Feb 6: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks on cities, settlements increased by 25 percent last week. According to Klymenko, more than 570 settlements were attacked last week, most of them in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Governor: Russian attack on Donetsk Oblast kills 1, injures 2. A Russian artillery strike on Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, killed a civilian and injured two more on Feb. 4, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Zarina Zabrisky in Kherson: Our close friend’s husband was killed by a Russian shell right now; burned down in his car.
Russia launched an attack against the southern city of Kherson on Monday, killing at least four residents and injuring one, interior minister Ihor Klymenko wrote on Telegram. The artillery fire was reported to have hit Kherson at around noon. Two men, aged 45 and 50, were killed while sitting in a car, Roman Mrochko, the head of the Kherson military administration, was quoted as saying.
Authorities ban foreign humanitarian workers from parts of Kherson Oblast after French citizens killed in Russian attack. Foreign volunteers, NGO workers, and embassy staff are banned from entering parts of Kherson Oblast without permission from the authorities after two French citizens were killed in a Russian strike on Feb. 1, Kherson Oblast Military Administration announced on Feb. 5.
Ukrainian powerlifter Oleksandr Bilokon killed in action. A Ukrainian powerlifter-turned-soldier Oleksandr Bilokon, 32, was killed in action, Ukraine’s Greco-Roman Wrestling Federation President Vadym Kisil reported on Feb. 3.
Tim White: Russian occupiers say 5 people have been killed by shelling in Lysychansk, another 6 were rescued. That said, the exact number of people killed and who was there isn’t clear. Some Russian sources claim a group of Russian officials met at the Adriatica restaurant/cafe to celebrate the birthday of a high-ranking Russian official which was then hit after their location was leaked. He was killed along with 27 other people.
The Russian Federation has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council for Tuesday in connection with the attack in Lysychansk, Russian state media RIA reports.
Combat Situation Update
Zelensky visits front-line troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade near the front-line town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Feb. 4.
Analysts have begun to bring more attention to the possible Russian attack against Kupyansk. Just a reminder that CDS (as re-published in E-Stories) had reported more than a month ago that this was a Russian objective to be carried out before the March 2024 presidential election in Russia, and that the Russians were amassing troops and kit in that direction.
Michael MacKay: In the Kupyans'k direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 8 attacks by the Russian fascist invaders near Syn'kivka (Kharkiv). In the Lyman direction, Ukrainians repelled 15 enemy attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Tors'ke and Hryhorivka (Donetsk) and Bilohorivka (Luhansk).
ISW: Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on February 4.
Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on February 3 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).
Geolocated footage published on February 3 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the H-20 highway east of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near the Avdiivka Coke Plant on Avdiivka’s northwestern outskirts.
Russian forces recently marginally advanced northwest of Marinka. Geolocated footage published on February 4 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced northwest of Marinka (just west of Donetsk City).
Budanov: Ukraine sunk Russian missile corvette on Feb 1 with 6 naval drones. The Russian missile corvette Ukraine reported to have sunk off the coast of occupied Crimea on Feb. 1 was destroyed using six naval drones, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Feb. 4.
Military: Russian sabotage group fought off near border in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian soldiers opened fire on an armed group of ten people on the outskirts of the town Hlukhiv, close to the border with Russia, at 6.20 p.m. on Feb. 3. Mortar launches joined the Ukrainian side, firing at the enemy position.
In Bilhorod a part of the city faced a blackout on Feb 4. Blackouts have been registered in various Russian cities with more frequency in the last few weeks.
This is what a strike in Avdiivka looks like:
Ukrainian drones attacked a Lukoil oil refinery in the Krasnoarmeysky District, Volgograd region in Russia. UP reports the involvement of Ukrainian SBU. It is reported that this refinery is the largest producer of petroleum products in the Southern Federal District of Russia.
Behind the Lines
SBU uncovers alleged Russian spy network in 3 oblasts. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had detained five individuals allegedly spying on the Ukrainian military and passing information to Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), the SBU’s press service reported on Feb. 5.
Guardian: Russia 're-educates' deported Ukrainian children. Veronika Vlasenko, a Ukrainian child who spent 14 months in the Russian school system after the full-scale invasion, said her teachers and fellow students told her she would never be allowed to return home.
Millions of barrels of fuel made from Russian oil are still being imported to the UK, according to research suggesting a "refining loophole." Russian crude is refined in countries like India, and the products are then sold to the UK.
Rai News: Zelensky says leadership reset is necessary. Responding to a question about a rumored dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, President Zelensky said he had a serious reset in mind that was not about a single person, but about the general direction of the country’s leadership.
Reshuffling Ukrainian army leadership is up to Zelensky, Sullivan says. Responding to conflicting reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky is planning to dismiss his army chief, the United States government has told Ukraine it will not get involved in the country’s personnel decisions, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.
Zelensky has submitted a proposal to the Ukrainian parliament to extend martial law and general mobilisation for another 90 days.
The president first declared martial law and general mobilisation on 24 February 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The measure has been repeatedly extended since then.
Lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said this would be the 10th vote of the parliament on martial law since the beginning of the war.
