is available here.