Jan 1: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
And…let’s kick off the new year!
Madi Kapparov is not only a great analyst, he’s also a photographer. His photo reminds me of the snowy winters of my youth but it also reminded me of how beautiful the world can be.
E-Stories will continue to bring you the news about the illegal Russian war against Ukraine until Ukraine achieves victory. I’m in for the long haul. A huge thanks to everyone reading E-Stories.
Stories we’re following…
Dec 30: Russian forces launched 49 Shahed drones of which only 21 were shot down. Most were aimed for front line defensive positions. The Russian forces fired drones and missiles on Kherson, Donetsk, Dnipro, Odesa, Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Dec 31st, Air Force: Patriot air defense systems have already shot down 15 Kinzhal missiles. Ukraine's Air Force admitted in early May that it shot down a Russian Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missile for the first time since the start of the war.
The Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: Russian troops shelled 11 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 128 towns and villages and 115 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
The Kharkiv mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said the drone attack came in several waves, hitting residential buildings in the city centre and starting fires. “All relevant emergency services are already on the site. Information about potential casualties is being clarified.”
Casualties from Russian attack on Kharkiv rises to 26. Russian forces attacked downtown Kharkiv on Dec. 30, injuring 26 people, the regional prosecutor's office reported. Among those injured are two boys, aged 14 and 16, and a foreign journalist. Previous reporting stated that only 20 civilians were injured.
Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko has said Russia is “targetting and hitting civilian buildings”, following the fresh bombardment on Ukrainian regions. In an interview with BBC Radio 4, she said colleagues had told her that:
There has been destruction of so many civilian buildings, the administration, the hotels, just the debris fron the drones and the missiles which were hitting just residential areas.
Now Russia is launching these missiles - it’s the C-300s along with the drones – not even covering up that they’re trying to hit energy infrastructure, which essentially is civilian infrastructure, but actually targetting and hitting civilian buildings.
Ministry: Power supply fully restored in Kyiv Oblast following massive Russian attack. Works on restoring power and gas supplies are underway in several other regions across Ukraine.
Me: the Ukrainian services were in full swing on Dec 29 to bring back services in the six cities hit by the most intense Russian barrage since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It’s incredible to me that they work so quickly.
Belgorod: As of the writing of this post, 22 people killed, 110 wounded. The bomb shelters in Belgorod were closed. On Dec 30 in the afternoon, the Russian authorities in Belgorod put out information on Telegram stating that many incidents were caused by falling debris from Russian air defence activity. This information was erased in the late afternoon.
What we know is that the Ukrainian forces had targeted a warehouse and other military infrastructure. A Ukrainian security source told the BBC that casualties in Belgorod were the result of “incompetent work of Russian air defence”, suggesting debris from failed Russian interceptors fell on the city. OSINT investigators have been hard at work to understand if this was the case.
After admitting that Russian air defence had caused debris to fall on the civilian population, the Russian authorities changed their tune in the late afternoon. They then called for an ‘emergency’ meeting at the UN to denounce so-called Ukrainian ‘atrocities’. The legacy media quickly took up the narrative that the Ukrainians were the perpretrators of the attack because they were acting on revenge for the intense Russian missile attacks on Dec 29 in six Ukrainian cities.
President Zelensky’s evening address: December 31 of the second year of full-scale war, of our resistance.
Recently I signed several decrees on honoring our warriors and our gratitude to them. And I want to talk about them today. Almost 700 warriors.
All of these nearly 700 warriors who have been honored today, as well as the medics who have also been awarded and to whom we are all grateful for saving our military, have shown themselves on the front line in combat brigades, in the defense of our people and the whole of Ukraine. On December 31, January 1, on every holiday and every weekday, our Ukraine is defended by such people, such Ukrainians. They are the strength and pride of our nation.
And I want to especially thank everyone who is in combat, at combat posts, on combat missions now! Everyone who is at the front. Everyone who is defending our Ukrainian skies right now, on this day – Kropyvnytskyi and the region. Unfortunately, there are Russian strikes again today. And the guys will defend our skies tonight and tomorrow.
Everyone who treats our servicemen, who is on duty in the ranks of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. In local authorities. And everyone who uses the New Year to complete another fundraiser for the guys on the front line.
I thank everyone who works and will work at our defense enterprises seven days a week. And everyone who will continue to communicate with Ukraine's partners on January 1, tomorrow, without wasting time, so that next year our country will have as many capabilities as possible to fight the Russian evil.
