Jan 20: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
“20 Days in Mariupol” has been nominated as best documentary at BAFTA.
Stories we’re following…
1 killed, 2 injured in Russian shelling of Kupiansk. Russian forces struck the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of Jan. 18, hitting a multi-story building, killing one person, and injuring the other two, oblast governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.
Kherson administration showed what the streets of Kherson look like after a night of shelling by the Russian army. Shells damaged people's houses - glass was broken and walls were cut by debris. Fortunately, there are no casualties or injuries.
Ilario Piangnerelli: The treasures of Crimea, rescued from Putin's desires and recently returned from the Netherlands after a long legal battle between Kyiv and Moscow.
6/10 Ukrainian refugees hope to return, study says. More than half of Ukrainians surveyed said they plan to return to Ukraine in the future, a 2023 study by Vox Ukraine released Jan. 16 says.
Ukraine World: The city of Nikopol is now located just 6 kilometers from the Russian military positions. The Russians regularly fire on Nikopol. But despite this, life goes on. People read books, visit libraries and live their lives.
Zelensky’s address on Friday evening:
The current madness of Russian leaders brings a period of uncertainty and danger to every nation in the world. Increasingly, the world hears and realizes that more wars may be ahead. But we have the strength to stop it. We have the strength to defend normal life. The world has this strength. And this strength must work now to stop Russia.
Combat Situation Update
The Russian Armed Forces carried out one missile and 16 air strikes, and carried out 43 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems. More than 100 settlements in Ukraine came under artillery and mortar fire, report the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army.
87 military clashes took place. The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled attacks by Russian troops near the settlements of Sinkovka, Petropavlovka, Tabaevka, Berestovoe in the Kharkov region, near Belogorovka and Serebryansky forestry in the Luhansk region, Verbovoye in the Zaporozhye region, as well as near the settlements of the Donetsk region: Terny, Andreevka, Klishcheevka, Avdeevka, Tonenkoe , Pervomaiskoye, Nevelskoye, Marinka, Novomikhailovka.
Russians trying to capture Kupiansk forest and Synkivka - Syrskyi. The Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited military units holding defense in the Kupiansk direction and planned the use of reserves with their commanders.
ISW: Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the front.
Russian officials continue to target naturalized migrants as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts. Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to restore logistics infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.
Noel Report: We all saw the video in which a M2A2 Bradley destroyed a T-90M in Stepove, north of Avdiivka. These are the soldiers that took out the T-90M. Serhii on the left and Oleksandr on the right. One used to be a teacher, the other a mechanic. The reason why taking out the T-90M is so important is that the Russians billed this tank as superior to anything the British or Americans had. It can be done.
The Russian 382nd Separate Naval infantry battalion (810th brigade), fighting in Krynky, has reportedly lost over 90% of its equipment and ~60% personnel due to artillery and FPV strikes. The amount of defectors is increasing as they are now forced to storm without equipment. Krynky is located on the left back of the Dnipro.
A few days ago the patrol vessel of the Tarantul 205P type, stolen by the Russians in 2014 and actively used for military purposes, sank in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea The Novocherkassk sank earlier - the Russians promise the relatives of the missing marines to bring it back to life.
BBC: A source at Ukraine's main intelligence directorate told there would be further attacks on military targets inside Russia as most of its air defence and electronic warfare systems had been concentrated in occupied parts of Ukraine.
Ukraine reportedly hits oil depot near Saint Petersburg with homegrown drone. Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said later the same day that the drone had been produced in Ukraine, a rare public acknowledgment of an attack on Russian soil by a Ukrainian official.
"The drones that were used to attack the oil depot in the Leningrad region in Russia were Ukrainian-made, hit a target and flew exactly 1250km that night," Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Oleksandr Kamyshin said.
A fire tore through Ryazan oil refinery, Russia’s third-largest, on Friday, the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper said, quoting emergency services. The fire at the oil refinery, controlled by Rosneft, has been put out and there were no injuries, RIA news agency reported.
Klintsy, Bryansk region: Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot overnight. The fire still hasn't been extinguished. At least 4 tanks have been destroyed.
