Jan 26: Buonasera Mag
Day 337: UASitRep RUmissiles Bakhmut Simferopol BEL UAtv jets drones tanks Rostec ArthurE Prigozhin Djokovic ECHR-A&Ps- Zelensky Halushka Avdeeva Amanpour Kallas Lautman Ben-Ghiat Rutenberg Zubrin
Catching up
Hop over the Scott Lucas’s EA Worldview for the latest up-dates from the US and the Middle East as well as Europe.
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Olena Halushka: “Russia is holding now another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine. In order to stop this terrorism our country needs the longer-range missiles to strike the russian launch sites. Anything short of that means a tiring fight against consequences not the reason.”
Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles on Jan. 26. Head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, said that the first missiles have already been intercepted. Governors of many Ukrainian oblasts urge residents to remain in shelters. Air raid alert is on in all Ukrainian regions.
Ukrainian air defences shot down 47 of the 55 missiles Russian forced fired at Ukraine, the country’s top general has said on Thursday. Reuters reports that Moscow used the Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile, among other models, general Valery Zaluzhny said on his Telegram channel. Twenty of the incoming missiles were shot down around the area of the capital Kyiv, he added.
Energy infrastructure hit in Odesa, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Missile attacks damaged at least three energy facilities – one in Odesa Oblast and two in Zaporizhizhia Oblast – overnight and in the morning of Jan. 26, local authorities reported.
Defense Ministry: Russian forces intensify assault in direction of Bakhmut, Vuhledar. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported heavy fighting near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. Maliar said Russian forces were throwing a significant number of personnel, weapons, and military equipment to try and break Ukraine’s defensive lines.
Ukrainian intelligence: 5,800 Russian troops currently located in Belarus. The focus on Russian movements in Belarus comes amid speculation that Russia could launch a new large-scale offensive from the territory of Ukraine's northern neighbor, after the first attempt failed in March 2022.
Some television audiences in Crimea and Russia’s Belgorod region saw a speech from Ukrainian President Zelensky on Wednesday when tuning into different Russian TV networks- officials in Crimea accused the U.S. of supplying Ukraine’s intelligence agencies with the broadcast-hijacking tech.
President Zelensky signs law increasing penalties for desertion and other military offenses, blocking reduced sentences and raising minimum penalties (human rights activists say the legislation infringes on soldiers’ right to legal defence).
Kuleba: Ukraine’s next task includes receiving Western-made fighter jets. Ukraine's new tasks ahead include getting Western-type fighter jets, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter on Jan. 25. He added that imposing new sanctions against Russia and implementing the Peace Formula is also on the list.
Ukrainian intelligence: Bayraktar manufacturer donates 2 drones to Armed Forces. “We are infinitely grateful to the Baykar company for its uncompromising and constant support in the most difficult times for our state,” the Ukrainian intelligence said.
The United States will deliver 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, a senior US official said Wednesday, adding to a growing fleet of Western armor being assembled for an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian invasion.
Training on Abrams tanks could begin in ‘weeks, not months.’ The Pentagon will likely finalize a training plan for Ukrainian soldiers on M1 Abrams tanks in “weeks, not months,” John Kirby, the White House’s strategic communications coordinator for national security, told reporters on Jan. 25.
Lockheed Martin’s chief operating officer told FT that the U.S. arms manufacturer is ready to supply F-16 aircraft if European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv.
The Russian Reaction: Reuters reports that the secretary of Russia’s security council, Nikolai Patrushev, has also said today that the US and Nato were parties to the conflict in Ukraine and were seeking to drag out the fighting. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov said:
There are constant statements from European capitals and from Washington that the sending of various weapons systems, including tanks, to Ukraine in no way means the involvement of these countries or Nato in the hostilities that are taking place in Ukraine. We categorically disagree. In Moscow, everything that both the alliance and the capitals I mentioned are doing is perceived as direct involvement in the conflict. We see that it is growing.
Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec skirts sanctions to buy electronic warfare equipment in the West to use in Ukraine (journalists at iStories traced the shell companies used in the scheme).
NATO chief: Russia planning new offensives, Ukraine needs more weapons. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on allies to provide heavier and more advanced systems to Ukraine “to win back territory and prevail as a sovereign state in Europe.” The path to peace in Ukraine “lies through the supply of weapons,” Scholz said in a Jan. 25 interview to Welt.
German minister: Leopard tanks to arrive in Ukraine within 3 months. “This is an important game change, possibly also for this war, at least in the current phase,” Pistorius told reporters after a cabinet meeting, as quoted by the Associated Press.
Germany will hand over 10,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine next month, - Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov. About 30,000 Starlinks are currently operating in Ukraine. Recently, Ukraine received 8,000 terminals from Poland.
Axios: US asks Israel to deliver Hawk anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, Israel refuses. U.S. reportedly asked the Israeli government to transfer its old Hawk anti-aircraft missiles in storage to Ukraine, but Israel refused, three Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also said in an interview published on Jan. 24 that the Netherlands is considering delivering 18 Leopards to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Swedish Defense Minister Paul Johnson said he does not rule out sending its Stridsvagn 122 tanks to Ukraine.
