Feb 7: Buonasera Mag
Day 348: Donbas Gazprom Budanov Kharkiv Kaluga RUeco Moldova Maliuk tribunal AUS-POL-US RUspy earthquake TikTok Ddosia-A&P-HenryLevi EUvsDisinfo Michta Weiss Vogel Babij Stefanovic Fink Cadwalldr
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian Conflict Monitor: “According to the Ukrainian General Staff data, the number of Russian artillery strikes hovered around 90 last week. However, the latter half of the week saw a decline. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary reduction or a beginning of a new trend; The Russian forces made incremental gains in Soledar, and minimal gains in Bakhmut.”
There were no frontline changes in the Kharkiv Oblasts. Both sides limited their activity to positional battles. Ukrainians reportedly increased the readiness of their territorial defence battalions deployed near the frontline in the oblast.
The demise of Wagner PMC combat potential could explain a slower tempo of Russian advances in the Soledar-Bakhmut area. Russian airborne formations reportedly stepped in, so the attackers’ operations will likely be more thought through.
Russian forces are attempting to tie down Ukrainian forces with fighting in the eastern Donbas region, Ukraine has said. Moscow is reportedly assembling additional troops there for an expected offensive in the coming weeks, perhaps targeting the Luhansk region. “The battles for the region are heating up,” said Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of Donetsk. In Luhansk, fellow governor Serhiy Haidai said shelling there had subsided because “the Russians have been saving ammunition for a large-scale offensive”.
The western area of the Luhansk region is likely to be the focus of any new Russian offensive, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, who has been tipped to take over the Ministry of Defence, has said. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said that offensive would most likely be launched by “proper mechanised brigades” rather than the ill-trained reservists and Wagner mercenaries who have been suffering heavy casualties in recent battles.
Kharkiv Oblast's hospital catches fire following Russian shelling. Ukraine's Health Ministry reported on Feb. 6 that a hospital is on fire in the town of Vovchansk, located 75 kilometres northeast of Kharkiv, following Russian shelling.
General Staff: Russian troops regroup, conduct offensives in 5 areas. Russia's main efforts are focused on conducting offensives near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.
Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has warned that western arms supplies to Ukraine are effectively “dragging” Nato into the conflict and that could lead to an “unpredictable level of escalation”.
A drone has exploded outside the Russian city of Kaluga, regional Governor Vladislav Shapsha said on February 6, adding that no-one was injured in the blast. "The drone exploded in the air at an altitude of 50 meters in the forest near the city at five o'clock in the morning," he wrote on Telegram. Kaluga is about 150 kilometers southwest of Moscow and 260 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Slumping energy revenues and soaring expenditures pushed Russia's federal budget to a deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.78 billion) in January amid Western sanctions and the cost of the war in Ukraine. The Finance Ministry said on February 6 that oil and gas revenues were 46.4 percent lower in January than in the same month last year. Overall revenue for the month was down 35.1 percent, while spending was 58.7 percent higher. The ministry cited lower prices for Russian oil and lower volumes of natural gas exports as the primary reasons.
UK intelligence: Russia aims to Russify illegally annexed regions via sham elections in September. Russia plans to hold sham regional “elections” in illegally “annexed” occupied territories of Ukraine on Sept. 10, 2023, according to Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council, the Russian parliament's upper house.
DW: Russia steps up threats against Moldova. Russia's foreign minister Lavrov has warned that Moldova could meet the same fate as Ukraine. He says that the West is stirring up anti-Russian sentiment.
Parliament recognizes Wagner as international criminal organization. Ukraine’s parliament on Feb. 6 recognized Russian mercenary group Wagner as an international criminal organization and called on foreign governments to do the same.
Parliament exempts drones, other equipment from VAT, customs duties. The Ukrainian parliament has adopted two bills abolishing VAT and customs duties on the import of drones, thermal imagers, collimators, night vision devices, and walkie-talkies, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, deputy head of the parliamentary committee on tax and customs policy, reported on Feb. 6.
