Jan 15: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian drone injures 4 firefighters in Kherson Oblast. A Russian suicide drone struck a fire station and injured four firefighters in the village of Stanislav in Kherson Oblast, regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on his Telegram account on Jan. 14.
Air Force: Ukraine downs 8 Russian missiles overnight, electronic countermeasures defend against 20 other weapons. Ukrainian air defenses shot down eight missiles launched by Russia overnight and interrupted the trajectories of over 20 other weapons using electromagnetic countermeasures, the Air Force reported on Jan. 13.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have documented 626 cases of Russia's use of munitions with poisonous chemical substances, with 51 incidents occurring in January alone. The trend indicates a rising frequency, with up to 10 cases of chemical substance use reported daily, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Welcome home: a Ukrainian soldier hugs his Mom. I don’t think we understand what it means to have a family member on the front lines in combat. Some may think this is Ukrainian propaganda. It’s part of it. These videos give other families hope that their loved ones will return.
RBC Ukraine claims it can confirm (from sources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces) that a Russian A-50 AWACS has been shot down, as well as the damage/downing of a IL-22M. This is a super expensive spy plane—$500 million.
"Reportedly, the A-50 was shot down immediately after it was on duty in the vicinity of Kyrylivka around 21:10-21:15 on January 14. The A-50 disappeared from the radar and stopped responding to tactical aviation requests, and later a pilot of a Su-30 Russian Air Force aircraft detected the fire and crash of an unidentified aircraft.
The Il-22M11 was on duty in the area of Strilkove and was eventually shot down along the coast of the Sea of Azov at around 9 p.m. on January 14. After being hit, the plane planned to land in Anapa, requested evacuation, an ambulance and a fire truck."
Combat Situation Update
General Staff: Ukraine’s Air Force strikes 11 Russian troops' clusters. Ukraine's Air Force conducted targeted strikes on 11 clusters of Russian personnel, ammunition, and military equipment, according to a morning update from the General Staff published on Jan. 14.
A note on Russian forces in Avdiivka: In the third month of the Russian offensive in Avdiivka, the gains are NULL. The Russian army has lost more than 13,000 men and over 220 combat vehicles.
CDS Report: situation on the ground
Avdiivka direction: the Ukrainian Defense Forces keep holding back the occupying forces that persist in attempts to encircle Avdiivka. Ukrainian troops steadfastly maintain the defense, inflicting losses on the enemy forces.
Maryinka direction: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy in the area of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 26 attacks.
Shakhtarsk direction: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks south of Zolota Nyva and west of Staromayorske.
Zaporizhzhia direction: they repelled 9 Russian attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.
Kherson direction: the Ukrainian Defense Forces persist in expanding their bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. During the past 24 hours, the adversary conducted 9 unsuccessful assault attempts.
The Russians established another defensive line in the area of Crimean isthmuses (from the Kherson direction), consisting of at least two fortified positions.
The command of the enemy's “West” operational grouping is unable to summarize and disseminate the experience of combat operations, particularly the unsuccessful assaults near Avdiivka in October 2023. This results in a straightforward tactical approach on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, characterized by poorly planned and ineffective frontal attacks of mechanized units against well-fortified positions with an advance through open terrain.
In the Belgorod Oblast (Russia), there is insufficient concentration of Russian forces to conduct an offensive along the international border with Ukraine. The recent deployment of several Russian "Storm-Z" units to Belgorod Oblast should be viewed as demonstrative actions.
The inconsistency of the enemy's actions in the Bakhmut direction indicates that the Russian command has no clear goal in the area. The only clearly expressed aspiration is to try to break through to Chasiv Yar, making it possible to create a flanking threat to the Ukrainian grouping south of Bakhmut.
The enemy is incurring high losses among recruited foreigners and migrants fighting on the Tavria direction (Avdiivka, along the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast) due to poor training.
Over the past day, the enemy has significantly reduced the intensity of shelling on the eastern bank in Kherson Oblast.
ISW: Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities growing, taking down Russian missiles. Ukraine's use of active electronic countermeasures to disable 20 Russian missiles may be “an inflection in Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities," the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its daily Ukraine update on Jan. 13.
"Russian missiles are not what they used to be. Sanctions may be affecting them as their missiles already have a worse manufacturing quality. The information is not 100%, but there are certain aspects that indicate this," Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said. He also noted the effective work of the electronic defense system, which allowed to increase the number of missiles launched towards Ukraine that did not reach the targets.
This is s video of Ukrainian medics of 47th Mechanized Brigade evacuating a wounded soldier. It’s incredible how the medics work under these conditions. Warning: the footage may be disturbing.
