Jan 19: Catching up with China
With Reid Standish, CEPA and Tatlow
Catching up
Hop over the Scott Lucas’s EA Worldview for the latest up-dates about Ukraine, the EU, US, and the Middle East.
Reid Standish, What 2023 Means For China- China Monitor/RFE-RL
After a 2022 that brought upheaval for Beijing, China is looking to shore up its strategic flank in Eurasia and focus on economic growth at home. But doing so is easier said than done.
Finding Perspective: With Chinese leader Xi Jinping's international isolation over and the Communist Party abandoning its COVID-zero policies, a series of leaders were welcomed in Beijing recently, including Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov.
As I wrote here, the visit was important, as Turkmenistan is one of China's leading providers of natural gas, but it's a dynamic leaning increasingly in Beijing's favor.
China has an ever-expanding appetite for energy, but it has courted a diverse set of suppliers across the world. The reclusive Central Asian country, meanwhile, is faced with a deepening dependence on China as its main market, which looks set to continue well into the future.
Why It Matters: China's growing gravity across Eurasia was a major theme of 2022 and that will carry through into the coming year. But much of this expanded influence was from Russia's comparative decline due to fallout from its invasion of Ukraine.
Across Central Asia, governments are walking a tightrope over how to distance and insulate themselves from Russia, without provoking any blowback. This makes China, which is already an economic force in the region, appealing because of its close ties to Moscow.
But what other unexpected turns could 2023 bring? And how might Beijing, especially amid reports that Xi is looking to reset many of its foreign and economic policies, try to adapt?
Looking deeper in 2023, this complicated balancing act will continue to take shape. One interesting thing to watch will be how Beijing manages to showcase itself as a leader to Central Asian states and not hasten any more feelings in the Kremlin that China is encroaching on its turf.
As Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and the author of No Limits: The Inside Story Of China's War With The West, told me, ensuring that Moscow feels respected has been a central part of its strategy with Russia.
"If they treat Russia as an equal -- even if they don't think they are -- then this will pay dividends for China, and that's been a growing part of how Xi has approached this entire relationship."
Will 2023 Be Another Big Year For China In Central Asia?- Podcast Jan 11, 2023
After a year where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended the status quo in Eurasia and saw Xi Jinping secure a new five-year term as China’s leader, what can we expect from the coming year and how might China adapt to a changing reality on the ground? RFE/RL correspondent Chris Rickleton and the Wilson Center's Bradley Jardine join host Reid Standish for a look at Beijing's plans for the region.
Shaping a Transatlantic Response to China, CEPA
Chinese influence operations present a unique challenge to democracies on both sides of the Atlantic. With the United States labeling China as the top strategic threat, how can Western policymakers work together to curb the spread of Chinese influence? The Chair of the European Parliament Delegation for Relations with China, H.E. Reinhard Bütikofer, sits down with Sam Greene to analyze the extent of Chinese influence in Europe and the United States and to discuss how policymakers can strengthen resilience.
Speakers:
H.E. Reinhard Bütikofer, Member of the European Parliament (Greens/European Free Alliance – Germany)
Sam Greene, Director, Democratic Resilience, Center for European Policy Analysis
