Jan 3: E-Stories
Day678 RUattacks Kyiv Kharkiv Voronezh CombatSit BehindLines InRussia OligarchAllies A&P Khara Zelensky NoelReport Massicot CDSReport FT Fallon Deyermond Keynon Nataliia Braw Brink NATO Christie UAart
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
11pm CET: Russia continues shelling Kharkiv and Donbas.
Halyna Yanchenko: The fourth day in a row of "New Year's attacks" by Russian terrorists. Ukrainian air defense forces repelled 72 missiles, including 10 ballistic “ Kinzhals”. Unfortunately, there were 4 victims again, 92 civilians injured again, residential buildings were hit.
Russia also bombed Syria today. Please remember that on Dec 31st, Putin talked of ‘peace’ and so did his propagandists during the New Years Eve TV special.
Stories we’re following…
In the early morning on Jan 2, Explosions reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia amid Russia's mass attack. Numerous explosions were heard in Kyiv the morning of Jan. 2, Mayor Vitalii Klitschko reported. Ukraine’s Air Force issued an aerial threat warning for all Ukrainian oblasts. Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with 35 Shahed drones. All of them were shot down, the Ukrainian Air Force reports. The video shows what happened during the night.
"Tonight, the enemy actually repeated the attack of December 29, both in terms of the types of missiles and the number of air attack means," Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk reported.
President Zelensky’s statement about the Russian attack. Please note that this is the 4th straight day that Ukraine has been attacked by a devastating barrage of Russian missiles.
"On January 2, 2024, the Russian inhumans struck again. Almost a hundred missiles of various types. At least 70 missiles were shot down. Almost 60 of them are in the Kyiv region. Kharkiv was also hit hard. The liquidation of the consequences is now underway.
Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS - each of these system has already saved at least hundreds of lives. And Russia will be responsible for every life taken.
Glory to Ukraine!"
Noel Report: This is the list of 99 missiles the Russians used to strike Kyiv and other cities during the night and on Tuesday morning. Russia has launched 500 drones and missiles in the past 5 days. Ukrainian air defence shot down:
➡️35/35 Shahed
➡️59/70 Kh101/555/55 air launched
➡️10/10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal
➡️3/3 Kalibr sea launched
➡️?/12 Iskander-M/S-300/S-400 ballistics
➡️?/4 Kh-31P anti-radar
Andriy Kostin, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, said at least 129 people have been injured in Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv on Tuesday—5 deaths have been reported so far.
On X, Kostin said “children and entire families” were among the injured and called the attacks “a blatant act of terrorism.”
This is a Kinzhal missile that went into the river. Russia struck Kyiv and Kharkiv with 10 Kinzhals today.
SBU blocks surveillance cameras hacked by Russia to identify targets in Kyiv. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it dismantled two online surveillance cameras in Kyiv that Russia had hacked and used to record the city's air defenses at work as well as the locations of critical infrastructure during a mass attack on Jan. 2.
Medical Forces: Russian missile damages rehabilitation center for wounded soldiers in Kyiv. During Russia’s mass attack on Kyiv early on Jan. 2, a Russian missile reportedly hit a rehabilitation center for wounded soldiers but didn’t explode.
Svoboda published a video of the destruction in Podilskyi district in Kyiv. In total, about 30 cars were burned due to the missile attack.
Energy workers have restored power for some residents of the Sviatoshynskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Obolonskyi, and Podilskyi districts of Kyiv after the Russian missile attack on Tuesday, the Ukrainian energy company DTEK reported. About 86,000 people remain without electricity in Kyiv and the wider Kyiv region, the energy ministry said, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Three 3 medical institutions in Kharkiv were damaged as a result of missile strikes. Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian aggression more than 1480 medical facilities were damaged, and another 195 were destroyed. In Kharkiv, the aggressors probably struck with an Iskander rather than a Kalibr. The launcher could have been located in the Belgorod region.
