Feb 9: Buonasera Mag
Day 350: UASitRep MH17 Luhansk RUSitRep SpaceX Turkey ZelenskyInUK-FR-EU tanks&jets NATO Saakashvili China-A&Ps-Rutte Gvaramia Lautman Temple LucasE Toth.-Czifra KyivIndependent
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 8 February 2023 regarding the Russian invasion: "In the settlements of Hromivka, Chaplynka, Mala Kapdashynka, Zelene, Chulakivka and Novovolodymyrivka in Kherson region, the Russian occupying forces conduct daily searches, atrocities and robberies of local residents. Home appliances, phones and all valuables are stolen."
Russia regains initiative, begins next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has significantly increased over the past week.
ISW: Russia rushes to launch offensive in Donbas without sufficient combat power. Russian forces are unlikely to build up the combat power to impact the war's outcome, while the Russian military command continues to order unrealistic and wide advances, according to the ISW.
Reuters: SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink Internet for drones. Elon Musk's SpaceX has put measures in place to prevent Ukraine's Armed Forces from using the company's Starlink satellite internet service for controlling drones, SpaceX's president said on Feb. 8, Reuters reports.
European ombudsman institute accused of sending Ukrainian children from Austria to Russia. Ukraine's human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that Josef Ziegele, the European Ombudsman Institute's general secretary, was behind the alleged deportation, which he called a violation of Articles 49 and 50 of the Geneva Convention and a possible act of genocide under Article 2.
Russia's state censor to track Putin memes with help of AI. Russia's federal agency for monitoring and censoring communications, Roskomnadzor, is planning to use AI to try to track online posts, comments and memes critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a report by Russian investigative outlet iStories.
Zelensky makes surprise visit to London, meets Sunak. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 8 landed in London and posted a photo of himself with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the airport. During the visit, Zelensky addressed the British parliament. Later in the day, Zelensky traveled to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron awards Zelensky with Legion of Honor during Paris visit. "Honor to Ukraine and its people. Honor to you, dear Volodymyr, for your courage and devotion," Macron wrote on Twitter with a video of Zelensky receiving the award.
France 24: Macron says Ukraine ‘can count on France to win this war.’ French President Emmanuel Macron on Feb. 8 pledged that France would firmly stand by Ukraine as he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Minister: Germany will give Ukraine more missiles, Gepard vehicles this month. Germany will supply Ukraine with more guided missiles, five Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and five Pioneer Panzer 2A1 Dachs combat support vehicles by the end of February, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during a visit to Kyiv, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Feb. 7.
The UK is “accelerating” the delivery of equipment to Ukraine to “ensure that it reaches [Ukraine’s] frontline in coming days and weeks, not months or years”, Sunak says. The Ukrainian crews who arrived in the UK last week will be using Challenger 2 main battle tanks to defend Ukraine next month, he says. Sunak says he is pleased that they have agreed to expand the training programme that has trained 10,000 troops in the last six months alone.
Summit planned for countries that will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. A "tank summit" next week will bring together representatives of Germany, Poland, and Ukraine to discuss the provision of Western-made tanks to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced.
Zelensky asks UK for fighter jets: 'Give us wings to protect freedom.' Zelensky, who is visiting London, presented the helmet of a Ukrainian pilot to the parliament's speaker as a metaphor for Ukraine’s pleas for Western fighter jets. “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it,” the helmet inscription reads.
Politico: UK may send fighter jets to Ukraine over 'long- term' after Zelenskyy plea. Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson says British PM has tasked defense secretary ‘with investigating what jets we might be able to give — but to be clear this is a long-term solution.’
President Zelensky at the EU parliament today: he thanks the member of parliament for their “principled and energetic approach, two qualities we have seen unchanged during this struggle for Europe”, Zelenskiy says. He celebrates European standards of life, the rule of law, open societies and the values of European people.
This is our Europe, these are our rules, this is our way of life. And for Ukraine it’s a way home.
The value of lives in Russia has been destroyed, only those in the Kremlin have value, he says. Russia views its people as vessels for carrying weapons, he says. The Russian regime hates any social justice and diversity, they invest in xenophobia, they are trying to make the inhumane realities of the 1930s and 1940s a reality today, Zelensky adds.
Only our victory will guarantee our European values, Zelenskiy says. He thanks the support give to Ukrainians by the people of towns and cities across Europe in this “historic battle”.
UK to train Ukrainian pilots, marines and supply longer-range weapons to Kyiv. The statement indicates that the West may eventually supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. However, so far Western countries have refused to deliver F-16s to Ukraine. The U.S. has also refused to supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers.
