Jan 21: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Defence of Ukraine: Cyborgs withstood, concrete could not withstand! January 20 — Memorial Day of Defenders of Donetsk Airport. For 242 days, Ukrainian militaries defended the airport. We remember the feat of our Heroes.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Ukraine downs 4 out of 7 Russian drones overnight. Russian forces launched seven Shahed-136/131 attack drones against Ukraine overnight on Jan. 19, four of which were shot down by Ukraine's air defense, according to a morning update from the General Staff.
Russian forces shell Donetsk Oblast, injure 2. Two people were injured and 33 private homes and an administrative building were damaged by three missiles fired at Novohrodivka, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Welcome to Russian ‘liberated’ Avdiivka:
Russian forces shelled the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 20 January, damaging a private house, Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration reports. The Ukrainian authorities said that a projectile, which did not explode, was discovered on the roof of the building.
IAEA chief: Previously removed mines at Zaporizhzhia power plant 'back in place.' The monitoring mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has discovered mines along the perimeter of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, in a buffer zone between the facility’s internal and external fences, Rafael Grossi, the agency's director general, said in a statement on Jan. 19.
Zelensky’s evening address: “I'm already holding meetings regarding the upcoming week – our international events that we are planning. It concerns relations with partners in Europe, in the European Union. We will add more activity.”
Oleh Horokhovskyi, the co-owner of Monobank, a Ukrainian bank, has reported an extensive distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack on the bank but said the situation was under control, Oleh Horokhovskyi reports on Telegram.
"The most powerful DDoS attack. The situation is under control. 50 million requests. The second wave. We are standing firmly!"
A communications infrastructure facility was damaged during a drone attack in Kolotilovka, Belgorod Region, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. No people were hurt. The gas supply line was also damaged as a result of an attack.
Combat Situation Update
Russia has lost 375,270 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Saturday.
Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Air Force, has said that the Russians deployed air defence systems to Crimea and the front line but had withdrawn them from other regions of Russia, Ihnat reported in an interview with Focus.
"The fact that they filled up the line of contact with it is 100% true, and the fact that Crimea is full of it is 200% true. But you see that the rest of the Russian territory does not have so many air defence systems.
It's basically empty there. Moscow, St Petersburg, Putin's bunkers will be more or less protected, but Ukrainian-made drones are capable of reaching Moscow, St Petersburg and other oil depots. This is a very good sign.
A total of 103 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces occurred over the course of the past 24 hours, with Ukrainian forces repelling 33 Russian assaults on the Avdiivka front, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook, information as of 06:00 on 20 January.
Within the area of responsibility of the Odesa Operational-Strategic Group of Forces on the Kherson front, Ukrainian forces are continuing to undertake operations to expand their foothold [on Dnipro’s left (east) bank]. Over the course of the past day, the Russians undertook 10 unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian positions.
ISW: Russia will likely focus on conducting "localized offensive operations" across the entire front in order to deplete Ukrainian forces.
Estonian intelligence: Russian troops trying to cut off supply routes to Avdiivka. The Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces believes that the Russian armed forces are achieving some success in attacking Ukrainian positions from the flanks, while suffering heavy losses during direct attacks.
Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fito warned that although Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian tanks and armoured vehicles, Russian forces have "a large reserve of resources".
Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets said that Russian forces have recently "switched to the offensive" in certain areas on the Lyman front, particularly west of Svatove and west and southwest of Kreminna.
Mashovets noted that Russian forces are likely preparing for larger-scale actions on the Lyman front in the coming weeks.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated military blogger also claimed that Russian forces have begun a "massive offensive" on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis.
Vadym Vietrov: The Special Forces ‘Omega’ Unit of the Ukrainian National Guard are carrying out a mission to destroy Russian positions in the Avdiivka direction with the mobile MLRS unit "Партізан".
Russia deploys another A-50 plane over Sea of Azov to replace downed one - British intel. After Ukraine shot down a Russian A-50 radar long-range warning aircraft over the waters of the Sea of Azov, Russia has deployed another such plane, this time farther away from the borders of Ukraine.
ISW: Russia conducting information operation to distort NATO’s 'Steadfast Defender 2024' exercises. As NATO gears up for the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises, Russia has been engaged in an information campaign seeking to cast NATO's actions as provocative, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update on Jan. 19.