Under martial law, Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, with some exceptions, are not allowed to leave the country as they may be called up for military service.
Zelensky replaces Zaporizhzhia Oblast governor. President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Ivan Fedorov as the new governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the President's Office announced on Feb. 4. Fedorov, the former mayor of the now-occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, will replace Yurii Malashko.
Russia has turned Crimea into a huge prison for political prisoners and hostages from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Moscow began imprisoning Crimean Tatar and other Ukrainians from occupied Crimea back in 2014. Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the peninsula has also become “a huge prison for Ukrainian citizens from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts”.
This was how Olha Skrypnyk, Head of the Crimean Human Rights Group, recently described the present situation where Russia is holding incommunicado at least 100 Ukrainian civilians, in particular those abducted from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts The men and women are simply imprisoned, without any charges having been laid, and generally without even acknowledgement that they are in custody. Skrypnyk said that they have only been able to fully verify the imprisonment of 53 such hostages in accordance with international standards, with their names passed to the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine. The real number could be much higher and impossible to determine when Russia is not admitting to the Ukrainians’ imprisonment, nor laying charges.
Latvian farmers protest Russian, Belarusian food imports. Farmers protested in 16 towns and cities across Latvia to demand an immediate ban on the import of food products from Russia and Belarus, Latvian media outlet Delfi reported on Feb. 5.
Austrian banking group Raiffeisen still has not left the Russian market, after almost 2 years of war while promising to do so. Raiffeissen was on a Ukrainian list of companies sponsoring the war but was removed in exchange for new sanctions against Russia.
Belarusian Hajun Project: From January 27 to February 2, a Belarusian military delegation visited Cuba, signing the documents on bilateral military cooperation.
A number of combat training activities were reported, including training of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the Internal Troops by PMC Wagner. In 2024, the army will receive the Mi-35M helicopters, Tor-M2 SAM systems, T-72BM2 tanks, BTR-70MB1 APCs and other military equipment.
Meanwhile in Russia
An investigation by The Insider has revealed the identities of several Kremlin agents living and working under false identities inside Russia itself. All of those identified thus far are members of GRU Unit 29155 by posing as human rights activists, documentarians, and trade journalists.
Their targets have included venerable NGOs such as the Free Russia Forum, founded by Chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov; the Sakharov Center, named after Soviet physicist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Andrei Sakharov; and Memorial, an organization set up during Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost to chronicle the human rights abuses and high crimes of the Stalinist period.
The first operative whose identity The Insider can reveal is Ivan Zhikharev, purportedly a professional geologist who specializes in drilling through the earth’s crust in search of water. In his spare time, Zhikharev devotes much of his energy to lofty causes: posing as a human rights activist and traveling to the meetings of at least one prominent Russian opposition movement in exile (or, at least, he did before being outed by French intelligence in 2022).
This Zhikharev bears an uncanny resemblance in name and appearance to another man: Ivan Zhigarev, who even shares Zhikharev’s birthday. This is not a coincidence. Instead, it is the logical consequence of the fact that the man posing as Zhikharev is indeed Zhigarev, a trained killer from Unit 29155. [continue]
"We are the only country in the world that can destroy the United States in one hour. Well, theoretically it can and they will not be able to cope with this," Kremlin propagandist and editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT, Margarita Simonyan, said.
Russian state propaganda media once again expressed threats against Poland. TV-presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said that Russia could easily attack Rzeszów airfield in Poland, as it is seen as a base for the supply of Western weapons into Ukraine.
"But first you need to warn and explain everything very clearly. This is what we are doing. There are limits," he adds.
WSJ: Air safety incidents in Russia are becoming more frequent
In 2023, the Russian Federation statistically had 9.9 aviation safety incidents for every 100,000 airplane departures. That's twice as many as in 2022 and 2019.
This was the conclusion reached by analysts at The Wall Street Journal after studying data from Cirium, a company that collects information on air travel. Western sanctions have affected Russia's ability to buy spare parts for airplanes, make software updates and conduct maintenance of airplanes, the journalists say. Although most of the incidents have been without serious injuries or catastrophes, mechanical failures on airplanes in Russia pose a serious safety risk to passengers and increase the workload of pilots, the WSJ said.
Turkey is preparing to demand new gas concessions from Vladimir Putin during a visit to Ankara, which will be the Russian president's first trip to a NATO country since the war in Ukraine began.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to hold talks with Putin on February 12, intends to achieve new discounts on Russian gas, TASS reports , citing a Turkish diplomatic source. According to the agency’s interlocutor, Erdogan intends to link the issue of reducing prices from Gazprom with the “gas hub” project in Turkey, with the help of which the Kremlin hopes to find new buyers for the gas monopoly after the loss of the key European market.
Major VPN services in Russia will be blocked from March 1, head of the Safe Internet League Ekaterina Mizulina said on Monday. According to her, VPNs, which allow you to open sites blocked in Russia, are a “portal to hell.”
Dutch parent company of Russian tech giant Yandex to sell Russian assets. Yandex NV, the Dutch parent company of the Russian tech giant and search engine Yandex, will restructure and sell its Russian businesses in a deal worth $5.2 billion, the company announced in a press release on Feb. 5.