Brady Africk: This site is more than 45 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
A huge fire has broken out at Europe-Asia, a shopping and entertainment centre in the centre of the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet RIA Novosti reports. The blaze covers 1,000 sq. m, and 96 firefighters and 36 appliances are involved in extinguishing it. The fire has been assigned level 3 out of 5 complexity levels.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian Blackjack IT specialists, likely associated with the SBU, downloaded more than 1.2 TB of data from the "Main Directorate of Russian Military Construction for Special Facilities" These are more than 500 technical passports of military facilities of the Russian Ministry of Defense:
Arsenals of weapons
Sites of air defense systems
Headquarters and barracks
They opened 7 servers and encrypted more than 150 computers of employees of Russian state companies leaving without data and backup copies of information
About 160 people who applied for asylum at Finland’s eastern border last year have since disappeared, amid a sudden surge of asylum seekers arriving via Russia, Finland’s immigration authority said. Eighteen people have turned up in other European countries, including the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany and Switzerland, to refile an asylum application.
US warns of Russian efforts to turn public opinion against Ukraine in upcoming European elections. Russia plans to use information operations to turn public opinion against Ukraine amid key elections across Europe in 2024, said Jamie Rubin, the special envoy for the U.S. State Department's Global Engagement Center.
Russians register nearly 30,000 companies in Georgia since start of full-scale invasion. Georgia was the most popular country for Russian entrepreneurs to start their businesses abroad in 2022, with the country recording almost 30,000 new companies registered by Russians since February 2022, Forbes Russia reported on Jan. 18.
Border Guard: Romanian protesters unblock one crossing at Ukraine border. Romanian protesters unblocked the Vicovu de Sus crossing on the Ukrainian border, which had been blocked since Jan. 15, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service said on Jan. 19.
The CCP authorized sending Chinese mercenaries to Ukraine. Chinese man who voluntarily signed up to join the Russian army and travel to Ukraine now wants to leave and thinks he’s going to die.
ISW: Russia, Central African Republic in negotiations to house Russian military base. Russia is in negotiations with the Central African Republic (CAR) to establish a Russian military base in the country, aiming to further exert influence in the region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its assessment on Jan. 18. (Me: they already have one even if it isn’t official.)
Zelensky: All Russian missiles have dozens of critical foreign-made parts. Russia uses dozens of critical components from abroad to produce all its missiles, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan.18, referring to a report by Foreign Intelligence Service chief Oleksandr Lytvynenko.
Ukraine has warned that its army faces a “very real and pressing” ammunition shortage as a new 23-nation effort to supply it with artillery was agreed at a meeting in Paris. The “artillery coalition” sits within the wider Ramstein contact group, which gathers more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine.
Jan Kallberg: Delayed but set to arrive in Ukraine in 2024, the SAAB-Boeing designed GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb) has an operational range of 150 km (93 miles), fired from both M270/M142, extends the range of Ukrainian rocket artillery to cover the whole land bridge between Crimea and Russia.
So, the earlier discussed push during the Ukrainian offensive to get the land bridge under fire control failed; the range of M30 rockets is about 50-55 miles, and the offensive never made it that far.
Once GLSDB arrives, the Ukrainians will be able to strike any point along the corridor North of the Azov Sea and bring the landbridge under fire control. This new ability will push Russian higher commands and logistic railheads further away.
Meanwhile in Russia
A delegation of members of the Hamas militant movement has visited Russia, the Foreign Ministry said on Friday. Reuters reports the Russian side emphasised the need to release hostages during talks, the Foreign Ministry said.
Putin sets information conditions for escalation against Baltic countries - ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin has notably amplified a longstanding Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against the Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO.
Unrest continued today in Ufa, the capital of Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan, where residents came out this week to protest the jailing of a local activist.
Leyla Latypova: Today hundreds gathered in the very heart of Bashqortostan’s capital Ufa near the monument to Bashqort liberation fighter Salawat Yulaev. Here protesters are singing a song based on Yulayev’s poem “My Urals”. (Me: by the way, the choice of Ufa is important because Putin and some of his close advisors have hideaways there.)
More than 10 Russian companies “with a huge amount of work in their sector” have decided to leave the jurisdiction of Cyprus, writes Phileleftheros. More are expected to follow in the future. Many have relocated to Kaliningrad, Russky Island or “friendly” countries, for example, to Kazakhstan.