I thank you all! Glory to Ukraine!
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russia to continue large-scale combined weapons strikes against Ukraine. Russia will likely continue to conduct strikes against Ukraine in the coming days to coincide with the New Year holiday as they did last year in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in their daily assessment on Dec. 29. (Me: just a reminder that Russia stockpiled missiles and drones throughout the summer, mostly coming from Iran and China.)
Current Russian missile and drone reserves and production rates likely do not allow Russian forces to conduct regular large-scale missile strikes, but likely do allow for more consistent drone strikes, as assessed by ISW in its Russian offensive campaigns assessment for December 29.
On November 6 that Russian forces produced 115 long-range high-precision missiles in October 2023, including 30 Iskander-M cruise missiles, 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr cruise missiles, 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 9 Kh-32 cruise missiles, and 4 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. Skibitskyi also stated that Russian forces had a total of 870 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic missiles in reserve in November and that this number increased by 285 missiles between August and November.
However, ISW asserts that the Russian forces will be able to continue the strikes with the Shahed drones based on production output at Russia’s Alabuga facility.
CDS CombatSit report on the ground:
Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Synkivka, where the adversary unsuccessfully attempted to breach the Ukrainian defense.
Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka and Andriivka.
Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, which persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 enemy attacks near Stepove and Avdiivka and 21 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske over the past day.
Maryinka direction, the Defense Forces continue to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 9 enemy attacks.
Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled 2 enemy attacks west and northwest of Verbove.
Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead.
General conclusion:
The enemy forces lack the striking power to fulfill their immediate objective on the Kupyansk direction. Offensive actions have been practically halted on the Lyman and Shakhtarsk directions
Advanced enemy units have reached a position 2 km from the western outskirts of Robotyne and continue to attack. If they succeed in advancing on this direction by at least 1-1.5 km, the situation to the east and southeast of Robotyne for the "Tavriya" OSG will deteriorate significantly.
In the near future, the enemy will commence the assault on Novomykhailivka.
Noel Report: "Russia has already launched ~3800 kamikaze drones on Ukraine. Roughly 3000 of them were shot down," Air Force Spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.
Ukrainian forces targeting Crimea on Dec 31: An air raid alert was declared in Sevastopol, and traffic on the Crimean Bridge was also blocked.
Military: Ukrainians can choose brigade for mobilization themselves. Individuals subject to compulsory military service who wish to join the Ukrainian Armed Forces can choose a brigade to serve in, Volodymyr Fito, the head of the Army's public relations service, said during TV marathon on Dec. 29.
Russian Naval HQs in Sevastopol: what’s left of it. The building has been abandoned.
The training of Ukrainian pilots and personnel to fly the F-16 fighter aircraft continues as agreed within the air coalition. The relevant statement was made Spokesperson for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yurii Ihnat during a nationwide telethon, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“The F-16s are not expectations but an action plan. We have it, and we are systematically approaching our goal with our Western partners. I communicate with pilots, but I do not take their exams. I do not know at what stage they are, actually, in this training, but it is underway. You know the countries – they have already been announced: these are Denmark, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries, where not only pilots but also ground personnel are undergoing training,” Ihnat said.
Behind the Lines
National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry: a database containing the details of over 100,000 residents from temporarily occupied territories, suspected of disloyalty, has been created by Russian authorities. The database is compiled by operatives from GRU and FSB with assistance from local occupation administrations. Access to this database is expected to be granted to occupiers at various checkpoints in the future.
A rally was held in Odesa to remind of those who are being held in Russian captivity.
In the temporarily occupied Crimea, the invaders have claimed ownership of 2,600 assets, both movable and immovable, belonging to Ukrainian citizens. This information comes from "Krym.Realii," citing Volodymyr Konstantinov, the "head of the occupational parliament" of Crimea. According to him, these properties were "nationalized" from 192 individuals and legal entities. Furthermore, 24 of the "nationalized" assets were sold at auctions.
Businessman detained over allegedly attempting to bribe State Bureau of Investigation official. A businessman from Lviv was detained for allegedly attempting to bribe an official of the State Bureau of Investigation with $500,000, the Bureau announced on Dec. 30. (Me: Ukrainian officials continue to bring Ukrainians to account on corruption charges. They have been doing this steadily since June 2022.)
