Jan 11 Buonasera Mag
Day 321: Soledar 600RUagents ZNPP Lapin RUcrude GERgas Bastrykin leopards patriots Latvia CND CH ITA EU/NATO -A&Ps- Kaleniuk ISW Davis Berlin Lautman Zelensky Umland FIDU Katatnycky Tammik Wheatley
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that fierce battles are raging for the salt-mining town. "The approaches to our positions are simply littered with the bodies of dead enemy fighters," she said.
ISW: Russian forces have not captured all of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on Jan. 10, pointing out a rare victory after facing a series of humiliating defeats across the front line. However, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.
Security Service has uncovered 600 Russian agents, spies in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Since Feb. 24, over 1,500 investigations into suspected treason and espionage have been opened, and more than 340 of such cases have been sent to court.
Almost 1,500 Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant employees not allowed to enter facility. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Jan. 11 that Russian occupation forces exert "moral and physical pressure" on the population of the occupied territories.
Russia appoints Lapin as new ground forces chief. Russia has appointed Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin as the new chief of staff of its ground forces, Reuters reported, citing Russian state-controlled media TASS.
Russia’s artillery fire in Ukraine has gone down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%, according to US and Ukrainian officials. The drop in shelling is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion, officials have told CNN. The officials did not give a clear or single explanation behind the striking decline in artillery fire.
Russia’s crude oil trades at half global prices, below cap. Russia’s flagship crude oil, Urals, has sold at less than half of international prices and below the G7-imposed price cap amid Western sanctions, impacting its ability to wage its full-scale war against Ukraine, reported Bloomberg on Jan. 9
Russia reports $47 billion budget deficit for 2022. On Jan. 10, the Russian government reported its second highest budget deficit in the post-Soviet era. The New York Times reported citing Russia's finance minister that the budget gap reached 3.3 trillion rubles in 2022, or 2.3 percent of the Russian economy.
Russian authorities on Monday announced parallel criminal probes against a famous actor critical of the war in Ukraine and a philanthropist who supports the Russian opposition, the latest in a months-long, sweeping crackdown on dissent. Alexander Bastrykin ordered the launch of a criminal case against Russian film and theater actor Artur Smolyaninov, who left the country after Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine and repeatedly spoke out against the war.
Hanna Liubakova: “The MoD reported that the military data verification of men has been completed: more than 95% of those liable for military service have passed the verification. Of course,such checkups took place before but many noticed that the scale this time was much higher. Worrying.”
Kuleba confident Germany will supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks after 3-hour meeting with Baerbock. “I think that the German government, somewhere deep down, understands that this decision will be made, and the tanks will be transferred to Ukraine. The only upsetting thing is that this decision has not been made yet, and we are losing precious time and lives because of this,” the foreign minister said.
Spanish Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, has revealed this Tuesday that Switzerland is vetoing the shipment of certain military material to Ukraine from Spain and has insisted on the need to continue increasing defense spending in the face of the global "insecurity" situation. "We understand, respect and accept neutrality, but for a material we need some authorization from Switzerland that it is not giving us at this time," he revealed, anticipating that Defense will ask the embassy in the country for help to obtain the go-ahead.
Ukrainians are set to begin training on the Patriot missile system in the United States as soon as next week, two US officials familiar with the matter tell CNN. The training program will take place at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, where the US conducts its own training on operating and maintaining the advanced air defense system.
Downing St has confirmed that the British government is planning to provide tanks to Ukraine to help the country defend itself against the Russian invasion, the Financial Times reports.
Poland plans to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition, the Polish president said according to reports. In a visit to Lviv, Andrzej Duda said:
A company of Leopard tanks will be handed over as part of coalition building…We want it to be an international coalition.
Latvia to send more Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Latvian Defense Minister Inara Murniece said her country could announce it during the upcoming Ramstein summit on Jan. 20, Latvian Public Media reported on Jan. 10.
Canada to buy NASAMS air defense system for Ukraine. "Canada's NASAMS donation will help Ukraine strengthen its air defense systems against destructive air attacks on military sites, critical civilian infrastructure, and population centers," the country's Department of National Defence said.
Nato and the EU are launching a task force to bolster the protection of critical infrastructure in response to last year’s attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and Russia’s “weaponising of energy”, leaders said on Wednesday. The European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the task force would initially come up with proposals on transport, energy, digital and space infrastructure.
Estonia has demanded that the Russian government reduce the number of its embassy within the country, according to reports. The press release reportedly said: “Estonia considers the principle of parity very important in our relations with Russia. Considering that, in light of this war of aggression, the Russian Embassy is not engaged in promoting Estonian-Russian relations, we believe that its (current) size is not justified. Now we have set a limit for the number of diplomats working in Estonia in order to achieve parity”.
