Jan 12: Buonasera Mag
Day 323: Soledar Gerasimov RUconscripts ruble POL EUelectricity Kazak NJ Wagner NATO A&Ps-Mitcha Nauseda Tsai Ing-wen Talalay Scarr Yehtsov Kirichenko David RadPod EUBarometre
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Donetsk Oblast Governor denies Russia captured Soledar, claims Ukraine 'fighting for every centimeter.' Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko claimed that the fight was unfolding in the western and northern parts of the town, including inside the salt mine. No evacuation or humanitarian aid convoys have been allowed to enter Soledar since Jan. 6 for safety reasons, Kyrylenko said.
Satellite imagery shows magnitude of destruction in Soledar. New images published by U.S. satellite imagery company Maxar from after Jan. 10 reveal apartment buildings in Soledar that have been completely destroyed as Russia lays siege to the town.
Russia appoints Gerasimov in place of Surovikin as overall commander of war against Ukraine. Russia’s defense ministry cited “an expansion of the scale of the tasks being solved” and “the need to organize closer interaction between the branches of troops” as the reasons for the change in leadership.
All potential conscripts banned from leaving Russia. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has banned all potential conscripts from leaving the country in all directions since Jan. 9. The Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later denied the report.
Reuters: Putin has publicly berated his trade and industry minister, Denis Manturov, for the absence of aircraft contracts. The reprimand comes after Manturov said he would provide 175 billion roubles ($2.56 billion) to state airline Aeroflot to lease aircraft. Speaking at a televised meeting with officials, Putin told Manturov to speed up the process of aircraft orders, saying that the contracts should be completed within a month.
In the first quarter, the Bank of Russia plans to start developing a cross-border settlement model using the digital ruble. The presentation of the Central Bank presents two models that can be taken as the basic version. True, market participants believe that the very introduction of cross-border settlements using the digital currency of central banks is a matter of the distant future and depends not only on technology, but also on the geopolitical situation.
Russian auto industry is in a world of hurt. High-profile western auto makers simply left the market, not wanting to transact in a country that invades its neighbor for no reason and can simply appropriate their assets whenever it wants.
Belarus may have created Wagner-like private military company. Called Gardservis, the security service company has "significantly increased" the number of employees and is preparing to participate in military operations, according to Valeriy Sakhashchyk, defense and security representative of the leader of the Belarus opposition in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Ukraine's partners must "stop holding themselves back" with weapons deliveries. "I don't think the Russians will actually be able to escalate," ex-U.S. Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges said, "and that's why we need to stop holding back." “I hope for tanks, ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, Grey Eagle and Reaper drones, and F-16 fighter aircraft. But there is no guarantee."
Ukraine started importing small volumes of electricity from EU. Since the beginning of 2023, Ukraine has started to import electricity from the European Union in small volumes, according to Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko. The ministry expects to increase the volumes.
Poland to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Polish President Andrzej Duda made the announcement at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv on Jan. 11 as part of the “Lublin Triangle” format, the regional partnership established by the three in July 2020. UK reveals plan to send tanks to Ukraine.
10 Norway-donated bridges to be installed in liberated parts of Ukraine. Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure reported on Jan. 11 that Norway had sent 10 bridges worth over $3 million to Ukraine in December.
Stollenberg: NATO should step up support for Ukraine amid battle of Soledar. “This shows once again the bravery of Ukrainian forces as they fight to defend their homeland. It also shows how vital it is that we step up our military support to Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told a news conference.
The European Council has reached an agreement on the proposed Anti-Money Laundering Regulation and the new Sixth Anti-Money Laundering Directive. Changes include stricter monitoring of traders in precious materials and cultural goods worth at least €10K
Politico: “Scholz’s spokesperson said Wednesday that plans by London to deliver British-made Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine won’t change the position of the German government, which has so far rejected growing calls for Berlin to hand powerful German Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, two German officials said that Scholz’s position depended heavily on U.S. President Joe Biden, with whom the chancellor already closely coordinated when issuing a joint statement last week announcing the joint delivery of German and American infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.”
US, allies preparing new sanctions on Russian oil. The United States and its allies are preparing the latest round of sanctions, this time looking to cap the sales prices of Russian exports of refined petroleum products, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing two unnamed people familiar with the matter.
Kazakhstan's Constitutional Court has annulled the law on the first president and leader of the nation (elbasy), depriving former authoritarian President Nursultan Nazarbaev of lifetime benefits and privileges. The court said on January 11 that the move was made at the request of lawmakers and in accordance with a national June 2022 referendum that removed Nazarbaev's name from the constitution and approved the cancellation of his status as "elbasy."
