Jan 24: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
In February and March 2022, Ukrainian law-makers and authorities weren’t sure if Western states would provide powerful armaments, and some short-range armaments for defence did trickle in at that time. They had waited because they thought that Ukraine would not withstand the Russian offensive.
Bucha changed everything: it was clear that Russia was waging a war of genocide and annihilation, akin to the world wars of the past. The U.S.., NATO partners and 15 other countries realised Russia’s strategic aims stretched beyond Ukraine, and they acted, providing Ukraine with the wherewithall to fight an offensive campaign.
Since November 2023, Ukraine has lost 2 months and countless lives as our politicians waver. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba called on European Union ministers to provide Ukraine with more weapons, emphasizing that quantity and range influence the duration of the war. See the news from NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, below.
NYT: EU and US officials are worried about the possible increase in the supply of North Korean weapons to Russia. Unlike with artillery shells, NK is not shipping its older equipment. An analysis showed the missiles provided to Russia are from recent design.
Stories we’re following…
Jan 24: The terror in Kharkiv continues: Ukrainians of Kharkiv were hit by 3 Russian strikes between Jan 23 and Jan 24 during the night. After the attacks early this morning, there are new hits on residential area's. From what is known, 7 people are injured. Emergency services are working..
Russian airstrikes in Kharkiv and Kyiv kill 12 people and at least 100 wounded. A total of 41 various types of missiles were used.
Luke Harding in Kyiv: “Just back from the scene of the latest Russian missile strike in central Kyiv. The blast wrecked Lokomotiv sports club, and shattered windows in the dormitory opposite and a high-right rise block. Five people killed in attacks in Kharkiv and the capital. Tuesday morning terror.”
On Telegram, governor Oleh Synehubov said 12 people were killed and 100 wounded in Kharkiv in strikes on apartment buildings. Russia launched a total of 12 missiles of various types such as S-300, Kh-32 and Iskander-M on Kharkiv.
In Kyiv, 20 people including three children had been wounded across at least three districts, and that several apartments and non-residential buildings had caught fire, mayor Vitalii Klitschko said.
Maria Avdeeva: Body of the girl found under the rubble in Kharkiv. The death toll now stands at eight. Sruggling to find breath today.
"Two people have already died in Pavlohrad as a result of a Russian missile attack," Governor of Dnipropetrovsk region Serhiy Lysak said.
U.S. Ambassador Bridget A. Brink: “Early this morning, Russia launched a series of missile strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Pavlohrad, killing at least 5 people and injuring more than 40, including children. Ukraine needs our continued support now, to protect itself against these cruel attacks on civilians.”
Russia launched missile strikes on Ukraine’s military production facilities and successfully hit all intended targets, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Tuesday. (Me: they deny everything.)
Russian forces launched a missile attack at critical infrastructure in the morning of Jan. 23 in the city of Shostka, Sumy Oblast, regional authorities reported. Seven communities were hit by Russian missiles on Jan 22.
Russian attacks in Kramatorsk kill 1, injure 1. "Even cities of Donetsk (Oblast) relatively far from the front are still dangerous. There is always a threat of shelling," said Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin.
Energy Ministry: Russian attacks cause fire, destroy equipment at Kharkiv Oblast energy facility. The Energy Ministry did not specify the extent of the damage caused by the attacks and ensuing fire, nor did it say the type of equipment that was destroyed. There were no casualties in the attack.
Russia launched 41 missiles at Ukraine early on Tuesday and air defences destroyed 21 of them, the Ukrainian military said.
Combat Situation Update
Volodymyr Fityo, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ground Forces said about the recent capture of Krokhmal'ne by Russian forces:
"It is a small village where 45 people lived before the Russian invasion. The settlement is in ruins and it was not possible for our defenders to stay and defend it. Staying there would be a threat to their lives. We ensured safety of our troops, and took up better positions to defend. And by the way, I think the enemy had a very 'happy' night in Krokhmal'ne which ended their desire to go any further.”
