Jan 2: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope Pond&Beyond
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…In 2025, air alerts sounded at least 19,033 times. Every week, thousands of air threats were detected over Ukraine.
Russia launches New Year’s Day drone attacks across Ukraine. Russia attacked several Ukrainian regions with drones overnight on Jan. 1, striking energy infrastructure in southern Odesa Oblast.
Russian attacks kill 6, injure 23 in Ukraine over past day. The Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 101 of the 127 drones launched by Russia overnight.
The iconic church in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk, has been bombed in a russian airstrike. Two people killed.
A strike hit a residential building in broad daylight in Kharkiv, at least 30 injured, including children. People may still be trapped under the rubble. It’s January 2nd, and Russia is terrorizing civilians again.
‘Russia is targeting civilians’ — Casualties, outages reported following Russian drone strikes on residential buildings in Odesa. Over 170,000 people are without power after the attack, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said on Wednesday morning.
Kyiv Indie: Poll: 74% of Ukrainians against peace plan involving Kyiv's withdrawal from Donbas, army cap. 69% of Ukrainians support a plan that would freeze the war with security guarantees, as long as Ukraine is not forced to recognize the occupied territories as Russian.
On New Years’ Eve: Russian forces struck a residential area in Zaporizhzhia, causing a fire, the regional governor Fedorov reports. Details are still being confirmed.
Ukraine Bring Kids Back: Another young person was rescued from Russia as part of the initiative of the President of Ukraine Bring Kids Back UA and with the assistance of the Ukrainian Network for Children's Rights.
After the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian soldiers forcibly transferred 21-year-old Dmytro from his native village to Krasnodar under the pretext of so-called “evacuation.” In reality, it was the deportation of a civilian, which cut him off from his home and deprived him of the ability to make decisions about his own life.
For three years, Dmytro lived in enforced isolation under the control of the Russian authorities. He was forced to obtain a Russian passport, and his Ukrainian documents were lost. His daily life took place in an atmosphere of pressure, restrictions, and constant fear — in an environment where Russia systematically applies a policy of indoctrination and forced integration, seeking to subordinate young people and destroy their Ukrainian identity.
Only this year did it become clear that the constant control over Dmytro had slightly weakened and an opportunity to act had appeared. Aware of all the risks, he did not hesitate and began looking for a way to return home.
Today, Dmytro is back in free Ukraine. He is safe and receiving the assistance and support he needs to recover after years of being forcibly kept under the control of the occupation authorities.
ISW: Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine in 2025. The sizes of Russia’s overnight strike packages have grown significantly throughout 2025. Prior to 2025, Russian forces launched their largest strike package against Ukraine on the night of November 16 to 17, 2024, with 210 drones and missiles. Russian forces in 2025 have launched 52 strike packages containing 210 or more projectiles. Russian forces launched their largest-ever strike package on September 6 to 7, 2025, containing 810 drones and 13 missiles. Russian forces have launched a total of 18 strike packages that each contain over 500 projectiles in 2025.
'We want the end of the war — not the end of Ukraine,' Zelensky says in New Year address. "A Budapest-style piece of paper will not satisfy Ukraine. Ukraine does not need a Minsk-style meticulously drafted trap. My signature will be under a strong agreement," Zelensky said in his address on Dec. 31.
Kyrylo Budanov has confirmed that he accepted the position of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
“I accepted the offer of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to be the Head of his Office. I continue to serve Ukraine. I consider the position of Head of the Office of the President as another milestone of responsibility to the country. For me, it is an honor and a responsibility - at a historic time for Ukraine, to focus on critically important issues of the strategic security of our state. Thank you for your trust!
President Zelensky: I met with Kyrylo Budanov and offered him the role of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. At this time, Ukraine needs a stronger focus on security, development of our Defense and Security Forces, and progress on the diplomatic track. The Office will serve these state priorities.
Budanov has specialized experience and the strength to deliver results. I have also instructed him, together with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council and other leaders, to update and submit for approval the strategic foundations of our defense and national development, and outline next steps.
Combat SituationRussian forces tried to mass over 30 light vehicles (motorcycles, buggies, trucks) near Pokrovsk for an assault on Hryshyne. Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps struck them mid-march, including with HIMARS. More Russian assets were hit near city outskirts as they sought cover. Attack failed.