Tucker Carlson is in Moscow as per the latest information available and probably bunking with Steven Segal (just kidding). The official line is that he’s there to ‘interview’ Putin. Investigators and researchers are working to find more information regarding other reasons for his trip. It’s no secret that Carlson has maintained ties to the pro-Kremlin network in Hungary and other states. The trip also comes at a delicate moment in US-Ukrainian relations as the Senate holds up aid to Ukraine.
Union of Russian Journalists is ready to accept Tucker Carlson as a member, as long as he pays the dues & lives up to the standards of Russian journalism - head of the Union. This isn’t a joke.
The United States began to impose sanctions against individual tankers and companies in Turkey and the UAE that transport Russian oil. At the same time, Washington is increasing pressure on countries under whose flag many ships fly that violate the price ceiling requirement for it, Bloomberg writes .
This forces tankers from the shadow fleet to re-register in less popular jurisdictions, the main one of which has recently been Gabon. The number of Gabonese-flagged ships has grown from 20 a year ago to more than 100 at the end of January, according to Windward AI, which collects shipping information.
Head of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben Cardin, proposed that the White House impose sanctions against Hungary and its Prime Minister Orban for undermining the unity of the EU and NATO.
In particular, Cardin condemned Orban's attempts to delay the discussion of EU financial assistance for Ukraine in the amount of 50 billion euros and protests against Sweden's accession to NATO.
"Orban has once again proven himself to be the least reliable member of NATO, in addition to unduly delaying the European Union's efforts to provide needed economic assistance to Ukraine to date," Cardin said.
Allied Support
The EU has prepared a full draft of the Ukraine Facility program, within the framework of which €50 billion will be provided to Ukraine. The funds are split in €39 for direct budget support, €8 billion technical support and €3 billion interest cover.
US Senate unveils border deal that includes $60 billion in Ukraine aid. The bill totals $118.2 billion, with $60 billion allocated to support Ukraine's security needs. The Senate is expected to hold a vote on the bill no later than Feb. 7.
Me: there’s a problem with this. The chaos that has ensued over the past few weeks in the U.S. regarding aid to Ukraine shows that aid to Ukraine from the U.S. may be subject to political blackmail. The same could be said for Orban’s holding up EU aid to Ukraine. A small portion of an overall effort is dictating terms pertaining to national security issues.
David Frum interviewed by Fareed Zakaria: US aid to Ukraine is drying up because congressional Republicans have tied it to immigration and border policy.
During evening on Feb 4, The White House rejected the bill of the House of Representatives on the aid to Israel without additional money to Ukraine. "Just as legislative text is imminent, the House Republicans come up with their latest cynical political maneuver," it adds.
Dutch ministry prepares six more F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine. “The Netherlands Ministry of Defence is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to Ukraine,” Kajsa Ollongren, the Dutch defence minister, has announced.
Canada-Ukraine security agreement could be finalized in weeks, Canadian FM says. "I'm here to push to get it to the finish line, I think we can conclude it in the coming weeks," Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said.
Canadian Conservatives urge the government to donate surplus CRV7 air-to-ground missiles to Ukraine instead of decommissioning them. The CRV7 is a 70-mm Canadian-developed missile intended to strike ground targets. The DND is considering to donate them.
I have every single album the Police and Sting have recorded. I love him: he gets a spot in E-Stories.
"Poland allocated a loan for the joint production of weapons between Ukraine and Poland. The Ukrainian-Polish relations now have a completely different tone," Deputy Head of the Office of the President Ihor Zhovkva said. "Components of Polish weapons are already used in Ukraine, we are talking about joint mass production."
FT: Belgium proposed a plan to the G7, suggesting the issuance of debt for Ukraine's reconstruction, using frozen Russian assets as collateral. If Russia refuses to repay, the plan allows allies to tap into the blocked Russian assets, bypassing legal hurdles.
Not good enough: The EU upcoming sanctions package on Russia won't include new import bans, aiming for swift approval. The proposal won't target major companies but will list hundreds of entities and individuals. Unanimous member state approval is required.
Kazakh government resigns, President Tokayev appoints new PM. Along with the prime minister, the entire government resigned. Sklyar is the acting prime minister. He is an ethnic Russian from northern Kazakhstan, which does not bode well for the Almaty. It is part of the ongoing battle between the old president’s people and Tokayev trying to build his own loyal base amongst the government officials.
Hungary’s ruling party has boycotted a parliamentary session on Sweden’s Nato membership, postponing a vote by the last alliance member to approve the expansion of the defensive alliance, AFP reports.
US ambassador David Pressman was present in the viewing gallery during Monday’s parliamentary session along with envoys from 14 other Nato countries, a US embassy spokesperson told AFP.
But the sitting was adjourned after only 51 out of 199 MPs voted on the agenda as almost all members of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP ruling coalition – except for presiding deputy speaker Sandor Lezsak – stayed away.
Orbán is delaying the vote due to his “personal vanity”, Agnes Vadai from the biggest opposition party told AFP.
This is fun…