Russian energy company Novatek is likely to resume large-scale operations at its Ust-Luga processing complex and Baltic Sea terminal within weeks, at worst, months, following a drone attack. Reportedly two storage tanks and a pumping station were damaged.
Activists of the Yellow Ribbon partisant movement unfurled the Ukrainian flag on the top of the Pakhkal-Kaya in the Crimean mountains.
Ukrainian Heroes: Ukrainian intelligence officers covered more than 600km on foot through enemy territory to destroy a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber and damage two more at Soltsy Air Base, the Main Intelligence Directorate reports.
Lt. Col. Oleh Babiy commanded the operation. On August 30, 2023, while covering the retreat of his brothers-in-arms, Oleh was mortally wounded during an ambush.
Oleh and his group have conducted 9 succesful recon operations in the Russian rear, 12 measures for local resistance organization and found up to 70 important strategic objects which were used by the Ukrainian Army to inflict damage upon.
The virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein format) has started yesterday. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin delivered an opening speech in which he praised countries for supplying additional (military) aid to Ukraine and called for "more life-saving ground-based air defense systems and interception assets."
Noel Report: "The process of F-16 training is underway, the pilots are already flying in the sky with instructors. Just like we talked about a month ago, well, you need to fly a certain number of hours. Both in Denmark and the US training is ongoing," Air Force spokesman Ignat reported.
Noel Report: An Ilyushin Il-76 military transport airplane reportedly crashed in Korochansky District in the Bilhorod region in Russia, Russian media report. The moment the Il-76 plane crashed was caught on video. It seems the plane already occurred severe damage before going down to the ground.
Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, reports that a new drone counter system has been developed for the AFU. It generates white noise which makes Russian drones uncontrollable. The radius of operation is from 250 meters. It is already in serial production.
Russian proxy leader in occupied Moldovan territory calls for military preparedness. Vadim Krasnoselsky, the Russian proxy leader in Transnistria, the Russian-occupied region of Moldova, called for increased military drills and heightened readiness in an address on Jan. 22.
Behind the Lines
Military intelligence: Cyberattack on Russian scientific research center deals 'devastating' damage. Ukraine's military intelligence agency confirmed the media reports on the attack, saying that the hackers allegedly destroyed 280 servers and two petabytes of data.
Ombudsman: Russia deports 17 children with disabilities from occupied Donetsk Oblast. Russia transferred 17 Ukrainian children with disabilities from the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast to a rehabilitation center near Moscow as part of the forced passportization campaign in the occupied territories of Ukraine, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Jan. 22.
Law enforcement officers detained Roman Hrynkevich while trying to cross the border. On the morning of January 22, he tried to leave Ukraine from Odesa. He was wanted by the SBI for suspected fraud in the purchase of clothing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Prosecutor General: Ukrainian law enforcement has seized over 260 Russia-linked properties since February 2022. Ukrainian law enforcement has seized over 260 properties in Ukraine directly and indirectly linked to Russians since the start of the full-scale invasion, Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said at a press conference on Jan. 22.
Ukrainian government to propose banning entry of Russian-registered vehicles for 50 years. The Ukrainian government will submit a proposal to the National Security and Defense Council to ban all vehicles registered in Russia or owned by Russian citizens from entering Ukraine for 50 years, according to an order published on the government’s web portal.
The Dutch investigation service FIOD has arrested three Dutch people in an international police operation. The trio is suspected of violating sanctions against Russia by being part of an international smuggling network.
The price of gas in the European Union fell 13 times below Gazprom's forecasts. At the beginning of the week it was trading at 300 dollars per 1,000 cubic meter (26-27 euros/MWh), with a price drop of over 16% since the beginning of the year. In August 2022, when the price of gas peaked at $3,600 per 1,000 cubic meters, Gazprom threatened Europe with gas at $4,000 and Medvedev at 5,000 euros.
The film, “20 Days in Mariupol”, has been nominated for an Oscar in the category of Best Documentary.