The Russian embassy to Britain has warned the UK against sending fighter jets to Ukraine, after Downing Street confirmed Sunak had asked his defence secretary to investigate what jets London could potentially give to Kyiv, Russian state media is reporting. Such a move would have “military and political consequences for the European continent and the entire world”, the embassy said, according to state-run Tass news agency.
The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said there was no sign of Russia preparing for peace. “On the contrary, Moscow is preparing for new military offensives,” he said during a joint press conference with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken.
Poland and the Baltic states have urged the EU to work on seizing frozen Russian state assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine “as soon as possible”, raising pressure to act on a legally-fraught question. Ahead of a two-day EU summit that will discuss the Russian invasion, the leaders of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia said “in order to be credible on this matter vis-à-vis Ukraine” the bloc had to go beyond reiterating previous commitments and “accelerate our work in the Council right now”.
Portugal confirms it will provide 3 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa made the announcement on Feb. 8, following his talks with Germany to get parts needed to repair some of Portugal's Leopard 2 tanks, according to Reuters.
The UK does not want Russia to compete at the 2024 Paris Olympics and has been “very clear” with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) on the issue, Downing Street has said.
Asked if he will clear the reputation of London as a city still laundering Russian money, Rishi Sunak says as chancellor he put in place “the most extensive and forward-leaning” sanctions package against Russia. The UK has announced fresh sanctions today that will continue to “demonstrate very clearly that Russia’s aggression is unacceptable, and we will punish them in every way which we can”, Sunak says.
NYT: China’s spy balloons are part of an effort to assess the military capabilities of countries around the world, U.S. officials say. The balloons have some advantages over the satellites that orbit the earth in regular patterns. They fly closer to earth and can evade radar.
There are strong indications that Putin himself was directly involved in the decision to fire a Buk missile at flight MH17 on July 17, 2014. But prosecution is not possible because Putin enjoys immunity as head of state. Public prosecutor, Van Boetzelaer, did not rule out prosecution of Putin in the future. As soon as he is no longer head of state, he loses his immunity.
Maggie Temple, ‘I Will Not Go Back’: Anti-War Russians Stuck in EU Asylum Limbo- The Moscow Times
Melania has been waiting 10 months for an answer to her request for political asylum that she filed after fleeing to Lithuania in the weeks after her home country, Russia, launched its invasion of Ukraine.
Once optimistic, anti-war Russians like Melania are increasingly downbeat about their prospects of finding long-term refuge in the European Union.
“I have no idea if they will give me asylum,” said the 21-year-old sales manager. “I entered the country illegally through Belarus, which will either act in my favor or against it.”
The number of EU asylum applications filed by Russian citizens almost tripled last year as hundreds of thousands of Russians opposed to the war in Ukraine or seeking to avoid mobilization went abroad.
Edward Lucas: From Oliver Bullough’s Newsletter- Oligarchy
Brilliant by @OliverBullough in his latest newsletter on the new Register of Overseas Entities,
1. For decades, oligarchs and others bought U.K. properties via used anonymous offshore companies to hide their identities.
2. David Cameron, when he was prime minister, promised to do something about this as part of an anti-corruption drive.
3. Cameron lost the Brexit referendum, and no one else in power was interested in driving out oligarchs, so they all accidentally on purpose kind of forgot all about it.
4. Russia attacked Ukraine last February and the British government wanted to do something about oligarchs.
5. This was something.
6. So the government did it.
What?
András Tóth-Czifra, Hungary’s Sudden Army Purge: What’s Going On?- CEPA
It took Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky more than a week to confirm the biggest overhaul in the ranks of Hungary’s army in the past two decades after the first articles appeared about a major wave of layoffs. For days, news about the dismissal of hundreds of high-ranking officers, some of them only recently promoted, were circulating in the Hungarian press without any official comment from the government.
Szalay-Bobrovniczky said in an interview on January 31 that several hundred officers were being sacked, mostly from the top ranks, in order to help “meritocracy and competition” in the army and to make the organization a little less top-heavy. The decision came as the government struggles to fill up to 10,000 roles in the lower ranks (the current personnel ceiling is 37,460.) The layoffs have already been taking place based on a decree signed by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán a week earlier, which allows the firing of officers who have served at least 25 years and are at least 45 years old, with two months’ notice. Many are at the rank of lieutenant colonel and above. There were reports of officers summoned from posts abroad to be summarily dismissed.
Given the government’s unwillingness to offer much explanation, others began to fill in the blanks.
Programming note…
