Jan 28: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Maria Avdeeva: Kyiv's bookshops offer a unique discount today: Bring in Russian language books for recycling, and the funds go towards purchasing a truck for the air defense unit. The place has never been more crowded. If that’s what Putin had in mind?
Stories we’re following…
Media: Russian drone attacks volunteer car in Donetsk Oblast's Chasiv Yar. A Russian FPV (first-person-view) drone struck a volunteer's car in the front-line town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast on Jan. 26, destroying a part of humanitarian aid for locals, according to journalists of Ukrainska Pravda media outlet, who witnessed the event.
Jan 29 overnight: 4 out of 8 Shahed drones were shot down. In addition 2 Iskander-M and 3 S-300 missiles were fired of which the damage is being determined.
More than 100 villages in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts came under fire.
Russian attacks over past day kill 2, injure 8, including 2 children. Russian forces attacked Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, causing damage to buildings but no casualties.
Olena Zelenska: Currently, the return of each Ukrainian child from Russia is really complicated. Therefore, we need help. I want each and every parliament worldwide to hear this. Decisive joint actions are needed now. It is the only way to give children a chance for justice and a happy future at home.
A Russian team shot and killed a brother and sister from Khotin, Sumy oblast, this morning, the the regional military administration said. The brother and sister were living in the village of Andriivka, which is located in the five-kilometre border zone.
This is the town of Avdiivka. There are citizens still living there amongst the constant shelling. Notice the conditions. Video: Noel Reports.
Ukraine retrieves bodies of 77 fallen soldiers. The bodies of 77 fallen Ukrainian soldiers were returned to the Ukraine-controlled territory on Jan. 26, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of the Prisoners of War reported.
SBU charges 2 former lawmakers in alleged theft of more than 30 ships from Ukraine's merchant fleet. The two lawmakers previously belonged to the banned pro-Russian political party Opposition Platform — for Life, founded by controversial lawmaker Yurii Boiko and pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedvhuk.
Combat Situation Update
Heavy fighting is reported near Kyslivka, where Russians have restarted offensive operations. Previously, Russians were unable to advance from Yahidne towards Ivanivka. Russian sources claim that they have captured Kotlyarivka but there is no visual confirmation.
The Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Ukrainian soldiers are continuing to expand their foothold on the Kherson front, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook, information as of 06:00 on 28 January.
the Odesa Operational Strategic Group on the Kherson front, the Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to expand the bridgehead. Regardless of heavy losses, the Russian army has not given up its attempts to drive Ukrainian troops from their positions. The Russians mounted two unsuccessful assault operations over the past 24 hours.
"Russian forces have no strategic successes in eastern Ukraine. But they are trying to advance, as evidenced by the amount of destroyed enemy equipment. Kupyansk remains their main priority," AFU spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo said
Ukrainian counter-attacks were holding Russians back from taking full control of Avdiivka, the UK Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence report below.
The political and military leadership of Greece approved the transfer of obsolete weapon systems to Ukraine. Greece is armed with the TOR, OSA and S-300 air defense systems, as well as ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns and ammunition for the aforementioned.
Me: The Greeks are getting new weapons from American weapons industry. That’s one way to get around the GOP blocking aid. Not great, but better than nothing at all.
Noel Report: Cyber specialists from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine destroyed the entire internal IT infrastructure of IPL Consulting company, which worked in the interests of the Russian military-industrial complex. Data(bases) and servers, 60TB in size, were destroyed.
Peter Dickinson, Putin’s Achilles Heel: Ukraine targets Russia’s vital but vulnerable energy industry.
Ukrainian drones struck a major oil refinery in southern Russia on January 25, sparking a blaze that highlighted an emerging new front in the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin almost two years ago. The incident was the latest in a series of recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as Ukraine seeks to bring the war home to Russia by targeting the country’s vital but vulnerable oil and gas industry.
Since the start of 2024, Ukraine has launched a number of drone strikes on energy facilities across Russia. These have included the first successful attacks on targets close to St. Petersburg, almost one thousand kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. Officials at Russian energy company Novatek confirmed on January 20 that they had been forced to temporarily suspend some operations at the huge Ust-Luga fuel export terminal on the Gulf of Finland due to a fire started by Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian troops and their beloved furry friends. I love watching these videos.
Behind the Lines
Media: Ukrainian MPs work on bill allowing deferment of military service for monthly fee. The bill could significantly change the approach to deferment. In contrast to plans reportedly considered by the Office of the President in late 2023, the bill would allow deferment of different categories of employees, regardless of how much tax is paid on their salaries.
SBU uncovers mass fraud in weapons procurement. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) announced on Jan. 27 the discovery of a corruption scheme related to the procurement of almost 100,000 mortar shells, amounting to nearly $40 million.