Meanwhile in Russia
Mediazona: The Russian State Duma will consider a bill on confiscation of property from those convicted of “spreading fake news about the Russian army”
UN Security Council: Russia’s foreign minister has clashed with the US and Ukraine’s other supporters at the UN security council after Moscow ruled out any peace plan backed by Kyiv and the west, and China warned that further global chaos could affect the slowing world economy. He told the security council that peace plans presented by Ukraine and the west were “a road to nowhere”. The US deputy ambassador, Robert Wood, countered that it was Vladimir Putin’s “single-minded pursuit of the obliteration of Ukraine and subjugation of its people that is prolonging” the war that began with Moscow’s 2022 invasion.
Queues have been reported in Moscow and other Russian cities to give signatures in support of presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin, who wants an end to the war. More on this in the next post.
Allied Support
Borrell: EU foreign ministers agree on plan to transfer profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. European Union foreign ministers have reached a political agreement to finalize the work on transferring revenues from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine based on the proposal suggested in December, EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Jan. 22.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said the Alliance is contracting $1.2 billion in 155mm artillery ammunition production.
“The war in Ukraine has become a battle for ammunition, and it is important that Allies are able to replenish their stockpiles while continuing to support Ukraine.”
Lack of U.S. military aid: The lack of funding affects not only the ability of the US to send new weapons to Ukraine, but also the ability to help repair the ones that were previously provided, Spokesman of the US Department of Defense, Patrick Ryder, said this at a briefing.
Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis arrived in Brussels on Monday with a mission to reinvigorate the EU’s support for Ukraine in the face of continued Russia’s “madness”.
If they [Ukraine] are unsuccessful, we have to be ready to answer the question, who will contain Russia then? And there’s nothing else who could contain Russia, apart from NATO and apart from the countries who are closest to Russia. And that means also my country. It means Poland. That means other countries on the eastern flank. And so it’s a battle of self preservation as well for Europe.
Latvia’s foreign minister, Krišjānis Kariņš, told reporters on Monday that “we have to open up our eyes and realise that Russia will not stop its war in Ukraine – the only way that Russia will stop is if it’s actively stopped.” He added:
The Ukrainians are willing to put up the fight. The Ukrainians need our western, undivided support – European Union support.
So we have to come finally to the decision to make sure that we have the funding for Ukraine for the coming years, so they can continue to sustain their government.
And we also have to make sure that we provide the weapons and the ammunition that they need in order to do this task.
For anyone who thinks that it’s expensive to support Ukraine, that this money is better spent elsewhere, I can only say it will only get more expensive in the future. If we do not help Ukraine stop Russia now, it will be only all the more expensive for us later, because Russia will not stop.
EU will impose a Russian aluminum embargo in new sanctions. Challenges in targeting large sectors like nuclear energy and LNG lead to a focus on Russian imports, with efforts to hinder high-tech weapon components. Sanctions aim to counter circumvention.
Germany will hand over military helicopters to Ukraine, German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius said. According to him, Ukraine will receive 6 SeaKing MK41 multipurpose helicopters along with a set of spare parts and will also provide training.
In Kyiv, Poland’s Donald Tusk said that there is nothing more important than supporting Ukraine in its war effort against Russia.
Tusk spoke sharply about the demonstration of a policy of neutrality by some leaders of European Union member states against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"Today, anyone in the free world who pretends to be neutral, maintains an even distance or demonstrates it towards Ukraine and Russia deserves the darkest place in political hell,” Tusk emphasized.
Zelensky announced a new defense package from Poland.
"There is a new Polish defense package. We appreciate your continued help. There is a new form of our cooperation for the sake of a larger scale of weapons purchases for Ukrainian needs - this is a Polish loan for Ukraine.
The possibility of future joint production of weapons was also discussed with the Prime Minister today. Thank you for supporting Ukraine," Zelensky emphasized.
"In 2024, Belgium intends to provide €611 million in military aid to Ukraine and has made a long-term commitment to support the modernisation of the Ukrainian Defence Forces," Defense Minister Umerov reports.