In the Voronezh region, a Russian missile did not reach Ukraine and destroyed a village.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, urged faster supplies of air defence systems, combat drones and long-range missiles, the ministry said. It said Kuleba called on Ukraine’s western partners to respond to a new Russian strike on Ukraine by “accelerating the supply of additional air defence systems, combat drones of all types, long-range missiles with a range of 300+ km”.
Following the massive missile attack on Ukraine’s territory, Russian occupation troops actively used reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles.
The relevant statement was made Spokesperson for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yurii Ihnat during a nationwide telethon, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“Immediately after the missile strikes, it is clear that the enemy launches many drones to have a look at the situation, at least on the demarcation line, and conduct aerial reconnaissance. Enemy tactical aircraft are also in service, attacking with unguided missiles, as well as guided bombs and other air weapons,” Ihnat told.
Dara Massicot: Russian forces continue experimenting with missile arrival times, routes, and launch profiles in an attempt to overwhelm missile defenses in Kyiv.
I share the view that Russia has been preparing these strikes for some time— their targeting cycle is still slow and they’ve pooled resources for months. be skeptical of any suggestions this was a “retaliation for Belgorod” or similar, that would only be a Russian PR claim.
Russia had attempted variants of this complex strike last year, when they targeted the Patriot battery in Kyiv. They are trying to exhaust Ukrainian interceptors and systems. Other parts of Ukraine are more exposed.
Combat Situation Update
Over the past day, the number of Russian assault actions in the Kherson region has increased to 18, the spokeswoman for the Press Center of the Southern Defense Forces, Natalia Humeniuk, reported
“The situation in the temporarily occupied areas of the Kherson region is remaining challenging, as the presence of [Ukraine’s] Defense Forces is making the enemy nervous there. They do not stop attempts to storm our positions,” Humeniuk told.
The Khortytsia" OSG forces maintain active defense on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions and are striking at the enemy when opportunities arise.
Russian forces increase their reserves on the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions.
The adversary has increased its activity on the Berdyansk direction, aiming to draw a portion of the "Tavria" OSG reserves away from Avdiivka. However, the current pace of Russian attacks is limited to small-scale positional battles.
"Tavria" OSG is encountering a challenging situation to the west of Robotyne and in the vicinity of Novofedorivka.
On the Kharkiv direction, the role of artillery is increasing. This trend will continue until the enemy establishes conditions conducive to the relatively secure deployment of aviation.
In the near future, the enemy will commence the assault on Novomykhailivka.
The enemy will continue its attempts to break through along the O0532 road towards Pobieda-Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces striking Sevastopol, occupied Crimea yesterday evening. Two loud explosions in Lyubimovka, north of Sevastopol and Simferopol.
In the Donetsk direction, the SOF of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have adjusted HIMARS fire to hit Russia’s Buk surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, as posted in a video by the Special Operations Forces Command on Facebook, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
Units of The Ukrainian State Border Service were reinforced with new ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. The State Border Service said that the guns are used to combat Russian barrage ammunition and other air targets such as drones.
Most of the German supplied Leopard 2A6 tanks are currently in non-combat condition as repairs take more time due to lack of spare parts. "Only a small number of delivered tanks can still be used by Ukraine," said German deputy Sebastian Schäfer.
Before you can shoot at a missile that is not detected by radar, you need to hear and see it
Ukrinform journalists met with the fighters of the anti-aircraft missile and artillery platoon of the 102nd Brigade of the Tank Division just after the massive missile attack that the Russian invaders launched against Ukraine on December 29. The sky guards told how they destroyed the missiles flying towards Dnipro and Ivano-Frankivsk.
If we had shot down everything that was flying at our cities yesterday, I would have been 100% proud. However, to shoot down everything, we need people and weapons. It's real," says a 28-year-old fighter with the pseudonym "Adik." [continue]
Behind the Lines
Theresa Fallon: Yet another graph which demonstrates how China has become Russia’s #ArsenalForAutocracy to aid and support the Kremlin’s brutal war in Ukraine. “Chinese shipments to Russia of an important class of advanced machine tools have increased tenfold since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the country’s producers now dominating trade in high-precision “computer numerical control” devices vital to Moscow’s military industries.”