Behind the Lines
Estonia expels Russian head of church. The Estonian government did not extend the residence permit of Metropolitan Yevgeniy of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, forcing him to leave by Feb. 6, the ERR public broadcaster reported on Jan. 18. Estonian authorities have accused Yevgeniy of public statements and actions in support of Russian aggression.
In Crimea, paramedics wear Ukrainian uniforms, drive cars stolen from Kherson. In Simferopol of the temporarily occupied Crimea, paramedics wear Ukrainian uniforms and drive cars stolen from Kherson.
Russian provocateurs Vovan and Lexus have been communicating with fighters from the International Legion on behalf of the fifth Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, to "recruit them into a private army" for a "revolution in Ukraine".
One of the ex-fighters mentioned that toward the end of the conversation with "Poroshenko," everything went wrong – the connection was poor, and the video was constantly glitching – the lips of the "fifth president" didn't sync with his words, and some of his gestures seemed repetitive.
It was also suspicious that the speaker enquired about weak parts on the front line, recruitment into the Legion, military pay, and the troops’ morale.
Three former fighters from the International Legion believed that Poroshenko was forming a personal security battalion and wanted to hire them as officers. The salary would be up to €12,000 per month, several times higher than their pay in the Legion.
Romanian protesters end blockade, Ukraine’s border guard service says. Romanian protesters have ended their blockade at the Porubne-Siret crossing along the Romanian-Ukrainian border, Border Guard Service reported. The crossing, which borders Chernivtsi Oblast, has been blocked intermittently since Jan. 13, as Romanian farmers and truck drivers cited high business costs.
Ukraine is third largest agricultural supplier to EU. Ukraine remains among the top three suppliers of agricultural products to the EU, even though the exports dropped to an almost pre-invasion level in autumn 2023, the European Commission's report said.
Court arrests investment banker Mazepa in connection to illegal land acquisition and sanctions detention of final suspect in businessman Hrynkevych's case. Civilian anti-corruption activists have worked on bringing these cases to light since 2015, and now the Ukrainian authorities are acting on them.
Microsoft systems hacked by Russian cyber espionage squad. Hacked "members of senior leadership team, employees in cybersecurity, legal, other functions". Stolen "emails and attached documents".
The Microsoft security team detected a nation-state attack on our corporate systems on January 12, 2024, and immediately activated our response process to investigate, disrupt malicious activity, mitigate the attack, and deny the threat actor further access. Microsoft has identified the threat actor as Midnight Blizzard, the Russian state-sponsored actor also known as Nobelium.
Protests against Russian propaganda and in solidarity with Ukraine in Modena on Saturday. Unfortunately, there’s a Putin Tour happening from the north to the south organised by several pro-Kremlin groups that are featuring a Russian propaganda film in private venues.
Meanwhile in Russia
Jacopo Iacoboni La Stampa: The disaster of the Russian economy—in one year for Moscow -$170 billion in exports (-30 %). Gas and oil lead the collapse, -24%. Crude oil at its lowest level for six months as per data from the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and Rosstat. The balance of payments plummet almost 5 times, from $238 billion USD in 2022 to $50.2 billion USD.
Until now, high oil prices had helped the Russian economy avoid collapse, but now prices are falling. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, in 2023 the average price of the main Russian oil brand, Urals, was 17% lower than in the previous year: 63 dollars per barrel versus 76.1 dollars in 2022. Proceeds from sales of oil and gas to the Russian federal budget fell by about 24% to $99.4 billion, according to data from the Finance Ministry.
This causes a collapse in the general volume of all Russian exports. Last year Russian exports (Rosstat and Russian Central Bank data processed by the Moscow Times ) reached only 422.7 billion dollars, 169.4 billion dollars (almost 30%) less than in 2022 (when they were state 592.1 billion dollars): this is the preliminary assessment provided by the Russian Central Bank.
Reuters: Russia has become China’s largest oil supplier. According to the report, Russia shipped 107.02 million metric tons of crude oil to China last year, which is the equivalent of 2.14 million barrels per day.
The condition of the heating networks in Russia has deteriorated to critical levels, and the collapse of its housing and utilities infrastructure has affected the occupied territories of Ukraine as well, Russian media outlets report with reference to Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data. There was also a significant increase in the number of accidents in some regions between 2018 and 2022.