On January 15, shareholders of TCS Group Holding, the parent company of Tinkoff Bank, whose controlling stake was acquired by businessman Vladimir Potanin after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, approved re-registration from Cypriot jurisdiction to Russian. The group will move to Russky Island. The procedure will be completed in the first quarter of 2024. The structure, which will change its name to TKS Holding, will be headed by Tinkoff Bank Vice President Konstantin Markelov.
Also, the decision to move from Cyprus to Russia was made by the shareholders of Etalon Group, one of the largest developers in the country. The company will be re-registered in the Kaliningrad region. The procedure will be completed within nine months.
In the SAR, on Oktyabrsky Island there is already United Medical Group, the parent company of the European Medical Center (EMC) clinic network, as well as two enterprises affiliated with Russneft, Negard Holding Limited and Bradinar Holding Limited. The first is now called MKOO "Negard", the second - MKOO "Bredinar".
Francis Scarr for the BBC: “Here’s a crazy new conspiracy theory from Russian state TV Russia claims it recently wiped out 60 'French mercenaries' in a missile strike on Kharkiv Alexander Kazakov says the West will "cover it up" by evacuating the bodies and "staging an air crash to 'launder' their deaths"
The tobacco industry in Russia, from where international companies began to leave after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, must be nationalized, stated in an interview with RTVI by Biysultan Khamzaev, a member of the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption and the founder of the public movement “Sober Russia”.
Previously, Khamzaev also proposed banning foreigners from selling alcohol and tobacco at retail. Commenting on this initiative, he noted that he does not consider this discrimination: “Foreigners understand that they come to Russia to sell counterfeit alcohol. They understand that when they are caught, the most they face is deportation.”
The Gazprom state corporation is going to start producing Aurus cars for officials at the former Toyota plant in St. Petersburg, informed sources told Kommersant. The board of directors of the gas monopoly was supposed to discuss the implementation of the project in early December. According to Vedomosti, the concern was considering the possibility of acquiring 40% of the Aurus manufacturer.
Allied Support
Next Tuesday, 23 January, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, and Stacy Cummings, General Manager of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA), will sign a contract for the purchase of 155-mm artillery ammunition, European Pravda reports. NATO announced on 19 January that the planned agreement is "a major new investment in artillery ammunition". NATO did not disclose any details of the agreement, merely announcing that statements will be made by the Secretary General and the General Manager of NSPA.
"So far we have delivered everything that's possible. Each time we consider what effect a delivery would have. So far, Taurus missiles are out of the question for us. By the way, no one else delivers anything comparable," German MoD Boris Pistorius said.
Ukraine's allies creating 'artillery coalition' in Paris. France is introducing a war economy regime and intensifying the production of all types of weapons for Ukraine. An "artillery coalition" is being launched on the basis of French-made Caesar self-propelled howitzers.
Estonia to provide €14 million annually in development aid for Ukraine. Estonia’s annual support package for Ukraine aims to bolster Ukraine’s economy through business cooperation and to aid in the country’s post-war reconstruction.
US slaps new sanctions over Russian oil price cap breach. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced on Jan. 18 sanctions against the shipping company Hennesea Holdings Limited for violating the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian crude.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, at DAVOS: Russia's goal is to destroy the West and our rule of law. Russia constantly weaponizes our legal systems against us, while running a lawless mafia state within its own borders.
Minister: France to deliver more Caesar howitzers, guided bombs to Ukraine. French arms manufacturers will produce 78 Caesar howitzers by the beginning of 2025 to supply them to Ukraine, the country's Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Jan. 18 in an interview for Le Parisien.
The EU has started discussions on a new sanctions package for Russia that it aims to approve by 24 February, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. According to Reuters, the potential measures could include further listings, more trade restrictions and cracking down on Moscow’s continued ability to get around the bloc’s sanctions both through third countries and companies within the EU, the report said citing people familiar with the matter.