Iryna Matvyishyn: This is Natalia from Mariupol - before and after Russia bombed her city in 2022. Russians destoryed her home, business, health, turning her beautiful and active life into hell. Natalia miraculously survived but only two years after, she says, she wants to live again.
I met Natalia in Kyiv for a story (hopefully, it will come out soon, and you'll read it in full). For now, I'm posting this in case anyone would like to support this incredibly strong woman who's gone through so much pain that it is hard to grasp.
In March, Russia bombed the dormitory where Natalia was seeking shelter with her kids and husband. Fortunately, they survived, but she endured numerous shrapnel injuries, with half of her head and hands shattered into pieces, and the loss of one eye.
After two years of surgeries, Natalia still lives with pieces of shrapnel inside her body, sometimes causing her unbearable pain.
Today, Natalia feels much better than months ago. However, it requires significant resources to maintain her health — from regular changes of prosthetic eyes to buying cosmetics that helps her feel comfortable in among people.
While Ukrainian doctors are helping Natalia regain her face, she also has to take care of her little kid. Because Natalia's husband, who was also injured, has to look after her, he cannot work either. For now, the family lives on their savings and volunteers.
Meet the 73-Year-Old Great-Grandmother Defying the Dictatorship in Belarus
In August [2020], a video of Nina Baginskaya pushing past two masked riot policemen went viral on social media. “I’m going for a walk,” she told the officers, while holding the disputed Belarusian national flag that originates from the country’s independence. Dictatorial leader Alexander Lukashenko has long considered the flag —a red horizontal stripe between two whites— as a symbol of national opposition to his rule and its public display has often led to arrest.
Baginskaya, a former geologist born when Belarus was still under Soviet rule, has become the unlikely hero of the tens of thousands rallying across the country protesting disputed elections on Aug. 9 that gave Lukashenko, Europe’s longest serving leader, a sixth term in office.
What has pushed you to protest?
I have been arrested and fined for my activism many times beginning in 1988 until today. These experiences pushed me to protest. Ordinary people cannot allow reprisals against them, their family and friends. But repression is still taking place in our country. I think that everyone must express their opinion.
I’m protesting because of the police brutality. My family could be targets [Baginskaya has two children, two grandchildren and one great grandchild]. Large numbers of people are taking to the streets and are doing what I’ve been doing for the past 30 years. And they won’t stop until there is a change in leadership. People cannot be slaves to the government. The president must listen to the people. The authorities need a functioning parliament and civil society. I never supported Lukashenko. I believe in people like Svetlana Tikhanovskaya who want to protect the country’s culture and uniqueness.
I tell the police that they need to serve the people and not a government that is ordering them to crack down on the protestors. The authorities have taken 50% of my pension in fines. They’re trying to deter other people from going out to protest. When I was younger, police detained me for three days in isolation. Recently they have been holding me for three hours. I laugh because they’re wasting their strength on an old person like me.
ISW: Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilizing Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova.
Russia continues attempts to actively shape the Western information space to support Russian positions and undermine support for Ukraine while portraying these efforts as endogenous to the West.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin’s New Year Speech: No Surprises. Putin called for united support of his army in his annual new year address, but didn’t explicitly refer to the war he is waging in Ukraine. He also referenced economic issues, a key topic for many Russians, and declared 2024 the "year of the family". The address was a more subdued affair than the previous year's.
"We have proven more than once that we can solve the most difficult problems and will never retreat, because there is no force that can divide us," the Russian president said.
"We are united in our thoughts, in work and in battle, on weekdays and holidays, showing the most important traits of the Russian people - solidarity, mercy, fortitude," he said.
A litre of diesel fuel in Moscow at the end of December could be bought for 63 rubles. It costs about the same (64.2 rubles) on average across the country. At the same time, the most popular gasoline, AI 95, costs 56.2 rubles in Moscow. On the eve of the war, in February 2022, the prices of diesel and gasoline were almost equal: 54 and 53 rubles, respectively.
Over the year, diesel fuel rose in price by 9.9% - slightly more than gasoline (7.3%), which practically repeated inflation (7.4%), according to Rosstat. In some regions, retail prices fluctuated much more strongly. The current price gap is almost 7 rubles, or 12% in December - the maximum in history.
Julia Davis—Meanwhile in Russia: Sergey Markov, Putin's former advisor, said that Russia's New Year's wish is for a civil war in America. State TV host Evgeny Popov dispensed fashion advice for the year of "the Wood Dragon" — luxury fabrics and lots of heavy gold.
