Jan 13: E-Stories
Day688 RUstrikes Memorial CombatSit Budanov BehindLines InRussia Putina Allies Houthis A&P Khara ISW UKDef CDS Kandelaki Sonin Azov Sunak Revishvili Fallon Avdeeva Speck TimesRad
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Note to readers: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is still on-going even if it has dropped off the radar for most media outlets.
Stories we’re following…
Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: Russian troops shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 116 towns and villages and 43 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. Three people were reported killed and 19 people were wounded.
Combat Situation Update
"Ukrainian forces recaptured half a kilometer of territory near Verbove, Zaporizhzhia region," mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov reports. This specific area has been the battleground since August 2023, where the AFU has not yet succeeded in forcing a real breakthrough.
Russia has no sufficient force amassed to attack Kharkiv - administration chief. Russian invasion forces have no sufficient groping to attempt an offensive operation toward Kharkiv from the northern direction while their force currently deployed.
CDS: Due to cold weather, Russian forces are using less ammunition, and the intensity of infantry battles has decreased on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions.
Kupyansk direction, positional battles took place in the areas of Synkivka, east of Terny, near Torske, and in the vicinity of Serebryansk Forest and Vesele.
Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut amid ongoing positional battles near Vesele, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka direction, positional battles persisted in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, in the industrial zone, near Severne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Pobeda. Russian forces advanced up to 100 meters near the Avdiivka water treatment facilities, near Ocheretyne, northeast of Novomykhailivka, where they captured a Ukrainian position, near Heorhiivka, and northwest of Solodke.
CDS Report on the Russian Black Sea Fleet:
Ukrainian strikes on assets of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) have forced Russian naval forces to change their operational models and led the BSF to withdraw some ships from its main base in the occupied Sevastopol in western Crimea. Ukrainian strikes on BSF assets have also successfully contributed to the civilian use of the Black Sea grain corridor in Ukraine, as international support for this corridor continues to grow despite Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative and military threats against it. The Kremlin might consider the operation under a false flag in Transnistria as an alternative method to dissuade countries from engaging in the Ukrainian grain corridor, notwithstanding Russia's diminished presence in the western part of the Black Sea.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian forces in Ukraine currently consist of 462,000 military and 35,000 National Guard troops, responsible for the functioning of the occupation regime. This number of troops allows the Russians to carry out rotation - to withdraw units and subdivisions and bring them to the front line.
ISW: Russian forces' operational rotations will likely sustain offensive tempo in eastern Ukraine. Russia's capacity for operational rotations is expected to sustain the pace of localized offensives in eastern Ukraine in the short term, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest update on Jan. 11.
UK Defense Ministry: Electronic warfare shortage complicating Russia’s defense against Ukrainian drones in Kherson Oblast. Russia has faced difficulties in countering Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drones during combat on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, likely due to a shortage of electronic warfare capability in the area, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Jan. 12.
Budanov: Drones, mines constrain both Ukrainian and Russian offensives. The intensity of drone use and minefields "made it impossible" for both Russia and Ukraine to conduct offensive operations last year, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with Le Monde published on Jan. 11.
Military intelligence: Russia lacks some modern weapon parts due to sanctions.
"They (Russia) face several restrictions and sanctions. They (sanctions) create additional complications when it comes to modern optics, electronics, and microchips, which is what the enemy lacks," Military Intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on air.
Noel Report: Here you go, terror from left to right. Iranian, North Korea and Russian 122-mm shells, used by Russia in Ukraine.
ISW: Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Kremlin is using the myths of the so-called "Great Patriotic War" to draw imaginary parallels with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin's attempts to use the myths of the so-called "Great Patriotic War" (as the Russians call WWII, primarily the conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany – ed.) to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine contradict the current level of mobilisation in Russia and the rhetorical attempts of Russian President Vladimir Putin to assure Russians that the war will not have long-term internal consequences.
Analysts note that Kartapolov tried to expand the false analogy between the struggle of the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany and the unprovoked invasion of Russia in Ukraine, arguing that Russia is now, figuratively speaking, somewhere in December 1943 and going into 1944.