The worst affected were Nizhny Novgorod (+372), Kirov (+332) and Sverdlovsk (+133) oblasts, Kabardino-Balkaria (+98), and the Republic of Karelia (+86). The anti-top ten continues with Moscow Oblast, where there were 85 more accidents in 2022 than in 2018, Perm Krai (+84), Novosibirsk Oblast (+58), the Republic of Sakha (+46) and the Republic of Dagestan (+31).
Jan 19—RFE/RL: Protests in Russia's Bashkortostan region continued today. More than 10 people have been detained after hundreds gathered on the central square in Ufa to support jailed Bashkir activist Fail Alsynov.
A bill providing for the confiscation of property of those convicted of “fakes” about the army and under a number of other criminal articles will be submitted to the State Duma for consideration on January 22. This was stated by the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin.
“Everyone who tries to destroy Russia, betrays it, must suffer a well-deserved punishment and compensate for the damage caused to the country at the expense of his property,” Volodin said.
He’s back: Belarusian dictator Lukashenko thanked Russia for their help last year and said that Belarus received Iskander missiles with nuclear warheads. "After the missiles arrived, countries lowered their voice especially those crazy ones on the border. God forbid the use of it."
Allied Support
Politico: Democrats mull 'protecting' Republican House Speaker to secure Ukraine aid. Hoping to secure assistance with Kyiv after the Pentagon said that the current funds ran out, several Democratic lawmakers reportedly contemplate throwing their votes behind Johnson if more hardline members of his party attempt to oust him, as they did to his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
NBC: President Joe Biden’s top aides told lawmakers in a private meeting that if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks, months at best. (Me: I’ll leave this here as information that is being circulated, but I’m sceptical about it.)
EU proposes transforming the European Peace Facility into a €5 billion annual Ukraine Assistance Fund, aiming to streamline support for Ukraine with a focus on joint procurement, training, and urgent needs.
Noel Report: The Netherlands handed over a mobile field hospital to Ukrainian border guards, the State Border Service of Ukraine reports. It is noted that the main feature of the hospital is the equipment for working at low temperatures.
Bloomberg: EU aims for 13th Russia sanctions package in February. The discussed 13th package could encompass further individual listings, stricter trade restrictions, and more measures against dodging sanctions via third-party countries and European companies, Bloomberg wrote.
The EU will have the capacity to produce at least 1.3 million shells by the end of the year, European Commissioner Thierry Breton said. The majority of artillery shells produced are destined for Ukraine.
PM Shmyhal: Ukraine fulfills 3 of 4 EU's additional recommendations. Ukraine has fulfilled three of the four additional recommendations presented by the European Commission in November 2023, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Jan. 19. The fourth point, a bill on lobbying, has been approved by the parliament in the first reading, the prime minister noted during a government meeting.
Ukraine Bonds: Lithuanian Minister of Economy and Innovation Aušrine Armonaitė believes that one of the sources of financing the country’s defense could be funds issued by the country’s residents on credit to the state.
“There are ways, for example, to borrow money from residents. I have heard criticism of the idea of such bonds, but there is a lot of finance that people still have. Maybe it’s better not to keep it in a sock, but to put it in a tank,” the minister said. According to her, the idea of bonds needs to be explained to residents.
Me: I would buy them if the Italian government offered them and I knew they were going to Ukraine.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico will meet Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhaľ next Wednesday in Uzhgorod. According to him, he will come to Ukraine with humanitarian aid and clarify once more that Slovakia will not help Ukraine militarily.
In the United States, 66-year-old Ilya Kan was arrested , accused of exporting “sensitive American technologies” to Russia. As reported on the website of the US Department of Justice, Kan is a citizen of the United States, Israel and Russia.
According to court documents, Kahn owns US companies Senesys Incorporated and Sensor Design Association, which develop software and test silicon wafers used for military aviation and space technology.
According to the American investigation, through these companies, Kahn participated in “multi-year schemes” for the acquisition and sale of technology from the United States for the Russian Research and Production Center “Electronic Computing Information Systems” (JSC NPC “Elvis”). The Russian company develops microcircuits for communication systems and telecommunications equipment. Since September 2022, the center has been under US sanctions due to its “critical role in assisting the Russian military in its invasion of Ukraine.”