The fall in the import of medicines from abroad and the stagnation of domestic production, dependent on imported raw materials, created the threat of a shortage in Russian pharmacies.
158 drugs, including basic antiseptics, painkillers, hormones and vaccines, were included in the closed part of the state register of drugs for which authorities see a risk of shortage. According to Pharmvestnik , over the year the list of “defective drugs” has become one and a half times larger: 58 items have been added to it.
Since last year, the list includes paracetamol, aspirin, ibuprofen, analgin, the hormonal drug prednisolone, and penicillin antibiotics (amoxicillin and doxycycline). Also at risk of shortage are the painkiller lidocaine, iodine solution, Corvalol in tablets and drops, nitroglycerin, vaccines for the prevention of diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus (ADKS), vitamin E and several types of human immunoglobulin.
In 2023, 1.3 thousand types of imported drugs disappeared from Russian pharmacies, the DSM Group calculated . The assortment decreased by 20% over the year, to 6.4 thousand items, and collapsed by more than a third relative to pre-war levels: in 2019, there were almost 9 thousand foreign drugs in pharmacies.
At the same time, it is not possible to increase in-house production of drugs: in January–November 2023, pharmaceutical factories produced 3.71 billion packages - 2.3% less than in the same period a year earlier (according to RNC Pharma ).
Too much vodka.
The foundation of Vladimir Putin’s daughter, head of Innopraktika Katerina Tikhonova and her first deputy Natalya Popova acquired 10% of the Scientific and Technical Center “Privodnaya Tekhnika” - one of the leading manufacturers of electric drive equipment for industry. RBC reports this with reference to a joint letter from the companies. They do not disclose the amount of the transaction.
“This is necessary for investment in expansion” and “for competition with global manufacturers of similar products, including as part of import substitution,” explained one of the founders of Privodnoy Tekhniki, Sergei Chupin. The Drive Technology group includes six companies and four production sites with more than 1,200 employees. Among the company's customers are Rosneft, Gazprom, LUKOIL and other enterprises.
Me: please note that the ‘scientific centres’ are used in Russia to hide research and development for sensitive military projects from western eyes. Most of them work for the Russian Armed Forces in some form or another. The Russians established these ‘research centres’ in the 1960s before arms control talks with the Americans so as to deny that they were indeed still going forward with their nuclear programmes. I’m not surprised that Putin has placed his daughter in this centre in addition to other centres.
Russian courts have sentenced more than 200 Ukrainian fighters to “long” prison terms since the beginning of the conflict, Lavrov said in an interview with the state RIA news agency published on Sunday. Lavrov added that Russia’s main investigative organ, the Investigative Committee, has initiated 4,000 criminal cases against about 900 Ukrainian individuals, Reuters reported. Lavrov said:
The courts of the Russian Federation have already sentenced moUpmprisonment for committing atrocities.
Up-date on the Czech response to Russia’s demands that they are questioned about the missiles the Czechs provide to Ukraine.
Allied Support
UK defense secretary calls on world to provide further air defenses to Ukraine. The world should follow the U.K.'s example and reinforce Ukraine's air defenses, U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said on Dec. 30, only a day after pledging hundreds of British anti-air missiles to Kyiv.
"Ukraine cannot be left to defend itself alone from a despot like (Vladimir) Putin. So now is the time to ramp up our support," Shapps wrote on the social media platform X.
"Yesterday, the U.K. started on that mission by bringing forward more support for air defense. The world must now follow suit because getting Ukraine what it needs to win will save us all expense and provide liberty for everyone in the long run."
Happy New Year from allies in Japan! The largest burst I think I’ve ever seen.
EU Commission VP: Ukraine's membership to 'take years,' not decades. Ukraine's accession to EU membership will take years rather than decades, Vera Jourova, the EU Commission's vice-president, told Czech outlet Novinky in an interview published on Dec. 30.
Germany pledges additional $27 million for Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The German state-owned KfW Development Bank will allocate 24.5 million euros ($27.1 million) to restore and improve Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the German embassy in Ukraine announced on Dec. 30.
Greetings from Xi
Xi Jinping on Sunday said the foundation of Sino-Russian ties had grown stronger in 2023, as he exchanged New Year greetings with his counterpart Vladimir Putin, state media reported.