Ukraine's railway company to hire veterans to protect infrastructure with drones. Ukraine's state-owned railway company Ukrzaliznytsia said on Jan. 25 that it is creating a unit that will use drones to monitor and protect railroad infrastructure.
Moscow court again extends pre-trial detention of jailed US journalist Gershkovich. The court's Jan. 26 decision means that Evan Gershkovich will have spent a year in pre-trial detention by the end of newly announced extension.
Jailed US journalist spends 100th day in pre-trial detention in Russia. Despite repeated requests from RFE/RL, the U.S. State Department has not yet officially designated Alsu Kurmasheva as "wrongfully detained," as it has done with Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, both of whom are U.S. citizens currently held in Russian jails.
Deterrence: The US is planning to station nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years amid a growing threat from Russia, according to a report. Warheads three times as strong as the Hiroshima bomb would be located at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk under the proposals, the Daily Telegraph reported.
The CIA's new recruitment video targeting Russian intelligence officers. The Agency is taking full advantage of the fact that there may be men who are unwilling to fight, which has been raised as an issue in the post by the UK Intelligence services. This doesn’t mean that they are against the war per se: we simply don’t know what their thoughts are on Russia occupying land that isn’t theirs to have.
National Resistance Center: Russia recruits Belarusian youth to its military universities. Russian military representatives organize open days in Belarusian district centers, inviting citizens to join Russian military academies and become officers, the National Resistance Center reported on Jan. 27.
Further recruitment by the Russian authorities to send soldiers to the front will not happen before the March presidential election. Russian males are travelling now before the hammer comes down in April.
RFE/RL: Ukrainian surveillance cameras send data to Chinese manufacturers. Hundreds of thousands of surveillance cameras used in Ukraine transmit information to servers of their Chinese state-linked manufacturers, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) investigative project Schemes reported on Jan. 25.
Me: By the way, this was a problem in Italy as well. The Italian government under Conte I (2018-19) had ordered cameras that were installed in the Prime Minister’s quarters. When Draghi became PM, he got them removed.
Investigation: Russia imports Taiwanese metalworking equipment despite sanctions. Taiwan has become the biggest exporter of metalworking equipment to Russia during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a new joint investigation by the Russian independent media The Insider and Taiwanese The Reporter, published on Jan. 27, revealed.
Pro-Russia hacking group announces plans to target Ukrainian government. The hacking group NoName05716 claims to be preparing to target Ukrainian government with help of other hacking groups 22С, Skillnet, CyberDragon, Federal Legion, People’s Cyber Army and Phoenix. Cyberattacks have been an area of concern for Ukrainian officials since the start of the war, with the contact group on defence of Ukraine forming an IT coalition of 12 countries.
Meanwhile in Russia
Lukashenko visited Putin yesterday. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Russia's Saint Petersburg for an official visit on Jan. 27, according to his press service.
Media: Russian convict recruits no longer receive pardons for fighting in Ukraine. Moscow has been recruiting convicts for its war since summer 2022, first under the auspices of the Wagner mercenary company and then directly under the Russian Defense Ministry.
Anti-war Russian presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin will not submit signatures collected abroad when applying for candidacy.
To formally register as a candidate, Nadezhdin is required to gather 100,000 signatures from voters, with no more than 2,500 coming from any single region. As of January 26, according to its website, the campaign had collected more than 197,000 signatures.
On January 24, multiple Russian Telegram channels noted that Russian law prohibits candidates from using signatures collected abroad from Russian citizens who do not live permanently abroad, and that a violation of this rule could give the CEC grounds to reject Nadezhdin’s application. A representative of the Nadezhdin campaign told Agentstvo that this is not the reason for their decision not to submit signatures collected outside of Russia.
Read it here—Washington Post: Russia aims to create new world order via alliance with China. Russia is attempting to deepen its economic and diplomatic ties with China and the Global South to allow it to challenge the international financial system dominated by the U.S. and to undermine the West.
László Toroczkai, leader of the Hungarian far-right Mi Hazank party, has announced claims to Ukraine's Zakarpattia Oblast if Ukraine loses its statehood as a result of the war. He calls for an immediate ceasefire, peace and a negotiated settlement. The Hungarian government has been investing heavily in the region, amounting to over 1.3 billion euro to Hungarian minority organisations in Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine, and to lesser extent into Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, and other countries over a ten-year period. Orban has poured over 115 million euro into Zakarpattia alone since 2010. Ten percent of the population of the oblast consider themselves from Hungarian decent.
The Magyar Nemzet newspaper, part of the Hungarian prime minister's informal media empire, has published an article criticising the situation with Ukrainian media prior to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's visit to Uzhhorod, Magyar Nemzet reported.
