Feb 8: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian air defenses downed 44 of the 64 Russian missiles and drones launched early on Feb. 7, the Air Force reported. The intercepted weaponry included 29 missiles and 15 drones.
Russia launches large-scale missile, drone attack against Ukraine. Russia launched another large-scale attack against Ukrainian cities early in the morning on Feb. 7. Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts were among those targeted, according to the latest information. As per the writing of this post, 3 people have been killed and 12 injured.
Explosions were also reported in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Khmelnytskyi regions. An industrial facility in Lviv was hit.
Iryna Matviyishin: Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine. A Russian cruise missile fell onto a street. Around 20 residential buildings were damaged or destroyed in this Russian missile and drone attack. Reports of casualties: one person has died.
The morning attack by Russia on Ukraine which caused damage to civilian and industrial infrastructure, residential buildings and wounded and killed Ukrainian citizens, cost up to $423 million.
Zarina Zabrisky: A family in a dark house. All that is left of the husband and father is a charred ring. Russia killed him and his childhood friend. And two more people, in a few hours. All around: ruins. Destruction. Artillery fire as I type.
Combat Situation Update
Official: Situation in Avdiivka becomes 'critical in some places.'The situation around Avdiivka, a front-line town in Donetsk Oblast, is deteriorating, becoming critical in some areas, said Vitalii Barabash, the head of the city's military administration, on Feb. 6.
The Russian invaders made 3 unsuccessful attempts to storm Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region. The aggressors do not give up attempts to dislodge the defenders from bridgeheads.
Defense Ministry: Ukrainian special forces capture Russian equipment from Black Sea drilling platform. Ukraine's Special Operations Forces conducted an operation on a Russian-occupied drilling platform off the coast of Crimea, the Defense Ministry reported on Feb. 6.
A big explosions happened near the Russian city of Izhevsk. Close to Izhevsk is the Votkinsk Machine-Building plant that produces both oil and gas, machine tools and sophisticated military equipment of the type that are fired against Ukraine. It is unknown what is on fire exactly but the fire can be seen from afar. Kremlin-aligned media outlet TASS reported that it has allegedly learned from the dispatch service that the explosion occurred "during scheduled rocket engine tests".
Defense Intelligence of Ukraine: Moscow, through travel agencies in Syria, is reportedly recruiting mercenaries for the war against Ukraine — the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
The first group of about 1,000 mercenaries is undergoing training near the city of Aleppo and the Kuweires airfield. The focus is on fighting in the city. After completing the training, the Syrian mercenaries are taken to the Khmeimim Air Base and from there to the territory of the Russian Federation.
The Syrians are first promised jobs as security guards at oil refineries in Yakutia, and then offered "better-paying jobs" in Buryatia. In the city of Ulan-Ude, the mercenaries with passports are mobilized to the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 46108) for further participation in the fighting in Ukraine.
Recruitment of Syrians for the war indicates the deterioration of the moral and psychological state of the Russian invading forces due to large-scale losses and the need to replenish them for further meat assaults.
Behind the Lines
IAEA chief visits Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to assess safety. Director General of the UN’s nuclear watchdog Rafael Grossi visited the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s south on Feb. 7 to check the status of the plant’s cooling systems and assess whether it can operate with a reduced staff.
Zelensky: Ukrainian military to create separate branch dedicated to drones. The Unmanned Systems Forces will reportedly focus specifically on improving Ukraine's work with drones, creating special drone-specific units, ramping up training, systemizing their use, increasing production, and pushing innovation.
Head of Russian Orthodox church in Estonia confirms he is leaving country after expulsion order. Estonian authorities have accused Metropolitan Yevgeniy of public statements and actions in support of Russian aggression.
I wish I could be as enthusiastic as Browder, and I don’t have all the facts at hand that he may have. I still get the sensation that the Chinese will find another vector or vehicle to continue, perhaps not through China, but another state. We’ve learned that the Russians funnel goods and cash through Kazakhstan and other states. You would need an army of financial investigators in the West to keep up with how the Russians and other totalitarian states have used the international financial system to their benefit.
Polish and Nato warplanes had scrambled because “intensive long-range aviation activity of the Russian Federation is being observed, related to missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine”, Poland’s military said. Me: this happens quite often, actually.
Media: Finland to extend border closure with Russia. A new decision on the status of the border is expected on Feb. 8, but sources in the government told Ilta Sanomat that the situation remains the same and that the government is looking for a more sustainable solution beyond simply temporarily extending the closure again.