It is recalled that the Soviet military launched a series of successful offensive operations after a defensive victory in the battle of Kursk in July 1943 and by December 1943 reached the banks of the Dnipro river and Kyiv in Ukraine.
Kartapolov explained his logic by arguing that the Ukrainian troops failed in the summer of 2023 in a counterattack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, just as Nazi Germany suffered losses in battles in 1943.
The report concluded that Kartapolov's analogy makes little sense, especially given the fact that Russian forces have made no notable gains in recent months.
A Russian naval base in Abkhazia, a territory occupied by Russian forces in Georgia, may become operational in 2024, the Russian state news agency RIA quoted Abkhazia’s security council as saying on Friday.
Russian and Abkhazian authorities agreed in October that Russia could open a permanent naval base in the town of Ochamchire, Reuters reported.
RIA quoted the secretary of Abkhazia’s security council, Sergei Shamba, as saying that construction of the base had not yet begun, but that “its operation may begin this year”.
A base in Ochamchire, a town of 5,000 people near Abkhazia’s closed frontier with Georgia, would provide a new, more secure harbour for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet after its bases in Crimea came under repeated, damaging attack by Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of that country.
Behind the Lines
Ukraine gives “unprecedented” access to information on donated weapons - Pentagon. The Ukrainian side provided American partners with full information for the accounting and inventory of weapons donated to the country as security.
Me: This is smart. The Ukrainians are getting ahead of the narrative, which will probably be prevalent in the U.S election, about accountability on Ukraine’s behalf on weapons delivery from the U.S. As readers know, GOPers, like Taylor Green and her ilk, have said that Ukraine should not receive arms because they don’t know what the Ukrainians are doing with them. Ridiculous.
US sanctions director of Russian military transport company. The U.S. has sanctioned Vladimir Mikheychik, who heads the Russian state-owned airline 224th Flight Unit, the Treasury Department announced on Jan. 11. The company belongs to the Russian Defense Ministry, and its services are frequently used by the Russian Presidential Administration.
Military: Kremlin using coal subsidies to force Russian passports on residents in occupied Kherson Oblast. Moscow-installed illegal occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are offering coal subsidies for heating purposes, but only to those residents who became Russian citizens, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported.
Authorities in Russian border city of Belgorod fortify bus stops with sandbags and concrete blocks to protect residents from shelling attacks.
Moldova denies claim from Transnistria of training Ukrainian soldiers to commit 'terrorist actions.' Earlier on Jan. 12, self-proclaimed authorities in the Russian-backed region of Transnistria released a statement accusing Moldova of training more than 60 people, including Ukrainian soldiers, to "organize terrorist actions" on Transnistrian territory.
Georgian Orthodox Church calls for religious icon featuring Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin in Tbilisi cathedral to be changed. Giorgi Kandelaki posted this video on January 6 with a comment:
“An icon to none other but Joseph Stalin in the of the Holy Trinity Cathedral in Tbilisi. Russia is scoring solid success as both EU and US fail to recognize the central role of weaponization of memory in Russia's information warfare agenda and that of Stalin in particular.”
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin doing all he can to hide monumental losses in Ukraine. The Russian Pension Fund sent a letter to employees of its regional offices asking them not to upload info about welfare payments for those fighting in Ukraine.
Russia’s Central Election Commission plans not to allow politician Boris Nadezhin, who was previously reported to be one of the Kremlin’s approved candidates, to participate in the upcoming presidential election due to his recent statements against the war in Ukraine, according to sources close to the Putin administration who spoke to the independent outlet Verstka.
Russia’s federal budget deficit in 2023 exceeded three billion rubles for the second year in a row and only the third time in its modern history (including 2020, when the government spent an unprecedented amount on pandemic recovery measures), according to preliminary data published by the Finance Ministry.