DW: Poland and the Baltic states propose to ban LNG imports from Russia
A ban on imports of liquefied natural gas and aluminum from #Russia is proposed to be included in the 13th package of sanctions being discussed in the #EU.
In addition, Poland and the Baltic states propose to ban scientific cooperation and funding of joint scientific research. Other proposals by the four countries include further measures to combat Russia's circumvention of sanctions, tougher restrictions in the aviation sector and an expansion of the list of banned products used in the production of drones.
Elina Valtonen, Finland’s foreign minister, has underscored the need for “significantly more volume” and long-term support for Ukraine. Regarding military assistance to Ukraine, Valtonen stated:
Finland has been one of the strongest supporters of Ukraine, also on a bilateral basis, though we deem it important that the European Union is unified in this and each country contributes according to the capital key.
So whichever means is necessary to fulfil the immediate needs that Ukraine has now, but also our position is very firm on this: we have to find a strategic, long-term way of also ramping up our common European defence industry and our capabilities.
Canada's Minister Blair announces a $20 million donation of ten multi-purpose boats to Ukraine, aiding in maritime operations. Additionally, Canada supports F-16 training for Ukraine and joins capability coalitions.
The Turkish parliament’s general assembly debated Sweden’s Nato membership bid on Tuesday, three sources from parliament said. Erdoğan, has been blocking Sweden’s membership to extract concessions from Sweden and other Nato members. The parliament’s foreign affairs commission has approved the bid, raising hopes that it will be approved by the full parliament and signed into law by Erdoğan.
Orbán said he had invited Sweden’s prime minister to visit and negotiate his country joining the Nato military alliance, a process that Hungary and Turkey have delayed. On X, Orban said:
Today I sent an invitation letter to prime minister Ulf Kristersson for a visit to Hungary to negotiate on Sweden’s Nato accession.
The only time Trump mentions someone is when they’re giving him help of some sort, and will turn as quickly against them when they’re not needed anymore. If he’s praised Orban, there’s a reason.
Scott Lucas on Sky commenting on the New Hampshire race and other aspects of the GOP nomination:
A Mexican border security deal in the US Senate is being finalised in a compromise aimed at unlocking Republican support to replenish US wartime aid for Ukraine. But far-right House Republicans under the sway of Donald Trump have indicated that they want to block any bipartisan deal in order to hamper Joe Biden’s prospects for re-election as president – even if it leaves chaos at the US-Mexico border. “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating,” Troy Nehls, a Texas Republican, told CNN.
Haley is still in the race: “I’ve got bad news for the political establishment: I’m not going anywhere…except to my sweet South Carolina. We’re not going to let them coronate Donald Trump when 48 states haven’t voted.”
In New Hampshire: Haley obtained 43.5%; Trump got 54.9%
North Korea is accused of supplying weaponry to Russia in breach of international law. In a Guardian exclusive this morning, Andrew Roth writes that UK intelligence has sent photographs backing up those accusations to UN experts.
An unpublished UK defence intelligence report seen by the Guardian shows imagery taken between September and December of three Russian ships, the Maia, Angara and Maria, loading containers at North Korea’s revived Najin port before transiting to Russian ports in the far east. While the agency said it could not identify what was in the containers, it followed a US announcement last week that ballistic missiles from North Korea had been used by Russia in Ukraine last week.
The report, along with other evidence from the US and other countries, was provided to the UN panel of experts on North Korean proliferation, which is expected next month to publish its first final report since suspected North Korean shipments of ammunition to Russia sharply increased this year.
The deliveries have been cited as enabling military strikes against Ukraine in December and January that “killed dozens of people and injured hundreds more”.
Prosecutors in Kharkiv told the Guardian that suspected fragments of North Korean-made Iskander missiles had been sent to Kyiv for analysis and said the missiles had subtle differences: hand-drawn lettering for serial numbers, and a different nozzle exhaust cone and welding.