Zaluzhnyi met with the brigade commanders in the Kherson Region. Rewarded Ukrainian soldiers and talked to the command about the situation at the front. He also met with the commander of the Naval Forces to work out the situation in the Black Sea.
"Our combat work to consolidate and expand the bridgehead continues in Krynky, and the enemy is trying to knock out our units. There is no longer a single surviving house, the artillery of both sides is working. In addition, the enemy bombarded this region very powerfully," spokeswoman Humenyuk said. This is what the left bank of the Dnipro at Krynky looks like.
Behind the Lines
As of January 2024, the Russian occupiers have unlawfully detained 204 individuals in Crimea, including 123 Crimean Tatars. Among them, 33 are under arrest (including 22 Crimean Tatars), 150 are imprisoned (including 100 Crimean Tatars), and 21 are without a specific status, Tamila Tasheva, the President’s Representative to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, said.
U.S. and Romania on Black Sea security.
Minister urges Ukrainians to create drones for army at home. Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov on Jan. 13 urged Ukrainians to create drones for the military at home as part of the "People's Drone" project. Participants can take a free engineering course to teach themselves how to assemble a seven-inch FPV (first-person-view) drone at home.
Exactly a year ago, Russian troops launched a missile attack on a nine-story residential building in the Dnieper. Two entrances of the house were destroyed, 46 people were killed and more than 80 were injured. On the anniversary, Dnieper residents brought flowers and candles to the ruins of the house.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began…many of museums have been plundered, too. The Ukrainian Ministry of Culture estimates that over 480,000 works of art have fallen into Russian hands. At least 38 museums, home to nearly 1.5 million works of art, have been damaged or destroyed.
According to the commander of the Air Force, Mykola Oleschuk, various jet types are being considered that will help strengthen Ukraine's combat aviation.
“F-16 remains the main priority, but it is possible that the combat capabilities of the Su-24M bombers will be strengthened by the Mirage-2000D, and the Su-25 by the A-10 Thunderbolt II,” he emphasized.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Moscow Times Russian Service: Almost 400 residential buildings and social institutions in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, were left without heat due to an accident at the Novomoskovsk City Thermal Power Plant (GRES). The city administration reported this .
According to officials, the cause of the incident was a transformer failure. Specialists are working at the scene, but so far they have not been able to restore normal operation of the power plant. At the same time, the temperature in the city continues to fall and currently stands at -13 degrees Celsius.
The head of Novomoskovsk, Ruslan Butov, emphasized that in 372 apartment buildings, 16 kindergartens, 10 schools and a hospital, “the coolant supply temperature has been reduced.” In connection with what happened, all possible forces and means were mobilized to eliminate the accident.
Me: Why is this important? There are a lot of these ‘accidents’ happening at the moment. When the weather is great, no one pays attention to the lack of infrastructure or poor maintenance. The problems Russia must face due to having invested in the war instead of heating for its citizens or other services is ever present now. Will this make a difference? No. The only way this will make a difference is if the little local or regional lord isn’t getting his cut. Then they may rebel.
Rybar: North Korean ballistic missile launch or a new round of tension on the Korean Peninsula
At 14.55, an unidentified type of ballistic missile was launched from the vicinity of Pyongyang in the DPRK. The missile travelled a distance of more than 500 km and fell in the Sea of Japan.
North Korea is forging closer ties with Moscow. Foreign minister Choe Son-hui will visit Russia from Monday to Wednesday at the invitation of her counterpart Sergei Lavrov, the North’s KCNA news agency said.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: pundits predicted a long war, because Russia's war plans are "very ambitious." They anticipate that Moscow will benefit from "Western tiredness of Ukraine" and Trump's potential re-election.
Please see previous E-Stories posts for stories about the struggles of the pharmaceutical and health care system in Russia since it unleashed its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
SOTA: Maria Andreeva, a participant in the movement of wives of mobilized “The Way Home”, was detained in Moscow. Women traditionally come out with bouquets to the eternal flame - as a symbol of the fact that war always means the death of people. The wives of those mobilized come out to the protest wearing white scarves: this is how the wives of the Argentine military used to go out to protest, demanding the return of their husbands home. Video: SOTAvision.
Window on Eurasia: Measured by GDP Per Capita, Russia Falls Behind Not Just Baltic Countries but Two Other Former Soviet Republics as Well.
From the beginning of the post-Soviet period, Russia’s GDP per capita lagged behind the GDP per capita of the three formerly occupied Baltic republics, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That remains true. The GDP per capita for Russia is currently 13,320 US dollars; that for the Baltic countries, 33, 020, 26,950 and 31,120 dollars respectively.