Latvia has resumed mandatory conscription to avert risks of Russia's invasion of Europe - Latvian Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš “We need to be in such a state of preparedness that Russian generals and the Russian political classes clearly see that the direction of Europe is a no-go,” he said.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that the goals of what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine remain unchanged. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the subject after being asked about the upcoming two-year anniversary of the date when Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine.
Christoph Heusgen, who is chairing this year’s Munich Security Conference, said Russian government officials have not been invited, as they did not seem open to meaningful dialogue. Nicknamed the “Davos for defence”, the event will take place 16-18 February, days before the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian media: Output of Russian oil refineries drops by 4% following drone attacks. Russian oil refineries reduced refining operations by 4% in January 2024 compared to the same period the year before, partly due to "increased drone attacks," the Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant reported on Feb. 6.
SAP, a German software developer and consulting services provider, has warned that customers in Russia will no longer be able to access its cloud services beginning 20 March, Russian RBC reported. SAP is the world's largest provider of business software solutions, such as ERP, CRM, and SCM.
SAP services were used by approximately 1,500 large customers in Russia, including state and financial organisations, as well as businesses in trade, logistics and industry. Among them are Russian Railways, Aeroflot, Sberbank, VTB, Alfa Bank, X5 Group, M.Video-Eldorado, Cherkizovo and almost all oil and gas, chemical and metallurgical companies.
Boris Nadezhdin’s campaign gets Russian election authorities to accept ‘up to several dozen’ signatures previously declared invalid due to typos. Nadezhdin asks authorities for three more days to review claims of paperwork errors, Russia’s election commission gives him one extra day.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has attracted global attention by nationalizing assets owned by foreign enterprises like the French food-products corporation Danone and the Danish brewer Carlsberg. In these past two years (with far less fanfare or public uproar), the Prosecutor General has also seized the privately owned assets of Russian business owners. Meduza explains how officials are rewriting the country’s property rules by rolling back post-Soviet privatizations, twisting the law to treat Russian entrepreneurs as foreigners, and using corruption charges to meet quotas and win bribes.
Media: Russian agents pose as activists, filmmakers to reportedly spy on domestic civil society organizations. The alleged agents, who The Insider said posed as a human rights activist, a documentary filmmaker, and a journalist, are allegedly associated with the GRU unit 29155, best known for reportedly being responsible for the 2011 Novichok poisoning of Russian dissident Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the U.K.
Switzerland has asked China to attend the Global Peace Summit at the level of leaders, stepping up pressure on Beijing to play a role in ending hostilities nearly two years after Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Allied Support
A new meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine (Ramstein) is scheduled for February 14. It will take place at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Von der Leyen: EU aims to start payments of $54 billion Ukraine Facility fund in March. "Last night’s political agreement on the 50 billion euro ($54 billion) Ukraine Facility is a major step forward," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Feb. 6.
Me: this is important. In our next Kremlin File interview with Maria Avdeeva, she explains that these funds are necessary to keep Ukraine’s public sector afloat. The U.S. was providing the lion’s share of military kit, while the EU provides much needed financial assistance since so much of Ukraine’s industrial base has been destroyed by the Russians and cannot generate enough income via taxes for the state.
EU, IFC to mobilize over $530 million for Ukraine's private sector recovery. This is part of the IFC's Better Futures Program that aims to mobilize over 500 million euros ($537 million) across sectors, including infrastructure, goods production, decarbonization, and job preservation.
The EU delivered a DOK-ING MV-10 demining system to the State Service of Special Transport of Ukraine. This is the latest delivery in the framework of the €25 million package for humanitarian demining in Ukraine announced at the EU-Ukraine Summit '23.
High Representative of the EU for foreign policy and security policy, Josep Borrell, gave a speech at the Verkhovna Rada in Ukraine. Earlier that morning, Borrell had to go to a bomb shelter due to the Russian attacks on Kyiv among other cities. "This is the daily reality of the brave Ukrainian people, since Russia launched its illegal aggression," he added.
Bloomberg: G7 countries seek to limit Russia's ability to use a huge shadow fleet of tankers to deliver oil. Russia, with the help of mystery traders and shipping companies, assembled a hundreds-strong fleet of tankers to ship its oil and bypass sanctions.
President Zelensky will visit Germany next week. According to Tagesspiegel, Zelenskyi is planning his visit during the Munich Security Conference, which will be held from February 16 to 18. It will be his second visit to the country since the beginning of the war.