Turkey said on Tuesday it would not allow two British minehunter ships to transit its waters en route to the Black Sea for use by Ukraine since it would violate an international pact concerning wartime passage of the straits, Reuters reports.
Britain said last month it would transfer two Royal Navy minehunter ships to the Ukrainian navy to help strengthen Ukraine’s sea operations in its war with Russia.
Nato member Turkey informed allies that it would not allow the vessels to use its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits as long as the war in Ukraine continues, said the presidency’s communications directorate.
The decision came after unionised dockworkers refused to unload Russian cargoes at Stanlow, which supplies 16% of UK road fuel, while the government later imposed a ban on imports that might benefit the Kremlin.
Recently filed accounts reveal that the company has extended a credit facility with Litasco, the oil trading division of Moscow-based Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil company. Litasco itself is not subject to sanctions.
Essar Oil (UK) – part of the Essar Group owned by the Indian billionaire Ruia brothers – has a $500m (£393m) “extended payment facility” on crude oil with Litasco, the accounts show.
The agreement is effectively a credit line allowing Essar to buy fuel and pay later.
The two-year deal came to an end in May 2023 but has been extended until June 2024, before the money is paid back under an “unwind and settlement” agreement.
According to the accounts, $320m of a total $500m was due for repayment within 12 months as of the end of March 2023. Repayment will be funded by a combination of profits and new loans.
Ukraine World: This is Viktoriia. She’s in Kyiv and has taken cover in her bathroom. You can hear the booms of the explosions outside. Then the lights go out. Please notice the expression in her eyes.
Meanwhile in Russia
Ukrainska Pravda: The wealth of Russia's richest people increased by more than US$50 billion last year, with Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov becoming the richest, as cited in Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reported by the Russian news outlet Kommersant. Oligarch Vladimir Potanin, the owner of Nornickel, remains the richest Russian, with his wealth increasing by US$2.5 billion to US$31.1 billion. The following Russian oligarchs have become the most wealthy:
Vagit Alekperov, founder of Lukoil, + US$9.29 billion (US$24.7 billion in total);
Andrei Melnichenko, co-founder of Eurochem and SUEK, + US$5.67 billion (US$17.42 billion in total);
NLMK founder Vladimir Lisin, + US$4.08 billion (US$23.9 billion in total);
former Lukoil vice-president Leonid Fedun, + US$3.91 billion (US$9.78 billion in total);
Leonid Mikhelson, NOVATEK's CEO, + US$2.83 billion (US$27.5 billion in total).
The large-scale purchase of Russian drug production plants backfired on the German company Stada with investors from the USA and Britain. One of the largest investors in the pharmaceutical industry of the Russian Federation is moving factories into a separate company and preparing them for sale.
Stada actually left Russia by the end of last year, but did so quietly, by spinning off its Russian business, which, according to international investors, had become toxic, writes Deutsche Welle. “The owners of Stada recently decided to spin off the Russian business of Stada and transfer it into a separate company, which independently and independently operates under the name Nizhpharm,” the press service responded to a request from the dpa agency. The purpose of such a reorganization is quite obvious - sale.
Allied Support
NATO will continue to bolster Ukraine's air defenses – official. NATO Allies strongly condemn Russia's massive missile attacks against Ukraine and are committed to further bolstering Ukraine's air defenses.
France will provide Ukraine with aid it needs to ensure its legitimate defense - statement. France utterly condemns the massive wave of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on January 2, places full responsibility for this escalation on Russia, and vows to support Ukrainian resilience in the future.
