Feb 3: Andriy Zagorodnyuk- What about Crimea?
Thread published on January 30, 2023
Who is Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk…
Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He served as minister of defense of Ukraine from 2019 to 2020 and now serves as co-founder and chairman of the security think tank Centre for Defence Strategies, which focuses on security studies, policy research, and advocacy in Ukraine.
Prior to his appointment as minister of defense, Zagorodnyuk served as head of the Ministry of Defense’s Reforms Project Office from 2015 to 2018. During this time, he was a key player and major architect of military reform in Ukraine. In July 2019, prior to serving as minister, Zagorodnyuk was appointed advisor to the president of Ukraine for defense matters, as well as a member of the supervisory council of Ukraine’s Ukroboronprom defense company.
Andriy P Zagorodnyuk- What about Crimea?
Link:
Putin’s nuclear blackmail must not prevent the liberation of Crimea
Putin's nuclear threats have led some analysts to argue against attempts to liberate Crimea but bowing down to the Russian dictator's nuclear blackmail would have dire consequences for global security…
Much of the speculation over Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling has centered on Crimea. (But) there are good reasons to believe Putin will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and even better arguments against bowing to his nuclear blackmail.
the recent attempted annexation of four more Ukrainian regions, have dramatically diminished the symbolic significance of the occupied peninsula. Over the past eleven months, Crimea has lost its uniqueness and has instead become one part of a far larger geopolitical confrontation
These illegal annexations were carried out using the same model as the earlier seizure of Crimea, with a military occupation followed by sham referendums conducted at gunpoint.
Despite the humiliation of losing these territories so soon after declaring that they had joined Russia “forever,” Putin chose not to apply the nuclear doctrine. Ukraine’s leaders had successfully called his bluff in front of the watching world
In a war of aggression such as the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, crossing the nuclear threshold would result in potentially devastating costs while offering dubious strategic advantages.
These realities did not prevent Putin from employing nuclear intimidation in September and October 2022, but his menacing statements soon backfired. US officials responded to Putin’s threatening talk with statements promising “catastrophic consequences”
In a rare example of public discord between Moscow and Beijing, China also indicated its disapproval of Putin’s nuclear threats.
Some still feel Crimea is somehow different… This discounts the fact that any military operation to retake Crimea would almost certainly only begin following the complete collapse of Russia’s position in mainland Ukraine.
At stake is not only the future status of Crimea. If Ukraine’s partners react to the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling by withholding support for the liberation of Crimea, it would set a catastrophic precedent.
Nuclear weapons will not be able to fix Putin’s military failures or prevent Russia from losing the war. Instead, crossing the nuclear threshold would likely result in crushing international consequences and possibly even the end of the Putin regime.