Russian forces attempted to push deeper into Ukrainian positions near Sviatohirsk and Lyman, but their attempts were unsuccessful. After the holidays they noticeably reduced activity, said Nikita Suglobov, an officer of the Phoenix unit, on a telethon on January 2.
Ukrainian forces continue to hit Russian capabilities:
Ukraine damages major Russian oil assets in New Year's Eve strikes, military reports. Targets included Russia's Tuapse Oil Refinery, the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal, a Rosreserv oil base, a temporary military base for river boats, and ammunition depots in occupied Ukraine, the General Staff said.
Russian sources confirm a drone strike on the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara Oblast overnight. At least ten explosions were heard, and large fires were seen at the Rosneft-owned site. Videos from the scene show flames lighting up the night sky, shortly after officials issued a drone alert across the region.
Ukraine strikes oil facility north of Moscow, source says. The operation targeted a large oil depot in Rybinsk, a city 160 miles north of Moscow in Yaroslavl Oblast, the sources said.
Ukraine сonfirms strike on Russia's Ilsky oil refinery, multiple military targets in New Year attack. Several fires were reported at oil facilities in Kaluga Oblast and Krasnodar Krai overnight on Jan. 1, according to Telegram monitoring channels.
Ukrainian drone forces struck key Russian targets in occupied Luhansk and Crimea. A fuel storage base was hit, sparking a large fire, and a radar station monitoring airspace was also destroyed.
Russian media report that drones struck the Kazanorgsintez chemical/industrial facility in Kazan, triggering a large fire after explosions at the site. Local footage shows flames and smoke rising over the plant area.
Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money. Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), was reported killed in action on Dec. 27.
The GUR released a video showing how its multi‑stage op saved Russian Volunteer Corps commander Denis Kapustin’s life. As part of the plan, they created a fake drone strike video on a van and staged the “aftermath” with a burning vehicle to fool Russian services who had put up a $500,000 hit.
Behind the LinesCIA rejects Putin's claim of Ukrainian attack on his residence, as Russia hands over alleged 'evidence.' The report confirms Ukraine's original denial and undercuts claims made by the Kremlin.
Romania Journal: In Romania on Friday, two F-16 fighters were scrambled after Russian drones were detected approaching Ukrainian ports on the Danube. Official authorities noted that the surveillance system detected drones launched by Russia toward Ukrainian ports on the Danube. They also reported that at 12:00 residents of the northern part of Tulcea were warned via the RO-Alert system about the possibility of objects falling from the air, and 22 minutes later the warning was cancelled.
NYT: The Separation—Inside the Unraveling US-Ukraine Partnership
(Long read worth every minute of your time)
The train left the U.S. Army depot in the west of Germany and made for Poland and the Ukrainian border. These were the final 800 miles of a trans-Atlantic supply chain that had sustained Ukraine across more than three long years of war.
The freight on this last day in June was 155-millimeter artillery shells, 18,000 of them packed into crates, their fuses separated out to prevent detonation in transit. Their ultimate destination was the eastern front, where Vladimir V. Putin’s generals were massing forces and firepower against the city of Pokrovsk. The battle was for territory and strategic advantage but also for bragging rights: Mr. Putin wanted to show the American president, Donald J. Trump, that Russia was indeed winning.
Advertising their war plan, the Russians had told Mr. Trump’s advisers. “We’re going to slam them harder there. We have the munitions to do that.” In Washington, the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, had been talking about munitions, too, testifying to a Senate appropriations subcommittee that those earmarked for Ukraine by former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. were “still flowing.”
Three months earlier, in fact, Mr. Hegseth had, unannounced, decided to hold back one crucial class of munitions — American-made 155s. The U.S. military’s stocks were running low, his advisers had warned; withholding them would force the Europeans to step up, to take greater responsibility for the war in their backyard.
Day after day, then, thousands upon thousands of 155s earmarked for Ukraine had lain waiting on pallets at the ammunitions depot. The American commander in Europe, General Christopher G. Cavoli, had fired off email after email, pleading with the Pentagon to free them. The jam had been broken only after intervention from Jack Keane, a retired Army general and Fox News contributor who was friendly with the president.