Zelensky, Sunak discuss Ukraine's air defenses, long-range capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have discussed further defense cooperation between the two countries, with an emphasis on air defense and the long-range capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Edward Hunter Christie on increasing defence spending:
Aside from Poland, Greece, and the Baltic states, European states are either still below 2% of GDP on defence or only marginally above it. We have 11 months to change this. All should move to 3% by 2025, with budget revisions to 2024 already where possible. This needs to be planned starting right now - with > 30% on major equipment, mobilisation of production, build up of inventories, increases in force size and in readiness -- all while also increasing supplies to Ukraine. Europeans alone must be capable of severely frightening and intimidating Moscow.
This year, 2024, is pivotal for Europe's defence, and progress must be very sizable on both national capabilities and readiness and support to Ukraine. The two challenges are linked. Even in a completely selfish national view by any European country, if Ukraine goes down, we get a triumphant Russia with freed up military might at our door. Hence, the twin goals must be: Ukraine beats Russia heavily with our guns, AND we too have plenty of guns of our own to frighten off what remains of our continent's enemy.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has urged Western partners to immediately give Ukraine more air defence systems following the large-scale Russian missile strike on 2 January, Gitanas Nausėda posted on X, as reported by European Pravda. President Edgars Rinkēvičs of Latvia echoed Nausėda by emphasising the necessity of urgently providing help to Ukraine.
Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić has condemned Russia’s another massive air attack against Ukraine, which took place on the morning of January 2, 2024.
“Russia’s relentless attacks against Ukraine are unacceptable. Intentionally targeting civilians or civilian objects amounts to war crimes and serious violations of international law,” Pejčinović Burić wrote.
Me: Unfortunately the headline in the post is true. The EU didn’t include provisions in the 12th package of sanctions to tighten controls regarding third countries. The lobbyists at the EU must be quite powerful.
The attacks by the Russian Federation on Ukraine are becoming more cynical. Moscow is not interested in peaceful negotiations to resolve the war, states the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
"For anybody believing the rumours that Russia is genuinely interested in peace talks, the record number of drones fired in the last 24 hours at Ukraine show the true intention of Moscow," the statement reads.
Mishel adds that the attacks become even more cynical, especially considering their intensity coinciding with the New Year holidays.
"Ukraine’s spirit cannot be broken. The EU stands by Ukraine," writes the President of the European Council.
About three thousand trucks are queuing at the border between Ukraine and Poland. The directions of three checkpoints are being blocked, reports the State Border Guard Service, Andriy Demchenko.
"The blocking of the Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne, Krakivets-Korczowa, and Yahodyn-Dorogusk checkpoints continues. According to the Polish border guards, as of this morning, 1,620 trucks are queuing in these three directions towards Ukraine, most of them - opposite the Yahodyn and Rava-Ruska checkpoints," the spokesperson informed.
Reuters: All 379 passengers and crew of a Japan Airlines plane escaped a devastating fire that erupted after it collided with a smaller coast guard aircraft at Tokyo's Haneda airport. However, five out of the six crew of the coast guard aircraft died, while the captain escaped, Japan's transport minister said.
At least 48 people were killed after a powerful earthquake hit Japan on New Year's Day. Rescue teams are struggling to reach isolated areas where buildings had been toppled, roads wrecked and power cut to tens of thousands of homes. We have a factbox on major Japanese quakes in the last 30 years.
Five new countries have officially joined and become full members of BRICS, according to Al Arabiya and Africanews: Saudia Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emerites. This is an intergovernmental association, a union of ten states: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia.
China urged the Netherlands to "respect market principles" a day after chip machine maker ASML said the Dutch government had revoked an export license covering the shipment of some of its equipment to China. (Me: ask China how many times it respected market principles. China has engaged in predatory market activity for many many years.)
Ruth Deyermond: What we need to do now
Given some of the reporting of the last week, it’s clear that we’re in for another wave of discussion about whether Ukraine should be pushed to the negotiating table.
I don’t want to focus on the ethics, or otherwise, of trying to pressure Ukraine to make concessions in order to freeze the conflict. Instead, I want to look at the implications of these policies for regional, European, and therefore also US security.