But another figure from the International Monetary Fund is. It shows that for the first time, despite all the talk about Russia’s economic success, the per capita GDP in that country has fallen behind two of the former Soviet republics, although it continues to lead nine of them by significant amounts (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/101458).
The two where the GDP per capita figures are higher than in the Russian Federation are Turkmenistan, whose GDP per capita is now 14,180 US dollars, and Kazakhstan, where that statistic amounts to 14,400. The others range behind Russia from a low of 1,270 per capita in Tajikistan to 9,090 per capita in Armenia.
Allied Support
Biden: Republicans will have 'a lot to pay for' if they don't pass Ukraine aid. U.S. President Joe Biden said during a press briefing on Jan. 13 that Republicans will have "an awful lot to pay for" if they don't help pass military aid for Ukraine.
Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked a supplemental funding bill that included $61 billion in aid for Ukraine in a procedural vote held on Dec. 6, insisting that any further military aid must include major significant domestic border changes.
Denmark will allocate a new aid package to Ukraine in the amount of more than 21 million dollars for the restoration of the southern Ukrainian city of Nikolaev. The assistance package, among other things, includes projects for demining agricultural land and reconstructing the dormitory of the Nikolaev State Agrarian University.
“Denmark is one of our most committed partners in the recovery process. In the spring of 2023, the country took patronage over Nikolaev and the Nikolaev region. Since then, we have already made progress in restoring the city - most of the projects of previous aid packages have either already been completed or are moving forward successfully,” said Alexander Kubrakov, Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine.
Ukraine pushed ahead with its peace formula to end nearly two years of war with Russia with a meeting of national security advisers from around the world in Davos on Sunday.
President Zelensky, who is scheduled to address the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos later in the week, was not in the opening morning session, which included 81 participants from countries and international organisations.
He was represented by his chief of staff Andriy Yermak at Sunday’s talks, which were also attended by the US special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, Penny Pritzker, as well as James O’Brien, the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. National security adviser Jake Sullivan and secretary of state Antony Blinken are both expected to address the WEF, which officially starts on Monday evening, Reuters reports.
On the sidelines of the Peace Formula meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Ukraine began bilateral negotiations with the State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania on the conclusion of a bilateral security agreement.
The weekly “Stand with Ukraine” rally outside Sydney’s town hall on Sunday called for Australia to send 45 Taipan helicopters it no longer uses to Ukraine.
Ukraine wants Australia’s decommissioned Taipan helicopters but they are reportedly being scrapped. In September last year, the Australian Army’s MRH-90 helicopters were retired 14-months earlier than scheduled, after a crash in Queensland killed four defence personnel during a training exercise two months earlier.
Ukraine made an official request for the MRH-90’s on December 19, 2023, despite the aircraft’s safety and operational concerns.
“Our assessment of risk is different. We’re at war,” Anton Bogdanovych, who helped organise a rally of Ukrainian supporters in Sydney on Sunday, told Australia’s ABC news.
Giorgi Revishvili: UK support to Ukraine
It is a historic agreement on security cooperation signed by Sunak and Zelensky today [Jan 13] in Kyiv. The agreement is significant for both practical and political reasons, especially when Republican lawmakers are blocking a $60 billion package to Ukraine.
The UK will continue provision of security assistance and modern military equipment, across the land, air and sea, space and cyber domains – prioritising air defence, artillery and long-range firepower, armoured vehicles, and other key capabilities as required, such as combat air, and by promoting increased interoperability with Euro-Atlantic partners. The UK will jointly lead the Maritime Security Capability Coalition and will make significant contribution to Ukraine’s maritime fleet development.
The Maritime Capability Coalition aims to support Ukraine to become a net contributor to maritime security across the Black Sea and Azov Sea out to 2035 and beyond.
The UK and Ukraine will work to transform Ukraine’s defence industry into a powerful asset for Ukrainian and Euro-Atlantic security, enabling Ukraine to restore its territorial integrity, acting as a major driver in economic recovery and contributing to effective deterrence of future aggression.
The UK will provide support for enhancing Ukraine's critical infrastructure protection, leveling up cyber capabilities and deepen cooperation on combating Russian disinformation and propaganda.
Konstantin Eggert remembers: I remember, admire and thank you! Vilnius, January 13, 1991. The Lithuanians did it. In Russia we have to finish what we started then. Will it work?
CNN: Trump holds wide lead over GOP field ahead of Iowa caucuses, poll finds
Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses found.
Ros Atkin, at the BBC, and his comments on the up-coming U.S. presidential election:
What I’m reading…
If anyone is interested in the some of the books or articles I’m currently reading, drop me a comment or line and I’ll put it in the post.
Yes, I'm curious what you're reading!