Zelensky nominates Vasyl Maliuk as head of SBU. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 6 sent an official request to Ukraine’s parliament to appoint Vasyl Maliuk at the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, has warned the world is walking into a “wider war” over Ukraine during a speech presenting his 2023 priorities. Addressing the UN general assembly just weeks before the first anniversary of Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, Guterres described the war as “inflicting untold suffering on the Ukrainian people, with profound global implications”.
The head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, will not be meeting with President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow this week, the Kremlin has said.
Charles Michel officially invites Zelensky to European Council summit. European Council President Charles Michel has invited President Volodymyr Zelensky “to participate in person in a future summit of the European Council,” European Council spokesperson Barend Leyts said via Twitter on Feb. 6.
Austria is set to issue visas to sanctioned Russian MPs to attend an upcoming OSCE summit on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, threatening to tip off a diplomatic firestorm within the organization.
Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, has proposed his country should provide some 75 billion Norwegian crowns (£6.1 bn) in aid to Ukraine over five years. Half of the aid in 2023 will fund Kyiv’s military requirements while the rest will go to humanitarian needs, although this split could change in coming years, he said.
Polish official wants decision on fighter jets for Ukraine to be made at Munich conference. Critics argue that allies’ reluctance to supply F-16 fighters and long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine will prevent Kyiv from launching a major counteroffensive and liberating the rest of Ukrainian territory.
Biden expected to visit Poland to mark one year of Russia's war against Ukraine. United States President Joe Biden is expected to travel to Poland to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, three people familiar with the matter told NBC News.
US prepares 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum. The U.S. is planning a 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum to be announced “as soon as this week,” Bloomberg reported on Feb. 6, citing unnamed sources privy to the information.
Germany’s plan to quickly assemble two battalions of Leopard 2 tanks from European allies and send them to Ukraine is progressing slower than expected, as several states have yet to decide whether they can spare vehicles from their own stocks. For now Germany, Poland and Portugal have committed Leopard tanks.
Defense companies in Switzerland are currently struggling to receive new contracts. Every company in that industry sector reports that they lost 1 to 2 deals because of the “neutrality” claim. The potential buyers see their interests violated.
Switzerland could lift ban of exports of Swiss weapons to war zones. Switzerland could end a ban on exports of Swiss weapons to war zones as a shift in public and political opinion puts pressure on the government to end a centuries-long tradition of being a neutral state, Reuters reported.
Reuters: A group of pro-Russian activists in Germany donated funds to a Russian army division fighting in Ukraine, and the money was used to purchase walkie-talkie radios, headphones and telephones, according to an officer in the division and messages from the group's organisers seen by Reuters. The couple at the centre of the group, Elena Kolbasnikova and Max Schlund, handed the sum of 500 euros ($540) to the officer in person late last year. Their messages show they knew the money paid for telecommunications equipment – despite European Union sanctions which restrict the supply of such gear to Russia's military.
Austria detains a Greek believed to be a Russian spy. His father worked for Russian General Staff. A raid of his home revealed listening device trackers, hidden cameras, a hazmat suit & 10 million + files on multiple phones, laptops & tablets.
In the past year, about 200,000 Russians have fled their homeland for Serbia. The AP reports that the Slavic country is Moscow’s closest European ally, with historic, religious and cultural ties that are bolstered by Kremlin political influence campaigns. Russia backs Serbia’s claim over its former province of Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008 with western support. And Serbia has refused to impose sanctions on Moscow over the invasion.
Rusland Trad: Terrible news from Turkey and Syria. The footage is heartbreaking; hundreds are killed. Areas of Syria hit by the earthquake are subject to regular attacks by Russia and Assad, with many living in already wrecked buildings. Now, this. A tragedy.
Reuters: More than 1300 people were killed and thousands injured when a major earthquake of magnitude 7.8 struck central Turkey and northwest Syria, collapsing buildings and triggering searches for survivors in the rubble. The quake, which hit in the early darkness of a winter morning, was also felt in Cyprus and Lebanon.
UK: people should delete TikTok from their phones because the social media platform is part of China’s efforts to build a “tech totalitarian state”, a senior MP has said as reported in The Telegraph.
Reuters: Health workers in Britain began their largest strike, as tens of thousands of nurses and ambulance workers walk out in an escalating pay dispute, putting further strain on the state-run National Health Service. Nurses and ambulance workers have been striking separately on and off since late last year but today's walkout involving both, largely in England, is the biggest in the 75-year history of the NHS.