I think it’s very unlikely that Western govts would try to force Ukraine to cede any of its territory to Russia. The sovereignty/territorial integrity principles are too important for their conception of international order (as long as you ignore Kosovo).
It would also be too embarrassing a retreat from the position of the last decade on Crimea and Donbas.
So any peace deal Western partners might try to push Ukraine into signing would involve a pause, not a resolution to the fighting. This would create a frozen conflict. We can be pretty confident that’s what the Russian government is hoping for because it *loves* frozen conflicts.
The term “frozen conflicts” (as far as I know) was coined to refer to conflicts in the Soviet successor states, as they were then described. They were triggered by the breakup of the USSR and, 30 years on, none have been resolved.
What froze the conflicts – what both stopped the fighting and prevented final resolution – was Russian military intervention, referred to by the Russians as peacekeeping (and pretty much everyone else as “peacekeeping”).
Frozen conflicts increase Russian access to the contested territory, allowing it to develop its military presence in areas it considers strategically important and expanding relations of political and economic dependence.
Russian dominance means the Kremlin can shape the conditions under which fighting does or doesn’t resume.
Frozen conflicts perform 3 key functions for Russia.
1. Control over the state in question. For 30 years, this has been one of the two preferred tools of Russian coercion in the region (the other is energy blackmail).
With “peacekeeping” forces in place and Russian political and economic domination of the breakaway region, a frozen conflict acts as a choke chain around the neck of the affected state, to be tightened when that state’s govt needs to be brought into line.
2: It allows for the consolidation and expansion of Russian military presence in the contested territory. This helps advance both defensive and offensive objectives.
It allows Russia to protect what the Kremlin sees as its zone of strategic interest and reclaim what it sees as its military bases (lost when the USSR collapsed).
More importantly from the Western perspective, the expansion of Russia’s military presence in these territories facilitates further invasions and annexations. It allows Russia to build up forces beyond its borders that can then be used to attack further West/South in the future.
For example, the annexation of Crimea created the conditions under which the Feb 22 invasion was possible; the military presence in Abkhazia is allowing Russia to relocate some of the Black Sea Fleet pushed out of Crimea by Ukrainian attacks.
3. Because of 1 and 2, frozen conflicts make Western states and organisations nervous about developing closer ties to the states who have lost control of parts of their territory.
It took an actual full-scale invasion for them to overcome this anxiety (up to a point) and support Ukraine (also up to a point). Keeping the West out is one of Russia’s main objectives in cultivating frozen conflicts.
The lack of a final resolution in frozen conflicts is important from the Russian govt’s perspective. Resolution removes both a coercive tool in relation to the affected state and the uncertainty frightening the West.
The desire to push Ukraine to the negotiating table is deeply misguided. It won't make the war go away, allow Europe to stop worrying about the expansion of the conflict and energy insecurity, or the US to get back to (as some clearly see it) more important business.
It would simply give the Russian govt what it wants – the time to try to recover and to do what it does with frozen conflicts, including consolidate its military forces in occupied Ukrainian regions.
That matters for Westen security because the relationship with Russia is now extremely hostile (arguably worse than any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis) and because it will be taken by the Kremlin as confirmation of Western weakness – that the West has bottled it once again.
That is not a scenario in which the West would be wise to allow Russia the time and space to build up military strength in occupied regions.
And what would it do to the relationship between Ukraine (govt and people) and Western states and institutions? Nothing good.
Again, setting aside the ethical issues, there is an obvious issue of self-interest in maintaining strong relations with Ukraine in an era of extreme Russian hostility to the West.
As frightening, destabilizing, and costly as the war is, an attempt to push Ukraine into agreements that would create a frozen conflict would be more destabilizing, more costly, and more frightening in the long run.
Frozen conflicts are installment plan wars, and the only person who benefits from that model is the vendor: Russia.
Ruth Deyermond is a senior lecturer at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. She specialises in Russian and US foreign and security policy, US-Russia relations, and European security.