Beijing and Moscow are staunch allies and have strengthened their relationship even as Western countries have turned their backs on Russia over its military invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. He added:
In the face of changes unseen in a century and a turbulent regional and international situation, China-Russia relations have maintained healthy and stable development and moved steadily in the right direction.
Under our joint leadership, political mutual trust between the two sides has further deepened, strategic coordination has drawn closer, and mutually beneficial cooperation has continued to achieve new results.
Russian interference in the Brexit Campaign 2016: Russian embassies and consulates (even informal consulates) all act to gather intelligence and as a base for operations in the cities where they are located. Vienna, for example, has been widely written about for the activities of the Russian embassy there, including electronic surveillance conducted from the rooftop of the embassy building. Over 4 million euro was withdrawn by the Russian embassy in Rome for their activities and the Italian Financial Investigation Unit is working on the case. The embassies and consulates provide perfect cover for GRU agents, which are regularly assigned to embassies. What Wylie asserts here is perfectly plausible and has been supported by investigators gathering information about Russian activity in the EU and the U.S.
Gabrielius Landsbergis: The Pearl Harbour Effect
Gabrielius Landsbergis is Lithuania’s foreign minister and he comes from a politically active family. His grandfather, Vytautas, headed Lithuania’s break from Soviet Russia—Lithuania was the first state to declare independence from the Soviets in 1991. He also spearheaded the Singing Revolution, which led to the Human Chain or Baltic Way, which saw over 2 million Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians join hands over 650 km in August 1989—they wanted freedom.
I was going to write an op-ed for today, but this says almost everything I wanted to say. The only thing I would add is that in order for us to support Ukraine at this pivotal moment, our leaders must let go of Russia. They don’t want Ukraine to be dismembered, but they don’t want Russia to suffer the consequences of its aggression either. This could bring to Russia’s collapse. My own feeling is that if the West doesn’t let go of Russia, it will bring us all down with it. We cannot ‘save’ the Russians—they need to save themselves. Now to Gabrielius..
For nearly 25 years we have been kicking can down the road, trying to contain Putin's imperialism with dialogue and diplomacy while he continues to ignore borders and flatten cities.
In 2014, Russia's first attack against Ukraine was paused by the Minsk agreements, but the underlying issues were left for another day. Russia became tomorrow's problem.
Tomorrow always comes. The problem of Russia's imperialism didn't disappear in 2014, and to most eastern flankers it was clear that the next phase of the invasion would be costlier and deadlier. And so it was.
When Russia attacked again, the war suddenly became today’s problem. Again we think we can solve it by making it tomorrow’s problem.
But the premise has not changed. Russia’s imperialist revanchist ambitions will remain. The next phase would be directed not just against Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova but possibly against NATO. The price, human and economic, will only go up.
We could wait for what I have called the “Pearl Harbor effect”, a moment in history when the problems of tomorrow finally become the problems of today, but at an enormously inflated price. Or we could treat this as today’s problem and start solving it today.
We are on the verge of repeating historic mistakes. I am convinced that if we won’t defeat Russia now, that means our chosen path is to suffer unimaginable and unnecessary losses before we eventually decide it’s time to step up and win.
Statement by Mr. NAGANO Shunsuke, Counsellor, Permanent Mission of Japan to the United Nations, at the Arria-formula meeting on Ukraine
It is quite eye-opening to learn about a history of “Maidan” from the Russian point of view. At the same time, for most of us here and the world, it is quite obvious that this is another attempt to defame and criticize Ukraine and the West, thereby distracting world’s attention from what is going on right now in Ukrainian territories – disastrous humanitarian situation due to Russia’s aggression – as well as justifying the brutal aggression against a sovereign state.
We are fed up with Russia calling so many Security Council meetings including Arria-formula meetings to this end. Do we, the Council Members and UN Member States, really deserve this? Despite all the efforts by Russia, no reasonable person would believe its narrative. Such misuse of the prerogative of a Council member would rather be self destructive, further damaging its reputation. It is sad for everybody.
We once again urge the Russian Federation not to squander our precious time and resources for your political purposes. Russia should direct its diplomatic energy toward correcting its own violation of the UN Charter.
We remain steadfast in upholding and strengthening the free and open international order based on the rule of law, respecting the UN Charter. There must be no impunity for war crimes and other atrocities. Justice must be done, and those who are responsible for the undeniable atrocities must be held accountable.
Happy new year! May it bring victory to Ukraine.