New Jersey has become the first state in the country to require public schools to teach media literacy to K-12 students as a way to combat misinformation, under a bill signed Wednesday by Gov. Phil Murphy.
Ihor Talalay: three months of “filtration” in torture chambers of occupied Donetsk Region- Media Initiative for Human Rights
Trip to Mariupol: things didn’t go as planned
In early March, Ihor Talalay was helping people evacuate from Kharkiv. He joined an improvised volunteer convoy in his old jalopy of a car, Lada 2111, in harsh weather alternating between snow and rain. He delivered humanitarian aid from Dnipro and returned with evacuees. Volunteers evacuated more than 400 citizens of Kharkiv in just one week.
Soon the need for evacuation from Kharkiv became less pressing as remaining locals became less willing to leave. So Ihor began looking for other ways he could help. He met volunteers who were helping evacuees from Mariupol and joined them. The first trip was planned for the morning of March 18.
“But things didn’t go as planned from the outset,” says Ihor, adding: “We set out late: not at five a.m. as we intended to, but after seven a.m. because the coordinator overslept. My engine started to misfire between Dnipro and Zaporizhia. It ‘fixed itself’ in Zaporizhia. There I joined the convoy, which wasn’t too organized, and this made me uneasy.”
Still, the young man did not mind the complications en route: there were people waiting in Mariupol, hoping to evacuate that day.
Sergei Yezhov, Resort landing: how the children of Russian security forces have fun abroad during the war- The Insider
The children of sanctioned officials, security officials and parliamentarians continue to visit NATO and EU countries, The Insider found out. Dubai, Bali, the Maldives and the Seychelles are also popular holiday destinations for travelers whose fathers are at war with Ukraine.
Naryshkin's daughter in NATO countries and not only
“The masks have been dropped, and it is obvious to us that the NATO bloc is waging a hybrid war against both Russia and our ally, the Republic of Belarus,” said Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, this summer. That same summer, his daughter Veronika went on vacation to Turkey, a NATO country.
Naryshkin's daughter's Instagram is closed to outsiders, but The Insider discovered the account of her closest friend Victoria Kosolapova - by the way, the daughter of Alexei Kosolapov, a famous former football player of Moscow Lokomotiv and the Russian national team.
David Kirichenko, NAFO’s Fellas Must Evolve- CEPA
There was a time when a deep defeatism infected parts of the Western world, when Russian disinformation spread like a plague, and political leaders at times looked as helpless as the town elders of Hamlyn faced with a rat infestation.
Since the start of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine in February, something has changed. A piper has appeared from the recesses of social media with the advent of the North Atlantic Fellas Organization (NAFO.) But while this openly pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO, and anti-Russian organization of big social media names, and its ordinary foot soldiers, has carried the flag for an insurgent resistance to authoritarian propaganda, it now needs to evolve. Quickly.
In order to avoid fizzling out and losing momentum, the NAFO community — easily identifiable through its use of cartoon Shiba Inu dogs — must gather and establish some sort of structure and leadership to continue to evolve.
Julia Davis, Russians Fear They’ll Soon Be Starving ‘Like North Koreans’ The Daily Beast
Russia rang in the new year with gaudy excess, patriotic fervor and echoes of a Soviet past. In studios filled with visiting servicemen, brought in from the front lines to film the New Year’s extravaganza, hosts and performers toasted victory and mocked the West for the side effects of Russian sanctions. Comedian Yevgeny Petrosyan cheered for the troops, assuring them that the entire country was behind them. He taunted Ukraine and its Western allies: "Like it or not, Russia is enlarging!"
Noisy bravado couldn’t hide the fact that no one was drinking from the champagne glasses seemingly filled with sparkling water, or the blank stares on the faces of the visiting troops. One of the hosts, sports commentator Dmitry Guberniev, compared life to a biathlon—a grueling cross-country ski race with rifle shooting—and surmised: “If you’re having a hard time, then the finish line is near and victory is close!”
Holiday cheer notwithstanding, even Russian propagandists realize that hard times are only starting and attempts to summon a ghost of the Soviet past are directly related to a starkly different way of life that awaits the average Russian. On Wednesday, host of Solovyov Live Sergey Mardan struggled to contain his feelings about “the grinning and glee on the federal channels,” which continued even after the news of a HIMARS strike that killed dozens of Russian troops in Makiivka. Mardan raged: “What happened in Makiivka is a tragedy! A real tragedy! There didn’t have to be a phone call from the top for them to figure out that TV programming should be changed to something that is more fitting. Instead of vulgar anecdotes, put on any old Soviet movie.”
Initiatives…
Programming Note…
Radicalized Pod’s first full episode of the new year features an incredible interview with Keir on his new book which shows how Russia wages war on the West and how there’s no frontline and no rear area.