Message from Ukrainian representative at the UN, Sergiy Klyslytsya to his Russian counterpart who is so concerned with Ukrainian well-being:
"And since Putin's emissary in this room claims to be aware of the content circulating on Ukrainian social media, I recommend that he watch from his warm and cosy nest in Manhattan the messages being spread by the people of his own capital and its suburbs, who are now literally living in apartments covered in layers of ice and burning wood in the streets to survive."
Russian tourists reportedly going on a skiing trip to North Korea will be the first international travellers to visit the country since its borders closed in 2020 amid the global pandemic lockdown.
The report, published on Wednesday by the Russian state-run Tass news agency, underscores deepening co-operation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
It also follows the meeting last September between the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, at a cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East, AP reported.
Dmitry Medvedev posted on Telegram on Friday that deployment of any British military contingent in Ukraine would be a declaration of war against Russia.
Responding to British prime ,inister Rishi Sunak’s visit to Kyiv, Medvedev asked how the western public would react if Sunak’s delegation came under fire from cluster munitions, as he said had happened to the southern Russian city of Belgorod.
Me: Interesting. Medvedev is reacting to the comments made by some British former military leadership that has begun to talk about intervening directly in Ukraine if the situation there gets critical. It coincides with Sunak’s visit to Kyiv as a signal that Sunak is under Russia’s watchful eye. The Russian propaganda machine knows British citizens will be watching Sunak’s visit, and this is one way to try to influence British citizens, mainly on the left.
This is Putin’s daughter, Maria Vorontsova, in a rare interview. Her main message is that human life is a "supreme value" for Russian society. What she is saying is truly ridiculous, but the timing is important: her father has probably sent by her father to calm the rising criticisms against the Russian leadership. Many Russians are freezing in numerous regions across Russia due to infrastructure issues and a lack of heating. Notice the colours: light blue which is normally used to calm people down. She also looks like she’s in a hospital waiting room.
Bloomberg: Russia preparing legal defense to slow, prevent seizure of frozen assets. Russia is pursuing legal means, including obtaining representation from international law firms, to stymie efforts by the U.S. and its allies to seize frozen Russian assets, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 12, citing unnamed sources.
Russian propagandists are upset that the pro-Russian event in Modena has been cancelled. You’ll remember the information in E-Stories about an event that was supposed to take place in Modena and Lucca that centred around the “Reconstruction of Mariupol”, featuring Alexandr Dugin as the main guest. Italian activists worked to get these events cancelled through an online campaign.
Unfortunately, the events are part of a larger on-going operation in Italy: the Putin Tour. There are numerous events that are still slated from Italy’s north to Sicily. What must be investigated is how the Vento dell’Est Association and their affiliates are able to fund this work.
Allied Support
Demining Coalition meets in Vilnius to discuss Ukraine’s needs, partners’ contribution. A Demining Coalition led by Lithuania in support of Ukraine met Thursday in Vilnius to discuss Kyiv's needs and possible contributions from partners.
The British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, arrived in Kyiv on Jan 12 morning. He and Zelensky signed an agreement on security guarantees. Britain will also provide Ukraine with a £2.5 billion aid package that includes long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition & naval security.
President Zelensky evening message on the day’s events:
This day has already entered the history of our country: today we have an agreement with Great Britain, a security agreement, on which we worked for a long time. This is the first bilateral agreement that implements the basic agreement of the "Big Seven" regarding the security of Ukraine, our defense, and our secure growth. Thank you to Great Britain and personally to Prime Minister Sunak for your leadership and leadership.
And, of course, I want to thank all our friends in the Baltic States - the three visits were very productive. Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia. There are weapon solutions for our warriors. Regarding the economic support of Ukraine. Supporting our relations with the European Union, our movement in NATO.
Thanks to everyone in the world who helps! Thank you to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! I am proud of our people! It is thanks to the strength of our people that world leaders pay attention to Ukraine and want to see Ukraine as their partner.
We need to do better: Russia, with the help of other countries, successfully circumvents sanctions for the production of weapons. A U.S.-Ukrainian research team found that Russian imports of sanctioned battlefield goods totaled nearly $9 billion from Januaryto October 2023.