White House threatens to veto standalone Israel aid bill proposed by Republicans. "The Administration strongly encourages both chambers of the Congress to reject this political ploy and instead quickly send the bipartisan Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act to the President's desk," the U.S. Office of Management and Budget said in a statement.
The Hill: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to separate the bipartisan border security deal from the emergency defense spending bill for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. A procedural vote on the Ukraine and Israel funding package, including border security reforms, is expected to face Republican blockage. Schumer's Plan B involves a motion to reconsider, forcing a second vote on the funding package without border reforms, likely gaining enough Republican support. The move aims to avoid an embarrassing double blockage of the defense supplemental.
Lankford: I had a popular commentator that told me flat out, if you try to move a bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year, I will do whatever I can to destroy you. Because I do not want you to solve this during the presidential election.
USCENTCOM Conducts Strike Killing Kata’ib Hezbollah Senior Leader
At 9:30 p.m. February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region. There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people. We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety.
News Alert: Netanyahu rejects ceasefire offer. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected an offer from Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza, insisting that Israel's goal of "complete victory" is within reach. The Israeli leader described Hamas' demands as "crazy," but did not rule out further negotiations.
U.S. Department of Defense: China is closely monitoring the U.S. situation regarding the aid vote for Ukraine, and any further delays may increase Beijing's readiness for aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, warns the Pentagon's deputy representative, Sabrina Singh.
Stressing the importance of supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, Singh emphasizes that failure to do so could embolden China to take more provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific. The consequences of not supporting Ukraine may lead to a direct conflict with Russia, especially if Putin targets a NATO ally.
U.S. Department of State Official Readout on the elections in Senegal
The United States is deeply concerned by actions taken to delay Senegal’s February 25 presidential election, which run contrary to Senegal’s strong democratic tradition. We are particularly alarmed by reports of security forces removing by force parliamentarians who opposed a bill to delay the election, resulting in a National Assembly vote that cannot be considered legitimate given the conditions under which it took place. The United States urges the Government of Senegal to move forward with its presidential election in accordance with the Constitution and electoral laws. We also call on the Senegalese government to restore full Internet access immediately and to ensure that freedoms of peaceful assembly and expression, including for members of the press, are fully respected. The United States will remain engaged with all parties and regional partners in the days ahead.
Revealed: suspected Russian spy ‘worked for MI6’ and Foreign Office
An alleged Russian spy lied to gain asylum in the UK before he worked for the Foreign Office, accessed British military and intelligence secrets and met with the future King, The Times has learnt.
The refugee from Afghanistan, who is accused of spying for Russia’s military intelligence agency, also worked for GCHQ and MI6, a court heard.
He worked with two prime ministers and met Prince Charles and Prince William on visits to Afghanistan while working for the British government. He ultimately obtained both Russian and British citizenship.
The alleged spy was stripped of his British citizenship in 2019 after MI5, the security service, believed he was an agent for the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency accused of orchestrating the nerve agent attack in Salisbury a year earlier. The government has argued that he is a risk to national security if let back into the UK.
The alleged spy, who can only be identified as C2, denies being an agent or that he is a risk to national security but revealed that MI5 has accused him of being groomed as a Russian asset since the age of five. He is appealing against the government’s decision to strip him of his British citizenship in a hearing before the Special Immigration Appeals Commission (SIAC).
C2 entered the UK in 2000 and was given asylum after claiming he was fleeing the Taliban and had come directly from Afghanistan, even though he lived for six years in Russia.
He claims he went on to work for GCHQ, MI6, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office and more. SIAC has been told that he had access to “top secret” documents while working for the British government in Britain and Afghanistan.
The revelations are embarrassing for the British government, considering the access given to the alleged spy as the threat from Russia was steadily growing.
In 2006, not long after C2 said he was employed by GCHQ, the British government accused Russia of poisoning the dissident Alexander Litvinenko with polonium in London. Litvinenko died weeks later and the UK government expelled Russian intelligence officers in response.
In recent years senior security officials have repeatedly warned of the campaign of influence and spying that has been exerted by Russia. Later this year five people, accused of being part of a Russian spy ring that carried out surveillance in the UK, will face trial at the Old Bailey.
The findings also follow long-running security concerns over a lack of rigour and scrutiny in the asylum system, after a series of applicants lied about or exaggerated their circumstances to be able to stay in Britain. [continue]
Programming notes…
