Jan 10 Buonasera Mag
Day 311: Bakhmut Soledar Melitopol Patrushev RUFelon Kamnev Azovstal Wagner VDL GER UK SWE Iceland UAdoctors-A&P- UKDef Betsa Noel Motyl Sumlenny Babij Ross Cooper Weiss Scollick Davis WOTR
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks on nine Ukrainian oblasts throughout Jan. 9 killed several and injured dozens. In the city of Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Oblast, a Russian attack injured 15, including a 2-year-old child.
Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving forward on the Svatove and Kreminna fronts, they are gradually liberating the territory towards the city of Kreminna, - Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk governor.
Zelensky: Army's resilience in Soledar allows Ukraine to win time and gain strength. Ukrainian forces' resilience during the ongoing battle for the town of Soledar in Donetsk Oblast has allowed Ukraine to win time, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his address to the nation on Jan. 9.
‘Fierce battle’ rages in Soledar, with 22 combat clashes over past 24 hours. A “fierce battle” rages in the town of Soledar near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces, said on Jan. 9. Soledar ‘practically destroyed,’ Russia deploys most trained Wagner mercenaries in the area.
Mayor: Russian ammunition warehouse destroyed in occupied Melitopol. On the night of Jan. 8, a Russian ammunition warehouse was destroyed in Melitopol, said Mayor Ivan Fedorov. The warehouse was located in the city center on the territory of the state enterprise “Hydromash.”
“The whole story with Ukraine was started in Washington in order to work out the technologies for delimiting and playing off a single people,” said Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation , in an interview with Argumenty i Fakty.
Russia not risking to use its most advanced Felon aircraft over Ukraine. Russia has been using its newest Sukhoi Su-57 combat jets, also known as Felon, to attack targets in Ukraine since at least June, but only from its own territory to avoid losing the aircraft, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Jan. 9.
Via The Moscow Times: The scientific director of the Almaz-Antey Aerospace Defense Concern Pavel Kamnev has died at 86. Kamnev is the third top defense manager to die in the last two weeks.
OSCE head opposes Russia’s expulsion from organization. OSCE Secretary General Helga Schmid told German television channel Welt that “it makes sense” to keep Russia in the organization to maintain diplomatic channels.
Meduza: Journalist and public monitoring commission member Eva Merkacheva says Wagner’s inmate-recruits were freed by a secret presidential decree before they even left prison. The records are classified, say the mercenaries’ relatives.
United Russia uses ‘AI and special algorithms’ to purge war critics from party database: it was reduced from 25 million people to 9 million, and then boosted by another 4 million.
Russia’s government cabinet supports a bill to ban maps that “dispute Russia’s territorial integrity” -specifically, Crimea, the Kuril Islands, and “other territories” and most likely the other annexed regions of Ukraine.
A Russian warship armed with hypersonic cruise weapons has held exercises in the Norwegian Sea, according to the country’s defence ministry. Vladimir Putin sent the frigate to the Atlantic Ocean last week, which was read as a signal to the west that Russia will not back down over the war in Ukraine.
The head of the EU Commission von der Leyen has announced the EU will impose new sanctions on Belarus as it continues to up the pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine and extends measures to those countries that support Russia.
The EU’s top representative to Ukraine, Matti Maasikas, says Kyiv is close to reaching a milestone in reforming the country’s court system with the appointment of eight new members of the High Council of Justice (HJC).
Shmyhal: Ukraine expects EU to sanction Russian nuclear industry. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Jan. 9 that Ukraine expects the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry, specifically the state nuclear operator Rosatom, in its next package of measures against the country.
German government says it doesn’t plan to provide Ukraine with Leopard tanks. Germany has no current plans to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks, the country’s government spokesman said on Jan. 9, cited by Reuters. The statement comes a day after German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told ARD that the possibility of delivering the tanks “can not be ruled out.”
France, Poland push Germany to hand over Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Paris is putting pressure on Germany to agree to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on Jan. 22, Politico reported, citing an unnamed French official.
Britain is considering supplying a handful of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, the first time a western country has indicated it may supply its homemade heavy armour to Kyiv in the war against Russia.
Mayor: Latvia sends 10 buses to Kyiv. Latvia has sent ten buses from Riga to Kyiv, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported on Jan. 10. The buses will contain some humanitarian aid for Ukraine “collected by the residents of Latvia,” Klitschko added.