Americans for Prosperity, a political advocacy group backed by Charles Koch is preparing to get involved in the 2024 election, saying it wanted to back a candidate who could "lead the country forward". The group, which has promoted lower taxes, less regulation and free trade, reiterated its presence in key states.
Nathalie Vogel discusses German policy towards Ukraine- Institute of World Politics
Former IWP Kosciuszko Chair Fellow Nathalie Vogel discussed the change of course towards Ukraine by the administration of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the European Values Podcast, a project of the European Values Center for Security Policy.
Listen to the podcast with Nathalie Vogel.
Larissa Babij, A Kind of Refugee- 05.02.2023
The need for translation these days is overwhelming: international instructors training members of the UAF before deployment; a documentary theater script based on personal diaries of the first months after russia’s full-scale invasion; testimony of war crimes committed by russian forces over the past year; correspondence between foreign donors and Ukrainian charitable foundations; not to mention screenplays, a curator’s handbook, interviews with participants of the 2013-2014 Maidan revolution, a Ukrainian feminist scholar’s book. I turn down anything that is not directly related to the war.
And then there are things that I read in Ukrainian that I want to share with people who speak English: fresh thought, reflections on Soviet culture that shed light on what Ukrainians are giving their lives to defeat, reports from the front lines written by soldiers who until recently were full-time writers, historians, museum workers, booksellers…
AFP, Russian Patriarch Kirill Spied in Switzerland for KGB in 70s – The Moscow Times
The Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, a strong supporter of President Vladimir Putin, worked for Soviet intelligence while living in Switzerland in the 1970s, Swiss newspapers reported, citing declassified archives.
According to the Sonntagszeitung and Le Matin Dimanche weeklies, the Swiss police file on the man who today serves as the spiritual head of the Russian Orthodox Church "confirms that 'Monsignor Kirill,' as he is referred to in this document, worked for the KGB." The two papers said they had gained access to the file in the Swiss national archives.
Under the code name "Mikhailov," Kirill's mission was to influence the council, already infiltrated by the KGB, the papers said.
Carole Cadwalldr, Dear Carol Vorderman: I salute your courage, but the wolves are gathering- The Observer
The thing is that trolls are unpleasant, but you’re a middle-aged woman on TV so I don’t have to tell you that. But you’ve called out the prime minister, Rishi Sunak. You’ve been asking questions about whether he’s profited from a multimillion contract he awarded Moderna, and this is where it gets dangerous. Sunak is less of a mafia boss than the capo di tutti capi, Boris Johnson, but he’ll still have friends and gatekeepers. There’s a whole media ecosystem that feeds on favours and attacking you will be one way of currying them.
Watch out, also, for your colleagues. The most damaging attacks I had weren’t from anonymous internet trolls. Leftie tech bros were – still are – some of my biggest haters, to say nothing of the late-night tweets of senior BBC presenters. Misogyny is the last acceptable hate crime and saying creepy things about my perceived lack of sexual attractiveness went entirely unchecked. Here’s looking at you, Andrew Neil.
I tried to tell that story over the last six years and didn’t quite withstand the witch burning that ensued. But there’s a new Carol in town and you’ve given us all hope. Stand firm. Fuck the haters. You’re a role model for every over-50-year-old woman in Britain and everyone else, too.
Programming note…Silicon Curtain Podcast by Jonathan Fink
From 2007-08 Putin came to believe that the West was in decline, degenerate and weak. It’s at that moment he pronounced a more assertive Russia, and started to act accordingly on the world stage, and in relations to neighbouring countries, with the invasion of Georgia in 2008, and Crimea in 2014. NATO provocation is one excuse given for Russian aggression and is prominent in domestic Russian propaganda. But it’s unlikely he saw NATO as a threat and must have known they had neither the intent nor capability to directly threaten Russian territory. Afterall, why would they when Europe’s economy depended on Russian gas and oil? Rather he may have seen NATO as an irritating barrier to his new imperial ambitions to unite the Russian speaking world, and former colonial territories.