UNIAN: Slovakia ready to discuss MiG-29 jets transfer to Ukraine. Slovakia is ready to discuss the transfer of Soviet-made MiG-29 jet fighters to Ukraine, Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad’ said on Jan. 25, according to UNIAN news agency.
5 head regional prosecutors dismissed amid major reshuffle. The heads dismissed were in charge of Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kirovohrad oblasts, according to a statement released by the Prosecutor General’s Office.
A German citizen, Arthur E, was arrested at Munich airport on suspicion of treason for allegedly passing intelligence onto Russia, the prosecutor general’s office said today. He is said to be an associate of Carsten L, an employee of the German foreign intelligence service (BND) who was arrested in December on suspicion of spying for Russia.
Russia will be deprived of the right to host the UEFA Super Cup. The match between the winners of the Champions League and the Europa League was to be held in Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan, in 2023.
A London law firm representing a Russian mercenary who threatened to sue a British journalist is under investigation for allegedly breaching rules to protect free speech. Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch known as “Putin’s chef” and who controls the Wagner Group of mercenaries, instructed Discreet Law to bring defamation proceedings against Eliot Higgins, the journalist who founded the investigative publishers Bellingcat.
The Australian Open: Tumaini Carayol and Nino Bucci report that Srdjan Djokovic, the father of Novak Djokovic, has been pictured posing for photos with Vladimir Putin supporters at the Australian Open on Wednesday night.
Wopke Hoekstra: “The European Court of Human Rights has confirmed Russia's involvement in the downing of flight #MH17. An important milestone and the first time that an international court has ruled on this matter. This is a clear signal to Russia.
Today's [Jan 25] decision is a crucial next step in the case that the Netherlands has filed against Russia at the @ECHR_CEDH. We will continue to do everything in our power to achieve justice for all 298 victims of flight #MH17 and their loved ones.”
Jim Rutenberg, The Untold Story of ‘Russiagate’ and the Road to War in Ukraine- NYT
I’m posting this again because it was such a good article.
On the night of July 28, 2016, as Hillary Clinton was accepting the Democratic presidential nomination in Philadelphia, Donald J. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, received an urgent email from Moscow. The sender was a friend and business associate named Konstantin Kilimnik. A Russian citizen born in Soviet Ukraine, Kilimnik ran the Kyiv office of Manafort’s international consulting firm, known for bringing cutting-edge American campaign techniques to clients seeking to have their way with fragile democracies around the world.
Kilimnik didn’t say much, only that he needed to talk, in person, as soon as possible. Exactly what he wanted to talk about was apparently too sensitive even for the tradecraft the men so fastidiously deployed — encrypted apps, the drafts folder of a shared email account and, when necessary, dedicated “bat phones.” But he had made coded reference — “caviar” — to an important former client, the deposed Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who had fled to Russia in 2014 after presiding over the massacre of scores of pro-democracy protesters. Manafort responded within minutes, and the plan was set for five days later.
Observer Editorial, The Observer view on Belarus’s rogue regime and its ties to Russia
As Belarus’s democratically elected president is tried for treason in absentia, she demands deeper sanctions on the brutal regime.
A show trial carries with it a noxious whiff of Soviet times and in the case of Belarus, a country trapped by its past, the allusion is wholly appropriate. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, elected president in 2020 in a contest stolen by Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, was accused of treason by a court in Minsk last week. Her trial is a sham and a farce. The opposition leader is one among countless victims of an illegitimate rogue regime that oppresses its people and threatens the security of Europe.
Lukashenko, in power since 1994, has long been notorious for his authoritarian rule. But the situation has steadily deteriorated since the huge pro-democracy protests three years ago that nearly brought him down. Belarus now holds about 1,500 political prisoners. Tsikhanouskaya is not among them; she is being tried in absentia. But many others are less fortunate, including her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, whom she replaced as opposition leader after his arrest. He was later jailed for 18 years.
Robert Zubrin, Send M1 Abrams Tanks to Ukraine- National Review
The German government has elected not to send desperately needed Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Furthermore, the Germans continue to deny permission to the many other European countries who have Leopard tanks to send theirs to Ukraine. According to the German government, Germany does not want to “go it alone” by being the only Western country to send main-battle tanks to Ukraine.
This is transparently an excuse. Poland has already sent over 300 Soviet-manufactured tanks to Ukraine. The Germans say this does not count — only Western-made tanks do. The French recently announced that they would send light tanks, and the British are sending Challenger main-battle tanks. The German say those don’t count either. The tanks must be sent by “a nuclear power.” Britain and France are both nuclear powers. That doesn’t matter. According to the Germans, only American M1 Abrams tanks will do.
Bell, Vandoome & Ataman, High-ranking Russian officials are defecting. This man is aiding them- CNN
“The last 10 years I do a lot of things to protect the human rights and other people. But in this moment, I understood that my mission to help other people created a very high risk to my family,” Osechkin told CNN from France, where he’s lived since 2015 after he fled Russia and claimed asylum. He now has full-time police protection.
He’s become the champion of a growing number of high-level Russian officials defecting to the West, emboldened and disgruntled by the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. He says ex-generals and intelligence agents are among their number.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown his determination to hunt the Kremlin’s perceived enemies overseas. Osechkin has been arrested in absentia in Russia and is currently on the Russian authorities “wanted list.” France has provided him sanctuary, but security is far harder to come by.
Programming Note…