Sweden pledges to provide Ukraine with Archer artillery systems. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson pledged on Jan. 9 that Ukraine would receive Archer self-propelled artillery systems, following discussions about such supplies last year.
Iceland has joined Estonia's kindergarten rebuilding project in Zhytomyr Oblast which began earlier this year. Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) spoke with Icelandic foreign minister Thórdís Gylfadóttir on Friday to discuss further cooperation to help Ukraine. Reinsalu recognized Iceland for joining the kindergarten project in the region Estonia has pledged to help rebuild. He laid the cornerstone of the new building in Ovruch last autumn.
Alexander Motyl, Putin is preparing for a long war- The Atlantic Council
Vladimir Putin knows Russia is in serious trouble. A comparison of his recent New Year address with the speech he delivered just one year earlier reveals a dramatic change in tone, focus, and language that hints at mounting alarm behind the scenes in the Kremlin over the rapidly unraveling invasion of Ukraine. Gone, too, was the Moscow skyline setting that typically serves as the backdrop for this keynote annual address. Instead, a somber-looking Putin spoke while flanked by rows of soldiers in uniform.
This symbolism matters. In modern Russia, the head of state’s New Year speech is an important tradition that seeks to set the tone for the coming year. On this occasion, the mood Putin sought to convey was of a country facing the prospect of a long and difficult war. After months spent downplaying the invasion of Ukraine as a “Special Military Operation,” he was now belatedly acknowledging the severity of the situation.
Larissa Babij, a Kind of Refugee- 07.01.2023
I am on vacation in Lviv. Doing nothing is the challenge and privilege I’ve taken on, knowing that—like anything in wartime—you have to do it now, because then will be too late.
In the last days of 2022 my Ukrainian friends started asking me: Where’s our lend-lease? Don’t you think the Americans are mocking us and their own history? What do you mean you haven’t studied the 1941 Lend-Lease Act? Isn’t that your responsibility as an American?
They were, of course, pushing me to say something, to take responsibility for the actions of my government. The historic Lend-Lease Act of 1941 allowed the US to send weapons, vehicles, fuel, airplanes, food to Great Britain and later to its allies, including the Soviet Union; without these materials WWII would have ended differently.
Madeleine Ross, Chinese tracking device is 'discovered inside UK government car', as senior politician slams Beijing as a 'systematic' threat to Britain's security- The Daily Mail
At least one hidden Chinese tracking device was discovered in a UK government car after officials forensically searched vehicles. A SIM card capable of transmitting location data was found in a security sweep which discovered 'disturbing things', a security source said. The tracker was found inside a sealed part that had been imported from China.
The revelation has caused concern among senior MPs as more calls are made for China to be treated as a 'threat' and for goods manufactured in China to be used with more care.
The cars, which are used to transport diplomats and senior government officials, including ministers, were searched as part of an effort to improve the UK's defence infrastructure.
In Conversation with Benedict Rogers
Sam Cooper is the author of the best-selling book Wilful Blindness: How a Network of Narcos, Tycoons and CCP Agents Infiltrated the West, which was first published last year but has just been updated and re-released this month. Sam is an award-winning Canadian investigative journalist who has presented his findings to law enforcement agencies, legal and financial professionals and academics around the world. He works for Global News based in Ottawa.
Weiss and Rushton, Turkey supports Ukraine without alienating Russia- Yahoo News
Power projection and self-enrichment are clear motives for Erdogan. Turkey under his leadership has embroiled itself in armed conflicts not just in its immediate vicinity but as far afield as North Africa and the Caucasus. Wars in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh not only advance Turkey’s strategic interests but act as proving grounds and international expos for modern Turkish weapons systems that are then sold to third-party nations. Yet Turkey remains the only NATO country to refuse to impose any sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
In Kyiv, Erdogan is considered if not quite a committed ally, then certainly not an enemy, owing to what matters most of all to Ukrainians: ongoing and escalating weapons deliveries. “The average Ukrainian takes Turkey as a friend,” a Ukrainian journalist, who asked to remain anonymous, told Yahoo News. “Our government declares this in public too. But everyone understands that Erdogan is dancing at both weddings. He’s getting benefits from Russia as well.”
Programming Note…
Ryan Evans & Michael Kofman, A Disquieting Winter War in Ukraine- WOTR (podcast)
Michael Kofman joins Ryan for their first discussion of the new year on the war in Ukraine. They cover the state of play at the various fronts, manpower and materiel, the Russian strike campaign, and more.