But on July 2, as the train approached the Ukrainian border, a new order came in to the U.S. military’s European Command: “Divert everything. Immediately.” (continue)
Meanwhile in Russia & China…This is still a thing: New Russian “proof”. GRU chief Kostyukov showed a US military attache a supposed flight controller and “decoded data” claiming the Ukrainian drone was headed for the dictator’s residence. In footage, he appears to meet them as if for the first time, holding what looks like the controller from a cheap Chinese hobby drone. The Kremlin’s claims have been completely debunked by various OSINT accounts and even Trump doesn’t believe the Russians.
EuroMaidan Press: Belarus says it's mounting nuclear warheads on missiles that can reach Kyiv, Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. Every Russian nuclear "red line" has been crossed without consequence. But the saber-rattling has succeeded at one thing: making Western allies hesitate to arm Ukraine.
The announcement appears to be part of Russia’s continuous strategy of nuclear blackmail, which has intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Russia has already transferred Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles into Belarusian territory — these weapons are able to mount both conventional and nuclear warheads. A conventional Oreshnik missile was used to attack the city of Dnipro in November 2024.
The oil tanker Bella1, which since December 15 has been fleeing from the US Coast Guard in the Atlantic, near the Lesser Antilles, has now assumed a Russian flag and Moscow is asking to spare it. The ship was carrying oil illegally from Iran to Venezuela.
Bloomberg—India restarts Russian oil imports: three tankers carrying 2.2M barrels of Urals-grade oil are headed to Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery, Bloomberg reports.
Tankers carrying nearly 2.2 million barrels of Russia’s Urals crude are currently en route to India’s largest oil refinery, signaling a renewed flow of Russian energy supplies to the country despite tightened US sanctions, according to Bloomberg on January 2.
The shipments are headed to the massive Jamnagar refining complex operated by Reliance Industries on India’s western coast and are expected to arrive later this month, based on vessel-tracking data analyzed by Kpler.
The refinery had halted Russian supplies after Washington blacklisted key firms, including Rosneft and Lukoil, before turning to alternative sources.
According to the report, the incoming Urals crude will be refined primarily for domestic consumption, rather than for export markets—an important distinction as India balances energy security concerns with growing geopolitical pressure.
Propaganda—Anti-Western commentator Pascal Lottaz is hard at work vs the EU and the US
Over the last 2 weeks, I tried to work a lot on the EU sanctions against Jacques Baud, Nathalie Yamb, and others. Here are my combined insights. In a nutshell, the main problem we have now in the EU is that the executive branch created a foreign policy regime that it can deploy against its own citizens and residents at will. The sanctions, I argue, are not so much illegal as they are extralegal. They circumvent the normal judicial process. That’s what gives them their draconian nature and political force.
Global Times: China will never allow any force to tie its hands in curbing 'Taiwan independence' separatist acts in name of safeguarding cross-Straits peace: MND spokesperson
Responding to hypes by external forces regarding the just-concluded "Justice Mission 2025" joint drills, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said on Friday that China will never allow any force to tie our hands in curbing "Taiwan independence" separatist activities in the name of safeguarding cross-Straits peace. He urged relevant countries to stop conniving at and supporting "Taiwan independence" forces, and stop stirring up trouble on the Taiwan question.
Multiple forces of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) started drills code-named "Justice Mission 2025" around Taiwan Island earlier this week.
When asked to respond to the foreign hypes, Zhang noted that the successful organization of the drills has fully tested the integrated joint operation capabilities of the task forces, fully demonstrated the strong capability to combat "Taiwan independence" and promote reunification as well as counter external interference.
It also clearly made it known that any egregious act of crossing the line and provoking trouble on the Taiwan question will surely be met with resolute countermeasures, and that any sinister attempt to obstruct China's reunification will never succeed, Zhang said.
Zhang reiterated that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Taiwan question is purely China's internal affair that brooks no external interference.