Magyar Nemzet, in particular, criticises the activities of the Media Center Ukraine: "They provide additional information to correspondents visiting the Eastern European country about what is permitted and what is not. For example, they explain how to correctly describe and pronounce settlement names in Ukrainian while omitting their original Russian names. According to this, Kiev is Kyiv, Kharkov is Kharkiv, Dnepr is Dnipro, Donbass is Donbas, and Odessa is only Odesa."
The article also criticises independent Ukrainian media outlets, claiming that they publish materials that satisfy Ukrainian authorities using George Soros' or European taxpayers' money.
Military leaders have been making public statements for the past week, warning politicians of the need to increase preparedness and capabilities to defend and deter against a future Russian threat or attack against a NATO member state. Radio programmes are openly asking callers what their views are about some form of conscription, and governments are taking steps to beef up their military stores and posture. Our publics got very used to not having to think about defence in these terms.
Allied Support
Denmark opens new embassy office in Mykolaiv. "In addition to the embassy in Kyiv, we are now also permanently present in Mykolaiv, for which Denmark has taken a special responsibility in reconstruction," Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said.
EU ready to extend protection for Ukrainian refugees past March 2025. The EU activated the Temporary Protection Directive in March 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to Eurostat, over 4.2 million Ukrainian refugees are currently registered for temporary protections to legally access housing, find work, and receive social benefits in the EU states.
Ukraine and Lithuania will begin joint production of drones. The Foreign Ministers of both countries discussed steps to increase production. This was announced during a joint press conference today.
The IT coalition expands with the Netherlands joining, contributing €10 million. The coalition, supporting Ukraine's defense in IT, communication, and cybersecurity, includes 12 countries. Denmark also allocates over €12 million for Ukrainian cybersecurity in the coalition.
Writer needs publishing house. This story saddened me. Oleksander is an accomplished author, with nine books to his name. In 2023, he became a laureate of the Yuriy Shevelev Prize for the book "Job's Call Sign. Chronicles of the Invasion."
Sweden has sent over 1,100 tons of aid to Ukraine's energy sector. Stockholm has sent 93 shipments of aid, including generators, transformers, substations, and other equipment for repair works at energy facilities following Russian attacks, the Energy Ministry said after the "Restoration of the Ukrainian energy sector: the opportunities for Swedish business" webinar.
White House confirms Biden, Scholz to meet in Washington in February. U.S. President Joe Biden is due to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Feb. 9 in Washington, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Jan. 27.
The International Court of Justice ordered Israel to prevent acts of genocide against the Palestinians and do more to help civilians while denying Palestinian hopes of a binding order to stop the war in Gaza. It also called for Palestinian armed groups to release hostages captured in Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.
U.S. Department of State Official Readout on the UNRWA allegations:
The United States is extremely troubled by the allegations that twelve UNRWA employees may have been involved in the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. The Department of State has temporarily paused additional funding for UNRWA while we review these allegations and the steps the United Nations is taking to address them. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on January 25 to emphasize the necessity of a thorough and swift investigation of this matter.
European Council President Charles Michel abandons plan to run for European Parliament amid fears of role going to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
Looks like the usual suspects are using the ‘separatism’ card again this electoral cycle. You’ll all recall that this same tactic was used in California and in Texas in 2016 albeit a little less visible at the time. Texas is also a particular state. They seceded from Mexico in 1836, and then from the U.S. in 1861. According to Time Magazine:
In the 1990s, Texas’ unique history was nearly cause for another violent conflict, when the “self-declared ‘ambassador, consul-general and chief foreign legal officer’ of the separatist Republic of Texas,” a man named Rick McLaren, led a week-long standoff against state authorities, as TIME reported. McLaren and his followers believed that when Texas became a state in 1845, that was really a hostile takeover of a separate sovereign nation, which meant that the Republic of Texas still existed.
That wasn’t the end: enter the Texas Nationalist Movement. They’re not alone: over the course of the U.S. statehood, New England, New York, New Jersey, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania have all tried to file for divorce to no avail.
Border concerns take over after Trump's primary victories, Ukraine aid in question. Former President Donald Trump's commanding primary victories have brought the race to the brink of a rematch with President Joe Biden, and caused concern that aid for Ukraine is not a priority for Republicans.
CNN: Key US senators agree on border-Ukraine aid deal, to be unveiled next week. U.S. Senate negotiators had agreed on a deal that significantly restricts illegal migrant crossing at the southern border while also unblocking assistance for Ukraine, CNN reported on Jan. 26, citing undisclosed sources.