WSJ: Biden makes concessions to Republicans on immigration to secure Ukraine aid. U.S. President Joe Biden made concessions on immigration policy to Senate Republicans to deflect criticism and secure backing for Ukraine aid, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Jan. 18.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Tagesspiegel to expect a war with Russia within the next five to eight years. To prepare for the conflict he wants to reinstate compulsory conscription and recruit people without German passports into the army. Pistorius said:
“Threats from the Kremlin almost every day, most recently against our Baltic friends. we must take into account that one day Vladimir Putin will attack NATO countries. Our experts expect this to become possible within 5-8 years”
Russia winning in Ukraine would not end well for Europe, Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has said at the Davos summit in Switzerland. “There’s a chance that Russia might not be contained in Ukraine,” he said. “[We need] common procurement, we could procure things that are needed to defend Europe … it’s Europe’s war.”
Media: European parliament party proposes EU create Defense Commissioner position. The draft manifesto of the European People's Party (EPP), the largest party in the European Parliament, proposes the European Commission create an EU Defense Commissioner position to improve defense coordination in the bloc, Euractiv reported on Jan. 18.
Cameron compares situation in Europe to 1930s, warns against appeasement. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has meant that the current reality is "like being a Foreign Minister or a leader in Europe in the 1930s" in a podcast published by Politico on Jan. 18.
Me: I have often thought of what Cameron has said above. In my opinion, I would extend it—the 30 Years War that extended from the First World War to the end of the Second. I agree on the ‘appeasement’ bit: it’s connected to recognising that a state will not veer from its course of imperial/expansionist policy simply by ‘buying’ it off somehow.
Ambassador names alternatives to EU funding Ukraine if Hungary blocks aid. According to Ukraine's ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov, the backup options include an extrabudgetary fund to which all EU members can make their contributions.
Me: I’m crossing my fingers that the EU does have a Plan B, and C, D for that matter.
German Farmers: Italian ‘farmers’ are organising as well. We’ve found a group that has formed on Telegram which claims to be organising a farmers’ protest in Italy because of the so-called damaging EU policies. Most of the groups on the Italian end date back to the Truckers’ protest. They are also interlinked. We’ll be keeping an eye on them. The ‘protest’ is supposed to start on Monday.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will create a “defense line” along the eastern border. The defense ministers of the Baltic countries agreed on this at a meeting in Riga, reports the Estonian Ministry of Defense. The agreement implies that in the coming years, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will build various defensive structures on their borders, the purpose of which will be to “deter and, if necessary, protect against military threats.”
Decode39: On Thursday, Italian President Sergio Mattarella and PM Giorgia Meloni welcomed Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in the Eternal City. It was his first official visit to Italy, “a sign of the great cooperation that exists and that we wish to intensify,” as President Mattarella noted: “We are on the same wavelength in terms of international relations. Italy and Kazakhstan are bound by the principle of multilateralism. Our economic relationship is intense.”
Me: I’m always a little suspicious about Italian politicians striking accords with areas of the world well-known to have close ties with Russia. Many Russian businesses have left Cyprus, for example, to open up shop in Kazakhstan, as well as other countries. It seems the Italian FM, Antonio Tajani, visited Almaty not long ago to sign accords regarding renewable energy and begin talks for Italy’s energy giant, ENI, which had to leave the Russian market. I’ll keep my eye on this with the help of Madi Kapparov.
Donald Trump can remain on Washington state's Republican presidential primary ballot, a judge ruled, rejecting the latest effort to disqualify the former president from running again based on his efforts to reverse his 2020 election loss.
Julia Davis: In one of his most repugnant public performances to date, Scott Ritter praised Russia for allegedly defeating NATO and the collective West. He brought a special gift for Vladimir Solovyov, who could not have been more pleased with this propaganda bonanza.
Me: Scott Ritter is doing his best to earn whatever money they are giving him to stay alive in Russia. Unfortunately, a lot of these clips will probably be circulated amongst Trump’s support base as a justification for leaving NATO if he’s voted in again. He’s said so before, but luckily, it wasn’t top on his agenda and the security community continued to keep up the role and commitment the U.S. has to NATO.
Video footage released by an organization that works with North Korean defectors shows North Korean authorities publicly sentencing two teenagers to 12 years' hard labor for watching K-pop.
Reuters: The rupture of one of the world's busiest shipping routes has exposed the vulnerability of China's export-reliant economy to supply snarls and external demand shocks.
The Iranian strike on Pakistan this week that drew a rapid military riposte and raised fears of greater regional turmoil was driven by Iran's efforts to reinforce its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East.