Jan 19: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Jan 18: Russia attacked Ukraine with 33 Shahed drones of which 22 were shot down. In addition, two S-300 missiles were launched. Main direction of attack was the north.
RFE/RL journalist wounded in Russian mortar attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RFE/RL said that Yevchyn, who has worked with the outlet since 2018, was injured in the leg by shrapnel from a Russian mortar strike while filming a video near the the front-line city of Robotyne.
Russian attacks on Odesa, Kharkiv, Kherson Oblast injure 23 over past day. Russian attacks against Ukraine injured 23 people over the past 24 hours, regional authorities reported early on Jan. 17.
Another Ukrainian school became a target of the Russian army. “We are hitting only military targets,” Russian propagandists keep saying. The reality is that Russia has invaded a sovereign state and wants to gain full control over Ukraine by destroying our schools, theaters, hospitals, residential buildings and killing civilians.” Location: Apostolove, Dnipropetrovsk region. Video: UkraineWorld.
Combat Situation Update
Russian forces have taken control of Vesele, a town in eastern Donetsk region, reports Reuters citing a statement by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday.
Military intelligence: Railways in western Russia hit by sabotage attacks. Railway tracks in Russia's Saratov, Yaroslavl, and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts have been targeted in sabotage attacks, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Jan. 17.
Minister: Ukraine uses FrankenSAM hybrid system for first time, downs Russian kamikaze drone. Ukraine used the first hybrid air defense system under the FrankenSAM program, a joint project between the U.S. and Ukraine, to shoot down a Shahed drone launched by Russia on Jan. 17, Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
I couldn’t resist. This is scrumptuous.
Local channels report of a blackout in occupied Crimea. Most big cities remain without electricity. Previously, there was an emergency network shutdown. Simferopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Dzhankoy and Saki still remain without electricity.
White House: Military cooperation between Russia, North Korea has potential to 'drastically' change security threat. The growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea could "drastically" influence the type of security threats coming from North Korea, said Pranay Vaddi, the White House's senior director for arms control.
Behind the Lines
GPS signal disruptions were reported over Poland, with significant disruptions in Piła and Konin, and moderate in Poznań. Similar incidents occured in Finland and Estonia. According to John Wiseman from gpsjam, it could be a deliberate Russian jamming attempt or a military exercise. Russia has jamming systems within range in the Königsberg region. These attacks have been increasing since December 15, 2023.
ISW: Putin attempts to destabilize Baltic countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin sets conditions for future escalations in the Baltic countries as part of the alleged plan to weaken the NATO alliance, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Jan. 16 assessment.
Employees of the FSB Directorate for the "LNR" are collecting information on distance education of children of the occupied Luhansk region under Ukrainian educational programmes. On 20.12.2023, the FSS officers sent the relevant letter to the Ministry of Education and Science. The FSB is rounding people who are taking Ukrainian distance courses.
AP: Circling around and around for hours on auto-pilot high in the skies of eastern Europe, secretive surveillance flights for NATO closely watch Russian activity along the military alliance's eastern flank. AP's John Leicester has more from inside one of these planes.
Schools in western Ukraine are rolling out rifle and pistol shooting practice using interactive software, a regional official said. The governor of the western Ivano-Frankivsk region Svitlana Onyshchuk said: “Prykarpattia high school students will learn shooting on safe interactive systems at Defence of Ukraine classes.” She says the training will be introduced in three dozen schools in the western region.
Media: Sanctions forcing Russian companies out of Cyprus. Russian companies have been increasingly leaving Cyprus as Western sanctions impact their ability to operate, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant wrote on Jan. 16.
Estonia said it would not renew the residence permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox church of the Moscow patriarchate, Metropolitan Eugene, saying the Russian national was “a security risk.
Meanwhile in Russia
“We have already said goodbye to the reserves.” The government and the Russian Central Bank have admitted the impossibility of stopping the confiscation of 300 billion dollars frozen in the West. Reuters cites 4 sources familiar with the position of the government and the Central Bank.
Russia has blamed separatist “traitors” from abroad who want to start a “partisan war” for the protests that took place on Wednesday in the small town of Baymak in Bashkortostan after local activist Fail Aslynov was jailed for four years.
According to AFP, eight protesters were handed short-term jail sentences on Thursday. Investigators had launched criminal cases on the grounds of “mass rioting” and assaulting police officers – charges which carry maximum penalties of up to 15 years.
The protesters had insisted in social media videos that they were not “extremists” and some carried flags of the republic at the protest.
“There is a group of people, some of whom are abroad, who are de facto traitors and call for the separation of Bashkortostan from Russia,” Khabirov said. “They are calling for partisan war here.”
“We don't want our people to be killed in the war. We don't want our land to be robbed and destroyed," says Bashkir musician Altynay Valitov, calling on the indigenous peoples of Russia to come out and protest.”
Russia has filed charges against 68 foreign mercenaries for fighting for Ukraine, according to the Russian state-run Tass news agency, which cites a statement sent by to it by Russia’s investigative committee (IC).
Noel Report: Russian sources report that overnight a drone fell and exploded on the territory of the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, oil and gas company. No damage was allegedly inflicted. The drone attack on an oil depot is a special operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate, RBC claims with sources inside the special services. Currently, data collection is ongoing, however, it is already known about confirmed hits.
Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, held his annual briefing on Thursday in Moscow. In the near three-hour long news conference, he said Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine had “brought about a certain purification of [Russian] society” and made it “healthier”. He also said Russia “can no longer trust the west”.
Ukraine will not decide on conditions to end the conflict as “Washington is calling the shots” said Lavrov at his annual briefing in Moscow. On the security cooperation agreement recently announced by the UK and Ukraine, Lavrov called it a “half-baked product” containing no “legally binding agreements”. He added that not the “slightest interest” has been shown by the US and other western nations in ending the war.
Lavrov claimed the US and other western countries were being surpassed by “emerging and strengthening centres of economic growth, financial power and political influence”, although he was not specific about which countries. Lavrov also said Russia’s relations with China were at “their best period in history”.
Lavrov: Russia needs a major war to unite the people. This was the positive effect on the Russian people in reference to the current war they are waging on Ukraine.
The Russian prosecutor has asked for the maximum prison term of 4 years and 11 months of imprisonment of wanted war criminal Igor Girkin in a general regime colony. He is accused of inciting extremism. The verdict will take place on January 25 in a Moscow court.
Orbán called for EU support to Ukraine to be reviewed annually. Orbán criticised “liberal” politicians for wanting “to give money to Ukraine over four years”, claiming it would be “anti-democratic” to do so just ahead of European parliament elections in June.
Orbán’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas said Hungary was in talks with the EU about Ukraine aid but it was not certain an agreement would be reached. Failing that, he said, the EU’s other 26 members could reach a solution without Hungary.
Allied Support
Cyprus is making an “extremely important” contribution in increasing sanctions pressure on Moscow, Ukraine’s ambassador to the east Mediterranean island, Ruslan Nimchynskyi said on Thursday.
Starting this month already, France will monthly provide Ukraine with about 50 air-to-ground A2SM (AASM Hammer) air bombs and 3000 artillery shells. The bombs will be able to be launched from existing Soviet aircraft which Ukraine has in its possession.
Germany delivers tank ammunition, vehicles to Ukraine. Germany has handed over ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks, as well as helmets, drones, and vehicles to Ukraine, the German government announced on Jan. 17.
European Commission to define negotiation framework of Ukraine's EU accession talks. The European Commission prepares for accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova by working on a negotiation framework, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Jan. 17.
Reuters: BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase helping Kyiv raise funds for reconstruction bank. The Ukrainian government has joined forces with banks BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase to launch a reconstruction bank, and already gathered $500 million in committed capital, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.
President Biden urges swift Congressional support for Ukraine's defense, emphasizing national security risks. He calls for additional funding, bipartisan action on border challenges, and passage of the national security supplemental. WSJ reports that Biden reportedly agreed to strengthen immigration policy to avoid criticism and ensure aid to Ukraine. The Senate is developing an immigration agreement that will limit the ability of migrants to request asylum.
House Speaker Johnson says no deal on border, Ukraine aid currently possible ahead of meeting in White House. Even as U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional leaders from both parties are set to meet on Jan. 17, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said that the time is not right for a deal on immigration and border issues that could pave the way for approval of new aid for Ukraine.
Former NATO chief: Democrats should compromise with Republicans to secure Ukraine aid. U.S. Democrats should negotiate a deal with Republicans to reach a compromise on aid for Ukraine as a Russian victory would ultimately weaken the U.S., former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in an interview with Politico released on Jan. 17.
Reuters: No risk of default for holders of Russian bonds in case of confiscation. Some Western countries, even those that support confiscating the assets, have expressed concerns over the wider implications of the seizure.
90,000 troops (from NATO allies and Sweden) will participate in NATO's largest exercise for decades, known as Steadfast Defender 2024, that will kick off next week and run through to May, commander of United States European Command Chris Cavoli said.
German parliament rejects motion to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine. German lawmakers rejected a proposal from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) parties on transferring long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, the Bundestag said on Jan. 17.
Politico: Kaja Kallas, Estonian Prime Minister, has been recently mentioned as a possible successor to Borrell as head of European diplomacy after elections at the European Parliament. Many of her admirers would have liked to see her as head of NATO. Mario Draghi is being considered for the top spot at the EU Commission.
Noel Report: The EU Parliament adopted a resolution that calls on the European Council to examine if Hungary is committing a "serious and persistent breach" of the bloc's values under Article 7.2.
"The EP has done its part, now members states should follow through," MEP Sarvamaa said.
Me: It’s about time!
These are the MEPs in the European Parliament that opposed taking away Hungary’s vote. When Hungary is talking about opposing aid to Ukraine, these are the people that back him.
For those who don’t know much about British politics, this is Jeremy Corbyn, former leader of the Labour Party. He ran against Boris Johnson in the last election. His position on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has always been the same: stop giving arms to Ukraine as it will only lead to a prolongation of the war, and Ukrainians and young Russian soldiers will die. He’s another ‘peacenik’. Stuck in the Soviet era. Like his Italian counterparts, he never mentions the Russian leadership once or why he believes they will stop killing Ukrainians.
Pakistan said it carried out 'a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province of Iran'. A number of terrorists were reportedly killed.