“Kahn illegally shipped specialized technology from the United States to a Russian semiconductor manufacturer associated with numerous other sanctioned Russian entities,” the US Department of Justice said in a statement. According to the American department, technology exports occurred before and after the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine.
The Ministry of Justice clarifies that, in particular, in 2019, Kan exported several American-made microcircuits to the Elvis Research and Production Center, and in 2022 he transferred controllers and a radio transmitter to the enterprise through a transport company registered in Hong Kong.
“Each of these products required an export license from the Ministry of Commerce, which Kahn did not obtain,” it added.
Jan 19: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III conducted a counterpart call with Swedish Minister of Defence Pål Jonson on January 19 to discuss Sweden’s NATO accession, support to Ukraine, and the crisis in the Middle East.
The Secretary and Minister reaffirmed their commitment to Sweden joining NATO, and how their signing of the U.S.-Sweden Defense Cooperation Agreement in December was also a critical step to enhancing the defense relationship. The two officials reiterated their support for Ukraine and agreed on the importance of continued bilateral and multilateral collaboration. The Secretary and Minister concluded the call with a discussion on the illegal Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Walter Biot, former Captain of the Italian Navy, was caught red-handed selling NATO top secret documents (144) to his Russian handler. He’s just been sentenced to 20 years in prison.
CNN: how the war in Ukraine will be affected by the fact that a military aid package worth more than $60 billion for Ukraine is stuck in the US Congress. Here are the key points from the material:
Russia's war in Ukraine will most likely continue for several years. The fighting will continue for at least two years, several sources said, citing intelligence data. Some American and Western officials say the war could last up to five years.
American intelligence officials believe that the reduction in American funding will not have a serious impact on the situation in Ukraine in the near future. But in the long term, a lack of U.S. assistance could allow Russia to escalate its offensive.
A U.S. supply cut could limit Ukraine's ability to strike annexed Crimea and ships in the Black Sea. ATACMS long-range missiles were used in the strikes.
Both sides in the conflict are “too depleted in terms of troops and equipment to expect much progress in 2024,” and Ukraine will have a “more realistic option” to launch a new offensive in 2025, the sources said.
Zelensky invites Trump to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has extended an invitation to Donald Trump to visit Kyiv, with a specific condition attached: the former U.S. president must demonstrate his ability to bring an end to the war with Russia within 24 hours, as he once promised.
Me: If think this is a mistake. He may have been caught off guard, but Zelensky seems to have forgotten what happened the last time Trump contacted him. That communication led to an impeachment trial in the U.S. Congress. This is Matt Frei’s full interview:
New Hampshire: Donald Trump and his allies are bashing rival Nikki Haley before Tuesday’s primary. It's a sign that his campaign to retake the White House sees her as a threat. In this week’s Et tu Brute files, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott agreed to endorse the former president over Haley, who appointed him to the chamber when she was governor.
He’ll say anything, and lie and lie. Now Nikki Haley is the target.
Reuters: Commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah group are directing and overseeing Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping from Yemen, sources told Reuters. Tehran has provided drones and a variety of missiles, as well as data and intelligence support on ships. A Houthi spokesperson denied Iranian involvement. A Hezbollah spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
Programming notes…
RUSI Episode 8: Fighting Financial Crime: Insights with Danny Glaser
The financial crime and sanctions world has mushroomed into a global industry. Thousands of compliance officers, analysts, policymakers and law enforcement officials are involved in some element of this behemoth. Among these many thousands, a few figures have emerged as opinion formers – those who found themselves at the forefront of developments.
What am I reading…
Ok, so some are actually interested in what I’m reading, and my hugs go to you for the encouragement. I’ve got a few underway. I read books like I watch television: I make my evening choice based on how I’m feeling or if a particular choice has kept my eyes glued to the book. I have been known to walk into a bathroom with the current page-turner of the moment. Please send your suggestions which I will happily add to my library.
So here goes:
Yaroslav Trofimov, Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence (2024)
Paul Johnson, Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties (1991)
Gordon Corera, Russians Among Us: Sleeper Cells, Ghost Stories and the Hunt for Putin’s Spies (2020)
Nathan Leites, The Operational Code of the Politburo (1951)