GOP Senator Thom Tillis slams his “immoral” Republican colleagues for scuttling an immigration-Ukraine aid deal on behalf of Trump:
“I didn’t come here to have the president as a boss or a candidate as a boss. I came here to pass good, solid policy. It is immoral for me to think you looked the other way because you think this is the linchpin for President Trump to win.”
Nikki Haley said she raised $1 million since Trump warned her donors that he would permanently ban them from his orbit if they don’t stop supporting her. Trump is trying to knock her out of the race for the Republican nomination for president before the South Carolina primary, and is furious that she’s still around. Strategists and donors to Haley’s campaign say they feel powerless after failing to stop Trump’s rise. Two thirds of respondents to a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they were “tired of seeing the same candidates” in the 2024 election.
Opinions about Giorgia Meloni vary widely owing to her past in the ranks of the far-right and the fact that many people in her party and the domestic alliances she keeps are also radical. However, she has maintained Italy firmly in the European camp and has not wavered on Italy’s support of NATO and especially, Ukraine. I found Barbara Serra’s comment relevant as published by Fareed Zakaria.
At New Lines Magazine, Barbara Serra shares the concerns of Meloni’s critics, observing that “thousands of far-right activists have been emboldened by seeing her in power” and arguing that Meloni’s mainstreaming is mostly about everyone else having changed. Appearing at a recent right-wing conference in Rome, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak—among Meloni’s friends on the European political stage—blasted illegal immigration in forceful terms. Serra writes, referring to Sunak: “Such language is exactly what used to get Meloni branded ‘extremist.’ … Make no mistake: Giorgia Meloni is a formidable politician. Millions of Italians voted for her because they think she is Italy’s best chance. Many ignore concerns about her radical past and inclinations in the name of pragmatism. The international community seems to be doing the same, seeing Meloni as more mainstream because they need her but also because the very concept of ‘mainstream’ is changing.”
Anders Aslund: How to strangle the Russian economy.
Russia lives on its exports of commodities. 90% of its exports are commodities and 2/3 used to be oil and gas.
Commodities require cheap transportation, shipping or pipelines.
Russia has already lost almost all its 150 bn cubic meters of gas exports to Europe, worth $60-70 bn a year. The dominant gas pipelines go to Europe and Russia produces little LNG. Domestic gas sales remain heavily subsidized so Gazprom can go bankrupt.
Oil has traditionally accounted for more than half of Russia's total exports and it probably still does. The West and Ukraine should focus on minimize Russia's oil export revenues.
From the beginning of 2023, the West imposed a price cap on Russian oil. It worked well during the first half of 2023, but then the prices rose.
The US GOV has successfully traced sanctions breakers and sanctioned many of them. This is proceeding with increasing success.
90% of Russia's oil exports go from two seas, the shallow Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Most of it is now being shipped by a shadow fleet of old, substandard ships with poor or no insurance. This should not be permitted in these environmentally highly sensitive waters.
The Baltic Sea is surrounded by NATO members that care about the environment. They must prohibit the dangerous shadow oil tankers from the Baltic Sea.
This could be done in two choke points, the narrow and shallow Öresund or the Gulf of Finland (Finland and Estonia).
All Russian oil exports from the Black Sea has to pass through Istanbul through the narrow Bosphorus. How can Turkey, which imposes sound environmental restrictions on the Bosphorus, allow any substandard oil tankers to pass through? High time to stop them all!
Ukraine has now started the next step by bombing the refineries and export ports, which are highly concentrated around two cities, St. Petersburg and Novorossiisk. By insisting on being independent from transit countries - and maltreat them - Russia has made itself vulnerable.
Ukraine has bombed one of three major oil ports around St. Petersburg and one in Tuapse near Novorossiisk. It has also bombed several oil depots.
Next, we would expect Ukraine to hit further refineries, depots and export ports in these areas.
After that, Ukraine can proceed upstream and bomb important oil facilities and junctures, which are not as easily repaired as pipelines.
In parallel, the West should prohibit Western oil service companies to work in Russia, notably Schlumberger that still works there fully.
But doesn't the world need Russian oil? Not really. The US is currently producing more oil than any country has ever done, 13.2 million barrels a day and it can easily increase production much further if the administration allows it. This is the right time to hit Russian oil.
Russia’s export revenues are projected to stop at $420 bn (-29% from nearly $600 bn in 2022). Since approximately half of this is oil, Russia's total exports can be slashed to $200 billion with effective oil sanctions and Ukrainian bombing.
Then, Russia is on its knees financially.
I should ad that an important reason why Ukraine can bomb Russian facilities so well is that Ukraine has developed outstanding drone production during the war. The drone producers are many and private. They are the best & the brightest Ukrainians (I know several).