U.S. imposes sanctions over North Korea’s missile supplies to Russia. The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions against three Russian entities and an individual involved in the transfer and testing of North Korean ballistic.
The US has started negotiations with Ukraine regarding security guarantees. In addition to the security assistance, it has already provided to protect against Russian missiles and drones. The US has made broad strategic commitments to Ukraine's NATO membership.
European Commission approves Romanian 126 million euro fund to support Danube ports impacted by war. The fund will be dispersed in grants of up to 10 million euros for companies willing to invest in increasing their storage capacity in the region.
Ecuador and The US concluded an agreement on the exchange of Soviet weapons worth $200 million for modern equipment. The deal should be completed by the end of this month. Ecuador doesn't know for which purpose the US is receiving them.. could be Ukraine.
Swiss Foreign Ministry: Ukraine Peace Formula meeting to take place in Davos. Davos will host the fourth Ukraine Peace Formula meeting on Jan. 14, where over 80 delegations are expected to participate, Switzerland’s Foreign Ministry announced on Jan 11.
Giorgi Revishvili: Kyrylo Budanov's interview with Le Monde
Russian missile attacks stem from the desire to declare 2023 "victorious". The Russians did not have real military successes.
Russian missiles have a number of shortcomings. They often miss targets. We immediately responded to their missile attacks, targeting military objects.
If compared with past years, from the end of the summer of 2023, we observed an increase in the number of ammunition produced by Russia. At the same time, we noticed a decrease in the quality of these shells.
The intensive use of drones on both sides made it impossible for both Russia and Ukraine to conduct offensive operations. Another factor is the density of minefields, which have not been seen since World War II.
We know the solution for drones - electronic countermeasures. Mines require specialized equipment.
The northern part of the Black Sea is under the control of Ukraine, as are the gas production platforms. Maritime export corridors, which are very important to our economy, are functioning again, despite the risks.
We regularly attack the enemy's military fleet and port facilities, so the Russians had to rush everything to the southeast. They are trying to create a naval base in Ochamchire on the occupied territory of Georgia.
In 2023, the first Ukrainian landings on the temporarily occupied Crimea happened, although some considered them impossible. This gives hope - especially to Ukrainians on the peninsula, who have been living under Russian occupation for 10 years, and many of them have already begun to give up.
Everyone thought that Moscow had a strong army, but a weak economy. It turned out to be the opposite. The army is weak. Russian economy may be weak, but the country is by no means starving. At this rate, it can last quite a long time.
Current Western sanctions are not enough. They should affect the main sectors of the Russian economy: energy, metallurgy and the financial system.
More shells and artillery systems are needed. It is not only about modern technologies. We are interested in everything, including old systems that are no longer in use. The issue of quantity is significant.
Those who think abroad that they are "tired" of Ukraine will have to take care of the Muscovites when they come to occupy their own territories.
The aggressor state of Russia is waging war not only against Ukraine. It is waging a war against NATO, as their propaganda claims from the very beginning.
China has a problem:
Speaking of China:
A coalition of US/UK with support of The Netherlands, Bahrain, Australia and Canada launched joint strikes in Yemen. The news of imminent attacks were released online just before midnight Jan 11. US/UK bombed 60 targets at 16 Iranian-backed Houthi locations, including command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems. Over a 100 guided missiles were used.
"We attacked about 10 Houthi targets in Yemen. Drone production centers and weapons warehouses were hit," a Pentagon representative said, confirming the attacks.
Several explosions were reported in Sana'a, Al Hudaydah and Taizz. Al Arabiya reports that over 10 targets were hit. Among them is Sana'a airport.
In retaliation, Houthi's have launched a massive launch of surface-to-surface missiles, Al Mayadeen reports. Member of the Political Bureau of Ansar Allah, Ali Al-Qahum said they will respond forcefully to the American-British battleships in the Red Sea.
Russia calls urgent UN Security meeting over Yemen strikes. Russia requested an emergency meeting of the UN security council on Jan. 12 after the U.S. and U.K. launched strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen, RIA Novosti reported, citing Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