"The PLA's organization of anti-secession and anti-interference operations in the waters and airspace around the Taiwan island is completely legitimate, necessary and beyond reproach," Zhang said, "The overriding status quo across the Taiwan Strait is that both sides of the Strait belong to one and the same China, and the gravest threat to peace and stability across the Strait lies in 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities and the connivance and support from external forces." (continue)
In Europe…Finland detains Russia-linked ship suspected of sabotage. Early in the morning on Dec. 31, the Finnish telecommunications service provider Elisa reported that an undersea cable linking Finland and Estonia had been damaged. The cargo ship Fitburg, sailing from Russia, may have been responsible.
Finnish police on Wednesday seized a ship sailing from Russia on suspicion of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable running from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland, an area hit by a string of similar incidents in recent years.
The seized cargo vessel “Fitburg” was en route from the Russian port of St Petersburg to Israel at the time of the incident, Finland’s Border Guard authority told a press conference in Helsinki.
The Fitburg's 14 crew members were from Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and were all held by Finnish police, investigators said. The ship sailed under the flag of St Vincent and Grenadines.
Croatia and Romania to join NATO-backed plan to purchase US weapons for Ukraine. Romania will contribute 50 million euros ($59 million), according to a press release by the Romanian government.
Czech banks are reportedly closing accounts and denying services to small arms manufacturers and related individuals because their business involves supplying weapons to Ukraine. Even relatives of industry workers say their personal accounts were shut, and some firms struggled to open accounts for pro‑Ukraine charities.
Smaller defence companies face denials of loans and services despite proper licensing and oversight, while major arms producers don’t face the same barriers. Banks cite risk and compliance rules, but critics say the treatment amounts to discrimination against the defence sector.
Scottish pro Palestine activists vandalized an Edinburgh area factory linked to the F35 program in the first hours of 2026. The pro Palestinian group broke into the Bruntons Aero Products facility in Musselburgh, damaging CNC machines, servers, and computers. Graffiti left at the site read “There’s only one way this ends”. The group said Bruntons was targeted for supplying Leonardo, which produces laser targeting systems for F35 jets and military equipment used by Israel.
The Polish-language social media is now flooded with AI women asking themselves "What has the EU ever done for us?" and passionately demanding Poland's immediate exit from the EU.
Across the Pond and Beyond...Security forces in Iran have begun firing machine guns at protesters
In the city of Marvdasht, gunfire was reportedly coming from the rooftops of a school and a bank. Iranian media report casualties.
Armed clashes are becoming more frequent: shootings have been reported in Fars, Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari.
In Azna, protesters attacked a police station — three people were killed and 17 wounded.
According to Reuters, these are the largest protests in Iran in the past three years, since the 2022 demonstrations sparked by the morality police killing 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.
Arash Azizi: Iranians Have Had Enough
A wave of protests started by shopkeepers swept through Tehran in December. Iranians have had such a terrible year—facing such a decline in living standards and such a sense of political impasse—that no one was terribly surprised when demonstrations filled the streets.
I asked one Iranian student why she had taken part in the street protests. “Yeah, why should we protest?” she replied sarcastically. “After all, we have it so good!”
The immediate spark for the protests was a sharp decline in the value of the Iranian currency. At one point last week, a U.S. dollar traded for almost 1.5 million rials, having lost more than half its value in a year. As recently as 2021, a dollar cost around 250,000 rials and, only a decade ago, around 30,000. This continuous decline has slashed savings, destroyed the Iranian middle class, and inflicted real suffering on the working classes. The protests began on Sunday with merchants who rely on importing electrical goods and find that very few can now afford them. But they’ve quickly mushroomed—as did previous rounds did in 2017, 2019, and 2022—spreading to cities in provinces such as Hamedan, Isfahan, and Lorestan, and drawing in students, pensioners, and members of Gen Z. (continue)
NYT: The Trump administration is closing NASA’s largest research library, a facility that houses tens of thousands of books, documents and journals — many of them not digitized or available anywhere else.
Happy Healthy New Year to you Monique! Thank your for all of your hard work keeping us well informed in the media mor ass that was 2025. We hope that you'll keep up your excellent writing and persevere in being awesome in 2026! More power to you dear lady! ❤️
I don't understand anything. What is going on in the world? Everything is looking tragic and hopeless. One bandit, Putin, occupied Ukraine, and the whole Europe + America, and other countries are so weak that they can do nothing against one criminal. Is it because of Democracy?!