According to a new report by FT, “China now perceives a likelihood that Russia will fail to prevail against Ukraine and emerge from the conflict a ‘minor power’”.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and her Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida agreed on Tuesday to the bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. “This is a significant step that involves strengthening our contacts at every level and opening up new prospects for our citizens and businesses,” said PM Meloni.
Ukrainian billionaire Zhevago released in France on 1 million euro bail. According to the report, Zhevago has posted bail and currently stays in the Courchevel ski resort, where he was detained at the request of the State Investigation Bureau of Ukraine on Dec. 27. He can't leave France.
Allen Weisselberg, Donald Trump’s former longtime finance chief, was sentenced to five months in jail over his role in a tax fraud scheme. Mr. Weisselberg, 75, who worked for the Trump family for the past half-century, testified as the prosecution’s star witness in the trial that ended in the conviction of the Trump Organization last year.
Golden Globes: President Zelensky appeared in a video message during the Golden Globes to thank his allies in the “free world.” Introduced by Sean Penn, Zelenky addressed the audience, saying: “The war in Ukraine is not over yet, but the tide is turning, and it is already clear who will win. There are still battles and tears ahead, but now I can tell you who was the best in the previous year – you in the free world, who united around support of free Ukrainian people.” He added: “There will be no third world war, it’s not a trilogy.”
Liudmyla Tiahnyriadno, "The most difficult question was 'when will it end?'": child psychologist about experienced occupation- Rubyka
Rubryka talked to Natalia Antonenko, a child and family psychologist. For more than 16 years, she has been engaged in child development, art therapy, and fairy tale therapy. When the russian military entered Kherson, Natalia was there and did not leave the city until its liberation, waiting for the Ukrainian defenders. We asked her about life and raising children in the occupation and asked her to advise parents who, together with their children, are still waiting for liberation.
Andreas Umland, COMMENTARY – HISTORICAL ESOTERICISM AS A COGNITION METHOD:: How Russian Pseudo-scholars have Contributed to Moscow's Anti-Western Turn- Sage Journals
A number of para-academic tendencies in Russian social science helped prepare the Ukraine war. In addition to propaganda and disinformation campaigns by the Kremlin, an intellectual deformation of the Russian elite by the Manichean ideas of such theorists as Lev Gumilyov and Aleksandr Dugin is partly responsible for Russia's increasing secession from Europe. Post-Soviet public discourse has become infected with an array of speculative, often conspiratorial, and sometimes occultist or racist theories. Their proponents have crowded out acknowledged social scientists and historians from intellectual and media debates. This parallel public discourse has been developing since the beginning of glasnost, 35 years ago, and became one of the determinants of Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2014.
Adrian Karatnycky, Putin’s American Cheerleaders- Wall Street Journal
How Jeffrey Sachs, Mark Episkopos and Dimitri Simes contribute to the Russian propaganda effort.
American commentators and journalists often appear on Ukrainian television expressing solidarity and offering analysis. Russia’s airwaves have largely been free of U.S. voices, save for occasional clips from American airwaves by Ukraine critics such as Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Most U.S. guests on Russian media come from the fringe, including former Virginia State Sen. Richard Black, who associates with the Lyndon LaRouche movement’s Schiller Institute, and Scott Ritter, an embittered and disgraced former American intelligence officer turned critic of the war in Iraq.
More surprising are the appearances of several establishment figures: Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs ; the National Interest’s former national security correspondent, Mark Episkopos ; and Dimitri Simes, until recently president of the Center for the National Interest. They willingly appear on the programs of Russia’s most odious state propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov. Mr. Solovyov has called for a Russian invasion of Europe, bombing Ukrainian cities into the ground, and punishing Ukrainians for “Nazism.” Last month he declared on air that “the more we burn Ukraine now, the easier it will be to pummel Germany, Britain, France, all those European Nazi bastards, and the United States will also suffer.”
Thomas Wheatley, Georgia grand jury investigating Trump for election interference finishes work- Axios
Driving the news: In an order released Monday Judge Robert McBurney wrote that the panel has finished its work and should be dissolved. But it's unclear if the final report will be made public.
Why it matters: The investigation probed whether the former president himself, and/or his allies, for criminal efforts to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia
The nearly two dozen members of the grand jury have been investigating the matter for more than six months and it’s unclear what, if any charges, could stem from it.
The high-profile case has featured testimony from Trump allies like Rudy Giuliani, Lindsey Graham, Michael Flynn, plus testimony from state leaders including Gov. Brian Kemp, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and others.
Ott Tammik, Estonia to Move Ahead of EU With Plans to Seize Russian Asset- Bloomberg
Estonia plans to introduce a legal blueprint for seizing Russian assets this month as the Baltic nation moves ahead with a bid to deliver funds frozen under European Union sanctions to Ukraine.
The legal framework will come by the end of January after the government in Tallinn tasked ministries in late December to come up with a plan for asset seizures, Mihkel Tamm, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said on Monday.
Programming Note…
